Opinion Poll by MMR, 4–14 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.3–29.9% 23.5–30.8%
Píratar 9.2% 13.1% 11.8–14.5% 11.4–15.0% 11.1–15.3% 10.5–16.0%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.4% 11.2–13.9% 10.8–14.3% 10.5–14.7% 9.9–15.4%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 11.2% 10.0–12.6% 9.7–13.0% 9.4–13.3% 8.8–14.0%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 8.8% 7.8–10.1% 7.5–10.5% 7.2–10.8% 6.7–11.4%
Viðreisn 6.7% 7.8% 6.8–9.0% 6.5–9.4% 6.3–9.7% 5.8–10.3%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.5% 4.7–6.6% 4.5–6.9% 4.3–7.2% 3.9–7.7%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 5.3% 4.5–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–7.0% 3.7–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 19 18–20 18–21 17–21 16–22
Píratar 6 8 8–9 7–10 7–10 6–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–10
Samfylkingin 7 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–7 4–8 4–8 4–8
Viðreisn 4 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 4–5 3–6 3–6 3–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 1.5% 99.8% Last Result
17 2% 98%  
18 13% 96%  
19 50% 83% Median
20 25% 33%  
21 6% 8%  
22 1.5% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.9% 100% Last Result
7 7% 99.1%  
8 45% 92% Median
9 41% 47%  
10 6% 6%  
11 0.8% 0.8%  
12 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100%  
7 15% 97%  
8 44% 82% Median
9 25% 38%  
10 13% 13%  
11 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.9% 100%  
6 24% 99.1%  
7 48% 75% Last Result, Median
8 21% 27%  
9 5% 6%  
10 1.0% 1.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 8% 100%  
5 36% 92%  
6 34% 55% Median
7 14% 21%  
8 6% 6% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.8% 100%  
4 29% 99.2% Last Result
5 49% 70% Median
6 21% 21%  
7 0.7% 0.7%  
8 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 7% 99.9%  
4 50% 93% Median
5 37% 43%  
6 5% 6%  
7 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
8 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 0% 75%  
2 0% 75%  
3 40% 75% Median
4 33% 35% Last Result
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100% Last Result
1 0% 69%  
2 0% 69%  
3 47% 69% Median
4 21% 22%  
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 33 92% 32–35 31–35 31–36 30–37
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 29 5% 28–31 27–32 27–32 26–33
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn 28 29 4% 27–31 26–31 26–32 25–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 27 0.1% 26–29 25–30 25–30 24–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 26 0% 25–28 24–29 24–29 23–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 26 0% 24–28 23–28 23–29 22–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 25 0% 23–26 23–27 22–27 21–28
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 24 24 0% 22–26 22–26 21–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 24 0% 23–26 22–26 22–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 24 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 20–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 21 0% 19–23 19–24 18–24 18–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 20 0% 18–22 18–22 17–23 16–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 18 0% 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 17 0% 15–18 15–18 14–19 14–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 15 0% 14–17 13–18 13–18 12–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 14 0% 13–15 12–16 12–16 11–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 13 0% 11–14 11–15 10–15 10–16

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.4% 100%  
30 1.4% 99.5%  
31 6% 98%  
32 22% 92% Majority
33 26% 70% Median
34 30% 44%  
35 11% 15% Last Result
36 3% 3%  
37 0.5% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.9% 99.8%  
27 7% 98.9%  
28 18% 92%  
29 30% 74% Median
30 23% 44%  
31 15% 21% Last Result
32 4% 5% Majority
33 0.9% 1.1%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 1.0% 99.8%  
26 8% 98.8%  
27 18% 91%  
28 17% 73% Last Result, Median
29 17% 56%  
30 27% 39%  
31 8% 12%  
32 2% 4% Majority
33 2% 2%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.5% 99.8%  
25 4% 98%  
26 14% 95%  
27 34% 81% Last Result, Median
28 26% 47%  
29 15% 21%  
30 5% 6%  
31 0.8% 0.9%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 0.9% 99.6% Last Result
24 4% 98.6%  
25 19% 95%  
26 39% 76% Median
27 20% 37%  
28 12% 17%  
29 4% 5%  
30 0.5% 0.7%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 2% 99.8%  
23 8% 98%  
24 17% 90%  
25 23% 73% Median
26 22% 50%  
27 16% 28%  
28 9% 12%  
29 2% 3%  
30 1.0% 1.1%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 3% 99.5%  
23 7% 96%  
24 23% 89% Last Result
25 34% 66% Median
26 24% 32%  
27 7% 9%  
28 1.1% 1.4%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 4% 99.5%  
22 18% 96%  
23 16% 78% Median
24 29% 62% Last Result
25 21% 33%  
26 9% 12%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.9% 1.0%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
21 2% 99.6%  
22 6% 98%  
23 25% 92%  
24 29% 67% Median
25 25% 38%  
26 12% 14%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.2% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.0% 99.9%  
21 2% 98.9%  
22 11% 97%  
23 31% 86% Last Result, Median
24 39% 55%  
25 10% 16%  
26 4% 6%  
27 1.3% 2%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 3% 99.7%  
19 11% 97%  
20 19% 86%  
21 26% 67% Median
22 25% 41%  
23 10% 15%  
24 5% 6%  
25 1.0% 1.1%  
26 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.5% 100%  
17 4% 99.4%  
18 14% 95%  
19 26% 81% Median
20 25% 55%  
21 17% 30%  
22 10% 14%  
23 3% 4%  
24 0.9% 0.9%  
25 0% 0.1% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 2% 99.8%  
16 4% 98%  
17 20% 94%  
18 26% 74% Median
19 26% 49%  
20 16% 23%  
21 6% 7%  
22 0.7% 0.9%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 2% 99.7%  
15 11% 97%  
16 26% 87% Median
17 34% 60% Last Result
18 21% 26%  
19 4% 5%  
20 1.1% 1.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.8% 100%  
13 5% 99.2%  
14 19% 94%  
15 33% 75% Median
16 21% 42%  
17 15% 21%  
18 5% 6% Last Result
19 0.7% 0.8%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 2% 99.8%  
12 6% 98%  
13 28% 92%  
14 24% 64% Median
15 32% 40%  
16 7% 8%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 3% 99.9%  
11 9% 97%  
12 34% 88% Median
13 29% 53%  
14 16% 24%  
15 7% 8%  
16 1.1% 1.2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations