Opinion Poll by Zenter, 11–19 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.9% 21.4–24.4% 21.0–24.8% 20.7–25.2% 20.0–26.0%
Píratar 9.2% 17.0% 15.7–18.4% 15.3–18.7% 15.0–19.1% 14.4–19.8%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 15.6% 14.4–16.9% 14.0–17.3% 13.7–17.7% 13.2–18.3%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.2% 9.2–11.4% 8.9–11.7% 8.7–12.0% 8.2–12.5%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.2% 9.2–11.4% 8.9–11.7% 8.7–12.0% 8.2–12.5%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 7.3% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6% 6.0–8.8% 5.6–9.3%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 6.7% 5.9–7.6% 5.6–7.9% 5.4–8.1% 5.1–8.6%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.7% 4.0–5.5% 3.8–5.8% 3.7–6.0% 3.4–6.4%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.3% 2.8–4.1% 2.6–4.3% 2.5–4.5% 2.3–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 15–18 15–18 15–18 14–20
Píratar 6 12 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–14
Samfylkingin 7 11 10–13 10–13 9–13 9–13
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Viðreisn 4 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–6
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.9% 99.9%  
15 19% 98.9%  
16 54% 80% Last Result, Median
17 15% 26%  
18 9% 11%  
19 1.2% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.4% 100%  
10 8% 99.6%  
11 33% 92%  
12 38% 59% Median
13 18% 21%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.2% 100%  
9 3% 99.8%  
10 28% 96%  
11 34% 68% Median
12 20% 34%  
13 14% 14%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.1% 100%  
6 24% 98.9%  
7 58% 75% Median
8 16% 17%  
9 1.0% 1.1%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.8% 100%  
6 23% 99.2%  
7 59% 76% Median
8 16% 16%  
9 0.9% 0.9%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.4% 100%  
4 38% 99.6%  
5 54% 62% Median
6 7% 8%  
7 0.2% 0.3%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.9%  
3 6% 99.7%  
4 55% 94% Median
5 37% 38%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 65% 100% Median
1 1.1% 35%  
2 0% 33%  
3 27% 33%  
4 7% 7% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 37 99.9% 35–38 34–39 34–39 32–39
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 30 5% 28–31 27–32 27–32 26–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 28 0.3% 26–30 26–30 25–30 25–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 27 0% 26–29 25–29 25–30 24–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 27 0% 25–29 25–29 25–29 24–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 25 0% 24–27 23–27 23–28 23–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 23 0% 22–25 21–25 21–26 20–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 22–25 21–25 21–25 20–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 23 0% 21–24 21–25 20–25 20–25
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 22 0% 20–24 20–25 20–25 19–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 21 0% 20–22 19–23 19–23 19–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 20 0% 19–22 19–22 19–23 18–24
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 19 0% 17–20 17–21 16–21 16–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 16–20 16–20 16–20 15–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 16 0% 15–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 12 0% 11–13 10–13 10–13 10–14
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 11 0% 10–12 10–13 9–13 9–14

Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9% Majority
33 1.3% 99.5%  
34 5% 98%  
35 16% 93%  
36 18% 77%  
37 22% 59% Median
38 31% 37%  
39 5% 6%  
40 0.4% 0.5%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.8%  
27 4% 99.0%  
28 16% 95%  
29 18% 78%  
30 21% 61% Median
31 35% 40%  
32 4% 5% Majority
33 0.5% 0.6%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 2% 99.8%  
26 11% 97%  
27 29% 87%  
28 31% 57% Median
29 16% 26%  
30 8% 10%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.3% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0.6% 99.9%  
25 7% 99.4%  
26 21% 93%  
27 28% 71% Median
28 23% 44%  
29 17% 20%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.6%  
25 13% 98%  
26 19% 84%  
27 24% 66% Median
28 26% 42%  
29 14% 16%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 8% 99.5%  
24 14% 91%  
25 43% 78% Median
26 20% 34%  
27 12% 15%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.5% 0.7%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.5% 100%  
21 7% 99.4%  
22 21% 93%  
23 40% 71% Median
24 19% 31%  
25 8% 12%  
26 3% 4%  
27 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.5% 100% Last Result
21 7% 99.4%  
22 18% 92%  
23 42% 74% Median
24 22% 32%  
25 8% 10%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.5% 100%  
20 2% 99.5%  
21 15% 97%  
22 24% 82%  
23 27% 58% Median
24 26% 31%  
25 5% 5%  
26 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 1.2% 99.8%  
20 12% 98.6%  
21 13% 87%  
22 24% 74% Median
23 31% 50%  
24 10% 19%  
25 9% 9% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100%  
19 9% 99.6%  
20 28% 91%  
21 38% 62% Median
22 17% 25%  
23 6% 8%  
24 1.3% 2% Last Result
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.5% 99.8%  
19 16% 98%  
20 34% 83% Median
21 29% 48%  
22 16% 19%  
23 2% 3% Last Result
24 0.6% 0.9%  
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 3% 99.7%  
17 10% 96% Last Result
18 30% 86%  
19 34% 56% Median
20 16% 22%  
21 5% 5%  
22 0.5% 0.5%  
23 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.1% 99.9%  
16 14% 98.8%  
17 17% 85%  
18 30% 69% Last Result, Median
19 26% 38%  
20 12% 13%  
21 0.5% 0.5%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100%  
13 0.5% 99.9%  
14 7% 99.5%  
15 25% 92%  
16 39% 68% Median
17 22% 28%  
18 5% 6%  
19 1.0% 1.0%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100%  
10 6% 99.6%  
11 42% 94%  
12 39% 52% Median
13 12% 14%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 4% 99.9%  
10 18% 96%  
11 38% 78% Median
12 31% 41%  
13 9% 9%  
14 0.6% 0.6%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations