Opinion Poll by Gallup, 1–29 June 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
24.1% |
23.3–25.0% |
23.0–25.2% |
22.8–25.4% |
22.5–25.8% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
14.7% |
14.0–15.4% |
13.8–15.6% |
13.7–15.8% |
13.4–16.2% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
12.9% |
12.3–13.6% |
12.1–13.8% |
11.9–14.0% |
11.6–14.3% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.9% |
10.3–11.6% |
10.2–11.7% |
10.0–11.9% |
9.7–12.2% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
10.3% |
9.7–10.9% |
9.6–11.1% |
9.4–11.3% |
9.2–11.6% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
9.9% |
9.3–10.5% |
9.2–10.7% |
9.0–10.8% |
8.8–11.1% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
7.5% |
7.0–8.0% |
6.9–8.2% |
6.7–8.3% |
6.5–8.6% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
5.4% |
5.0–5.9% |
4.8–6.0% |
4.8–6.1% |
4.6–6.4% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.2% |
3.8–4.6% |
3.7–4.7% |
3.6–4.8% |
3.5–5.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
54% |
94% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
33% |
39% |
|
18 |
3% |
6% |
|
19 |
3% |
3% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
9 |
35% |
99.8% |
|
10 |
63% |
65% |
Median |
11 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
8 |
57% |
98.5% |
Median |
9 |
41% |
42% |
|
10 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
5% |
100% |
|
7 |
78% |
95% |
Median |
8 |
16% |
16% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
7% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
10% |
93% |
|
8 |
83% |
83% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
6 |
77% |
99.0% |
Median |
7 |
22% |
22% |
Last Result |
8 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
30% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
69% |
70% |
Median |
6 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
13% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
87% |
|
2 |
0% |
87% |
|
3 |
79% |
87% |
Median |
4 |
8% |
8% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.4% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
2 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
3 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
34 |
99.9% |
33–35 |
33–35 |
32–36 |
32–36 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn – Samfylkingin |
28 |
31 |
41% |
30–33 |
30–33 |
30–34 |
29–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
0% |
28–30 |
28–30 |
27–30 |
27–31 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
28 |
0% |
27–30 |
27–30 |
26–30 |
25–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
26 |
0% |
25–27 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
24–29 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin |
24 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
23–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
23 |
0% |
23–25 |
22–25 |
22–26 |
22–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–25 |
23–25 |
22–26 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
26 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
22–25 |
22–25 |
21–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
22 |
0% |
22–24 |
22–24 |
21–25 |
21–26 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–23 |
20–23 |
19–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
20–23 |
20–23 |
19–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
19–22 |
19–22 |
19–23 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
18 |
0% |
17–19 |
17–19 |
17–19 |
17–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
18 |
0% |
17–18 |
16–18 |
16–18 |
15–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
18 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
15–17 |
15–17 |
15–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
14 |
0% |
13–15 |
13–15 |
13–15 |
13–16 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
32 |
3% |
99.9% |
Majority |
33 |
24% |
97% |
|
34 |
58% |
72% |
Median |
35 |
11% |
14% |
Last Result |
36 |
3% |
3% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
16% |
99.0% |
|
31 |
42% |
83% |
Median |
32 |
27% |
41% |
Majority |
33 |
10% |
14% |
|
34 |
3% |
3% |
|
35 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
27 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
28 |
31% |
97% |
|
29 |
42% |
66% |
Median |
30 |
22% |
24% |
|
31 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
26 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
27 |
10% |
97% |
|
28 |
46% |
87% |
|
29 |
29% |
41% |
Median |
30 |
11% |
12% |
|
31 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
25 |
18% |
99.0% |
|
26 |
61% |
81% |
Median |
27 |
13% |
20% |
Last Result |
28 |
5% |
7% |
|
29 |
2% |
2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
23 |
16% |
99.7% |
|
24 |
46% |
84% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
32% |
38% |
|
26 |
5% |
6% |
|
27 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
22 |
7% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
48% |
92% |
Median |
24 |
31% |
44% |
|
25 |
10% |
13% |
|
26 |
3% |
3% |
|
27 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
12% |
98% |
|
24 |
53% |
86% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
30% |
32% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
2% |
100% |
|
22 |
3% |
98% |
|
23 |
37% |
95% |
|
24 |
44% |
58% |
Median |
25 |
12% |
13% |
|
26 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
51% |
96% |
Median |
23 |
26% |
45% |
Last Result |
24 |
14% |
18% |
|
25 |
3% |
4% |
|
26 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
21 |
14% |
97% |
|
22 |
46% |
82% |
|
23 |
36% |
37% |
Median |
24 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
20 |
24% |
99.1% |
|
21 |
44% |
75% |
Median |
22 |
25% |
31% |
|
23 |
4% |
6% |
Last Result |
24 |
2% |
2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
8% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
41% |
92% |
|
21 |
36% |
51% |
Median |
22 |
15% |
16% |
|
23 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
17 |
19% |
99.6% |
Last Result |
18 |
55% |
81% |
Median |
19 |
24% |
26% |
|
20 |
2% |
2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
2% |
100% |
|
16 |
7% |
98% |
|
17 |
37% |
91% |
|
18 |
52% |
53% |
Median |
19 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
30% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
52% |
70% |
Median |
17 |
16% |
18% |
|
18 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
10% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
43% |
90% |
|
15 |
46% |
47% |
Median |
16 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 1–29 June 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 4190
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.49%