Opinion Poll by MMR, 12–18 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.2% 20.5–24.0% 20.0–24.6% 19.6–25.0% 18.8–25.9%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 13.5% 12.1–15.0% 11.8–15.5% 11.4–15.9% 10.8–16.6%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 13.2% 11.8–14.7% 11.4–15.1% 11.1–15.5% 10.5–16.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 11.4% 10.2–12.9% 9.8–13.3% 9.5–13.6% 9.0–14.4%
Píratar 9.2% 11.4% 10.2–12.9% 9.8–13.3% 9.5–13.6% 9.0–14.4%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.7% 9.4–12.1% 9.1–12.5% 8.8–12.8% 8.3–13.5%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 8.1% 7.0–9.3% 6.7–9.7% 6.5–10.0% 6.0–10.6%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.4% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.1%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.8% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–12
Samfylkingin 7 9 8–10 8–10 7–11 7–11
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–11
Píratar 6 8 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–10
Viðreisn 4 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–9
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 15% 98%  
15 24% 83%  
16 29% 59% Last Result, Median
17 22% 30%  
18 6% 7%  
19 0.8% 0.8%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 1.0% 100%  
8 16% 98.9%  
9 38% 83% Median
10 37% 46%  
11 8% 8% Last Result
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 3% 99.9% Last Result
8 24% 97%  
9 47% 73% Median
10 22% 26%  
11 4% 4%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9%  
7 17% 97%  
8 58% 80% Last Result, Median
9 12% 22%  
10 9% 10%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 4% 99.8% Last Result
7 33% 95%  
8 44% 62% Median
9 16% 18%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.7% 100%  
6 20% 99.3%  
7 47% 79% Median
8 25% 33%  
9 7% 8%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 6% 99.9%  
5 52% 93% Median
6 33% 41%  
7 8% 8% Last Result
8 0.2% 0.3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 8% 9%  
4 1.4% 1.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 0.1% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 33 91% 32–35 31–36 31–37 29–37
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 33 88% 31–35 31–35 30–36 29–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 32 61% 30–34 30–34 29–35 28–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 29 6% 27–31 27–32 26–32 26–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 26 0% 25–28 24–29 24–29 23–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 24 26 0% 24–28 24–28 24–29 23–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 23–27 22–27 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 23–27 23–27 22–27 21–28
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 23 0% 21–25 21–25 21–26 20–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 24 0% 22–25 21–26 21–26 20–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 24 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 21–24 21–25 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 21 0% 19–23 19–23 19–24 18–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 18 0% 17–20 16–20 16–21 15–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 17 0% 16–19 16–19 15–20 14–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 17 0% 16–19 15–19 15–19 14–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 15 0% 13–16 13–16 13–17 12–18

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100% Last Result
29 0.5% 99.8%  
30 2% 99.3%  
31 7% 98%  
32 19% 91% Majority
33 29% 72% Median
34 22% 43%  
35 12% 21%  
36 6% 9%  
37 3% 3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.5%  
31 10% 97%  
32 17% 88% Majority
33 22% 71% Median
34 32% 49%  
35 14% 16% Last Result
36 3% 3%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.4%  
30 12% 97%  
31 23% 84% Median
32 28% 61% Majority
33 21% 33% Last Result
34 9% 12%  
35 3% 3%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 4% 99.6%  
27 8% 95%  
28 16% 87%  
29 23% 71% Median
30 27% 49%  
31 15% 21% Last Result
32 5% 6% Majority
33 0.7% 0.8%  
34 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.9% 99.9%  
24 5% 99.0%  
25 15% 94%  
26 30% 79% Last Result, Median
27 29% 48%  
28 14% 19%  
29 4% 5%  
30 0.7% 0.9%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.4% 100%  
23 2% 99.6%  
24 8% 98% Last Result
25 18% 89%  
26 33% 72% Median
27 23% 38%  
28 11% 15%  
29 4% 4%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.9% 99.9%  
22 4% 99.0%  
23 15% 95% Last Result
24 21% 80%  
25 25% 59% Median
26 24% 34%  
27 9% 11%  
28 1.0% 1.2%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.5% 100%  
22 2% 99.5%  
23 9% 97%  
24 19% 88%  
25 26% 69% Median
26 29% 43%  
27 13% 15% Last Result
28 2% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 2% 99.6%  
21 10% 98%  
22 30% 88% Median
23 25% 58%  
24 22% 32%  
25 8% 10%  
26 3% 3% Last Result
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.9%  
21 6% 99.4%  
22 10% 94%  
23 20% 83%  
24 28% 63% Last Result, Median
25 26% 35%  
26 8% 10%  
27 1.5% 2%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 2% 99.5%  
22 13% 97%  
23 28% 84% Median
24 26% 57%  
25 21% 31% Last Result
26 7% 10%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.5% 100%  
20 2% 99.5% Last Result
21 10% 97%  
22 18% 87%  
23 36% 69% Median
24 23% 33%  
25 8% 10%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 2% 99.8%  
19 11% 98%  
20 20% 87%  
21 21% 67% Median
22 28% 47%  
23 15% 19% Last Result
24 3% 4%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.5% 100%  
16 5% 99.4%  
17 16% 95%  
18 32% 78% Last Result, Median
19 32% 46%  
20 11% 15%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.5% 100%  
15 3% 99.5%  
16 19% 97%  
17 31% 78% Median
18 26% 47%  
19 18% 21% Last Result
20 2% 3%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.9%  
15 6% 99.2%  
16 23% 93%  
17 32% 70% Last Result, Median
18 26% 38%  
19 11% 13%  
20 1.3% 1.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 1.2% 99.8%  
13 9% 98.6%  
14 32% 90% Median
15 28% 58%  
16 25% 29%  
17 4% 5%  
18 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations