Opinion Poll by Gallup, 1–29 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.0% 22.3–23.8% 22.1–24.0% 21.9–24.2% 21.6–24.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 12.7% 12.1–13.3% 12.0–13.5% 11.8–13.6% 11.6–13.9%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.3% 11.7–12.9% 11.6–13.1% 11.4–13.2% 11.2–13.5%
Píratar 9.2% 11.5% 11.0–12.1% 10.8–12.3% 10.7–12.4% 10.4–12.7%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 11.1% 10.6–11.7% 10.4–11.8% 10.3–12.0% 10.0–12.3%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 9.5% 9.0–10.0% 8.9–10.2% 8.7–10.3% 8.5–10.6%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.5% 9.0–10.0% 8.9–10.2% 8.7–10.3% 8.5–10.6%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.0% 4.6–5.4% 4.5–5.5% 4.4–5.6% 4.3–5.8%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 5.0% 4.6–5.4% 4.5–5.5% 4.4–5.6% 4.3–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 15–17 15–17 15–17 14–18
Samfylkingin 7 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Píratar 6 7 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–8
Miðflokkurinn 7 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Viðreisn 4 6 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 3 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.5% 100%  
15 35% 99.5%  
16 25% 64% Last Result, Median
17 38% 39%  
18 0.6% 0.6%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 15% 99.8% Last Result
8 40% 84% Median
9 44% 45%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 24% 100%  
8 41% 76% Median
9 35% 35%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 4% 100% Last Result
7 52% 96% Median
8 42% 44%  
9 1.4% 1.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 16% 99.9%  
8 84% 84% Last Result, Median
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 15% 100%  
6 73% 85% Median
7 13% 13% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 32% 100%  
6 59% 68% Median
7 9% 9%  
8 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 40% 100%  
1 0% 60%  
2 0% 60%  
3 59% 60% Median
4 1.5% 1.5% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 42% 100% Last Result
1 0% 58%  
2 0% 58%  
3 58% 58% Median
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 32 63% 30–34 30–34 30–34 30–34
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 30 14% 29–32 28–32 28–33 27–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 30 4% 29–31 28–31 28–32 27–32
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 30 14% 27–32 27–32 26–32 26–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 24 0% 23–25 23–26 23–26 22–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 23–25 22–26 22–26 22–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 24 0% 22–26 22–26 22–26 22–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 24 0% 22–25 21–26 21–26 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 24 0% 23–25 22–25 22–25 22–25
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 22 0% 21–24 20–25 20–25 20–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 22 0% 21–23 21–24 21–24 20–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 22 0% 21–23 21–24 20–24 20–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 22 0% 20–23 20–23 20–24 20–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 15–18 14–18 14–18 14–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 16 0% 15–17 15–17 15–17 15–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 16 0% 14–17 14–17 14–17 13–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 14 0% 13–15 13–16 13–16 12–16

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.4% 100%  
30 17% 99.6%  
31 19% 83%  
32 21% 63% Median, Majority
33 31% 42%  
34 11% 11%  
35 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.5% 100%  
28 9% 99.5%  
29 16% 91%  
30 34% 75% Median
31 26% 40%  
32 11% 14% Majority
33 3% 3% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 1.5% 100%  
28 4% 98.5%  
29 40% 95%  
30 21% 54% Median
31 29% 33% Last Result
32 4% 4% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 4% 100%  
27 7% 96%  
28 20% 89% Last Result
29 18% 69% Median
30 14% 51%  
31 23% 37%  
32 12% 14% Majority
33 2% 2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.7% 100%  
23 15% 99.2% Last Result
24 44% 84% Median
25 32% 40%  
26 8% 8%  
27 0.6% 0.6%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 6% 99.9%  
23 10% 94%  
24 44% 84% Median
25 32% 40%  
26 7% 7% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 14% 99.9%  
23 19% 86%  
24 19% 67% Median
25 33% 47%  
26 14% 14%  
27 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 1.1% 100%  
21 5% 98.9%  
22 7% 94%  
23 32% 87% Median
24 20% 56% Last Result
25 26% 36%  
26 9% 9%  
27 0.6% 0.6%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 5% 99.7%  
23 35% 95%  
24 26% 60% Last Result, Median
25 33% 33%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 7% 99.6%  
21 15% 93%  
22 32% 78% Median
23 29% 46%  
24 12% 17%  
25 5% 5% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 2% 100%  
21 37% 98%  
22 24% 60% Median
23 29% 36% Last Result
24 7% 7%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 4% 99.8%  
21 31% 96%  
22 39% 65% Median
23 19% 26%  
24 7% 7%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 15% 99.9% Last Result
21 27% 85%  
22 24% 58% Median
23 30% 34%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 6% 100%  
15 6% 94%  
16 41% 88% Median
17 35% 47%  
18 11% 12% Last Result
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.5% 100%  
15 31% 99.5%  
16 42% 69% Median
17 27% 27%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 2% 100%  
14 20% 98%  
15 22% 78% Median
16 37% 56%  
17 18% 19% Last Result
18 1.3% 1.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 27% 98%  
14 40% 71% Median
15 22% 31%  
16 9% 9%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations