Opinion Poll by MMR, 29 March–7 April 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
23.1% |
21.4–24.9% |
20.9–25.4% |
20.5–25.9% |
19.7–26.8% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
15.4% |
14.0–17.0% |
13.6–17.5% |
13.3–17.9% |
12.6–18.7% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
13.2% |
11.9–14.7% |
11.5–15.1% |
11.2–15.5% |
10.6–16.3% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
11.5% |
10.2–12.9% |
9.9–13.3% |
9.6–13.7% |
9.0–14.4% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.1% |
8.9–11.5% |
8.6–11.9% |
8.3–12.2% |
7.8–12.9% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.0% |
8.8–11.4% |
8.5–11.8% |
8.2–12.1% |
7.7–12.8% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
6.9% |
6.0–8.1% |
5.7–8.4% |
5.5–8.7% |
5.0–9.3% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.7% |
3.9–5.7% |
3.7–6.0% |
3.5–6.2% |
3.2–6.8% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.3–5.0% |
3.1–5.3% |
3.0–5.5% |
2.7–6.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
14 |
7% |
98.6% |
|
15 |
18% |
91% |
|
16 |
41% |
73% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
22% |
33% |
|
18 |
8% |
11% |
|
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
14% |
98.8% |
|
10 |
30% |
85% |
|
11 |
41% |
55% |
Median |
12 |
12% |
14% |
|
13 |
1.3% |
1.5% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
5% |
99.8% |
|
8 |
26% |
95% |
|
9 |
44% |
69% |
Median |
10 |
21% |
25% |
|
11 |
3% |
3% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
7% |
97% |
|
8 |
55% |
90% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
20% |
35% |
|
10 |
14% |
15% |
|
11 |
2% |
2% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
4% |
100% |
|
6 |
40% |
96% |
|
7 |
44% |
56% |
Median |
8 |
11% |
12% |
|
9 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
5% |
100% |
|
6 |
33% |
95% |
|
7 |
50% |
63% |
Median |
8 |
12% |
13% |
|
9 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
2 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
3 |
5% |
99.4% |
|
4 |
39% |
95% |
|
5 |
50% |
55% |
Median |
6 |
5% |
5% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
70% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
30% |
|
2 |
0% |
30% |
|
3 |
25% |
30% |
|
4 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
95% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
2 |
0% |
5% |
|
3 |
4% |
5% |
|
4 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
33 |
79% |
31–35 |
30–35 |
29–36 |
28–37 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
35 |
31 |
33% |
30–33 |
29–33 |
29–33 |
28–34 |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
30 |
16% |
28–32 |
28–32 |
27–33 |
26–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
1.5% |
27–31 |
27–31 |
26–31 |
25–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
27 |
0% |
25–29 |
24–29 |
24–29 |
23–30 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
26 |
0% |
24–28 |
24–28 |
23–29 |
22–30 |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
26 |
0% |
24–27 |
23–28 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
24 |
0% |
23–26 |
22–27 |
22–27 |
21–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
20–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–24 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–23 |
18–23 |
17–24 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
20 |
0% |
18–21 |
18–22 |
17–22 |
16–23 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
17 |
0% |
16–19 |
15–19 |
15–20 |
14–21 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
16 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–17 |
13–18 |
13–19 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
19 |
15 |
0% |
14–17 |
13–17 |
13–17 |
12–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
11 |
0% |
10–12 |
10–13 |
9–13 |
8–14 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
29 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
30 |
6% |
97% |
|
31 |
12% |
91% |
|
32 |
16% |
79% |
Majority |
33 |
22% |
62% |
|
34 |
28% |
40% |
Median |
35 |
10% |
12% |
|
36 |
2% |
3% |
|
37 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
29 |
8% |
98% |
|
30 |
16% |
90% |
|
31 |
42% |
75% |
Median |
32 |
16% |
33% |
Majority |
33 |
15% |
17% |
|
34 |
2% |
2% |
|
35 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
3% |
99.0% |
|
28 |
9% |
96% |
|
29 |
18% |
87% |
|
30 |
27% |
69% |
|
31 |
26% |
42% |
Median |
32 |
12% |
16% |
Majority |
33 |
4% |
4% |
Last Result |
34 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
27 |
8% |
96% |
|
28 |
17% |
87% |
|
29 |
35% |
70% |
Median |
30 |
22% |
35% |
|
31 |
12% |
13% |
Last Result |
32 |
1.3% |
1.5% |
Majority |
33 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
24 |
7% |
98.8% |
|
25 |
9% |
91% |
|
26 |
27% |
82% |
|
27 |
31% |
55% |
Median |
28 |
13% |
24% |
|
29 |
10% |
11% |
|
30 |
0.9% |
1.3% |
|
31 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
24 |
15% |
96% |
Last Result |
25 |
11% |
81% |
|
26 |
24% |
71% |
|
27 |
32% |
46% |
Median |
28 |
11% |
14% |
|
29 |
3% |
3% |
|
30 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
7% |
98.8% |
|
24 |
11% |
92% |
|
25 |
23% |
81% |
|
26 |
37% |
58% |
Last Result, Median |
27 |
16% |
21% |
|
28 |
3% |
5% |
|
29 |
2% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
5% |
98.8% |
|
23 |
11% |
94% |
|
24 |
34% |
83% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
31% |
49% |
|
26 |
12% |
18% |
|
27 |
6% |
6% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
20 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
21 |
14% |
96% |
|
22 |
23% |
82% |
|
23 |
33% |
59% |
Median |
24 |
18% |
27% |
|
25 |
7% |
9% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
4% |
99.2% |
Last Result |
21 |
9% |
95% |
|
22 |
23% |
86% |
|
23 |
36% |
63% |
Median |
24 |
17% |
27% |
|
25 |
8% |
10% |
|
26 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
3% |
98.9% |
|
20 |
14% |
96% |
|
21 |
23% |
82% |
|
22 |
32% |
59% |
|
23 |
19% |
28% |
Median |
24 |
7% |
8% |
|
25 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
17 |
1.3% |
99.7% |
|
18 |
3% |
98% |
|
19 |
14% |
95% |
|
20 |
25% |
81% |
|
21 |
31% |
56% |
Median |
22 |
21% |
26% |
|
23 |
3% |
5% |
Last Result |
24 |
2% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
4% |
99.1% |
|
18 |
13% |
95% |
|
19 |
29% |
82% |
|
20 |
28% |
52% |
Median |
21 |
19% |
24% |
|
22 |
4% |
5% |
|
23 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
7% |
99.0% |
|
16 |
18% |
93% |
|
17 |
33% |
74% |
|
18 |
31% |
41% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
8% |
10% |
|
20 |
2% |
3% |
|
21 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
14 |
14% |
96% |
|
15 |
29% |
82% |
|
16 |
32% |
53% |
Median |
17 |
16% |
21% |
Last Result |
18 |
4% |
5% |
|
19 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
12 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
13 |
4% |
98% |
|
14 |
24% |
94% |
|
15 |
40% |
70% |
Median |
16 |
20% |
30% |
|
17 |
9% |
10% |
|
18 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
10 |
20% |
96% |
|
11 |
39% |
76% |
|
12 |
28% |
37% |
Median |
13 |
8% |
10% |
|
14 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 29 March–7 April 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 940
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.36%