Opinion Poll by MMR, 29 March–7 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.1% 21.4–24.9% 20.9–25.4% 20.5–25.9% 19.7–26.8%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 15.4% 14.0–17.0% 13.6–17.5% 13.3–17.9% 12.6–18.7%
Píratar 9.2% 13.2% 11.9–14.7% 11.5–15.1% 11.2–15.5% 10.6–16.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 11.5% 10.2–12.9% 9.9–13.3% 9.6–13.7% 9.0–14.4%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.1% 8.9–11.5% 8.6–11.9% 8.3–12.2% 7.8–12.9%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.0% 8.8–11.4% 8.5–11.8% 8.2–12.1% 7.7–12.8%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 6.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.0–9.3%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.5–6.2% 3.2–6.8%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 15–18 14–18 14–18 13–19
Samfylkingin 7 11 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
Píratar 6 9 8–10 8–10 7–11 7–11
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Viðreisn 4 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 4–5 3–6 3–6 2–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 1.4% 100%  
14 7% 98.6%  
15 18% 91%  
16 41% 73% Last Result, Median
17 22% 33%  
18 8% 11%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 1.1% 100%  
9 14% 98.8%  
10 30% 85%  
11 41% 55% Median
12 12% 14%  
13 1.3% 1.5%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100% Last Result
7 5% 99.8%  
8 26% 95%  
9 44% 69% Median
10 21% 25%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9%  
7 7% 97%  
8 55% 90% Last Result, Median
9 20% 35%  
10 14% 15%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 4% 100%  
6 40% 96%  
7 44% 56% Median
8 11% 12%  
9 0.8% 0.9%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 5% 100%  
6 33% 95%  
7 50% 63% Median
8 12% 13%  
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.5%  
3 5% 99.4%  
4 39% 95%  
5 50% 55% Median
6 5% 5%  
7 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 70% 100% Median
1 0% 30%  
2 0% 30%  
3 25% 30%  
4 5% 5% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 4% 5%  
4 1.3% 1.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 33 79% 31–35 30–35 29–36 28–37
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 31 33% 30–33 29–33 29–33 28–34
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 33 30 16% 28–32 28–32 27–33 26–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 29 1.5% 27–31 27–31 26–31 25–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 27 0% 25–29 24–29 24–29 23–30
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 26 0% 24–28 24–28 23–29 22–30
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 26 0% 24–27 23–28 23–28 22–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 24 0% 23–26 22–27 22–27 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 23 0% 21–24 21–25 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 21–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 22 0% 20–23 20–24 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 21 0% 19–22 19–23 18–23 17–24
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 26 20 0% 18–21 18–22 17–22 16–23
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 16–19 15–19 15–20 14–21
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 16 0% 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–19
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 15 0% 14–17 13–17 13–17 12–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 11 0% 10–12 10–13 9–13 8–14

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
29 3% 99.5%  
30 6% 97%  
31 12% 91%  
32 16% 79% Majority
33 22% 62%  
34 28% 40% Median
35 10% 12%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.5% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.4% 100%  
28 2% 99.6%  
29 8% 98%  
30 16% 90%  
31 42% 75% Median
32 16% 33% Majority
33 15% 17%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.8% 99.8%  
27 3% 99.0%  
28 9% 96%  
29 18% 87%  
30 27% 69%  
31 26% 42% Median
32 12% 16% Majority
33 4% 4% Last Result
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.9%  
26 4% 99.2%  
27 8% 96%  
28 17% 87%  
29 35% 70% Median
30 22% 35%  
31 12% 13% Last Result
32 1.3% 1.5% Majority
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.1% 99.9% Last Result
24 7% 98.8%  
25 9% 91%  
26 27% 82%  
27 31% 55% Median
28 13% 24%  
29 10% 11%  
30 0.9% 1.3%  
31 0.4% 0.4%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.5% 99.8%  
23 3% 99.4%  
24 15% 96% Last Result
25 11% 81%  
26 24% 71%  
27 32% 46% Median
28 11% 14%  
29 3% 3%  
30 0.5% 0.6%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.9% 99.8%  
23 7% 98.8%  
24 11% 92%  
25 23% 81%  
26 37% 58% Last Result, Median
27 16% 21%  
28 3% 5%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.1% 99.9%  
22 5% 98.8%  
23 11% 94%  
24 34% 83% Last Result, Median
25 31% 49%  
26 12% 18%  
27 6% 6%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.6% 100%  
20 3% 99.3%  
21 14% 96%  
22 23% 82%  
23 33% 59% Median
24 18% 27%  
25 7% 9%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.7% 99.9%  
20 4% 99.2% Last Result
21 9% 95%  
22 23% 86%  
23 36% 63% Median
24 17% 27%  
25 8% 10%  
26 1.2% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.4%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.0% 99.9%  
19 3% 98.9%  
20 14% 96%  
21 23% 82%  
22 32% 59%  
23 19% 28% Median
24 7% 8%  
25 2% 2% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 1.3% 99.7%  
18 3% 98%  
19 14% 95%  
20 25% 81%  
21 31% 56% Median
22 21% 26%  
23 3% 5% Last Result
24 2% 2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.7% 99.8%  
17 4% 99.1%  
18 13% 95%  
19 29% 82%  
20 28% 52% Median
21 19% 24%  
22 4% 5%  
23 1.0% 1.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.8% 99.9%  
15 7% 99.0%  
16 18% 93%  
17 33% 74%  
18 31% 41% Last Result, Median
19 8% 10%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.5% 0.5%  
22 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 4% 99.7%  
14 14% 96%  
15 29% 82%  
16 32% 53% Median
17 16% 21% Last Result
18 4% 5%  
19 0.6% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.4% 99.9%  
13 4% 98%  
14 24% 94%  
15 40% 70% Median
16 20% 30%  
17 9% 10%  
18 1.4% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.4% 99.9%  
9 3% 99.4%  
10 20% 96%  
11 39% 76%  
12 28% 37% Median
13 8% 10%  
14 1.3% 1.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations