Opinion Poll by Gallup, 1–29 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 24.1% 23.3–25.0% 23.0–25.2% 22.8–25.4% 22.5–25.8%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 14.7% 14.0–15.4% 13.8–15.6% 13.7–15.8% 13.4–16.2%
Píratar 9.2% 12.9% 12.3–13.6% 12.1–13.8% 11.9–14.0% 11.6–14.3%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.9% 10.3–11.6% 10.2–11.7% 10.0–11.9% 9.7–12.2%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 10.3% 9.7–10.9% 9.6–11.1% 9.4–11.3% 9.2–11.6%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 9.9% 9.3–10.5% 9.2–10.7% 9.0–10.8% 8.8–11.1%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 7.5% 7.0–8.0% 6.9–8.2% 6.7–8.3% 6.5–8.6%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 5.4% 5.0–5.9% 4.8–6.0% 4.8–6.1% 4.6–6.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.2% 3.8–4.6% 3.7–4.7% 3.6–4.8% 3.5–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 16–17 15–18 15–19 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 10 9–10 9–10 9–11 9–11
Píratar 6 8 8–9 8–9 8–9 7–9
Viðreisn 4 7 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Samfylkingin 7 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–7
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 3 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 6% 99.9%  
16 54% 94% Last Result, Median
17 33% 39%  
18 3% 6%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 35% 99.8%  
10 63% 65% Median
11 3% 3% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 1.5% 100%  
8 57% 98.5% Median
9 41% 42%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 5% 100%  
7 78% 95% Median
8 16% 16%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 7% 99.9%  
7 10% 93%  
8 83% 83% Last Result, Median
9 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.0% 100%  
6 77% 99.0% Median
7 22% 22% Last Result
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 30% 99.9%  
5 69% 70% Median
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100% Last Result
1 0% 87%  
2 0% 87%  
3 79% 87% Median
4 8% 8%  
5 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0.1% 0.6%  
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 34 99.9% 33–35 33–35 32–36 32–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn – Samfylkingin 28 31 41% 30–33 30–33 30–34 29–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 29 0% 28–30 28–30 27–30 27–31
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 33 28 0% 27–30 27–30 26–30 25–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 26 0% 25–27 25–28 25–28 24–29
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin 24 24 0% 23–25 23–26 23–26 23–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 23–25 22–25 22–26 22–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 24 0% 23–25 23–25 23–25 22–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 26 24 0% 23–25 22–25 22–25 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 22 0% 22–24 22–24 21–25 21–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 22 0% 21–23 21–23 20–23 19–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 21 0% 20–22 20–23 20–23 19–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 21 0% 20–22 19–22 19–22 19–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 18 0% 17–19 17–19 17–19 17–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 18 0% 17–18 16–18 16–18 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 16 0% 15–17 15–17 15–17 15–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 14 0% 13–15 13–15 13–15 13–16

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 3% 99.9% Majority
33 24% 97%  
34 58% 72% Median
35 11% 14% Last Result
36 3% 3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100% Last Result
29 0.9% 99.9%  
30 16% 99.0%  
31 42% 83% Median
32 27% 41% Majority
33 10% 14%  
34 3% 3%  
35 0.3% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 3% 99.7%  
28 31% 97%  
29 42% 66% Median
30 22% 24%  
31 2% 2% Last Result
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.9% 100%  
26 2% 99.0%  
27 10% 97%  
28 46% 87%  
29 29% 41% Median
30 11% 12%  
31 0.4% 0.4%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 1.0% 100%  
25 18% 99.0%  
26 61% 81% Median
27 13% 20% Last Result
28 5% 7%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 16% 99.7%  
24 46% 84% Last Result, Median
25 32% 38%  
26 5% 6%  
27 1.4% 1.5%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0.2% 100%  
22 7% 99.8%  
23 48% 92% Median
24 31% 44%  
25 10% 13%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0.4% 0.4%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 2% 99.9%  
23 12% 98%  
24 53% 86% Last Result, Median
25 30% 32%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 2% 100%  
22 3% 98%  
23 37% 95%  
24 44% 58% Median
25 12% 13%  
26 1.2% 1.2% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 4% 99.9%  
22 51% 96% Median
23 26% 45% Last Result
24 14% 18%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.8% 0.8%  
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 1.2% 100%  
20 2% 98.8%  
21 14% 97%  
22 46% 82%  
23 36% 37% Median
24 0.7% 0.7%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.8% 100%  
20 24% 99.1%  
21 44% 75% Median
22 25% 31%  
23 4% 6% Last Result
24 2% 2%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 8% 99.9%  
20 41% 92%  
21 36% 51% Median
22 15% 16%  
23 0.8% 0.9%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 19% 99.6% Last Result
18 55% 81% Median
19 24% 26%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 2% 100%  
16 7% 98%  
17 37% 91%  
18 52% 53% Median
19 2% 2% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 30% 99.9%  
16 52% 70% Median
17 16% 18%  
18 2% 2% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 10% 99.9%  
14 43% 90%  
15 46% 47% Median
16 1.4% 2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations