Opinion Poll by MMR, 5–10 March 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
21.0% |
19.4–22.8% |
18.9–23.3% |
18.6–23.7% |
17.8–24.6% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
13.8% |
12.4–15.3% |
12.1–15.7% |
11.7–16.1% |
11.1–16.9% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
12.7% |
11.4–14.2% |
11.1–14.6% |
10.8–15.0% |
10.2–15.7% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
11.7% |
10.4–13.1% |
10.1–13.5% |
9.8–13.9% |
9.2–14.6% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.5% |
10.2–12.9% |
9.9–13.3% |
9.6–13.6% |
9.0–14.4% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.0% |
8.8–11.3% |
8.5–11.7% |
8.2–12.1% |
7.7–12.7% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
9.4% |
8.2–10.7% |
7.9–11.1% |
7.7–11.4% |
7.2–12.0% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
5.2% |
4.3–6.2% |
4.1–6.5% |
3.9–6.8% |
3.6–7.3% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
3.8% |
3.1–4.7% |
2.9–5.0% |
2.7–5.2% |
2.5–5.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
12 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
13 |
26% |
97% |
|
14 |
39% |
70% |
Median |
15 |
25% |
31% |
|
16 |
5% |
7% |
Last Result |
17 |
1.2% |
1.5% |
|
18 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
1.4% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
7% |
98.6% |
|
9 |
47% |
91% |
Median |
10 |
37% |
44% |
|
11 |
6% |
7% |
|
12 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
8 |
17% |
98.6% |
Last Result |
9 |
11% |
82% |
|
10 |
49% |
70% |
Median |
11 |
21% |
21% |
|
12 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
48% |
94% |
Median |
8 |
33% |
46% |
|
9 |
11% |
13% |
|
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
6 |
7% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
7 |
44% |
93% |
Median |
8 |
35% |
49% |
|
9 |
13% |
13% |
|
10 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
9% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
37% |
91% |
|
7 |
44% |
54% |
Median |
8 |
9% |
10% |
|
9 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
5 |
13% |
99.6% |
|
6 |
43% |
87% |
Median |
7 |
38% |
44% |
Last Result |
8 |
2% |
5% |
|
9 |
3% |
4% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
47% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
53% |
|
2 |
0% |
53% |
|
3 |
43% |
53% |
Median |
4 |
10% |
10% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
2% |
|
2 |
0% |
2% |
|
3 |
2% |
2% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
33 |
93% |
32–35 |
31–36 |
30–36 |
29–36 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
35 |
31 |
47% |
29–33 |
29–33 |
28–34 |
28–35 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
31 |
37% |
29–33 |
29–34 |
28–34 |
28–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
30 |
16% |
28–32 |
28–33 |
27–33 |
27–33 |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
27 |
0% |
25–29 |
25–29 |
24–29 |
23–30 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
24 |
0% |
23–27 |
23–27 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
24 |
0% |
22–25 |
22–26 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
24 |
0% |
22–25 |
22–26 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
23 |
0% |
21–25 |
21–26 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
24 |
0% |
22–25 |
22–26 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–23 |
19–24 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–23 |
19–23 |
18–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–23 |
18–23 |
18–24 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
19 |
17 |
0% |
16–19 |
15–19 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
17 |
0% |
16–19 |
15–19 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
15 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–17 |
13–17 |
13–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
14 |
0% |
12–16 |
12–16 |
12–16 |
11–17 |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
0.8% |
99.5% |
|
30 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
31 |
4% |
97% |
|
32 |
26% |
93% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
34% |
67% |
Last Result |
34 |
22% |
33% |
|
35 |
6% |
11% |
|
36 |
5% |
5% |
|
37 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
28 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
29 |
8% |
97% |
|
30 |
15% |
89% |
|
31 |
27% |
74% |
Median |
32 |
27% |
47% |
Majority |
33 |
16% |
20% |
|
34 |
4% |
4% |
|
35 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
3% |
99.6% |
Last Result |
29 |
9% |
97% |
|
30 |
30% |
88% |
Median |
31 |
21% |
58% |
|
32 |
17% |
37% |
Majority |
33 |
15% |
20% |
|
34 |
4% |
5% |
|
35 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
36 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
28 |
8% |
97% |
|
29 |
16% |
89% |
|
30 |
36% |
73% |
Median |
31 |
21% |
37% |
Last Result |
32 |
10% |
16% |
Majority |
33 |
6% |
6% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
23 |
1.0% |
99.6% |
|
24 |
3% |
98.6% |
|
25 |
15% |
95% |
|
26 |
20% |
80% |
Last Result, Median |
27 |
40% |
61% |
|
28 |
11% |
21% |
|
29 |
9% |
10% |
|
30 |
1.2% |
1.5% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
4% |
99.4% |
|
23 |
20% |
95% |
Median |
24 |
31% |
75% |
Last Result |
25 |
21% |
44% |
|
26 |
12% |
23% |
|
27 |
9% |
11% |
|
28 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
1.1% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
22 |
13% |
97% |
|
23 |
31% |
84% |
Median |
24 |
30% |
53% |
|
25 |
15% |
23% |
|
26 |
8% |
8% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
21 |
3% |
98.9% |
|
22 |
11% |
96% |
|
23 |
27% |
84% |
|
24 |
26% |
58% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
24% |
32% |
|
26 |
7% |
8% |
|
27 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
10% |
99.1% |
|
22 |
11% |
89% |
Median |
23 |
39% |
78% |
|
24 |
21% |
40% |
|
25 |
11% |
19% |
Last Result |
26 |
7% |
8% |
|
27 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
4% |
99.0% |
|
22 |
16% |
95% |
|
23 |
29% |
80% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
35% |
51% |
|
25 |
11% |
16% |
|
26 |
4% |
5% |
|
27 |
1.2% |
1.5% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
15% |
97% |
|
21 |
32% |
83% |
Median |
22 |
29% |
51% |
|
23 |
18% |
22% |
|
24 |
3% |
5% |
|
25 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
26 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
19% |
98% |
|
20 |
31% |
79% |
Last Result |
21 |
21% |
48% |
Median |
22 |
17% |
27% |
|
23 |
9% |
10% |
|
24 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
18 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
19 |
23% |
95% |
|
20 |
25% |
72% |
Median |
21 |
24% |
48% |
|
22 |
18% |
24% |
|
23 |
4% |
6% |
Last Result |
24 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
14 |
1.3% |
99.8% |
|
15 |
8% |
98% |
|
16 |
14% |
90% |
|
17 |
30% |
76% |
Median |
18 |
33% |
46% |
|
19 |
12% |
13% |
Last Result |
20 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
7% |
98.9% |
|
16 |
25% |
92% |
Median |
17 |
41% |
66% |
|
18 |
14% |
25% |
Last Result |
19 |
9% |
11% |
|
20 |
2% |
2% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
13 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
14 |
32% |
95% |
Median |
15 |
27% |
63% |
|
16 |
22% |
36% |
|
17 |
12% |
14% |
Last Result |
18 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
12 |
11% |
99.2% |
|
13 |
24% |
88% |
Median |
14 |
36% |
64% |
|
15 |
17% |
28% |
|
16 |
9% |
11% |
|
17 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
18 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 5–10 March 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 951
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.48%