Opinion Poll by Gallup, 1–30 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.8% 22.6–25.1% 22.2–25.4% 21.9–25.8% 21.3–26.4%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 14.3% 13.3–15.4% 13.0–15.7% 12.8–15.9% 12.3–16.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Píratar 9.2% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 10.1% 9.2–11.0% 9.0–11.3% 8.8–11.5% 8.4–12.0%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.6% 8.8–10.5% 8.6–10.8% 8.4–11.0% 8.0–11.5%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 8.2% 7.4–9.0% 7.2–9.3% 7.0–9.5% 6.7–9.9%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.8–6.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.7% 4.1–5.4% 4.0–5.6% 3.9–5.8% 3.6–6.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 15–18 15–18 14–18 14–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 10 9–11 9–11 8–11 8–11
Samfylkingin 7 8 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Píratar 6 8 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–8
Viðreisn 4 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 3% 99.8%  
15 8% 97%  
16 11% 89% Last Result
17 30% 77% Median
18 45% 47%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 3% 100%  
9 35% 97%  
10 42% 61% Median
11 19% 19% Last Result
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 9% 100%  
7 24% 91% Last Result
8 56% 68% Median
9 11% 12%  
10 1.1% 1.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100% Last Result
7 16% 97%  
8 52% 80% Median
9 28% 29%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 6% 100%  
6 18% 94%  
7 44% 75% Median
8 32% 32% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 15% 100%  
6 68% 85% Median
7 16% 17%  
8 1.0% 1.0%  
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 12% 100%  
5 58% 88% Median
6 30% 30%  
7 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 59% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 41%  
2 0% 41%  
3 37% 41%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 72% 100% Median
1 0% 28%  
2 0% 28%  
3 27% 28%  
4 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 34 96% 32–36 32–36 31–36 30–37
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn 28 32 62% 29–33 28–34 28–34 27–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 30 5% 27–31 27–32 26–32 26–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 30 0.3% 27–31 27–31 26–31 25–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 27 0% 25–29 25–29 24–29 24–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin 24 26 0% 23–27 23–27 23–28 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 23–26 23–26 22–27 21–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 22–26 22–26 21–27 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 24 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 21–24 21–25 20–25 20–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 23 0% 21–24 19–24 19–25 19–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–23 20–23 19–24 19–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 23 0% 21–23 20–24 19–24 18–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 18 0% 16–19 16–19 15–19 15–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 18 0% 16–19 15–19 15–19 15–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 17 0% 15–18 15–18 14–19 14–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 15 0% 14–16 13–16 13–17 13–17

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.8% 99.9%  
31 3% 99.1%  
32 16% 96% Majority
33 18% 80%  
34 28% 62% Median
35 15% 34% Last Result
36 18% 19%  
37 0.5% 0.5%  
38 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 1.2% 99.7%  
28 6% 98% Last Result
29 8% 92%  
30 11% 84%  
31 11% 73%  
32 21% 62% Median, Majority
33 31% 40%  
34 8% 9%  
35 0.6% 0.9%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 4% 99.8%  
27 13% 96%  
28 11% 84%  
29 11% 73%  
30 14% 62% Median
31 42% 48%  
32 4% 5% Majority
33 2% 2% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.8% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.2%  
27 9% 97%  
28 12% 88%  
29 24% 76% Median
30 34% 52%  
31 18% 18% Last Result
32 0.3% 0.3% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 3% 99.6%  
25 13% 96%  
26 23% 84%  
27 28% 61% Last Result, Median
28 17% 33%  
29 15% 16%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.9% 100%  
22 0.8% 99.1%  
23 11% 98%  
24 14% 87% Last Result
25 16% 73%  
26 21% 57% Median
27 32% 36%  
28 4% 4%  
29 0.3% 0.4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.8%  
22 3% 99.3%  
23 20% 97% Last Result
24 8% 77%  
25 30% 69% Median
26 34% 38%  
27 4% 4%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 3% 99.9%  
22 9% 97%  
23 16% 88%  
24 11% 72%  
25 30% 60% Median
26 27% 30% Last Result
27 3% 3%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 3% 99.5%  
22 10% 97%  
23 13% 87%  
24 26% 74% Last Result, Median
25 38% 47%  
26 9% 9%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 3% 99.7% Last Result
21 9% 97%  
22 14% 88%  
23 26% 74% Median
24 42% 49%  
25 7% 7%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 5% 100%  
20 4% 95%  
21 14% 91%  
22 18% 77%  
23 18% 59% Median
24 36% 41%  
25 4% 5% Last Result
26 0.8% 0.9%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 4% 99.9%  
20 11% 96%  
21 21% 85%  
22 18% 64% Median
23 42% 46%  
24 3% 4%  
25 1.4% 1.4%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.9% 100%  
19 2% 99.1%  
20 7% 97%  
21 15% 90%  
22 16% 75% Median
23 50% 59% Last Result
24 9% 9%  
25 0.5% 0.5%  
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 3% 100%  
16 11% 97%  
17 23% 86% Last Result
18 27% 63% Median
19 35% 36%  
20 0.9% 1.0%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 8% 100%  
16 17% 92%  
17 18% 75%  
18 31% 56% Last Result, Median
19 24% 25%  
20 1.3% 1.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 4% 100%  
15 12% 96%  
16 17% 84%  
17 39% 67% Median
18 25% 28%  
19 2% 3% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 9% 99.6%  
14 23% 90%  
15 31% 67% Median
16 32% 36%  
17 4% 4%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations