Opinion Poll by Maskína, 1–30 June 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
23.8% |
22.0–25.7% |
21.5–26.2% |
21.1–26.7% |
20.3–27.6% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
15.0% |
13.6–16.7% |
13.2–17.1% |
12.8–17.5% |
12.1–18.4% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
12.4% |
11.1–13.9% |
10.7–14.4% |
10.4–14.8% |
9.8–15.5% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
12.3% |
11.0–13.8% |
10.6–14.3% |
10.3–14.6% |
9.7–15.4% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.6% |
10.3–13.1% |
10.0–13.5% |
9.6–13.9% |
9.1–14.6% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
11.4% |
10.1–12.9% |
9.7–13.3% |
9.4–13.7% |
8.9–14.4% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
5.0% |
4.2–6.1% |
3.9–6.4% |
3.7–6.7% |
3.4–7.2% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
4.3% |
3.6–5.3% |
3.3–5.6% |
3.2–5.9% |
2.8–6.4% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.2% |
3.5–5.2% |
3.2–5.5% |
3.1–5.7% |
2.7–6.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
14 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
15 |
7% |
98% |
|
16 |
26% |
91% |
Last Result |
17 |
37% |
65% |
Median |
18 |
25% |
28% |
|
19 |
2% |
3% |
|
20 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
2% |
100% |
|
9 |
4% |
98% |
|
10 |
68% |
95% |
Median |
11 |
18% |
27% |
Last Result |
12 |
9% |
9% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
7 |
10% |
99.3% |
Last Result |
8 |
49% |
90% |
Median |
9 |
36% |
41% |
|
10 |
4% |
5% |
|
11 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
2% |
100% |
|
7 |
11% |
98% |
|
8 |
63% |
87% |
Median |
9 |
18% |
24% |
|
10 |
5% |
6% |
|
11 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
2% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
7 |
31% |
97% |
|
8 |
26% |
67% |
Median |
9 |
39% |
41% |
|
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
6 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
7 |
12% |
97% |
|
8 |
61% |
85% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
16% |
23% |
|
10 |
7% |
7% |
|
11 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
12 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
6% |
100% |
|
1 |
30% |
94% |
|
2 |
0.1% |
64% |
|
3 |
47% |
64% |
Median |
4 |
17% |
17% |
|
5 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
90% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.2% |
10% |
|
2 |
0% |
10% |
|
3 |
6% |
10% |
|
4 |
4% |
4% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
87% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.1% |
13% |
|
2 |
0% |
13% |
|
3 |
12% |
13% |
|
4 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
35 |
99.4% |
33–37 |
33–38 |
33–39 |
31–39 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar |
28 |
35 |
97% |
34–36 |
32–37 |
31–38 |
30–39 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
29 |
2% |
28–30 |
27–31 |
27–31 |
26–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
28 |
0.1% |
25–29 |
25–29 |
24–30 |
23–31 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
26 |
0.1% |
26–29 |
25–29 |
24–30 |
23–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
27 |
0% |
26–28 |
25–29 |
25–29 |
23–31 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar |
24 |
27 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–29 |
23–29 |
23–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
25 |
0% |
23–27 |
23–27 |
23–28 |
22–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
23–27 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
25 |
0% |
24–27 |
23–27 |
23–27 |
22–28 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
19–23 |
18–23 |
18–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
21 |
0% |
19–23 |
18–23 |
18–23 |
18–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
20 |
0% |
17–21 |
16–21 |
16–22 |
15–22 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
18 |
0% |
17–20 |
17–21 |
17–21 |
15–22 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
18 |
19 |
0% |
18–20 |
17–20 |
17–21 |
16–22 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
19 |
0% |
