Opinion Poll by MMR, 25 May–1 June 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
24.6% |
22.9–26.5% |
22.4–27.0% |
22.0–27.4% |
21.2–28.3% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
13.5% |
12.1–15.0% |
11.8–15.4% |
11.4–15.8% |
10.8–16.5% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
12.5% |
11.2–14.0% |
10.9–14.4% |
10.6–14.8% |
10.0–15.5% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
11.0% |
9.8–12.5% |
9.5–12.8% |
9.2–13.2% |
8.7–13.9% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
11.0% |
9.8–12.5% |
9.5–12.8% |
9.2–13.2% |
8.7–13.9% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
10.9% |
9.7–12.3% |
9.4–12.7% |
9.1–13.1% |
8.6–13.8% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
6.5% |
5.6–7.7% |
5.3–8.0% |
5.1–8.3% |
4.7–8.9% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
5.6% |
4.7–6.6% |
4.5–7.0% |
4.3–7.2% |
3.9–7.8% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
2.8% |
2.3–3.7% |
2.1–3.9% |
2.0–4.1% |
1.7–4.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
1.5% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
10% |
98% |
|
16 |
19% |
89% |
Last Result |
17 |
19% |
70% |
|
18 |
32% |
51% |
Median |
19 |
17% |
18% |
|
20 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
8 |
33% |
97% |
|
9 |
44% |
64% |
Median |
10 |
18% |
20% |
|
11 |
2% |
2% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
7 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
8 |
55% |
98% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
24% |
43% |
|
10 |
12% |
19% |
|
11 |
6% |
7% |
|
12 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
6 |
24% |
99.0% |
|
7 |
40% |
75% |
Median |
8 |
31% |
35% |
|
9 |
4% |
4% |
|
10 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
6 |
19% |
99.3% |
|
7 |
45% |
80% |
Median |
8 |
30% |
35% |
|
9 |
5% |
5% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
6 |
21% |
98.6% |
|
7 |
48% |
78% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
26% |
30% |
|
9 |
3% |
4% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
2 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
3 |
14% |
98% |
|
4 |
66% |
84% |
Median |
5 |
17% |
18% |
|
6 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
20% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
80% |
|
2 |
0% |
80% |
|
3 |
45% |
80% |
Median |
4 |
33% |
35% |
|
5 |
3% |
3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
35 |
33 |
83% |
31–35 |
31–35 |
30–36 |
30–37 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Samfylkingin |
28 |
30 |
27% |
28–32 |
28–33 |
28–33 |
26–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
30 |
12% |
28–32 |
28–32 |
27–33 |
26–34 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
27 |
0.1% |
25–29 |
25–29 |
25–30 |
24–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
26 |
0% |
24–28 |
24–28 |
23–29 |
23–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
25 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–26 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
25 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–26 |
21–27 |
21–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
25 |
0% |
23–26 |
22–26 |
21–27 |
21–28 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
26 |
23 |
0% |
21–25 |
21–25 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
24 |
23 |
0% |
21–25 |
21–25 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
22 |
0% |
19–23 |
19–23 |
18–24 |
17–25 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
20 |
0% |
18–21 |
18–22 |
18–23 |
17–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
18 |
0% |
17–20 |
16–20 |
16–21 |
15–22 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
19 |
16 |
0% |
14–18 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
14–19 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
16 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
13–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
18 |
14 |
0% |
13–16 |
13–16 |
12–17 |
11–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
11 |
0% |
10–12 |
10–13 |
9–13 |
8–14 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
30 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
31 |
13% |
97% |
|
32 |
18% |
83% |
Majority |
33 |
22% |
65% |
Median |
34 |
27% |
43% |
|
35 |
12% |
16% |
Last Result |
36 |
4% |
5% |
|
37 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
28 |
13% |
98% |
Last Result |
29 |
17% |
84% |
|
30 |
28% |
67% |
Median |
31 |
12% |
39% |
|
32 |
18% |
27% |
Majority |
33 |
8% |
10% |
|
34 |
0.9% |
1.4% |
|
35 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
4% |
99.3% |
|
28 |
12% |
95% |
|
29 |
19% |
83% |
|
30 |
25% |
63% |
Median |
31 |
27% |
39% |
Last Result |
32 |
9% |
12% |
Majority |
33 |
3% |
3% |
|
34 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
15% |
98% |
|
26 |
26% |
83% |
Median |
27 |
20% |
57% |
|
28 |
26% |
37% |
|
29 |
7% |
11% |
|
30 |
3% |
5% |
|
31 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
23 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
24 |
13% |
96% |
Last Result |
25 |
20% |
83% |
|
26 |
25% |
62% |
Median |
27 |
25% |
38% |
|
28 |
8% |
13% |
|
29 |
4% |
5% |
|
30 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
22 |
8% |
98% |
|
23 |
17% |
90% |
|
24 |
21% |
73% |
|
25 |
28% |
52% |
Median |
26 |
21% |
25% |
|
27 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
28 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
22 |
8% |
97% |
|
23 |
14% |
89% |
Last Result |
24 |
24% |
74% |
|
25 |
28% |
51% |
Median |
26 |
20% |
23% |
|
27 |
3% |
3% |
|
28 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
7% |
97% |
|
23 |
16% |
91% |
|
24 |
25% |
75% |
|
25 |
22% |
51% |
Median |
26 |
25% |
28% |
|
27 |
3% |
4% |
|
28 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
14% |
98.6% |
|
22 |
28% |
85% |
Median |
23 |
22% |
57% |
|
24 |
21% |
35% |
|
25 |
11% |
14% |
|
26 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
12% |
98% |
|
22 |
21% |
86% |
|
23 |
30% |
65% |
Median |
24 |
18% |
35% |
Last Result |
25 |
14% |
17% |
|
26 |
3% |
3% |
|
27 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
19 |
9% |
97% |
|
20 |
17% |
88% |
|
21 |
20% |
71% |
|
22 |
31% |
50% |
Median |
23 |
17% |
19% |
Last Result |
24 |
2% |
3% |
|
25 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
15% |
98.9% |
|
19 |
27% |
84% |
Median |
20 |
26% |
56% |
|
21 |
21% |
31% |
|
22 |
7% |
10% |
|
23 |
2% |
3% |
|
24 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
15 |
1.3% |
99.6% |
|
16 |
4% |
98% |
|
17 |
26% |
95% |
|
18 |
29% |
69% |
Median |
19 |
22% |
40% |
|
20 |
13% |
18% |
|
21 |
3% |
4% |
|
22 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
15% |
99.5% |
|
15 |
28% |
85% |
Median |
16 |
29% |
57% |
|
17 |
17% |
28% |
|
18 |
9% |
11% |
|
19 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
14 |
10% |
99.2% |
|
15 |
27% |
89% |
|
16 |
28% |
62% |
Median |
17 |
25% |
35% |
Last Result |
18 |
8% |
10% |
|
19 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
12 |
3% |
99.4% |
|
13 |
26% |
96% |
|
14 |
28% |
70% |
Median |
15 |
29% |
42% |
|
16 |
11% |
13% |
|
17 |
2% |
3% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
3% |
99.1% |
|
10 |
25% |
96% |
|
11 |
34% |
71% |
Median |
12 |
28% |
37% |
|
13 |
8% |
9% |
|
14 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 25 May–1 June 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 951
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.03%