Opinion Poll by Zenter, 11–19 December 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
22.9% |
21.4–24.4% |
21.0–24.8% |
20.7–25.2% |
20.0–26.0% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
17.0% |
15.7–18.4% |
15.3–18.7% |
15.0–19.1% |
14.4–19.8% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
15.6% |
14.4–16.9% |
14.0–17.3% |
13.7–17.7% |
13.2–18.3% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.2% |
9.2–11.4% |
8.9–11.7% |
8.7–12.0% |
8.2–12.5% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.2% |
9.2–11.4% |
8.9–11.7% |
8.7–12.0% |
8.2–12.5% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
7.3% |
6.4–8.3% |
6.2–8.6% |
6.0–8.8% |
5.6–9.3% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
6.7% |
5.9–7.6% |
5.6–7.9% |
5.4–8.1% |
5.1–8.6% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.7% |
4.0–5.5% |
3.8–5.8% |
3.7–6.0% |
3.4–6.4% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
3.3% |
2.8–4.1% |
2.6–4.3% |
2.5–4.5% |
2.3–4.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
19% |
98.9% |
|
16 |
54% |
80% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
15% |
26% |
|
18 |
9% |
11% |
|
19 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
10 |
8% |
99.6% |
|
11 |
33% |
92% |
|
12 |
38% |
59% |
Median |
13 |
18% |
21% |
|
14 |
2% |
2% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
9 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
10 |
28% |
96% |
|
11 |
34% |
68% |
Median |
12 |
20% |
34% |
|
13 |
14% |
14% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
24% |
98.9% |
|
7 |
58% |
75% |
Median |
8 |
16% |
17% |
|
9 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
6 |
23% |
99.2% |
|
7 |
59% |
76% |
Median |
8 |
16% |
16% |
|
9 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
4 |
38% |
99.6% |
|
5 |
54% |
62% |
Median |
6 |
7% |
8% |
|
7 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
6% |
99.7% |
|
4 |
55% |
94% |
Median |
5 |
37% |
38% |
|
6 |
2% |
2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
65% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
1.1% |
35% |
|
2 |
0% |
33% |
|
3 |
27% |
33% |
|
4 |
7% |
7% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
37 |
99.9% |
35–38 |
34–39 |
34–39 |
32–39 |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
30 |
5% |
28–31 |
27–32 |
27–32 |
26–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
28 |
0.3% |
26–30 |
26–30 |
25–30 |
25–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
27 |
0% |
26–29 |
25–29 |
25–30 |
24–30 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
27 |
0% |
25–29 |
25–29 |
25–29 |
24–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
25 |
0% |
24–27 |
23–27 |
23–28 |
23–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–25 |
21–26 |
20–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–25 |
21–25 |
20–26 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–25 |
20–25 |
20–25 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–25 |
20–25 |
19–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
19–23 |
19–23 |
19–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–22 |
19–23 |
18–24 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
19 |
0% |
17–20 |
17–21 |
16–21 |
16–22 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
18 |
0% |
16–20 |
16–20 |
16–20 |
15–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
13–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
12 |
0% |
11–13 |
10–13 |
10–13 |
10–14 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
11 |
0% |
10–12 |
10–13 |
9–13 |
9–14 |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
Majority |
33 |
1.3% |
99.5% |
|
34 |
5% |
98% |
|
35 |
16% |
93% |
|
36 |
18% |
77% |
|
37 |
22% |
59% |
Median |
38 |
31% |
37% |
|
39 |
5% |
6% |
|
40 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
4% |
99.0% |
|
28 |
16% |
95% |
|
29 |
18% |
78% |
|
30 |
21% |
61% |
Median |
31 |
35% |
40% |
|
32 |
4% |
5% |
Majority |
33 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
11% |
97% |
|
27 |
29% |
87% |
|
28 |
31% |
57% |
Median |
29 |
16% |
26% |
|
30 |
8% |
10% |
|
31 |
2% |
2% |
|
32 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
7% |
99.4% |
|
26 |
21% |
93% |
|
27 |
28% |
71% |
Median |
28 |
23% |
44% |
|
29 |
17% |
20% |
|
30 |
3% |
3% |
|
31 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
25 |
13% |
98% |
|
26 |
19% |
84% |
|
27 |
24% |
66% |
Median |
28 |
26% |
42% |
|
29 |
14% |
16% |
|
30 |
2% |
2% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
8% |
99.5% |
|
24 |
14% |
91% |
|
25 |
43% |
78% |
Median |
26 |
20% |
34% |
|
27 |
12% |
15% |
|
28 |
2% |
3% |
|
29 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
21 |
7% |
99.4% |
|
22 |
21% |
93% |
|
23 |
40% |
71% |
Median |
24 |
19% |
31% |
|
25 |
8% |
12% |
|
26 |
3% |
4% |
|
27 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.5% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
7% |
99.4% |
|
22 |
18% |
92% |
|
23 |
42% |
74% |
Median |
24 |
22% |
32% |
|
25 |
8% |
10% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
21 |
15% |
97% |
|
22 |
24% |
82% |
|
23 |
27% |
58% |
Median |
24 |
26% |
31% |
|
25 |
5% |
5% |
|
26 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
12% |
98.6% |
|
21 |
13% |
87% |
|
22 |
24% |
74% |
Median |
23 |
31% |
50% |
|
24 |
10% |
19% |
|
25 |
9% |
9% |
Last Result |
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
19 |
9% |
99.6% |
|
20 |
28% |
91% |
|
21 |
38% |
62% |
Median |
22 |
17% |
25% |
|
23 |
6% |
8% |
|
24 |
1.3% |
2% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
1.5% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
16% |
98% |
|
20 |
34% |
83% |
Median |
21 |
29% |
48% |
|
22 |
16% |
19% |
|
23 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
17 |
10% |
96% |
Last Result |
18 |
30% |
86% |
|
19 |
34% |
56% |
Median |
20 |
16% |
22% |
|
21 |
5% |
5% |
|
22 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
14% |
98.8% |
|
17 |
17% |
85% |
|
18 |
30% |
69% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
26% |
38% |
|
20 |
12% |
13% |
|
21 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
7% |
99.5% |
|
15 |
25% |
92% |
|
16 |
39% |
68% |
Median |
17 |
22% |
28% |
|
18 |
5% |
6% |
|
19 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
10 |
6% |
99.6% |
|
11 |
42% |
94% |
|
12 |
39% |
52% |
Median |
13 |
12% |
14% |
|
14 |
2% |
2% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
18% |
96% |
|
11 |
38% |
78% |
Median |
12 |
31% |
41% |
|
13 |
9% |
9% |
|
14 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Zenter
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 11–19 December 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1320
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.20%