Opinion Poll by Gallup, 1 December 2020–3 January 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
23.7% |
23.0–24.5% |
22.8–24.7% |
22.7–24.9% |
22.3–25.2% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
17.0% |
16.4–17.7% |
16.2–17.9% |
16.1–18.0% |
15.8–18.3% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.9% |
11.4–12.5% |
11.2–12.7% |
11.1–12.8% |
10.9–13.1% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
11.7% |
11.2–12.3% |
11.0–12.4% |
10.9–12.6% |
10.7–12.8% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.0% |
9.5–10.5% |
9.4–10.7% |
9.3–10.8% |
9.0–11.1% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
9.1% |
8.6–9.6% |
8.5–9.8% |
8.4–9.9% |
8.2–10.1% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
8.3% |
7.8–8.8% |
7.7–8.9% |
7.6–9.1% |
7.4–9.3% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.3% |
4.0–4.7% |
3.9–4.8% |
3.8–4.9% |
3.7–5.0% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
3.8% |
3.5–4.2% |
3.4–4.3% |
3.3–4.3% |
3.2–4.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
28% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
17 |
70% |
72% |
Median |
18 |
2% |
2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
29% |
100% |
|
12 |
70% |
71% |
Median |
13 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
2% |
100% |
|
8 |
87% |
98% |
Median |
9 |
12% |
12% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
8% |
100% |
|
8 |
85% |
92% |
Median |
9 |
7% |
7% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
18% |
100% |
|
7 |
81% |
82% |
Median |
8 |
2% |
2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
95% |
98.9% |
Median |
7 |
4% |
4% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
44% |
100% |
|
6 |
56% |
56% |
Median |
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.6% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
35 |
100% |
34–35 |
34–36 |
34–36 |
33–36 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
33 |
31 |
32% |
31–32 |
31–32 |
31–32 |
30–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
30 |
0.3% |
29–31 |
29–31 |
29–31 |
28–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
31 |
28 |
0% |
28–29 |
27–29 |
27–29 |
27–30 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
28 |
0% |
27–29 |
27–29 |
27–29 |
26–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
29 |
0% |
28–29 |
27–29 |
27–29 |
27–30 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
26 |
0% |
25–26 |
25–26 |
25–27 |
25–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
25 |
0% |
25–26 |
25–26 |
24–26 |
24–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
25 |
0% |
24–25 |
24–25 |
24–26 |
23–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
24 |
0% |
23–24 |
23–24 |
23–24 |
22–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
23 |
0% |
22–23 |
22–23 |
22–24 |
22–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–23 |
21–23 |
21–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
20 |
0% |
19–20 |
19–21 |
19–21 |
18–21 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
20 |
0% |
19–20 |
19–20 |
19–21 |
19–21 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
16 |
0% |
16–17 |
15–17 |
15–17 |
15–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
14 |
0% |
13–14 |
13–15 |
13–15 |
12–15 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
14 |
0% |
14 |
13–15 |
13–15 |
13–15 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
100% |
Majority |
33 |
1.5% |
99.9% |
|
34 |
40% |
98% |
|
35 |
50% |
59% |
Median |
36 |
8% |
9% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
66% |
98% |
|
32 |
31% |
32% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
Last Result |
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
29 |
10% |
99.1% |
|
30 |
48% |
89% |
|
31 |
41% |
41% |
Median |
32 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
9% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
50% |
91% |
|
29 |
40% |
41% |
Median |
30 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
27 |
28% |
99.5% |
|
28 |
61% |
72% |
Median |
29 |
10% |
10% |
|
30 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
7% |
100% |
|
28 |
41% |
93% |
|
29 |
50% |
52% |
Median |
30 |
2% |
2% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
25 |
29% |
99.6% |
Last Result |
26 |
65% |
70% |
Median |
27 |
5% |
5% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
66% |
97% |
|
26 |
30% |
31% |
Last Result, Median |
27 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
2% |
100% |
|
24 |
25% |
98% |
|
25 |
70% |
73% |
Median |
26 |
3% |
3% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
100% |
|
23 |
40% |
98% |
|
24 |
57% |
58% |
Median |
25 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
22 |
26% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
71% |
74% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
3% |
3% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
11% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
49% |
89% |
|
23 |
39% |
40% |
Median |
24 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
19 |
46% |
99.3% |
|
20 |
47% |
53% |
Median |
21 |
6% |
6% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.4% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
30% |
99.6% |
|
20 |
66% |
69% |
Median |
21 |
3% |
3% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
7% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
77% |
93% |
Median |
17 |
16% |
16% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
13 |
47% |
98.7% |
|
14 |
47% |
52% |
Median |
15 |
5% |
5% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
13 |
7% |
99.7% |
|
14 |
83% |
93% |
Median |
15 |
10% |
10% |
|
16 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 1 December 2020–3 January 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 5643
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.58%