Opinion Poll by MMR, 7–12 May 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
25.6% |
23.9–27.5% |
23.4–28.0% |
22.9–28.5% |
22.1–29.4% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
13.1% |
11.8–14.6% |
11.4–15.0% |
11.1–15.4% |
10.5–16.2% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
12.6% |
11.3–14.1% |
10.9–14.5% |
10.6–14.9% |
10.0–15.6% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.3% |
10.1–12.8% |
9.8–13.2% |
9.5–13.5% |
8.9–14.2% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
10.9% |
9.7–12.3% |
9.4–12.7% |
9.1–13.1% |
8.5–13.7% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.6% |
9.4–12.0% |
9.1–12.4% |
8.8–12.7% |
8.3–13.4% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
5.7% |
4.8–6.8% |
4.6–7.1% |
4.4–7.3% |
4.0–7.9% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
5.7% |
4.8–6.8% |
4.6–7.1% |
4.4–7.3% |
4.0–7.9% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
3.3% |
2.6–4.1% |
2.4–4.4% |
2.3–4.6% |
2.0–5.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
16 |
5% |
97% |
Last Result |
17 |
32% |
92% |
|
18 |
32% |
60% |
Median |
19 |
23% |
29% |
|
20 |
5% |
6% |
|
21 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
7 |
6% |
99.8% |
|
8 |
34% |
94% |
|
9 |
43% |
60% |
Median |
10 |
15% |
17% |
|
11 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
Last Result |
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
7 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
8 |
35% |
98% |
Last Result |
9 |
34% |
63% |
Median |
10 |
26% |
29% |
|
11 |
2% |
3% |
|
12 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
6 |
11% |
99.4% |
Last Result |
7 |
41% |
89% |
Median |
8 |
41% |
47% |
|
9 |
5% |
6% |
|
10 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
6 |
17% |
99.1% |
|
7 |
53% |
82% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
26% |
29% |
|
9 |
3% |
3% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
3% |
100% |
|
6 |
38% |
97% |
|
7 |
41% |
60% |
Median |
8 |
17% |
19% |
|
9 |
2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
1 |
16% |
99.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
83% |
|
3 |
44% |
83% |
Median |
4 |
36% |
39% |
|
5 |
3% |
3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
12% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
88% |
|
2 |
0% |
88% |
|
3 |
44% |
88% |
Median |
4 |
40% |
43% |
|
5 |
3% |
3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.6% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
36 |
99.7% |
34–37 |
33–38 |
33–39 |
32–40 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn |
28 |
30 |
14% |
28–32 |
28–33 |
27–34 |
26–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
30 |
11% |
28–32 |
27–32 |
27–33 |
26–34 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
28 |
0.6% |
26–29 |
26–30 |
25–31 |
24–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
27 |
0% |
25–29 |
25–29 |
24–30 |
23–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
26 |
0% |
25–29 |
25–29 |
24–29 |
23–30 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
26 |
25 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–27 |
22–27 |
21–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
25 |
0% |
23–27 |
23–27 |
22–27 |
22–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
24 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–27 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin |
24 |
23 |
0% |
21–25 |
21–26 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–23 |
18–23 |
17–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
21 |
0% |
19–23 |
18–23 |
18–23 |
17–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
19 |
0% |
17–21 |
17–21 |
16–22 |
15–23 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
18 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–19 |
15–20 |
15–21 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
16 |
0% |
15–18 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
13–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
18 |
16 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
13–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
12 |
0% |
10–13 |
10–14 |
9–14 |
8–15 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
32 |
1.3% |
99.7% |
Majority |
33 |
5% |
98% |
|
34 |
21% |
94% |
|
35 |
23% |
73% |
Last Result |
36 |
30% |
50% |
Median |
37 |
11% |
20% |
|
38 |
6% |
9% |
|
39 |
2% |
3% |
|
40 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
27 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
28 |
11% |
97% |
Last Result |
29 |
17% |
86% |
|
30 |
39% |
69% |
Median |
31 |
16% |
30% |
|
32 |
7% |
14% |
Majority |
33 |
4% |
7% |
|
34 |
2% |
3% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
36 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.9% |
99.6% |
|
27 |
4% |
98.7% |
|
28 |
11% |
95% |
|
29 |
23% |
84% |
|
30 |
29% |
61% |
Median |
31 |
20% |
32% |
Last Result |
32 |
8% |
11% |
Majority |
33 |
3% |
3% |
|
34 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
26 |
12% |
97% |
|
27 |
28% |
85% |
|
28 |
22% |
57% |
Median |
29 |
27% |
35% |
|
30 |
6% |
8% |
|
31 |
2% |
3% |
|
32 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
3% |
98.8% |
Last Result |
25 |
9% |
96% |
|
26 |
26% |
86% |
|
27 |
38% |
60% |
Median |
28 |
11% |
22% |
|
29 |
8% |
11% |
|
30 |
3% |
3% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
25 |
18% |
96% |
|
26 |
29% |
78% |
|
27 |
28% |
49% |
Last Result, Median |
28 |
11% |
21% |
|
29 |
8% |
10% |
|
30 |
2% |
2% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
23 |
14% |
97% |
|
24 |
26% |
84% |
|
25 |
27% |
58% |
Median |
26 |
23% |
30% |
Last Result |
27 |
5% |
7% |
|
28 |
2% |
2% |
|
29 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
22 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
23 |
8% |
97% |
Last Result |
24 |
25% |
89% |
|
25 |
31% |
65% |
Median |
26 |
23% |
33% |
|
27 |
9% |
11% |
|
28 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
29 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
21 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
23 |
16% |
97% |
|
24 |
32% |
81% |
|
25 |
24% |
49% |
Median |
26 |
18% |
26% |
|
27 |
6% |
8% |
|
28 |
2% |
2% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
9% |
98.9% |
|
22 |
18% |
90% |
|
23 |
29% |
72% |
Median |
24 |
27% |
43% |
Last Result |
25 |
10% |
16% |
|
26 |
5% |
6% |
|
27 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
18 |
3% |
99.2% |
|
19 |
12% |
97% |
|
20 |
31% |
84% |
|
21 |
22% |
53% |
Median |
22 |
25% |
31% |
|
23 |
4% |
6% |
|
24 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
18 |
4% |
98.9% |
|
19 |
9% |
95% |
|
20 |
28% |
85% |
|
21 |
17% |
57% |
Median |
22 |
28% |
41% |
|
23 |
10% |
13% |
Last Result |
24 |
2% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
16 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
17 |
11% |
97% |
|
18 |
24% |
86% |
|
19 |
30% |
62% |
Median |
20 |
18% |
31% |
|
21 |
11% |
14% |
|
22 |
2% |
3% |
|
23 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
15 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
16 |
11% |
97% |
|
17 |
35% |
86% |
|
18 |
28% |
52% |
Median |
19 |
20% |
24% |
Last Result |
20 |
3% |
4% |
|
21 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
14 |
5% |
99.3% |
|
15 |
24% |
94% |
|
16 |
34% |
70% |
Median |
17 |
25% |
36% |
Last Result |
18 |
9% |
11% |
|
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
9% |
98.7% |
|
15 |
28% |
90% |
|
16 |
36% |
62% |
Median |
17 |
19% |
26% |
|
18 |
6% |
7% |
Last Result |
19 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
9 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
10 |
10% |
96% |
|
11 |
30% |
87% |
|
12 |
23% |
56% |
Median |
13 |
27% |
33% |
|
14 |
6% |
7% |
|
15 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 7–12 May 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 953
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.96%