Opinion Poll by Gallup, 6–31 January 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
22.7% |
21.9–23.5% |
21.7–23.7% |
21.5–23.9% |
21.1–24.3% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
16.6% |
15.9–17.3% |
15.7–17.5% |
15.6–17.7% |
15.2–18.0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
12.8% |
12.2–13.4% |
12.0–13.6% |
11.9–13.8% |
11.6–14.1% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
11.7% |
11.1–12.3% |
10.9–12.5% |
10.8–12.6% |
10.5–12.9% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.1% |
10.5–11.7% |
10.4–11.9% |
10.2–12.0% |
10.0–12.3% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
9.5% |
8.9–10.1% |
8.8–10.2% |
8.7–10.4% |
8.4–10.6% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
8.0% |
7.5–8.5% |
7.4–8.7% |
7.3–8.8% |
7.0–9.1% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
3.9% |
3.6–4.3% |
3.5–4.4% |
3.4–4.5% |
3.2–4.7% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
3.8% |
3.5–4.2% |
3.4–4.3% |
3.3–4.4% |
3.1–4.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
15 |
23% |
99.8% |
|
16 |
73% |
77% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
4% |
4% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
5% |
100% |
|
11 |
39% |
95% |
|
12 |
56% |
56% |
Median |
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
23% |
100% |
|
9 |
69% |
77% |
Median |
10 |
9% |
9% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
12% |
100% |
|
8 |
83% |
88% |
Median |
9 |
4% |
4% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
62% |
100% |
Median |
8 |
38% |
38% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
6 |
71% |
99.3% |
Median |
7 |
28% |
28% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
5 |
75% |
99.6% |
Median |
6 |
24% |
24% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar |
28 |
36 |
100% |
35–36 |
35–36 |
35–37 |
34–37 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
32 |
72% |
31–33 |
31–33 |
31–33 |
30–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
31 |
9% |
30–31 |
30–32 |
30–32 |
29–32 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
28 |
0% |
27–29 |
27–29 |
27–29 |
26–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
27 |
0% |
27–28 |
27–28 |
26–28 |
26–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
28 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–28 |
26–28 |
26–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
27 |
0% |
26–27 |
25–27 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
26 |
0% |
25–26 |
25–26 |
25–27 |
24–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
25 |
0% |
24–25 |
24–26 |
24–26 |
24–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
24 |
0% |
23–24 |
23–25 |
23–25 |
22–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
22 |
0% |
22–23 |
21–23 |
21–23 |
21–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
21 |
0% |
21–22 |
20–22 |
20–22 |
20–22 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–22 |
19–22 |
19–22 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
20 |
0% |
20–21 |
19–21 |
19–21 |
19–22 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
15–17 |
15–17 |
15–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
15 |
0% |
14–16 |
14–16 |
14–16 |
14–16 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
14 |
0% |
13–15 |
13–15 |
13–15 |
13–16 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
34 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
35 |
35% |
98.6% |
|
36 |
59% |
64% |
Median |
37 |
4% |
4% |
|
38 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
2% |
100% |
|
31 |
26% |
98% |
|
32 |
55% |
72% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
17% |
18% |
Last Result |
34 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
30 |
13% |
99.4% |
|
31 |
77% |
86% |
Median |
32 |
9% |
9% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
27 |
36% |
98.6% |
|
28 |
49% |
63% |
Median |
29 |
14% |
14% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
26 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
27 |
59% |
96% |
Median |
28 |
35% |
36% |
|
29 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
22% |
100% |
|
27 |
25% |
78% |
|
28 |
52% |
53% |
Median |
29 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
8% |
100% |
|
26 |
23% |
92% |
Last Result |
27 |
67% |
70% |
Median |
28 |
3% |
3% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
39% |
98% |
Last Result |
26 |
54% |
59% |
Median |
27 |
5% |
5% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
24 |
39% |
99.6% |
|
25 |
53% |
61% |
Median |
26 |
8% |
8% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
23 |
33% |
99.4% |
|
24 |
60% |
67% |
Median |
25 |
7% |
7% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
21 |
8% |
99.5% |
|
22 |
74% |
92% |
Median |
23 |
17% |
17% |
|
24 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
7% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
81% |
93% |
Median |
22 |
12% |
12% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
10% |
100% |
|
20 |
54% |
90% |
Median |
21 |
22% |
35% |
|
22 |
13% |
13% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
19 |
9% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
46% |
91% |
|
21 |
43% |
45% |
Median |
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
13% |
100% |
|
16 |
51% |
87% |
Median |
17 |
36% |
36% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
11% |
100% |
|
15 |
64% |
89% |
Median |
16 |
25% |
25% |
|
17 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
21% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
49% |
79% |
Median |
15 |
30% |
30% |
|
16 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–31 January 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 4640
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.85%