Opinion Poll by MMR, 7–12 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 25.6% 23.9–27.5% 23.4–28.0% 22.9–28.5% 22.1–29.4%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.4–15.0% 11.1–15.4% 10.5–16.2%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 12.6% 11.3–14.1% 10.9–14.5% 10.6–14.9% 10.0–15.6%
Píratar 9.2% 11.3% 10.1–12.8% 9.8–13.2% 9.5–13.5% 8.9–14.2%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.1–13.1% 8.5–13.7%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.6% 9.4–12.0% 9.1–12.4% 8.8–12.7% 8.3–13.4%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 5.7% 4.8–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.3% 4.0–7.9%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 5.7% 4.8–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.3% 4.0–7.9%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.3% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 18 17–19 16–20 15–20 15–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 8–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 9 8–10 8–10 8–11 7–12
Píratar 6 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Samfylkingin 7 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Viðreisn 4 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Miðflokkurinn 7 3 1–4 1–4 1–5 0–5
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.2% 99.9%  
15 3% 99.7%  
16 5% 97% Last Result
17 32% 92%  
18 32% 60% Median
19 23% 29%  
20 5% 6%  
21 0.7% 0.7%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 6% 99.8%  
8 34% 94%  
9 43% 60% Median
10 15% 17%  
11 1.2% 1.3% Last Result
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 2% 99.6%  
8 35% 98% Last Result
9 34% 63% Median
10 26% 29%  
11 2% 3%  
12 1.1% 1.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100%  
6 11% 99.4% Last Result
7 41% 89% Median
8 41% 47%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.9% 100%  
6 17% 99.1%  
7 53% 82% Last Result, Median
8 26% 29%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 3% 100%  
6 38% 97%  
7 41% 60% Median
8 17% 19%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 16% 99.1%  
2 0% 83%  
3 44% 83% Median
4 36% 39%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 0% 88%  
2 0% 88%  
3 44% 88% Median
4 40% 43%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 36 99.7% 34–37 33–38 33–39 32–40
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn 28 30 14% 28–32 28–33 27–34 26–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 30 11% 28–32 27–32 27–33 26–34
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 33 28 0.6% 26–29 26–30 25–31 24–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 27 0% 25–29 25–29 24–30 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 26 0% 25–29 25–29 24–29 23–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 26 25 0% 23–26 23–27 22–27 21–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 23–27 23–27 22–27 22–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 24 0% 23–26 23–27 22–27 21–28
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin 24 23 0% 21–25 21–26 21–26 20–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 21 0% 19–22 19–23 18–23 17–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 21 0% 19–23 18–23 18–23 17–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 19 0% 17–21 17–21 16–22 15–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 18 0% 16–19 16–19 15–20 15–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 16 0% 15–18 14–18 14–18 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 16 0% 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 12 0% 10–13 10–14 9–14 8–15

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.3% 100%  
32 1.3% 99.7% Majority
33 5% 98%  
34 21% 94%  
35 23% 73% Last Result
36 30% 50% Median
37 11% 20%  
38 6% 9%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.5% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.6% 100%  
27 2% 99.4%  
28 11% 97% Last Result
29 17% 86%  
30 39% 69% Median
31 16% 30%  
32 7% 14% Majority
33 4% 7%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.4% 100%  
26 0.9% 99.6%  
27 4% 98.7%  
28 11% 95%  
29 23% 84%  
30 29% 61% Median
31 20% 32% Last Result
32 8% 11% Majority
33 3% 3%  
34 0.6% 0.6%  
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.4%  
26 12% 97%  
27 28% 85%  
28 22% 57% Median
29 27% 35%  
30 6% 8%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.5% 0.6% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.1% 99.9%  
24 3% 98.8% Last Result
25 9% 96%  
26 26% 86%  
27 38% 60% Median
28 11% 22%  
29 8% 11%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.2% 99.9%  
24 2% 98.7%  
25 18% 96%  
26 29% 78%  
27 28% 49% Last Result, Median
28 11% 21%  
29 8% 10%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.7% 100%  
22 2% 99.3%  
23 14% 97%  
24 26% 84%  
25 27% 58% Median
26 23% 30% Last Result
27 5% 7%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.5% 0.6%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.4% 100%  
22 3% 99.5%  
23 8% 97% Last Result
24 25% 89%  
25 31% 65% Median
26 23% 33%  
27 9% 11%  
28 1.5% 2%  
29 0.5% 0.6%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
21 0.6% 99.9%  
22 2% 99.3%  
23 16% 97%  
24 32% 81%  
25 24% 49% Median
26 18% 26%  
27 6% 8%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.0% 99.9%  
21 9% 98.9%  
22 18% 90%  
23 29% 72% Median
24 27% 43% Last Result
25 10% 16%  
26 5% 6%  
27 1.3% 1.4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.6% 99.8%  
18 3% 99.2%  
19 12% 97%  
20 31% 84%  
21 22% 53% Median
22 25% 31%  
23 4% 6%  
24 1.3% 2%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.9% 99.8%  
18 4% 98.9%  
19 9% 95%  
20 28% 85%  
21 17% 57% Median
22 28% 41%  
23 10% 13% Last Result
24 2% 2%  
25 0.4% 0.4%  
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.6% 100%  
16 2% 99.4%  
17 11% 97%  
18 24% 86%  
19 30% 62% Median
20 18% 31%  
21 11% 14%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.8% 0.8%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 3% 99.7%  
16 11% 97%  
17 35% 86%  
18 28% 52% Median
19 20% 24% Last Result
20 3% 4%  
21 0.9% 1.1%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.6% 100%  
14 5% 99.3%  
15 24% 94%  
16 34% 70% Median
17 25% 36% Last Result
18 9% 11%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.2% 99.9%  
14 9% 98.7%  
15 28% 90%  
16 36% 62% Median
17 19% 26%  
18 6% 7% Last Result
19 1.0% 1.2%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.6% 100%  
9 3% 99.4%  
10 10% 96%  
11 30% 87%  
12 23% 56% Median
13 27% 33%  
14 6% 7%  
15 0.8% 0.9%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations