Opinion Poll by Gallup, 6–31 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.7% 21.9–23.5% 21.7–23.7% 21.5–23.9% 21.1–24.3%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 16.6% 15.9–17.3% 15.7–17.5% 15.6–17.7% 15.2–18.0%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.8% 12.2–13.4% 12.0–13.6% 11.9–13.8% 11.6–14.1%
Viðreisn 6.7% 11.7% 11.1–12.3% 10.9–12.5% 10.8–12.6% 10.5–12.9%
Píratar 9.2% 11.1% 10.5–11.7% 10.4–11.9% 10.2–12.0% 10.0–12.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 9.5% 8.9–10.1% 8.8–10.2% 8.7–10.4% 8.4–10.6%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 8.0% 7.5–8.5% 7.4–8.7% 7.3–8.8% 7.0–9.1%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.9% 3.6–4.3% 3.5–4.4% 3.4–4.5% 3.2–4.7%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.8% 3.5–4.2% 3.4–4.3% 3.3–4.4% 3.1–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 15–16 15–16 15–17 15–17
Samfylkingin 7 12 11–12 10–12 10–12 10–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 8–9 8–10 8–10 8–10
Viðreisn 4 8 7–8 7–8 7–9 7–9
Píratar 6 7 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–7
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 23% 99.8%  
16 73% 77% Last Result, Median
17 4% 4%  
18 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 5% 100%  
11 39% 95%  
12 56% 56% Median
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 23% 100%  
9 69% 77% Median
10 9% 9%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 12% 100%  
8 83% 88% Median
9 4% 4%  
10 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 62% 100% Median
8 38% 38%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100%  
6 71% 99.3% Median
7 28% 28%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.4% 100%  
5 75% 99.6% Median
6 24% 24%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar 28 36 100% 35–36 35–36 35–37 34–37
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 32 72% 31–33 31–33 31–33 30–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 31 9% 30–31 30–32 30–32 29–32
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 28 0% 27–29 27–29 27–29 26–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 27 0% 27–28 27–28 26–28 26–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 28 0% 26–28 26–28 26–28 26–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 27 0% 26–27 25–27 25–28 25–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 26 0% 25–26 25–26 25–27 24–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 24–25 24–26 24–26 24–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 24 0% 23–24 23–25 23–25 22–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 22 0% 22–23 21–23 21–23 21–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 21 0% 21–22 20–22 20–22 20–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 20 0% 19–22 19–22 19–22 19–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 20 0% 20–21 19–21 19–21 19–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 16 0% 15–17 15–17 15–17 15–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 15 0% 14–16 14–16 14–16 14–16
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 14 0% 13–15 13–15 13–15 13–16

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100% Majority
33 0.1% 100%  
34 1.4% 99.9%  
35 35% 98.6%  
36 59% 64% Median
37 4% 4%  
38 0.4% 0.4%  
39 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 2% 100%  
31 26% 98%  
32 55% 72% Median, Majority
33 17% 18% Last Result
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.6% 100%  
30 13% 99.4%  
31 77% 86% Median
32 9% 9% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 1.3% 100%  
27 36% 98.6%  
28 49% 63% Median
29 14% 14%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.4% 100%  
26 4% 99.6%  
27 59% 96% Median
28 35% 36%  
29 1.4% 1.4%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 22% 100%  
27 25% 78%  
28 52% 53% Median
29 1.1% 1.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 8% 100%  
26 23% 92% Last Result
27 67% 70% Median
28 3% 3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 2% 99.9%  
25 39% 98% Last Result
26 54% 59% Median
27 5% 5%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 39% 99.6%  
25 53% 61% Median
26 8% 8%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0.6% 100%  
23 33% 99.4%  
24 60% 67% Median
25 7% 7%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.5% 100%  
21 8% 99.5%  
22 74% 92% Median
23 17% 17%  
24 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 7% 99.8%  
21 81% 93% Median
22 12% 12%  
23 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 10% 100%  
20 54% 90% Median
21 22% 35%  
22 13% 13%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100% Last Result
19 9% 99.9%  
20 46% 91%  
21 43% 45% Median
22 2% 2%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 13% 100%  
16 51% 87% Median
17 36% 36% Last Result
18 0.9% 0.9%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 11% 100%  
15 64% 89% Median
16 25% 25%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 21% 99.9%  
14 49% 79% Median
15 30% 30%  
16 0.7% 0.7%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations