Opinion Poll by Gallup, 1–31 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.5% 22.3–24.8% 21.9–25.2% 21.7–25.5% 21.1–26.1%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 14.7% 13.7–15.8% 13.4–16.1% 13.2–16.4% 12.7–16.9%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 12.4% 11.5–13.4% 11.2–13.7% 11.0–14.0% 10.6–14.5%
Píratar 9.2% 11.0% 10.1–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.5% 9.3–13.0%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.9% 10.0–11.9% 9.8–12.1% 9.6–12.4% 9.1–12.8%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 10.4% 9.5–11.4% 9.3–11.6% 9.1–11.9% 8.7–12.3%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 7.2% 6.5–8.0% 6.3–8.3% 6.1–8.5% 5.8–8.9%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 5.4% 4.8–6.1% 4.6–6.4% 4.5–6.5% 4.2–6.9%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.3% 3.7–5.0% 3.6–5.2% 3.5–5.3% 3.2–5.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 15–18 15–19 14–19 14–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 10 9–10 9–11 9–11 8–11
Samfylkingin 7 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–10
Píratar 6 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Viðreisn 4 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–8
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 3% 99.8%  
15 37% 97%  
16 29% 60% Last Result, Median
17 13% 31%  
18 11% 18%  
19 7% 7%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.8% 100%  
9 26% 99.2%  
10 67% 74% Median
11 6% 6% Last Result
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 16% 99.7% Last Result
8 62% 84% Median
9 21% 22%  
10 0.8% 0.8%  
11 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 16% 99.5% Last Result
7 56% 83% Median
8 27% 27%  
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.5% 100%  
6 18% 99.5%  
7 71% 81% Median
8 10% 11%  
9 0.9% 0.9%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 13% 98%  
7 30% 85%  
8 54% 54% Last Result, Median
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.9% 100%  
4 47% 99.1%  
5 50% 52% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 0% 88%  
2 0% 88%  
3 63% 88% Median
4 25% 25%  
5 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0.2% 6%  
3 6% 6%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 33 97% 32–35 32–36 31–36 31–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 32 66% 30–34 30–34 29–35 28–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 30 8% 28–31 28–32 27–32 26–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 28 0% 27–30 26–30 26–30 25–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 26 0% 25–28 24–28 24–29 24–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 24 25 0% 24–26 23–27 23–27 22–28
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 23–27 23–27 22–27 22–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 24 0% 23–26 22–27 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 22–26 22–26 21–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 20–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 22 0% 21–24 21–24 21–24 20–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 21 0% 19–22 19–23 19–24 18–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–23 20–23 19–23 19–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 17 0% 16–18 16–18 16–19 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 18 0% 17–19 17–19 16–19 16–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 17 0% 15–18 15–18 15–19 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 14 0% 13–15 13–15 13–16 13–16

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 3% 99.6%  
32 17% 97% Majority
33 51% 79%  
34 11% 28% Median
35 8% 17% Last Result
36 9% 9%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0.7% 99.9% Last Result
29 3% 99.2%  
30 11% 96%  
31 19% 85%  
32 36% 66% Median, Majority
33 19% 30%  
34 8% 11%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 1.3% 100%  
27 3% 98.7%  
28 13% 95%  
29 10% 83%  
30 54% 73%  
31 10% 18% Median
32 8% 8% Majority
33 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.9%  
26 8% 99.2%  
27 18% 91%  
28 51% 73%  
29 6% 22% Median
30 14% 16%  
31 2% 2% Last Result
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 8% 99.6%  
25 34% 91%  
26 32% 57% Median
27 9% 25% Last Result
28 12% 16%  
29 4% 4%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.8% 99.9%  
23 7% 99.1%  
24 25% 92% Last Result
25 38% 67% Median
26 20% 29%  
27 8% 9%  
28 0.6% 0.7%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 3% 100%  
23 7% 97%  
24 10% 90%  
25 37% 80%  
26 31% 43% Last Result, Median
27 11% 12%  
28 1.4% 1.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.5% 100%  
22 7% 99.5%  
23 23% 92% Last Result
24 34% 69% Median
25 17% 35%  
26 13% 18%  
27 4% 5%  
28 1.1% 1.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.7%  
22 8% 97%  
23 54% 89%  
24 16% 35% Last Result, Median
25 9% 19%  
26 10% 10%  
27 0.7% 0.7%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.8% 100% Last Result
21 4% 99.1%  
22 35% 95%  
23 29% 61% Median
24 18% 31%  
25 7% 13%  
26 5% 6%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 2% 99.7%  
21 14% 98%  
22 40% 84%  
23 30% 44% Median
24 12% 13%  
25 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 2% 99.9%  
19 21% 98%  
20 25% 77%  
21 26% 52% Median
22 18% 27%  
23 5% 9% Last Result
24 3% 3%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 4% 100%  
20 11% 96%  
21 15% 84%  
22 51% 69%  
23 17% 19% Median
24 2% 2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 1.2% 99.8%  
16 33% 98.6%  
17 41% 65% Last Result, Median
18 21% 24%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 4% 99.8%  
17 30% 96%  
18 45% 67% Last Result, Median
19 19% 21%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 12% 99.8%  
16 7% 88%  
17 38% 81%  
18 39% 43% Median
19 4% 4% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 12% 99.6%  
14 46% 88%  
15 37% 41% Median
16 4% 4%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations