Opinion Poll by MMR, 24 June–6 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 25.4% 24.2–26.6% 23.8–27.0% 23.5–27.3% 23.0–27.9%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 12.3% 11.4–13.3% 11.2–13.6% 10.9–13.8% 10.5–14.3%
Píratar 9.2% 12.2% 11.3–13.2% 11.1–13.4% 10.9–13.7% 10.4–14.2%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.9% 11.0–12.9% 10.8–13.1% 10.6–13.4% 10.2–13.9%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 10.6% 9.8–11.5% 9.5–11.8% 9.3–12.0% 8.9–12.5%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.1% 8.3–10.0% 8.1–10.2% 7.9–10.4% 7.6–10.9%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 6.6% 6.0–7.4% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.8% 5.3–8.2%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.5% 4.9–6.2% 4.7–6.4% 4.6–6.6% 4.3–6.9%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 5.3% 4.7–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.4–6.4% 4.1–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 18 18–19 17–19 16–19 15–20
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 8–9 8–9 8–10 8–10
Píratar 6 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–9
Samfylkingin 7 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 5–8
Viðreisn 4 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 3 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.7% 100%  
16 2% 99.3% Last Result
17 6% 97%  
18 52% 91% Median
19 38% 39%  
20 0.8% 0.9%  
21 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 73% 99.8% Last Result, Median
9 22% 27%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100% Last Result
7 13% 98%  
8 69% 85% Median
9 15% 16%  
10 1.0% 1.0%  
11 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100%  
7 24% 97%  
8 61% 73% Median
9 12% 12%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 1.3% 99.9%  
6 46% 98.6%  
7 45% 53% Last Result, Median
8 8% 8%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100% Last Result
5 47% 98%  
6 47% 51% Median
7 4% 4%  
8 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 8% 99.9%  
4 78% 92% Median
5 14% 14%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100%  
1 0% 84%  
2 0% 84%  
3 69% 84% Median
4 15% 15% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100% Last Result
1 0% 56%  
2 0.2% 56%  
3 51% 56% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 34 99.4% 34–36 33–36 33–36 31–37
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 31 18% 30–32 29–32 29–32 28–33
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn 28 28 2% 26–30 26–31 25–31 25–32
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 33 27 0% 25–28 25–29 24–29 24–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 27 0% 26–27 25–28 25–28 24–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 26 0% 25–27 25–27 24–28 23–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 24–26 23–26 23–27 22–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 24 0% 23–25 22–25 22–25 21–26
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 26 23 0% 21–24 21–25 21–25 20–26
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 24 22 0% 21–24 21–25 20–25 20–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 22 0% 21–23 21–24 20–24 19–24
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 26 20 0% 19–21 19–22 18–22 17–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 19 0% 17–20 17–20 16–21 16–21
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 16 0% 15–17 15–18 14–18 14–19
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 16 0% 15–17 14–17 14–18 13–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 14 0% 13–16 13–16 13–16 12–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 12 0% 11–13 11–13 10–13 9–14

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 1.5% 99.4% Majority
33 6% 98%  
34 54% 92% Median
35 26% 38% Last Result
36 10% 12%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 2% 99.6%  
29 6% 98%  
30 34% 91% Median
31 39% 57% Last Result
32 16% 18% Majority
33 2% 2%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 3% 99.8%  
26 14% 97%  
27 28% 83%  
28 18% 55% Last Result
29 24% 38% Median
30 8% 14%  
31 5% 7%  
32 2% 2% Majority
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 3% 99.9%  
25 14% 97%  
26 25% 83%  
27 25% 58% Median
28 24% 32%  
29 7% 8%  
30 1.0% 1.4%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 1.4% 99.7% Last Result
25 4% 98%  
26 38% 94% Median
27 46% 56%  
28 8% 10%  
29 1.3% 2%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.2%  
25 8% 96%  
26 68% 89% Median
27 16% 21% Last Result
28 4% 5%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.5% 100%  
22 0.8% 99.5%  
23 6% 98.8% Last Result
24 26% 93%  
25 44% 67% Median
26 18% 23%  
27 4% 5%  
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100% Last Result
21 1.1% 99.7%  
22 6% 98.5%  
23 30% 93%  
24 39% 63% Median
25 22% 24%  
26 1.4% 2%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 2% 100%  
21 13% 98%  
22 31% 85%  
23 28% 54% Median
24 19% 27%  
25 6% 7%  
26 0.9% 1.2% Last Result
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.5% 100%  
20 4% 99.5%  
21 15% 95%  
22 37% 80%  
23 27% 43% Median
24 9% 16% Last Result
25 6% 7%  
26 0.8% 0.8%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.7% 99.9%  
20 4% 99.2%  
21 7% 96%  
22 45% 88% Median
23 36% 43% Last Result
24 7% 7%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.7% 100%  
18 3% 99.3%  
19 20% 96%  
20 38% 77% Median
21 30% 38%  
22 7% 9%  
23 1.2% 1.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 3% 99.7%  
17 15% 96%  
18 28% 81%  
19 37% 53% Median
20 12% 15%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 3% 100%  
15 22% 97%  
16 41% 75% Median
17 28% 34%  
18 5% 6%  
19 1.3% 1.3% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.6% 100%  
14 5% 99.4%  
15 26% 94%  
16 50% 68% Median
17 15% 18% Last Result
18 3% 3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 2% 99.9%  
13 14% 98%  
14 37% 84%  
15 35% 47% Median
16 9% 11%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.8% 100%  
10 4% 99.2%  
11 22% 96%  
12 55% 74% Median
13 18% 19%  
14 1.0% 1.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations