Opinion Poll by MMR, 12–18 February 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
22.2% |
20.5–24.0% |
20.0–24.6% |
19.6–25.0% |
18.8–25.9% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
13.5% |
12.1–15.0% |
11.8–15.5% |
11.4–15.9% |
10.8–16.6% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
13.2% |
11.8–14.7% |
11.4–15.1% |
11.1–15.5% |
10.5–16.3% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
11.4% |
10.2–12.9% |
9.8–13.3% |
9.5–13.6% |
9.0–14.4% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.4% |
10.2–12.9% |
9.8–13.3% |
9.5–13.6% |
9.0–14.4% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.7% |
9.4–12.1% |
9.1–12.5% |
8.8–12.8% |
8.3–13.5% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
8.1% |
7.0–9.3% |
6.7–9.7% |
6.5–10.0% |
6.0–10.6% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
4.1% |
3.4–5.1% |
3.2–5.4% |
3.0–5.6% |
2.7–6.1% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
3.6% |
2.9–4.5% |
2.7–4.8% |
2.6–5.0% |
2.3–5.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
15% |
98% |
|
15 |
24% |
83% |
|
16 |
29% |
59% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
22% |
30% |
|
18 |
6% |
7% |
|
19 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
8 |
16% |
98.9% |
|
9 |
38% |
83% |
Median |
10 |
37% |
46% |
|
11 |
8% |
8% |
Last Result |
12 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
3% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
8 |
24% |
97% |
|
9 |
47% |
73% |
Median |
10 |
22% |
26% |
|
11 |
4% |
4% |
|
12 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
17% |
97% |
|
8 |
58% |
80% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
12% |
22% |
|
10 |
9% |
10% |
|
11 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
6 |
4% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
7 |
33% |
95% |
|
8 |
44% |
62% |
Median |
9 |
16% |
18% |
|
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
6 |
20% |
99.3% |
|
7 |
47% |
79% |
Median |
8 |
25% |
33% |
|
9 |
7% |
8% |
|
10 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
52% |
93% |
Median |
6 |
33% |
41% |
|
7 |
8% |
8% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
91% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
9% |
|
2 |
0% |
9% |
|
3 |
8% |
9% |
|
4 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
2 |
0% |
2% |
|
3 |
2% |
2% |
|
4 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
33 |
91% |
32–35 |
31–36 |
31–37 |
29–37 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
33 |
88% |
31–35 |
31–35 |
30–36 |
29–36 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
32 |
61% |
30–34 |
30–34 |
29–35 |
28–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
6% |
27–31 |
27–32 |
26–32 |
26–33 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
26 |
0% |
25–28 |
24–29 |
24–29 |
23–30 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar |
24 |
26 |
0% |
24–28 |
24–28 |
24–29 |
23–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
25 |
0% |
23–27 |
22–27 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
25 |
0% |
23–27 |
23–27 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
23 |
0% |
21–25 |
21–25 |
21–26 |
20–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
24 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–26 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
24 |
0% |
22–25 |
22–26 |
21–26 |
21–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
21 |
0% |
19–23 |
19–23 |
19–24 |
18–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
18 |
18 |
0% |
17–20 |
16–20 |
16–21 |
15–21 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
17 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–19 |
15–20 |
14–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
17 |
0% |
16–19 |
15–19 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
15 |
0% |
13–16 |
13–16 |
13–17 |
12–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
31 |
7% |
98% |
|
32 |
19% |
91% |
Majority |
33 |
29% |
72% |
Median |
34 |
22% |
43% |
|
35 |
12% |
21% |
|
36 |
6% |
9% |
|
37 |
3% |
3% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
31 |
10% |
97% |
|
32 |
17% |
88% |
Majority |
33 |
22% |
71% |
Median |
34 |
32% |
49% |
|
35 |
14% |
16% |
Last Result |
36 |
3% |
3% |
|
37 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
30 |
12% |
97% |
|
31 |
23% |
84% |
Median |
32 |
28% |
61% |
Majority |
33 |
21% |
33% |
Last Result |
34 |
9% |
12% |
|
35 |
3% |
3% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
27 |
8% |
95% |
|
28 |
16% |
87% |
|
29 |
23% |
71% |
Median |
30 |
27% |
49% |
|
31 |
15% |
21% |
Last Result |
32 |
5% |
6% |
Majority |
33 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
5% |
99.0% |
|
25 |
15% |
94% |
|
26 |
30% |
79% |
Last Result, Median |
27 |
29% |
48% |
|
28 |
14% |
19% |
|
29 |
4% |
5% |
|
30 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
23 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
24 |
8% |
98% |
Last Result |
25 |
18% |
89% |
|
26 |
33% |
72% |
Median |
27 |
23% |
38% |
|
28 |
11% |
15% |
|
29 |
4% |
4% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
4% |
99.0% |
|
23 |
15% |
95% |
Last Result |
24 |
21% |
80% |
|
25 |
25% |
59% |
Median |
26 |
24% |
34% |
|
27 |
9% |
11% |
|
28 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
23 |
9% |
97% |
|
24 |
19% |
88% |
|
25 |
26% |
69% |
Median |
26 |
29% |
43% |
|
27 |
13% |
15% |
Last Result |
28 |
2% |
2% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
21 |
10% |
98% |
|
22 |
30% |
88% |
Median |
23 |
25% |
58% |
|
24 |
22% |
32% |
|
25 |
8% |
10% |
|
26 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
6% |
99.4% |
|
22 |
10% |
94% |
|
23 |
20% |
83% |
|
24 |
28% |
63% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
26% |
35% |
|
26 |
8% |
10% |
|
27 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
22 |
13% |
97% |
|
23 |
28% |
84% |
Median |
24 |
26% |
57% |
|
25 |
21% |
31% |
Last Result |
26 |
7% |
10% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
99.5% |
Last Result |
21 |
10% |
97% |
|
22 |
18% |
87% |
|
23 |
36% |
69% |
Median |
24 |
23% |
33% |
|
25 |
8% |
10% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
11% |
98% |
|
20 |
20% |
87% |
|
21 |
21% |
67% |
Median |
22 |
28% |
47% |
|
23 |
15% |
19% |
Last Result |
24 |
3% |
4% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
16 |
5% |
99.4% |
|
17 |
16% |
95% |
|
18 |
32% |
78% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
32% |
46% |
|
20 |
11% |
15% |
|
21 |
4% |
4% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
15 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
16 |
19% |
97% |
|
17 |
31% |
78% |
Median |
18 |
26% |
47% |
|
19 |
18% |
21% |
Last Result |
20 |
2% |
3% |
|
21 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
6% |
99.2% |
|
16 |
23% |
93% |
|
17 |
32% |
70% |
Last Result, Median |
18 |
26% |
38% |
|
19 |
11% |
13% |
|
20 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
12 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
13 |
9% |
98.6% |
|
14 |
32% |
90% |
Median |
15 |
28% |
58% |
|
16 |
25% |
29% |
|
17 |
4% |
5% |
|
18 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 12–18 February 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 919
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.99%