Opinion Poll by Gallup, 1 December 2020–3 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.7% 23.0–24.5% 22.8–24.7% 22.7–24.9% 22.3–25.2%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 17.0% 16.4–17.7% 16.2–17.9% 16.1–18.0% 15.8–18.3%
Píratar 9.2% 11.9% 11.4–12.5% 11.2–12.7% 11.1–12.8% 10.9–13.1%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.7% 11.2–12.3% 11.0–12.4% 10.9–12.6% 10.7–12.8%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.0% 9.5–10.5% 9.4–10.7% 9.3–10.8% 9.0–11.1%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 9.1% 8.6–9.6% 8.5–9.8% 8.4–9.9% 8.2–10.1%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.3% 7.8–8.8% 7.7–8.9% 7.6–9.1% 7.4–9.3%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.3% 4.0–4.7% 3.9–4.8% 3.8–4.9% 3.7–5.0%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.8% 3.5–4.2% 3.4–4.3% 3.3–4.3% 3.2–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 16–17 16–17 16–17 16–18
Samfylkingin 7 12 11–12 11–12 11–12 11–13
Píratar 6 8 8–9 8–9 8–9 7–9
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 8 7–9 7–9 7–9
Viðreisn 4 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Miðflokkurinn 7 6 6 6 6–7 5–7
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 28% 99.7% Last Result
17 70% 72% Median
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 29% 100%  
12 70% 71% Median
13 1.2% 1.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 2% 100%  
8 87% 98% Median
9 12% 12%  
10 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 8% 100%  
8 85% 92% Median
9 7% 7%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 18% 100%  
7 81% 82% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.1% 100%  
6 95% 98.9% Median
7 4% 4% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 44% 100%  
6 56% 56% Median
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 35 100% 34–35 34–36 34–36 33–36
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 33 31 32% 31–32 31–32 31–32 30–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 30 0.3% 29–31 29–31 29–31 28–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 31 28 0% 28–29 27–29 27–29 27–30
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 28 0% 27–29 27–29 27–29 26–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 29 0% 28–29 27–29 27–29 27–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 26 0% 25–26 25–26 25–27 25–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 25–26 25–26 24–26 24–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 24–25 24–25 24–26 23–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 24 0% 23–24 23–24 23–24 22–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 22–23 22–23 22–24 22–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 22 0% 21–23 21–23 21–23 21–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 20 0% 19–20 19–21 19–21 18–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 20 0% 19–20 19–20 19–21 19–21
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 16 0% 16–17 15–17 15–17 15–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 14 0% 13–14 13–15 13–15 12–15
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 14 0% 14 13–15 13–15 13–15

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100% Majority
33 1.5% 99.9%  
34 40% 98%  
35 50% 59% Median
36 8% 9%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 2% 99.9%  
31 66% 98%  
32 31% 32% Median, Majority
33 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.9% 100%  
29 10% 99.1%  
30 48% 89%  
31 41% 41% Median
32 0.3% 0.3% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 9% 99.9%  
28 50% 91%  
29 40% 41% Median
30 1.2% 1.2%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0.5% 100%  
27 28% 99.5%  
28 61% 72% Median
29 10% 10%  
30 0.4% 0.4%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 7% 100%  
28 41% 93%  
29 50% 52% Median
30 2% 2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100%  
25 29% 99.6% Last Result
26 65% 70% Median
27 5% 5%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 3% 99.9%  
25 66% 97%  
26 30% 31% Last Result, Median
27 0.5% 0.5%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 2% 100%  
24 25% 98%  
25 70% 73% Median
26 3% 3%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 2% 100%  
23 40% 98%  
24 57% 58% Median
25 1.3% 1.3%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 26% 99.8%  
23 71% 74% Last Result, Median
24 3% 3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 11% 99.9%  
22 49% 89%  
23 39% 40% Median
24 0.9% 0.9% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.7% 100%  
19 46% 99.3%  
20 47% 53% Median
21 6% 6%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100% Last Result
19 30% 99.6%  
20 66% 69% Median
21 3% 3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 7% 99.9%  
16 77% 93% Median
17 16% 16% Last Result
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 1.3% 100%  
13 47% 98.7%  
14 47% 52% Median
15 5% 5%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 7% 99.7%  
14 83% 93% Median
15 10% 10%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations