Opinion Poll by MMR, 24 June–6 July 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
25.4% |
24.2–26.6% |
23.8–27.0% |
23.5–27.3% |
23.0–27.9% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
12.3% |
11.4–13.3% |
11.2–13.6% |
10.9–13.8% |
10.5–14.3% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
12.2% |
11.3–13.2% |
11.1–13.4% |
10.9–13.7% |
10.4–14.2% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
11.9% |
11.0–12.9% |
10.8–13.1% |
10.6–13.4% |
10.2–13.9% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8–11.5% |
9.5–11.8% |
9.3–12.0% |
8.9–12.5% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.1% |
8.3–10.0% |
8.1–10.2% |
7.9–10.4% |
7.6–10.9% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
6.6% |
6.0–7.4% |
5.8–7.6% |
5.6–7.8% |
5.3–8.2% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
5.5% |
4.9–6.2% |
4.7–6.4% |
4.6–6.6% |
4.3–6.9% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
5.3% |
4.7–6.0% |
4.5–6.2% |
4.4–6.4% |
4.1–6.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
16 |
2% |
99.3% |
Last Result |
17 |
6% |
97% |
|
18 |
52% |
91% |
Median |
19 |
38% |
39% |
|
20 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
8 |
73% |
99.8% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
22% |
27% |
|
10 |
4% |
5% |
|
11 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
13% |
98% |
|
8 |
69% |
85% |
Median |
9 |
15% |
16% |
|
10 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
3% |
100% |
|
7 |
24% |
97% |
|
8 |
61% |
73% |
Median |
9 |
12% |
12% |
|
10 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
46% |
98.6% |
|
7 |
45% |
53% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
8% |
8% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
47% |
98% |
|
6 |
47% |
51% |
Median |
7 |
4% |
4% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
8% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
78% |
92% |
Median |
5 |
14% |
14% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
16% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
84% |
|
2 |
0% |
84% |
|
3 |
69% |
84% |
Median |
4 |
15% |
15% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
44% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
56% |
|
2 |
0.2% |
56% |
|
3 |
51% |
56% |
Median |
4 |
5% |
5% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
35 |
34 |
99.4% |
34–36 |
33–36 |
33–36 |
31–37 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
31 |
18% |
30–32 |
29–32 |
29–32 |
28–33 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn |
28 |
28 |
2% |
26–30 |
26–31 |
25–31 |
25–32 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
27 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–29 |
24–29 |
24–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
27 |
0% |
26–27 |
25–28 |
25–28 |
24–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
26 |
0% |
25–27 |
25–27 |
24–28 |
23–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
23–26 |
23–27 |
22–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
22–25 |
22–25 |
21–26 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
26 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–25 |
21–25 |
20–26 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
24 |
22 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–25 |
20–25 |
20–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–24 |
20–24 |
19–24 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
19–22 |
18–22 |
17–23 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
19 |
0% |
17–20 |
17–20 |
16–21 |
16–21 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
19 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
15–18 |
14–18 |
14–19 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
14–17 |
14–18 |
13–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
18 |
14 |
0% |
13–16 |
13–16 |
13–16 |
12–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
12 |
0% |
11–13 |
11–13 |
10–13 |
9–14 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
1.5% |
99.4% |
Majority |
33 |
6% |
98% |
|
34 |
54% |
92% |
Median |
35 |
26% |
38% |
Last Result |
36 |
10% |
12% |
|
37 |
2% |
2% |
|
38 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
29 |
6% |
98% |
|
30 |
34% |
91% |
Median |
31 |
39% |
57% |
Last Result |
32 |
16% |
18% |
Majority |
33 |
2% |
2% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
14% |
97% |
|
27 |
28% |
83% |
|
28 |
18% |
55% |
Last Result |
29 |
24% |
38% |
Median |
30 |
8% |
14% |
|
31 |
5% |
7% |
|
32 |
2% |
2% |
Majority |
33 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
14% |
97% |
|
26 |
25% |
83% |
|
27 |
25% |
58% |
Median |
28 |
24% |
32% |
|
29 |
7% |
8% |
|
30 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
31 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
24 |
1.4% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
25 |
4% |
98% |
|
26 |
38% |
94% |
Median |
27 |
46% |
56% |
|
28 |
8% |
10% |
|
29 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
3% |
99.2% |
|
25 |
8% |
96% |
|
26 |
68% |
89% |
Median |
27 |
16% |
21% |
Last Result |
28 |
4% |
5% |
|
29 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.8% |
99.5% |
|
23 |
6% |
98.8% |
Last Result |
24 |
26% |
93% |
|
25 |
44% |
67% |
Median |
26 |
18% |
23% |
|
27 |
4% |
5% |
|
28 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
1.1% |
99.7% |
|
22 |
6% |
98.5% |
|
23 |
30% |
93% |
|
24 |
39% |
63% |
Median |
25 |
22% |
24% |
|
26 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
2% |
100% |
|
21 |
13% |
98% |
|
22 |
31% |
85% |
|
23 |
28% |
54% |
Median |
24 |
19% |
27% |
|
25 |
6% |
7% |
|
26 |
0.9% |
1.2% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
20 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
21 |
15% |
95% |
|
22 |
37% |
80% |
|
23 |
27% |
43% |
Median |
24 |
9% |
16% |
Last Result |
25 |
6% |
7% |
|
26 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
21 |
7% |
96% |
|
22 |
45% |
88% |
Median |
23 |
36% |
43% |
Last Result |
24 |
7% |
7% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
18 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
19 |
20% |
96% |
|
20 |
38% |
77% |
Median |
21 |
30% |
38% |
|
22 |
7% |
9% |
|
23 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
17 |
15% |
96% |
|
18 |
28% |
81% |
|
19 |
37% |
53% |
Median |
20 |
12% |
15% |
|
21 |
3% |
3% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
3% |
100% |
|
15 |
22% |
97% |
|
16 |
41% |
75% |
Median |
17 |
28% |
34% |
|
18 |
5% |
6% |
|
19 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
Last Result |
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
14 |
5% |
99.4% |
|
15 |
26% |
94% |
|
16 |
50% |
68% |
Median |
17 |
15% |
18% |
Last Result |
18 |
3% |
3% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
12 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
13 |
14% |
98% |
|
14 |
37% |
84% |
|
15 |
35% |
47% |
Median |
16 |
9% |
11% |
|
17 |
2% |
2% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
10 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
11 |
22% |
96% |
|
12 |
55% |
74% |
Median |
13 |
18% |
19% |
|
14 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 24 June–6 July 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 2041
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.17%