Opinion Poll by Maskína, 1–30 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.8% 22.0–25.7% 21.5–26.2% 21.1–26.7% 20.3–27.6%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 15.0% 13.6–16.7% 13.2–17.1% 12.8–17.5% 12.1–18.4%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 12.4% 11.1–13.9% 10.7–14.4% 10.4–14.8% 9.8–15.5%
Viðreisn 6.7% 12.3% 11.0–13.8% 10.6–14.3% 10.3–14.6% 9.7–15.4%
Píratar 9.2% 11.6% 10.3–13.1% 10.0–13.5% 9.6–13.9% 9.1–14.6%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 11.4% 10.1–12.9% 9.7–13.3% 9.4–13.7% 8.9–14.4%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 5.0% 4.2–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.7–6.7% 3.4–7.2%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.3–5.6% 3.2–5.9% 2.8–6.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.2–5.5% 3.1–5.7% 2.7–6.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 16–18 15–18 15–19 14–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 10 10–11 9–12 9–12 8–12
Samfylkingin 7 8 7–9 7–9 7–10 6–10
Viðreisn 4 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–10
Píratar 6 8 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–10
Miðflokkurinn 7 3 1–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 0 0–1 0–3 0–4 0–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 2% 99.8%  
15 7% 98%  
16 26% 91% Last Result
17 37% 65% Median
18 25% 28%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 2% 100%  
9 4% 98%  
10 68% 95% Median
11 18% 27% Last Result
12 9% 9%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.7% 100%  
7 10% 99.3% Last Result
8 49% 90% Median
9 36% 41%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 11% 98%  
8 63% 87% Median
9 18% 24%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 2% 99.9% Last Result
7 31% 97%  
8 26% 67% Median
9 39% 41%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 2% 99.7%  
7 12% 97%  
8 61% 85% Last Result, Median
9 16% 23%  
10 7% 7%  
11 0.2% 0.4%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 30% 94%  
2 0.1% 64%  
3 47% 64% Median
4 17% 17%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 10%  
2 0% 10%  
3 6% 10%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Median
1 0.1% 13%  
2 0% 13%  
3 12% 13%  
4 1.2% 1.2% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 35 99.4% 33–37 33–38 33–39 31–39
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar 28 35 97% 34–36 32–37 31–38 30–39
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 29 2% 28–30 27–31 27–31 26–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 28 0.1% 25–29 25–29 24–30 23–31
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 26 0.1% 26–29 25–29 24–30 23–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 27 0% 26–28 25–29 25–29 23–31
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 24 27 0% 25–28 25–29 23–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 25 0% 23–27 23–27 23–28 22–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 25 0% 24–26 23–27 23–28 22–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 24–27 23–27 23–27 22–28
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 21 0% 20–22 19–23 18–23 18–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 21 0% 19–23 18–23 18–23 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 20 0% 17–21 16–21 16–22 15–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 18 0% 17–20 17–21 17–21 15–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 19 0% 18–20 17–20 17–21 16–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 19 0% 17–19 16–20 16–20 15–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 13 0% 11–14 11–15 10–15 10–16

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 0.9% 99.4% Majority
33 12% 98%  
34 6% 86%  
35 41% 81% Last Result, Median
36 23% 39%  
37 11% 17%  
38 3% 6%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.4% 0.4%  
41 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0.2% 100%  
30 2% 99.8%  
31 1.0% 98%  
32 2% 97% Majority
33 4% 95%  
34 23% 91% Median
35 43% 68%  
36 16% 24%  
37 4% 8%  
38 2% 4%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.4% 100%  
26 2% 99.5%  
27 7% 98%  
28 11% 90%  
29 43% 80% Median
30 27% 37%  
31 7% 10%  
32 1.5% 2% Majority
33 0.5% 0.8% Last Result
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.9% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.0%  
25 11% 96%  
26 10% 85%  
27 16% 75%  
28 38% 59% Median
29 17% 21%  
30 4% 4%  
31 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.8%  
24 2% 99.3%  
25 4% 97%  
26 45% 94% Last Result, Median
27 26% 49%  
28 11% 23%  
29 9% 12%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.6% 0.7%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.5% 100%  
24 0.9% 99.4%  
25 6% 98%  
26 15% 92%  
27 42% 78% Last Result, Median
28 27% 36%  
29 7% 9%  
30 1.3% 2%  
31 0.5% 0.6%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 3% 99.8%  
24 2% 97% Last Result
25 8% 95%  
26 23% 87% Median
27 45% 64%  
28 13% 19%  
29 4% 6%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 1.4% 99.6%  
23 13% 98%  
24 17% 85% Last Result
25 35% 68% Median
26 20% 33%  
27 9% 13%  
28 3% 3%  
29 0.4% 0.4%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100% Last Result
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 2% 99.7%  
23 6% 98%  
24 22% 92%  
25 41% 69% Median
26 20% 29%  
27 5% 9%  
28 4% 4%  
29 0.5% 0.5%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 2% 99.7%  
23 6% 98% Last Result
24 14% 92%  
25 46% 78% Median
26 10% 31%  
27 20% 21%  
28 0.9% 1.2%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.4% 99.9%  
18 3% 99.6%  
19 6% 97%  
20 20% 91%  
21 57% 72% Median
22 8% 14%  
23 4% 6%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 5% 99.7%  
19 5% 94%  
20 20% 90%  
21 37% 69% Median
22 16% 32%  
23 14% 16%  
24 1.3% 2%  
25 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 0.9% 99.7%  
16 4% 98.8%  
17 16% 95%  
18 9% 79%  
19 11% 70%  
20 41% 60% Median
21 15% 19%  
22 4% 4%  
23 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.7% 100%  
16 2% 99.3%  
17 12% 98%  
18 50% 86% Median
19 18% 36% Last Result
20 12% 18%  
21 5% 6%  
22 0.2% 0.6%  
23 0.4% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 7% 98%  
18 35% 91% Last Result, Median
19 41% 56%  
20 11% 15%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.7% 0.7%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.4% 99.9%  
16 4% 98%  
17 21% 95% Last Result
18 14% 74% Median
19 54% 60%  
20 4% 6%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100%  
10 2% 99.5%  
11 17% 97%  
12 13% 80%  
13 48% 67% Median
14 13% 19%  
15 4% 6%  
16 1.3% 1.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations