Opinion Poll by Gallup, 1–29 March 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
23.0% |
22.3–23.8% |
22.1–24.0% |
21.9–24.2% |
21.6–24.5% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
12.7% |
12.1–13.3% |
12.0–13.5% |
11.8–13.6% |
11.6–13.9% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
12.3% |
11.7–12.9% |
11.6–13.1% |
11.4–13.2% |
11.2–13.5% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.5% |
11.0–12.1% |
10.8–12.3% |
10.7–12.4% |
10.4–12.7% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
11.1% |
10.6–11.7% |
10.4–11.8% |
10.3–12.0% |
10.0–12.3% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
9.5% |
9.0–10.0% |
8.9–10.2% |
8.7–10.3% |
8.5–10.6% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.5% |
9.0–10.0% |
8.9–10.2% |
8.7–10.3% |
8.5–10.6% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
5.0% |
4.6–5.4% |
4.5–5.5% |
4.4–5.6% |
4.3–5.8% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.6–5.4% |
4.5–5.5% |
4.4–5.6% |
4.3–5.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
15 |
35% |
99.5% |
|
16 |
25% |
64% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
38% |
39% |
|
18 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
7 |
15% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
8 |
40% |
84% |
Median |
9 |
44% |
45% |
|
10 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
24% |
100% |
|
8 |
41% |
76% |
Median |
9 |
35% |
35% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
4% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
52% |
96% |
Median |
8 |
42% |
44% |
|
9 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
16% |
99.9% |
|
8 |
84% |
84% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
15% |
100% |
|
6 |
73% |
85% |
Median |
7 |
13% |
13% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
32% |
100% |
|
6 |
59% |
68% |
Median |
7 |
9% |
9% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
40% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
60% |
|
2 |
0% |
60% |
|
3 |
59% |
60% |
Median |
4 |
1.5% |
1.5% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
42% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
58% |
|
2 |
0% |
58% |
|
3 |
58% |
58% |
Median |
4 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
32 |
63% |
30–34 |
30–34 |
30–34 |
30–34 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
30 |
14% |
29–32 |
28–32 |
28–33 |
27–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
30 |
4% |
29–31 |
28–31 |
28–32 |
27–32 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
30 |
14% |
27–32 |
27–32 |
26–32 |
26–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
22–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
22–26 |
22–26 |
22–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
24 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–26 |
22–26 |
22–26 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
24 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–26 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
22–25 |
22–25 |
22–25 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
22 |
0% |
21–24 |
20–25 |
20–25 |
20–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
20–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–24 |
20–24 |
20–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–23 |
20–24 |
20–24 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
16 |
0% |
15–18 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
15–17 |
15–17 |
15–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
16 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–17 |
14–17 |
13–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
14 |
0% |
13–15 |
13–16 |
13–16 |
12–16 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
30 |
17% |
99.6% |
|
31 |
19% |
83% |
|
32 |
21% |
63% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
31% |
42% |
|
34 |
11% |
11% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
28 |
9% |
99.5% |
|
29 |
16% |
91% |
|
30 |
34% |
75% |
Median |
31 |
26% |
40% |
|
32 |
11% |
14% |
Majority |
33 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
28 |
4% |
98.5% |
|
29 |
40% |
95% |
|
30 |
21% |
54% |
Median |
31 |
29% |
33% |
Last Result |
32 |
4% |
4% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
4% |
100% |
|
27 |
7% |
96% |
|
28 |
20% |
89% |
Last Result |
29 |
18% |
69% |
Median |
30 |
14% |
51% |
|
31 |
23% |
37% |
|
32 |
12% |
14% |
Majority |
33 |
2% |
2% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
23 |
15% |
99.2% |
Last Result |
24 |
44% |
84% |
Median |
25 |
32% |
40% |
|
26 |
8% |
8% |
|
27 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
10% |
94% |
|
24 |
44% |
84% |
Median |
25 |
32% |
40% |
|
26 |
7% |
7% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
14% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
19% |
86% |
|
24 |
19% |
67% |
Median |
25 |
33% |
47% |
|
26 |
14% |
14% |
|
27 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
5% |
98.9% |
|
22 |
7% |
94% |
|
23 |
32% |
87% |
Median |
24 |
20% |
56% |
Last Result |
25 |
26% |
36% |
|
26 |
9% |
9% |
|
27 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
22 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
23 |
35% |
95% |
|
24 |
26% |
60% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
33% |
33% |
|
26 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
20 |
7% |
99.6% |
|
21 |
15% |
93% |
|
22 |
32% |
78% |
Median |
23 |
29% |
46% |
|
24 |
12% |
17% |
|
25 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
2% |
100% |
|
21 |
37% |
98% |
|
22 |
24% |
60% |
Median |
23 |
29% |
36% |
Last Result |
24 |
7% |
7% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
31% |
96% |
|
22 |
39% |
65% |
Median |
23 |
19% |
26% |
|
24 |
7% |
7% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
15% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
21 |
27% |
85% |
|
22 |
24% |
58% |
Median |
23 |
30% |
34% |
|
24 |
3% |
3% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
6% |
100% |
|
15 |
6% |
94% |
|
16 |
41% |
88% |
Median |
17 |
35% |
47% |
|
18 |
11% |
12% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
15 |
31% |
99.5% |
|
16 |
42% |
69% |
Median |
17 |
27% |
27% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
2% |
100% |
|
14 |
20% |
98% |
|
15 |
22% |
78% |
Median |
16 |
37% |
56% |
|
17 |
18% |
19% |
Last Result |
18 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
2% |
100% |
|
13 |
27% |
98% |
|
14 |
40% |
71% |
Median |
15 |
22% |
31% |
|
16 |
9% |
9% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 1–29 March 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 5224
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.20%