Opinion Poll by MMR, 21–28 April 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
28.8% |
26.9–30.7% |
26.4–31.2% |
26.0–31.7% |
25.1–32.7% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
12.9% |
11.6–14.4% |
11.2–14.8% |
10.9–15.2% |
10.3–15.9% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
11.3% |
10.1–12.7% |
9.7–13.1% |
9.4–13.5% |
8.9–14.2% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
10.6% |
9.4–12.0% |
9.1–12.3% |
8.8–12.7% |
8.2–13.4% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
9.6% |
8.5–11.0% |
8.2–11.3% |
7.9–11.7% |
7.4–12.3% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
8.8% |
7.7–10.1% |
7.4–10.4% |
7.1–10.7% |
6.6–11.4% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
6.0% |
5.1–7.1% |
4.9–7.5% |
4.7–7.7% |
4.3–8.3% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
5.8% |
4.9–6.9% |
4.7–7.2% |
4.5–7.5% |
4.1–8.0% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.8% |
4.0–5.8% |
3.7–6.1% |
3.6–6.3% |
3.2–6.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
17 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
19 |
37% |
97% |
|
20 |
31% |
59% |
Median |
21 |
16% |
29% |
|
22 |
8% |
13% |
|
23 |
3% |
5% |
|
24 |
2% |
3% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
7 |
7% |
99.3% |
|
8 |
31% |
93% |
|
9 |
36% |
62% |
Median |
10 |
25% |
26% |
|
11 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
6 |
19% |
99.4% |
|
7 |
46% |
81% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
28% |
34% |
|
9 |
5% |
6% |
|
10 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
5 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
13% |
97% |
|
7 |
19% |
84% |
|
8 |
58% |
65% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
5% |
7% |
|
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
3% |
100% |
|
5 |
18% |
97% |
|
6 |
47% |
79% |
Last Result, Median |
7 |
28% |
32% |
|
8 |
4% |
4% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
5% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
42% |
95% |
|
6 |
46% |
53% |
Median |
7 |
7% |
7% |
|
8 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
11% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
89% |
|
2 |
0.2% |
89% |
|
3 |
23% |
89% |
|
4 |
54% |
65% |
Median |
5 |
11% |
11% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
1 |
17% |
99.8% |
|
2 |
0.2% |
83% |
|
3 |
35% |
83% |
Median |
4 |
45% |
48% |
|
5 |
3% |
3% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
66% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
34% |
|
2 |
0.2% |
34% |
|
3 |
28% |
34% |
|
4 |
6% |
6% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
36 |
100% |
35–38 |
34–39 |
34–39 |
33–40 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
31 |
29% |
29–32 |
29–33 |
28–34 |
27–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
29 |
5% |
27–31 |
27–31 |
26–32 |
26–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
28 |
0.4% |
26–29 |
26–30 |
25–31 |
24–31 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
28 |
1.0% |
25–30 |
25–30 |
25–31 |
23–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
27 |
2% |
26–29 |
25–30 |
25–31 |
24–32 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
27 |
0% |
25–29 |
24–29 |
24–29 |
22–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
25 |
0% |
24–28 |
24–28 |
23–29 |
22–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–26 |
21–27 |
20–28 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
24 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–26 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar |
24 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–24 |
19–25 |
19–26 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
20 |
0% |
18–21 |
17–22 |
17–22 |
16–23 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
19 |
0% |
17–21 |
17–21 |
17–22 |
15–23 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
16 |
0% |
15–18 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
13–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
18 |
16 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
13–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
15 |
0% |
13–16 |
13–17 |
13–17 |
12–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
12 |
0% |
10–14 |
10–14 |
9–14 |
9–15 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.2% |
100% |
Majority |
33 |
1.4% |
99.8% |
|
34 |
7% |
98% |
|
35 |
18% |
91% |
Last Result |
36 |
27% |
73% |
|
37 |
24% |
46% |
Median |
38 |
12% |
22% |
|
39 |
7% |
10% |
|
40 |
2% |
2% |
|
41 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
28 |
3% |
99.1% |
|
29 |
14% |
96% |
|
30 |
23% |
82% |
|
31 |
29% |
59% |
Last Result, Median |
32 |
19% |
29% |
Majority |
33 |
7% |
10% |
|
34 |
2% |
3% |
|
35 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
36 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
26 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
27 |
13% |
96% |
Last Result |
28 |
24% |
83% |
|
29 |
30% |
59% |
Median |
30 |
15% |
28% |
|
31 |
8% |
13% |
|
32 |
3% |
5% |
Majority |
33 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
34 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.6% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
4% |
99.4% |
|
26 |
14% |
95% |
|
27 |
31% |
81% |
|
28 |
26% |
50% |
Median |
29 |
17% |
25% |
|
30 |
5% |
8% |
|
31 |
2% |
3% |
|
32 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
25 |
8% |
98% |
|
26 |
11% |
89% |
|
27 |
20% |
78% |
|
28 |
27% |
58% |
Last Result, Median |
29 |
16% |
30% |
|
30 |
11% |
14% |
|
31 |
2% |
3% |
|
32 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
Majority |
33 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
8% |
99.4% |
|
26 |
25% |
91% |
|
27 |
25% |
66% |
Median |
28 |
28% |
42% |
|
29 |
6% |
14% |
|
30 |
3% |
8% |
|
31 |
2% |
4% |
|
32 |
2% |
2% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
0.9% |
99.4% |
|
24 |
6% |
98% |
|
25 |
12% |
92% |
|
26 |
22% |
80% |
|
27 |
27% |
58% |
Median |
28 |
19% |
32% |
|
29 |
11% |
13% |
|
30 |
2% |
2% |
|
31 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
24 |
20% |
97% |
|
25 |
30% |
77% |
|
26 |
24% |
47% |
Median |
27 |
12% |
23% |
|
28 |
7% |
11% |
|
29 |
2% |
4% |
|
30 |
2% |
2% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
6% |
98% |
|
22 |
22% |
92% |
|
23 |
32% |
70% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
23% |
38% |
|
25 |
10% |
15% |
|
26 |
3% |
6% |
|
27 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
28 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
0.7% |
99.6% |
|
21 |
5% |
99.0% |
|
22 |
13% |
93% |
|
23 |
27% |
80% |
|
24 |
30% |
54% |
Median |
25 |
18% |
24% |
|
26 |
5% |
7% |
Last Result |
27 |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
20 |
10% |
96% |
|
21 |
17% |
86% |
|
22 |
27% |
69% |
Median |
23 |
26% |
42% |
|
24 |
13% |
17% |
Last Result |
25 |
3% |
4% |
|
26 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
17 |
6% |
98% |
|
18 |
17% |
92% |
|
19 |
24% |
75% |
|
20 |
23% |
51% |
Median |
21 |
18% |
28% |
|
22 |
8% |
10% |
|
23 |
2% |
2% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
16 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
17 |
12% |
98% |
|
18 |
18% |
86% |
|
19 |
22% |
68% |
Median |
20 |
27% |
46% |
|
21 |
15% |
19% |
|
22 |
3% |
4% |
|
23 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.9% |
99.7% |
|
14 |
4% |
98.8% |
|
15 |
21% |
95% |
|
16 |
25% |
73% |
|
17 |
30% |
49% |
Median |
18 |
16% |
18% |
|
19 |
1.4% |
2% |
Last Result |
20 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
12% |
99.2% |
|
15 |
20% |
88% |
|
16 |
30% |
67% |
Median |
17 |
29% |
38% |
|
18 |
7% |
8% |
Last Result |
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
12 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
13 |
8% |
98% |
|
14 |
26% |
90% |
|
15 |
30% |
64% |
Median |
16 |
25% |
33% |
|
17 |
7% |
8% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
9 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
10 |
8% |
96% |
|
11 |
22% |
88% |
|
12 |
29% |
65% |
Median |
13 |
23% |
36% |
|
14 |
12% |
13% |
|
15 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 21–28 April 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 946
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.58%