Opinion Poll by Gallup, 1–30 April 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
23.8% |
22.6–25.1% |
22.2–25.4% |
21.9–25.8% |
21.3–26.4% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
14.3% |
13.3–15.4% |
13.0–15.7% |
12.8–15.9% |
12.3–16.5% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
12.0% |
11.1–13.0% |
10.8–13.3% |
10.6–13.5% |
10.2–14.0% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
12.0% |
11.1–13.0% |
10.8–13.3% |
10.6–13.5% |
10.2–14.0% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
10.1% |
9.2–11.0% |
9.0–11.3% |
8.8–11.5% |
8.4–12.0% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.6% |
8.8–10.5% |
8.6–10.8% |
8.4–11.0% |
8.0–11.5% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
8.2% |
7.4–9.0% |
7.2–9.3% |
7.0–9.5% |
6.7–9.9% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.4–5.7% |
4.2–5.9% |
4.1–6.1% |
3.8–6.4% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.7% |
4.1–5.4% |
4.0–5.6% |
3.9–5.8% |
3.6–6.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
14 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
15 |
8% |
97% |
|
16 |
11% |
89% |
Last Result |
17 |
30% |
77% |
Median |
18 |
45% |
47% |
|
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
3% |
100% |
|
9 |
35% |
97% |
|
10 |
42% |
61% |
Median |
11 |
19% |
19% |
Last Result |
12 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
9% |
100% |
|
7 |
24% |
91% |
Last Result |
8 |
56% |
68% |
Median |
9 |
11% |
12% |
|
10 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
3% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
16% |
97% |
|
8 |
52% |
80% |
Median |
9 |
28% |
29% |
|
10 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
6% |
100% |
|
6 |
18% |
94% |
|
7 |
44% |
75% |
Median |
8 |
32% |
32% |
Last Result |
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
15% |
100% |
|
6 |
68% |
85% |
Median |
7 |
16% |
17% |
|
8 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
12% |
100% |
|
5 |
58% |
88% |
Median |
6 |
30% |
30% |
|
7 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
59% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
41% |
|
2 |
0% |
41% |
|
3 |
37% |
41% |
|
4 |
4% |
4% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
72% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
28% |
|
2 |
0% |
28% |
|
3 |
27% |
28% |
|
4 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
34 |
96% |
32–36 |
32–36 |
31–36 |
30–37 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn |
28 |
32 |
62% |
29–33 |
28–34 |
28–34 |
27–35 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
30 |
5% |
27–31 |
27–32 |
26–32 |
26–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
30 |
0.3% |
27–31 |
27–31 |
26–31 |
25–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
27 |
0% |
25–29 |
25–29 |
24–29 |
24–29 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin |
24 |
26 |
0% |
23–27 |
23–27 |
23–28 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
25 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–26 |
22–27 |
21–27 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
25 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–26 |
21–27 |
21–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
24 |
0% |
22–25 |
22–26 |
21–26 |
21–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–25 |
20–25 |
20–25 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
19–24 |
19–25 |
19–26 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–23 |
19–24 |
19–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
23 |
0% |
21–23 |
20–24 |
19–24 |
18–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
18 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–19 |
15–19 |
15–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
18 |
18 |
0% |
16–19 |
15–19 |
15–19 |
15–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
17 |
0% |
15–18 |
15–18 |
14–19 |
14–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
15 |
0% |
14–16 |
13–16 |
13–17 |
13–17 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
3% |
99.1% |
|
32 |
16% |
96% |
Majority |
33 |
18% |
80% |
|
34 |
28% |
62% |
Median |
35 |
15% |
34% |
Last Result |
36 |
18% |
19% |
|
37 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
27 |
1.2% |
99.7% |
|
28 |
6% |
98% |
Last Result |
29 |
8% |
92% |
|
30 |
11% |
84% |
|
31 |
11% |
73% |
|
32 |
21% |
62% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
31% |
40% |
|
34 |
8% |
9% |
|
35 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
36 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
26 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
27 |
13% |
96% |
|
28 |
11% |
84% |
|
29 |
11% |
73% |
|
30 |
14% |
62% |
Median |
31 |
42% |
48% |
|
32 |
4% |
5% |
Majority |
33 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
27 |
9% |
97% |
|
28 |
12% |
88% |
|
29 |
24% |
76% |
Median |
30 |
34% |
52% |
|
31 |
18% |
18% |
Last Result |
32 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
24 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
25 |
13% |
96% |
|
26 |
23% |
84% |
|
27 |
28% |
61% |
Last Result, Median |
28 |
17% |
33% |
|
29 |
15% |
16% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.8% |
99.1% |
|
23 |
11% |
98% |
|
24 |
14% |
87% |
Last Result |
25 |
16% |
73% |
|
26 |
21% |
57% |
Median |
27 |
32% |
36% |
|
28 |
4% |
4% |
|
29 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
23 |
20% |
97% |
Last Result |
24 |
8% |
77% |
|
25 |
30% |
69% |
Median |
26 |
34% |
38% |
|
27 |
4% |
4% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
9% |
97% |
|
23 |
16% |
88% |
|
24 |
11% |
72% |
|
25 |
30% |
60% |
Median |
26 |
27% |
30% |
Last Result |
27 |
3% |
3% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
22 |
10% |
97% |
|
23 |
13% |
87% |
|
24 |
26% |
74% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
38% |
47% |
|
26 |
9% |
9% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
20 |
3% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
21 |
9% |
97% |
|
22 |
14% |
88% |
|
23 |
26% |
74% |
Median |
24 |
42% |
49% |
|
25 |
7% |
7% |
|
26 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
5% |
100% |
|
20 |
4% |
95% |
|
21 |
14% |
91% |
|
22 |
18% |
77% |
|
23 |
18% |
59% |
Median |
24 |
36% |
41% |
|
25 |
4% |
5% |
Last Result |
26 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
11% |
96% |
|
21 |
21% |
85% |
|
22 |
18% |
64% |
Median |
23 |
42% |
46% |
|
24 |
3% |
4% |
|
25 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
20 |
7% |
97% |
|
21 |
15% |
90% |
|
22 |
16% |
75% |
Median |
23 |
50% |
59% |
Last Result |
24 |
9% |
9% |
|
25 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
3% |
100% |
|
16 |
11% |
97% |
|
17 |
23% |
86% |
Last Result |
18 |
27% |
63% |
Median |
19 |
35% |
36% |
|
20 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
8% |
100% |
|
16 |
17% |
92% |
|
17 |
18% |
75% |
|
18 |
31% |
56% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
24% |
25% |
|
20 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
4% |
100% |
|
15 |
12% |
96% |
|
16 |
17% |
84% |
|
17 |
39% |
67% |
Median |
18 |
25% |
28% |
|
19 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
13 |
9% |
99.6% |
|
14 |
23% |
90% |
|
15 |
31% |
67% |
Median |
16 |
32% |
36% |
|
17 |
4% |
4% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 1–30 April 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1884
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.82%