17–19 |
16–20 |
16–20 |
15–21 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
13 |
0% |
11–14 |
11–15 |
10–15 |
10–16 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
0.9% |
99.4% |
Majority |
33 |
12% |
98% |
|
34 |
6% |
86% |
|
35 |
41% |
81% |
Last Result, Median |
36 |
23% |
39% |
|
37 |
11% |
17% |
|
38 |
3% |
6% |
|
39 |
2% |
3% |
|
40 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
30 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
31 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
32 |
2% |
97% |
Majority |
33 |
4% |
95% |
|
34 |
23% |
91% |
Median |
35 |
43% |
68% |
|
36 |
16% |
24% |
|
37 |
4% |
8% |
|
38 |
2% |
4% |
|
39 |
2% |
2% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
26 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
27 |
7% |
98% |
|
28 |
11% |
90% |
|
29 |
43% |
80% |
Median |
30 |
27% |
37% |
|
31 |
7% |
10% |
|
32 |
1.5% |
2% |
Majority |
33 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
34 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
3% |
99.0% |
|
25 |
11% |
96% |
|
26 |
10% |
85% |
|
27 |
16% |
75% |
|
28 |
38% |
59% |
Median |
29 |
17% |
21% |
|
30 |
4% |
4% |
|
31 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
24 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
25 |
4% |
97% |
|
26 |
45% |
94% |
Last Result, Median |
27 |
26% |
49% |
|
28 |
11% |
23% |
|
29 |
9% |
12% |
|
30 |
2% |
3% |
|
31 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.9% |
99.4% |
|
25 |
6% |
98% |
|
26 |
15% |
92% |
|
27 |
42% |
78% |
Last Result, Median |
28 |
27% |
36% |
|
29 |
7% |
9% |
|
30 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
31 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
24 |
2% |
97% |
Last Result |
25 |
8% |
95% |
|
26 |
23% |
87% |
Median |
27 |
45% |
64% |
|
28 |
13% |
19% |
|
29 |
4% |
6% |
|
30 |
2% |
2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
1.4% |
99.6% |
|
23 |
13% |
98% |
|
24 |
17% |
85% |
Last Result |
25 |
35% |
68% |
Median |
26 |
20% |
33% |
|
27 |
9% |
13% |
|
28 |
3% |
3% |
|
29 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
23 |
6% |
98% |
|
24 |
22% |
92% |
|
25 |
41% |
69% |
Median |
26 |
20% |
29% |
|
27 |
5% |
9% |
|
28 |
4% |
4% |
|
29 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
23 |
6% |
98% |
Last Result |
24 |
14% |
92% |
|
25 |
46% |
78% |
Median |
26 |
10% |
31% |
|
27 |
20% |
21% |
|
28 |
0.9% |
1.2% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
19 |
6% |
97% |
|
20 |
20% |
91% |
|
21 |
57% |
72% |
Median |
22 |
8% |
14% |
|
23 |
4% |
6% |
|
24 |
2% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
18 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
19 |
5% |
94% |
|
20 |
20% |
90% |
|
21 |
37% |
69% |
Median |
22 |
16% |
32% |
|
23 |
14% |
16% |
|
24 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.9% |
99.7% |
|
16 |
4% |
98.8% |
|
17 |
16% |
95% |
|
18 |
9% |
79% |
|
19 |
11% |
70% |
|
20 |
41% |
60% |
Median |
21 |
15% |
19% |
|
22 |
4% |
4% |
|
23 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
16 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
17 |
12% |
98% |
|
18 |
50% |
86% |
Median |
19 |
18% |
36% |
Last Result |
20 |
12% |
18% |
|
21 |
5% |
6% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
23 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
7% |
98% |
|
18 |
35% |
91% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
41% |
56% |
|
20 |
11% |
15% |
|
21 |
3% |
4% |
|
22 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
4% |
98% |
|
17 |
21% |
95% |
Last Result |
18 |
14% |
74% |
Median |
19 |
54% |
60% |
|
20 |
4% |
6% |
|
21 |
2% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
10 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
11 |
17% |
97% |
|
12 |
13% |
80% |
|
13 |
48% |
67% |
Median |
14 |
13% |
19% |
|
15 |
4% |
6% |
|
16 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Maskína
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 1–30 June 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 879
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.12%