Opinion Poll by Prósent for Fréttablaðið, 15–23 July 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
23.6% |
22.6–24.7% |
22.3–25.0% |
22.0–25.3% |
21.5–25.8% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
13.3% |
12.5–14.2% |
12.3–14.4% |
12.1–14.7% |
11.7–15.1% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
12.6% |
11.8–13.5% |
11.6–13.7% |
11.4–13.9% |
11.0–14.4% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
11.9% |
11.1–12.7% |
10.9–13.0% |
10.7–13.2% |
10.3–13.6% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
10.6% |
9.9–11.4% |
9.7–11.7% |
9.5–11.9% |
9.1–12.3% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.1% |
9.4–10.9% |
9.2–11.1% |
9.0–11.3% |
8.7–11.7% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
6.1% |
5.5–6.8% |
5.4–7.0% |
5.3–7.1% |
5.0–7.4% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
5.6% |
5.1–6.2% |
4.9–6.4% |
4.8–6.6% |
4.5–6.9% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
5.0% |
4.5–5.6% |
4.3–5.8% |
4.2–5.9% |
4.0–6.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
2% |
100% |
|
15 |
15% |
98% |
|
16 |
34% |
83% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
27% |
49% |
|
18 |
20% |
22% |
|
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
8 |
48% |
99.3% |
|
9 |
47% |
51% |
Median |
10 |
4% |
4% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
2% |
100% |
|
7 |
28% |
98% |
Last Result |
8 |
46% |
71% |
Median |
9 |
23% |
25% |
|
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
4% |
100% |
|
7 |
25% |
96% |
|
8 |
59% |
71% |
Median |
9 |
10% |
12% |
|
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
6 |
7% |
99.7% |
|
7 |
26% |
93% |
|
8 |
65% |
68% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
11% |
100% |
|
6 |
57% |
89% |
Median |
7 |
30% |
32% |
|
8 |
2% |
2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.4% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
3 |
46% |
99.6% |
|
4 |
52% |
53% |
Median |
5 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
5% |
100% |
|
2 |
2% |
95% |
|
3 |
67% |
93% |
Median |
4 |
27% |
27% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
47% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
53% |
|
2 |
0% |
53% |
|
3 |
52% |
53% |
Median |
4 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
32 |
66% |
30–33 |
30–34 |
30–34 |
29–35 |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
30 |
31% |
28–33 |
28–33 |
28–34 |
27–35 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
27 |
0% |
25–29 |
25–29 |
25–30 |
24–30 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
27 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–28 |
24–29 |
24–29 |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
24 |
0% |
23–26 |
22–27 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
24 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–26 |
22–26 |
21–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
24 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–26 |
22–26 |
22–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
24 |
0% |
23–26 |
22–26 |
22–26 |
21–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
22–25 |
21–25 |
21–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
21–24 |
21–25 |
20–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
20 |
0% |
18–21 |
18–22 |
17–22 |
16–23 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
19 |
0% |
17–20 |
17–21 |
17–21 |
16–22 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
19 |
0% |
17–20 |
17–20 |
17–20 |
16–21 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
15–18 |
15–18 |
14–19 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
16 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–18 |
13–18 |
13–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
15 |
0% |
15–16 |
14–17 |
14–17 |
13–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
11 |
0% |
10–12 |
10–12 |
9–12 |
8–13 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
30 |
13% |
98.7% |
|
31 |
20% |
86% |
|
32 |
28% |
66% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
29% |
38% |
|
34 |
8% |
8% |
|
35 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
2% |
100% |
|
28 |
8% |
98% |
Last Result |
29 |
21% |
90% |
|
30 |
20% |
69% |
|
31 |
18% |
49% |
Median |
32 |
19% |
31% |
Majority |
33 |
7% |
12% |
|
34 |
4% |
5% |
|
35 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
36 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
24 |
1.2% |
99.6% |
|
25 |
9% |
98% |
|
26 |
12% |
89% |
|
27 |
32% |
77% |
Median |
28 |
28% |
45% |
|
29 |
13% |
17% |
|
30 |
4% |
5% |
|
31 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
25 |
14% |
97% |
|
26 |
30% |
83% |
|
27 |
34% |
53% |
Median |
28 |
17% |
19% |
|
29 |
2% |
3% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
22 |
7% |
98.5% |
|
23 |
18% |
92% |
|
24 |
30% |
74% |
Last Result |
25 |
27% |
44% |
Median |
26 |
12% |
17% |
|
27 |
4% |
5% |
|
28 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
22 |
11% |
99.2% |
|
23 |
17% |
89% |
|
24 |
31% |
72% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
26% |
41% |
|
26 |
13% |
14% |
|
27 |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
22 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
23 |
12% |
96% |
Last Result |
24 |
37% |
85% |
Median |
25 |
27% |
47% |
|
26 |
18% |
20% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
22 |
6% |
99.3% |
|
23 |
18% |
94% |
|
24 |
30% |
76% |
Median |
25 |
29% |
46% |
|
26 |
16% |
18% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
22 |
14% |
96% |
|
23 |
38% |
82% |
|
24 |
30% |
44% |
Median |
25 |
12% |
14% |
|
26 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
1.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
10% |
98.9% |
|
22 |
28% |
89% |
Median |
23 |
37% |
61% |
|
24 |
20% |
24% |
|
25 |
4% |
4% |
|
26 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
17 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
18 |
13% |
97% |
|
19 |
25% |
84% |
Median |
20 |
34% |
58% |
|
21 |
18% |
24% |
|
22 |
6% |
6% |
|
23 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
2% |
100% |
|
17 |
9% |
98% |
|
18 |
24% |
89% |
|
19 |
35% |
65% |
Median |
20 |
22% |
30% |
|
21 |
7% |
8% |
|
22 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
10% |
98.9% |
|
18 |
32% |
89% |
|
19 |
44% |
57% |
Median |
20 |
12% |
13% |
|
21 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
2% |
100% |
|
15 |
16% |
98% |
|
16 |
38% |
83% |
|
17 |
36% |
44% |
Last Result, Median |
18 |
7% |
8% |
|
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
3% |
100% |
|
14 |
8% |
97% |
|
15 |
30% |
90% |
|
16 |
37% |
59% |
Median |
17 |
16% |
23% |
|
18 |
6% |
6% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
14 |
9% |
99.3% |
|
15 |
44% |
90% |
|
16 |
40% |
46% |
Median |
17 |
6% |
7% |
|
18 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
9 |
4% |
99.0% |
|
10 |
21% |
95% |
|
11 |
50% |
75% |
Median |
12 |
23% |
25% |
|
13 |
2% |
2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Prósent
- Commissioner(s): Fréttablaðið
- Fieldwork period: 15–23 July 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 2600
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.36%