Opinion Poll by MMR, 5–10 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 21.0% 19.4–22.8% 18.9–23.3% 18.6–23.7% 17.8–24.6%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 13.8% 12.4–15.3% 12.1–15.7% 11.7–16.1% 11.1–16.9%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 12.7% 11.4–14.2% 11.1–14.6% 10.8–15.0% 10.2–15.7%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.7% 10.4–13.1% 10.1–13.5% 9.8–13.9% 9.2–14.6%
Píratar 9.2% 11.5% 10.2–12.9% 9.9–13.3% 9.6–13.6% 9.0–14.4%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.0% 8.8–11.3% 8.5–11.7% 8.2–12.1% 7.7–12.7%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 9.4% 8.2–10.7% 7.9–11.1% 7.7–11.4% 7.2–12.0%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.2% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.5% 3.9–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.2% 2.5–5.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 14 13–15 13–16 12–16 12–17
Samfylkingin 7 9 9–10 8–11 8–11 7–12
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 10 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Píratar 6 7 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Viðreisn 4 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Miðflokkurinn 7 6 5–7 5–8 5–9 5–9
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0 0 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 3% 99.8%  
13 26% 97%  
14 39% 70% Median
15 25% 31%  
16 5% 7% Last Result
17 1.2% 1.5%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 1.4% 100% Last Result
8 7% 98.6%  
9 47% 91% Median
10 37% 44%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 1.3% 99.9%  
8 17% 98.6% Last Result
9 11% 82%  
10 49% 70% Median
11 21% 21%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 6% 99.9%  
7 48% 94% Median
8 33% 46%  
9 11% 13%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 7% 99.7% Last Result
7 44% 93% Median
8 35% 49%  
9 13% 13%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100% Last Result
5 9% 99.9%  
6 37% 91%  
7 44% 54% Median
8 9% 10%  
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.4% 100%  
5 13% 99.6%  
6 43% 87% Median
7 38% 44% Last Result
8 2% 5%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100%  
1 0% 53%  
2 0% 53%  
3 43% 53% Median
4 10% 10% Last Result
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 33 33 93% 32–35 31–36 30–36 29–36
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 31 47% 29–33 29–33 28–34 28–35
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 31 37% 29–33 29–34 28–34 28–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 30 16% 28–32 28–33 27–33 27–33
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 27 0% 25–29 25–29 24–29 23–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 24 0% 23–27 23–27 22–27 21–28
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 26 24 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 24 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 20–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 23 0% 21–25 21–26 21–26 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 24 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 22 0% 20–23 20–23 19–24 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 20 0% 19–22 19–23 19–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 20 0% 19–22 19–23 18–23 18–24
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 17 0% 16–19 15–19 15–19 14–20
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 16–19 15–19 15–19 14–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 15 0% 14–17 14–17 13–17 13–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 14 0% 12–16 12–16 12–16 11–17

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 0.8% 99.5%  
30 2% 98.8%  
31 4% 97%  
32 26% 93% Median, Majority
33 34% 67% Last Result
34 22% 33%  
35 6% 11%  
36 5% 5%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 3% 99.7%  
29 8% 97%  
30 15% 89%  
31 27% 74% Median
32 27% 47% Majority
33 16% 20%  
34 4% 4%  
35 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.9%  
28 3% 99.6% Last Result
29 9% 97%  
30 30% 88% Median
31 21% 58%  
32 17% 37% Majority
33 15% 20%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.8% 1.0%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.6%  
28 8% 97%  
29 16% 89%  
30 36% 73% Median
31 21% 37% Last Result
32 10% 16% Majority
33 6% 6%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 1.0% 99.6%  
24 3% 98.6%  
25 15% 95%  
26 20% 80% Last Result, Median
27 40% 61%  
28 11% 21%  
29 9% 10%  
30 1.2% 1.5%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 4% 99.4%  
23 20% 95% Median
24 31% 75% Last Result
25 21% 44%  
26 12% 23%  
27 9% 11%  
28 1.4% 2%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 1.1% 99.8%  
21 2% 98.7%  
22 13% 97%  
23 31% 84% Median
24 30% 53%  
25 15% 23%  
26 8% 8% Last Result
27 0.7% 0.7%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 1.0% 100%  
21 3% 98.9%  
22 11% 96%  
23 27% 84%  
24 26% 58% Last Result, Median
25 24% 32%  
26 7% 8%  
27 1.4% 1.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.7% 99.8%  
21 10% 99.1%  
22 11% 89% Median
23 39% 78%  
24 21% 40%  
25 11% 19% Last Result
26 7% 8%  
27 0.8% 0.9%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.0% 99.9%  
21 4% 99.0%  
22 16% 95%  
23 29% 80% Last Result, Median
24 35% 51%  
25 11% 16%  
26 4% 5%  
27 1.2% 1.5%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 3% 99.9%  
20 15% 97%  
21 32% 83% Median
22 29% 51%  
23 18% 22%  
24 3% 5%  
25 0.9% 2%  
26 0.6% 0.7%  
27 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 2% 99.8%  
19 19% 98%  
20 31% 79% Last Result
21 21% 48% Median
22 17% 27%  
23 9% 10%  
24 0.8% 0.9%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 4% 99.5%  
19 23% 95%  
20 25% 72% Median
21 24% 48%  
22 18% 24%  
23 4% 6% Last Result
24 1.0% 1.2%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.3% 99.8%  
15 8% 98%  
16 14% 90%  
17 30% 76% Median
18 33% 46%  
19 12% 13% Last Result
20 1.4% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.0% 99.9%  
15 7% 98.9%  
16 25% 92% Median
17 41% 66%  
18 14% 25% Last Result
19 9% 11%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 4% 99.5%  
14 32% 95% Median
15 27% 63%  
16 22% 36%  
17 12% 14% Last Result
18 1.5% 2%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.8% 100%  
12 11% 99.2%  
13 24% 88% Median
14 36% 64%  
15 17% 28%  
16 9% 11%  
17 1.4% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations