Opinion Poll by MMR, 25 May–1 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 24.6% 22.9–26.5% 22.4–27.0% 22.0–27.4% 21.2–28.3%
Píratar 9.2% 13.5% 12.1–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.4–15.8% 10.8–16.5%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 12.5% 11.2–14.0% 10.9–14.4% 10.6–14.8% 10.0–15.5%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.0% 9.8–12.5% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.2% 8.7–13.9%
Viðreisn 6.7% 11.0% 9.8–12.5% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.2% 8.7–13.9%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.1–13.1% 8.6–13.8%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 6.5% 5.6–7.7% 5.3–8.0% 5.1–8.3% 4.7–8.9%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 5.6% 4.7–6.6% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.2% 3.9–7.8%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 2.8% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.7–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 18 15–19 15–19 15–19 14–20
Píratar 6 9 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–11
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Viðreisn 4 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–9
Samfylkingin 7 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 1–6
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.5% 99.9%  
15 10% 98%  
16 19% 89% Last Result
17 19% 70%  
18 32% 51% Median
19 17% 18%  
20 1.3% 1.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100% Last Result
7 3% 99.8%  
8 33% 97%  
9 44% 64% Median
10 18% 20%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 2% 99.7%  
8 55% 98% Last Result, Median
9 24% 43%  
10 12% 19%  
11 6% 7%  
12 1.3% 1.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.0% 100%  
6 24% 99.0%  
7 40% 75% Median
8 31% 35%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.7% 100%  
6 19% 99.3%  
7 45% 80% Median
8 30% 35%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.4% 100%  
6 21% 98.6%  
7 48% 78% Last Result, Median
8 26% 30%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.5% 100%  
2 0.3% 98%  
3 14% 98%  
4 66% 84% Median
5 17% 18%  
6 0.9% 1.0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100% Last Result
1 0% 80%  
2 0% 80%  
3 45% 80% Median
4 33% 35%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 33 83% 31–35 31–35 30–36 30–37
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Samfylkingin 28 30 27% 28–32 28–33 28–33 26–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 30 12% 28–32 28–32 27–33 26–34
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 33 27 0.1% 25–29 25–29 25–30 24–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 26 0% 24–28 24–28 23–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 22–26 22–26 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 22–26 22–26 21–27 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 25 0% 23–26 22–26 21–27 21–28
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 26 23 0% 21–25 21–25 21–26 20–27
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 24 23 0% 21–25 21–25 21–26 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 22 0% 19–23 19–23 18–24 17–25
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 26 20 0% 18–21 18–22 18–23 17–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 18 0% 17–20 16–20 16–21 15–22
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 16 0% 14–18 14–18 14–18 14–19
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 16 0% 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 14 0% 13–16 13–16 12–17 11–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 11 0% 10–12 10–13 9–13 8–14

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 3% 99.8%  
31 13% 97%  
32 18% 83% Majority
33 22% 65% Median
34 27% 43%  
35 12% 16% Last Result
36 4% 5%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.6% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.3%  
28 13% 98% Last Result
29 17% 84%  
30 28% 67% Median
31 12% 39%  
32 18% 27% Majority
33 8% 10%  
34 0.9% 1.4%  
35 0.4% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.6% 99.9%  
27 4% 99.3%  
28 12% 95%  
29 19% 83%  
30 25% 63% Median
31 27% 39% Last Result
32 9% 12% Majority
33 3% 3%  
34 0.6% 0.7%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 2% 99.9%  
25 15% 98%  
26 26% 83% Median
27 20% 57%  
28 26% 37%  
29 7% 11%  
30 3% 5%  
31 1.2% 1.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 4% 99.7%  
24 13% 96% Last Result
25 20% 83%  
26 25% 62% Median
27 25% 38%  
28 8% 13%  
29 4% 5%  
30 0.6% 0.7%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 2% 99.7%  
22 8% 98%  
23 17% 90%  
24 21% 73%  
25 28% 52% Median
26 21% 25%  
27 3% 3% Last Result
28 0.5% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 3% 99.6%  
22 8% 97%  
23 14% 89% Last Result
24 24% 74%  
25 28% 51% Median
26 20% 23%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100% Last Result
21 2% 99.8%  
22 7% 97%  
23 16% 91%  
24 25% 75%  
25 22% 51% Median
26 25% 28%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.6% 0.7%  
29 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.3% 99.9%  
21 14% 98.6%  
22 28% 85% Median
23 22% 57%  
24 21% 35%  
25 11% 14%  
26 2% 3% Last Result
27 0.5% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 2% 99.8%  
21 12% 98%  
22 21% 86%  
23 30% 65% Median
24 18% 35% Last Result
25 14% 17%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0.8% 0.9%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.5% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.4%  
19 9% 97%  
20 17% 88%  
21 20% 71%  
22 31% 50% Median
23 17% 19% Last Result
24 2% 3%  
25 0.6% 0.6%  
26 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.0% 99.9%  
18 15% 98.9%  
19 27% 84% Median
20 26% 56%  
21 21% 31%  
22 7% 10%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.7% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 1.3% 99.6%  
16 4% 98%  
17 26% 95%  
18 29% 69% Median
19 22% 40%  
20 13% 18%  
21 3% 4%  
22 1.0% 1.1%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 15% 99.5%  
15 28% 85% Median
16 29% 57%  
17 17% 28%  
18 9% 11%  
19 2% 2% Last Result
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.8% 100%  
14 10% 99.2%  
15 27% 89%  
16 28% 62% Median
17 25% 35% Last Result
18 8% 10%  
19 1.3% 2%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.5% 100%  
12 3% 99.4%  
13 26% 96%  
14 28% 70% Median
15 29% 42%  
16 11% 13%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.8% 99.9%  
9 3% 99.1%  
10 25% 96%  
11 34% 71% Median
12 28% 37%  
13 8% 9%  
14 1.5% 2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations