Opinion Poll by MMR, 21–28 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 28.8% 26.9–30.7% 26.4–31.2% 26.0–31.7% 25.1–32.7%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.2–14.8% 10.9–15.2% 10.3–15.9%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 11.3% 10.1–12.7% 9.7–13.1% 9.4–13.5% 8.9–14.2%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 10.6% 9.4–12.0% 9.1–12.3% 8.8–12.7% 8.2–13.4%
Píratar 9.2% 9.6% 8.5–11.0% 8.2–11.3% 7.9–11.7% 7.4–12.3%
Viðreisn 6.7% 8.8% 7.7–10.1% 7.4–10.4% 7.1–10.7% 6.6–11.4%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.5% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.3%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 5.8% 4.9–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.5% 4.1–8.0%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.7–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.2–6.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 20 19–22 19–23 18–24 17–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 6–11
Samfylkingin 7 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Píratar 6 6 5–7 5–7 4–8 4–8
Viðreisn 4 6 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–5
Miðflokkurinn 7 3 1–4 1–4 1–5 1–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100% Last Result
17 0.5% 99.9%  
18 3% 99.4%  
19 37% 97%  
20 31% 59% Median
21 16% 29%  
22 8% 13%  
23 3% 5%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.4% 0.4%  
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.7% 100%  
7 7% 99.3%  
8 31% 93%  
9 36% 62% Median
10 25% 26%  
11 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100%  
6 19% 99.4%  
7 46% 81% Last Result, Median
8 28% 34%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.8% 0.8%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 2% 99.8%  
6 13% 97%  
7 19% 84%  
8 58% 65% Last Result, Median
9 5% 7%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 18% 97%  
6 47% 79% Last Result, Median
7 28% 32%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 5% 100% Last Result
5 42% 95%  
6 46% 53% Median
7 7% 7%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 0% 89%  
2 0.2% 89%  
3 23% 89%  
4 54% 65% Median
5 11% 11%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 17% 99.8%  
2 0.2% 83%  
3 35% 83% Median
4 45% 48%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Median
1 0% 34%  
2 0.2% 34%  
3 28% 34%  
4 6% 6% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 36 100% 35–38 34–39 34–39 33–40
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 31 29% 29–32 29–33 28–34 27–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 29 5% 27–31 27–31 26–32 26–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 28 0.4% 26–29 26–30 25–31 24–31
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 28 1.0% 25–30 25–30 25–31 23–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 27 2% 26–29 25–30 25–31 24–32
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 27 0% 25–29 24–29 24–29 22–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 25 0% 24–28 24–28 23–29 22–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 22–25 21–26 21–27 20–28
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 22–25 21–26 21–26 20–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 24 22 0% 20–24 20–24 19–25 19–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 20 0% 18–21 17–22 17–22 16–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 19 0% 17–21 17–21 17–22 15–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 16 0% 15–18 14–18 14–18 13–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 16 0% 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 15 0% 13–16 13–17 13–17 12–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 12 0% 10–14 10–14 9–14 9–15

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100% Majority
33 1.4% 99.8%  
34 7% 98%  
35 18% 91% Last Result
36 27% 73%  
37 24% 46% Median
38 12% 22%  
39 7% 10%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.5%  
42 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.7% 99.8%  
28 3% 99.1%  
29 14% 96%  
30 23% 82%  
31 29% 59% Last Result, Median
32 19% 29% Majority
33 7% 10%  
34 2% 3%  
35 1.4% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 4% 99.7%  
27 13% 96% Last Result
28 24% 83%  
29 30% 59% Median
30 15% 28%  
31 8% 13%  
32 3% 5% Majority
33 1.3% 2%  
34 0.7% 0.9%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.6% 100% Last Result
25 4% 99.4%  
26 14% 95%  
27 31% 81%  
28 26% 50% Median
29 17% 25%  
30 5% 8%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.3% 0.4% Majority
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.6% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.3%  
25 8% 98%  
26 11% 89%  
27 20% 78%  
28 27% 58% Last Result, Median
29 16% 30%  
30 11% 14%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.7% 1.0% Majority
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100% Last Result
24 0.6% 99.9%  
25 8% 99.4%  
26 25% 91%  
27 25% 66% Median
28 28% 42%  
29 6% 14%  
30 3% 8%  
31 2% 4%  
32 2% 2% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.5% 99.9%  
23 0.9% 99.4%  
24 6% 98%  
25 12% 92%  
26 22% 80%  
27 27% 58% Median
28 19% 32%  
29 11% 13%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.5% 0.5%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0.5% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.5%  
24 20% 97%  
25 30% 77%  
26 24% 47% Median
27 12% 23%  
28 7% 11%  
29 2% 4%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 2% 99.8%  
21 6% 98%  
22 22% 92%  
23 32% 70% Last Result, Median
24 23% 38%  
25 10% 15%  
26 3% 6%  
27 1.3% 3%  
28 1.3% 1.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9%  
20 0.7% 99.6%  
21 5% 99.0%  
22 13% 93%  
23 27% 80%  
24 30% 54% Median
25 18% 24%  
26 5% 7% Last Result
27 1.1% 1.4%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.3% 99.9%  
19 4% 99.6%  
20 10% 96%  
21 17% 86%  
22 27% 69% Median
23 26% 42%  
24 13% 17% Last Result
25 3% 4%  
26 0.9% 1.1%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.5%  
17 6% 98%  
18 17% 92%  
19 24% 75%  
20 23% 51% Median
21 18% 28%  
22 8% 10%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.6% 100%  
16 2% 99.4%  
17 12% 98%  
18 18% 86%  
19 22% 68% Median
20 27% 46%  
21 15% 19%  
22 3% 4%  
23 1.0% 1.1%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 0.9% 99.7%  
14 4% 98.8%  
15 21% 95%  
16 25% 73%  
17 30% 49% Median
18 16% 18%  
19 1.4% 2% Last Result
20 0.9% 0.9%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.6% 99.9%  
14 12% 99.2%  
15 20% 88%  
16 30% 67% Median
17 29% 38%  
18 7% 8% Last Result
19 2% 2%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 2% 99.6%  
13 8% 98%  
14 26% 90%  
15 30% 64% Median
16 25% 33%  
17 7% 8% Last Result
18 0.7% 0.7%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 4% 99.6%  
10 8% 96%  
11 22% 88%  
12 29% 65% Median
13 23% 36%  
14 12% 13%  
15 0.7% 0.8%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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