Opinion Poll by MMR, 30 December 2020–11 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 24.4% 23.2–25.6% 22.8–26.0% 22.5–26.3% 22.0–26.9%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 15.6% 14.6–16.7% 14.3–17.0% 14.1–17.2% 13.6–17.8%
Píratar 9.2% 12.3% 11.4–13.3% 11.1–13.6% 10.9–13.8% 10.5–14.3%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.9% 10.0–11.8% 9.8–12.1% 9.6–12.3% 9.2–12.8%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 9.1% 8.3–10.0% 8.1–10.2% 7.9–10.4% 7.5–10.9%
Viðreisn 6.7% 8.8% 8.0–9.7% 7.8–9.9% 7.6–10.1% 7.3–10.5%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 8.6% 7.8–9.4% 7.6–9.7% 7.4–9.9% 7.1–10.3%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.9% 4.3–5.6% 4.2–5.8% 4.0–5.9% 3.8–6.3%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 4.4% 3.9–5.0% 3.7–5.2% 3.6–5.4% 3.3–5.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 18 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–19
Samfylkingin 7 11 10–12 10–12 9–12 9–12
Píratar 6 8 8–9 7–9 7–9 7–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–8 6–8 6–9 6–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Viðreisn 4 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Miðflokkurinn 7 6 5–6 5–6 4–7 4–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 2% 100%  
16 17% 98% Last Result
17 30% 81%  
18 38% 51% Median
19 13% 13%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.1% 100%  
9 4% 99.9%  
10 34% 96%  
11 52% 62% Median
12 10% 11%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100% Last Result
7 7% 99.8%  
8 55% 93% Median
9 37% 38%  
10 1.4% 1.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 8% 100%  
7 41% 92%  
8 48% 51% Median
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 13% 99.9%  
6 72% 87% Median
7 13% 15%  
8 2% 2% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100% Last Result
5 24% 99.8%  
6 67% 76% Median
7 9% 9%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 37% 97%  
6 56% 61% Median
7 5% 5% Last Result
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Median
1 0% 40%  
2 0% 40%  
3 35% 40%  
4 4% 4% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 11% 11%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 33 69% 30–34 30–34 29–35 29–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 31 38% 29–32 29–32 28–33 28–33
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 30 10% 28–31 27–32 27–32 26–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 29 1.0% 28–30 27–31 27–31 26–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 28 0% 27–29 26–30 26–30 25–31
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 27 0% 25–28 24–28 24–29 23–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 23–26 23–26 23–26 22–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 22–26 22–26 22–26 21–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 24 0% 22–25 21–26 21–26 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 24 0% 22–25 22–25 21–25 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 22–24 21–25 21–25 20–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 22–24 21–25 21–25 20–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 19 0% 18–20 17–21 16–21 16–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 18 0% 17–19 16–20 16–20 15–20
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 16 0% 15–17 14–17 14–17 13–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 14 0% 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–16
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 13 0% 12–14 11–14 11–15 10–15

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
29 3% 99.5%  
30 9% 96%  
31 19% 88%  
32 18% 69% Majority
33 25% 51% Median
34 22% 26%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 3% 99.9%  
29 11% 97%  
30 19% 86%  
31 29% 67%  
32 35% 38% Median, Majority
33 3% 4%  
34 0.4% 0.4%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 2% 99.8%  
27 6% 98%  
28 14% 93%  
29 16% 79%  
30 24% 63%  
31 29% 39% Median
32 9% 10% Majority
33 1.0% 1.1% Last Result
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 2% 99.9%  
27 5% 98%  
28 19% 93%  
29 38% 74%  
30 29% 36% Median
31 6% 7% Last Result
32 0.9% 1.0% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0.9% 100%  
26 9% 99.0%  
27 19% 90%  
28 28% 71%  
29 35% 43% Median
30 7% 8%  
31 1.0% 1.0%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.7% 99.8%  
24 7% 99.1% Last Result
25 18% 92%  
26 20% 74%  
27 28% 54% Median
28 23% 26%  
29 3% 3%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 1.4% 99.9%  
23 13% 98.6%  
24 19% 86%  
25 32% 67%  
26 32% 35% Median
27 2% 2% Last Result
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 8% 98%  
23 20% 90%  
24 20% 70%  
25 37% 49% Median
26 10% 12% Last Result
27 1.4% 2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.8% 100%  
21 4% 99.2%  
22 15% 95%  
23 19% 80%  
24 26% 61%  
25 28% 35% Last Result, Median
26 6% 7%  
27 0.6% 0.6%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 4% 99.9%  
22 15% 96%  
23 28% 82%  
24 40% 54% Last Result, Median
25 12% 14%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 1.0% 100%  
21 6% 98.9%  
22 19% 93%  
23 41% 74% Last Result
24 28% 33% Median
25 5% 5%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.6% 100% Last Result
21 6% 99.4%  
22 17% 93%  
23 27% 76%  
24 40% 49% Median
25 9% 9%  
26 0.5% 0.5%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.8%  
17 7% 97%  
18 16% 90%  
19 31% 74%  
20 35% 43% Median
21 8% 8%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.5% 100%  
16 6% 99.5%  
17 23% 93%  
18 26% 70% Last Result
19 37% 45% Median
20 7% 7%  
21 0.5% 0.5%  
22 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.7% 99.9%  
14 8% 99.2%  
15 30% 91%  
16 37% 62% Median
17 23% 25% Last Result
18 2% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 2% 100%  
12 11% 98%  
13 30% 87%  
14 47% 56% Median
15 8% 9%  
16 0.8% 0.8%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.6% 100%  
11 6% 99.4%  
12 21% 93%  
13 34% 73%  
14 35% 39% Median
15 4% 4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations