Opinion Poll by Gallup, 1–28 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.9% 22.1–23.7% 21.9–23.9% 21.7–24.1% 21.4–24.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.4% 13.8–15.1% 13.6–15.3% 13.4–15.4% 13.1–15.7%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 13.4% 12.8–14.1% 12.6–14.2% 12.5–14.4% 12.2–14.7%
Píratar 9.2% 12.2% 11.6–12.8% 11.4–13.0% 11.3–13.1% 11.0–13.4%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 10.3% 9.8–10.9% 9.6–11.1% 9.5–11.2% 9.2–11.5%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.4% 8.9–10.0% 8.7–10.1% 8.6–10.3% 8.4–10.5%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 7.3% 6.8–7.8% 6.7–8.0% 6.6–8.1% 6.4–8.3%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 5.8% 5.4–6.2% 5.3–6.4% 5.2–6.5% 5.0–6.7%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.0% 3.7–4.4% 3.6–4.5% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 15–16 14–16 14–17 14–17
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 8–10
Píratar 6 8 7–8 7–9 7–9 7–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 7 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Viðreisn 4 6 6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 0–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 7% 100%  
15 63% 93% Median
16 27% 30% Last Result
17 2% 3%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 0.9% 100%  
9 25% 99.1%  
10 73% 74% Median
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 21% 100%  
9 64% 79% Median
10 15% 15%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 11% 100%  
8 83% 89% Median
9 7% 7%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 8% 100%  
7 77% 92% Median
8 15% 15% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 8% 100%  
6 87% 92% Median
7 5% 5%  
8 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 47% 100%  
5 53% 53% Median
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.4%  
2 0% 99.4%  
3 44% 99.4%  
4 55% 55% Median
5 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 33 92% 32–33 31–34 31–34 30–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 31 38% 30–32 30–32 30–33 30–34
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 30 8% 29–31 29–32 29–33 28–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 27 0% 26–28 26–28 26–28 25–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 27 0% 26–27 25–28 25–28 24–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 26 0% 25–27 25–27 24–28 24–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 24–26 24–26 24–26 23–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 24 0% 23–25 23–25 23–26 23–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 23 0% 22–24 22–25 22–25 21–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 22 0% 22–23 21–23 21–24 21–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 20 0% 20–22 20–22 19–23 19–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 21 0% 21–22 20–22 19–23 19–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 20 0% 19–21 19–21 19–21 18–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 19 0% 18–19 18–20 17–20 17–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 17 0% 16–18 16–18 16–18 15–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 16 0% 15–17 15–17 15–18 15–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 13 0% 13–14 13–15 13–15 12–15

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.9% 99.9%  
31 7% 99.0%  
32 29% 92% Majority
33 57% 63% Median
34 6% 6%  
35 0.6% 0.6%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 16% 99.8%  
31 46% 84% Median
32 33% 38% Majority
33 4% 5%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.7% 100%  
29 12% 99.3%  
30 58% 88%  
31 21% 29% Median
32 4% 8% Majority
33 3% 3% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 2% 99.9%  
26 33% 98%  
27 44% 65% Median
28 19% 21%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.9% 100% Last Result
25 6% 99.1%  
26 31% 93%  
27 53% 62% Median
28 9% 9%  
29 0.6% 0.6%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 4% 100%  
25 33% 96%  
26 50% 63% Last Result, Median
27 9% 12%  
28 4% 4%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 1.1% 100% Last Result
24 20% 98.9%  
25 58% 79% Median
26 20% 21%  
27 0.9% 0.9%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 16% 99.9%  
24 52% 84% Median
25 29% 32%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.8% 100%  
22 10% 99.2%  
23 64% 90%  
24 19% 25% Median
25 6% 6% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.5% 100%  
21 5% 99.5%  
22 60% 94% Median
23 29% 34%  
24 4% 5% Last Result
25 0.4% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 4% 99.9%  
20 55% 96%  
21 28% 41% Median
22 9% 13%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 3% 100%  
20 6% 97% Last Result
21 60% 91% Median
22 27% 31%  
23 4% 4%  
24 0.4% 0.4%  
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 2% 100%  
19 35% 98%  
20 48% 63% Median
21 14% 16%  
22 1.4% 1.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
24 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 3% 100%  
18 35% 97% Last Result
19 52% 61% Median
20 9% 9%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 1.0% 100%  
16 28% 99.0%  
17 52% 71% Last Result, Median
18 19% 19%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 24% 99.6%  
16 53% 75% Median
17 18% 22%  
18 4% 4%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 57% 98%  
14 33% 41% Median
15 8% 8%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations