Opinion Poll by Prósent for Fréttablaðið, 15–23 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.6% 22.6–24.7% 22.3–25.0% 22.0–25.3% 21.5–25.8%
Píratar 9.2% 13.3% 12.5–14.2% 12.3–14.4% 12.1–14.7% 11.7–15.1%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 12.6% 11.8–13.5% 11.6–13.7% 11.4–13.9% 11.0–14.4%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.9% 11.1–12.7% 10.9–13.0% 10.7–13.2% 10.3–13.6%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 10.6% 9.9–11.4% 9.7–11.7% 9.5–11.9% 9.1–12.3%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.1% 9.4–10.9% 9.2–11.1% 9.0–11.3% 8.7–11.7%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 6.1% 5.5–6.8% 5.4–7.0% 5.3–7.1% 5.0–7.4%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 5.6% 5.1–6.2% 4.9–6.4% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–6.9%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.0% 4.5–5.6% 4.3–5.8% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 15–18 15–18 15–18 14–19
Píratar 6 9 8–9 8–9 8–10 7–10
Samfylkingin 7 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Viðreisn 4 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Miðflokkurinn 7 3 3–4 1–4 1–4 1–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 2% 100%  
15 15% 98%  
16 34% 83% Last Result, Median
17 27% 49%  
18 20% 22%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.7% 100%  
8 48% 99.3%  
9 47% 51% Median
10 4% 4%  
11 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 28% 98% Last Result
8 46% 71% Median
9 23% 25%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 4% 100%  
7 25% 96%  
8 59% 71% Median
9 10% 12%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 7% 99.7%  
7 26% 93%  
8 65% 68% Last Result, Median
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 11% 100%  
6 57% 89% Median
7 30% 32%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 46% 99.6%  
4 52% 53% Median
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100%  
2 2% 95%  
3 67% 93% Median
4 27% 27%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100%  
1 0% 53%  
2 0% 53%  
3 52% 53% Median
4 1.3% 1.3% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 32 66% 30–33 30–34 30–34 29–35
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 30 31% 28–33 28–33 28–34 27–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 27 0% 25–29 25–29 25–30 24–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 27 0% 25–28 25–28 24–29 24–29
Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 24 0% 23–26 22–27 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 24 0% 22–26 22–26 22–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 24 0% 23–26 23–26 22–26 22–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 24 0% 23–26 22–26 22–26 21–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 23 0% 22–25 22–25 21–25 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 21–24 21–24 21–25 20–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 20 0% 18–21 18–22 17–22 16–23
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 19 0% 17–20 17–21 17–21 16–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 19 0% 17–20 17–20 17–20 16–21
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 16 0% 15–17 15–18 15–18 14–19
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 14–17 14–18 13–18 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 15 0% 15–16 14–17 14–17 13–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 11 0% 10–12 10–12 9–12 8–13

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 1.3% 100%  
30 13% 98.7%  
31 20% 86%  
32 28% 66% Median, Majority
33 29% 38%  
34 8% 8%  
35 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 2% 100%  
28 8% 98% Last Result
29 21% 90%  
30 20% 69%  
31 18% 49% Median
32 19% 31% Majority
33 7% 12%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.6% 0.8%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 1.2% 99.6%  
25 9% 98%  
26 12% 89%  
27 32% 77% Median
28 28% 45%  
29 13% 17%  
30 4% 5%  
31 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 3% 99.7%  
25 14% 97%  
26 30% 83%  
27 34% 53% Median
28 17% 19%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 1.5% 100%  
22 7% 98.5%  
23 18% 92%  
24 30% 74% Last Result
25 27% 44% Median
26 12% 17%  
27 4% 5%  
28 0.7% 0.9%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.7% 100%  
22 11% 99.2%  
23 17% 89%  
24 31% 72% Last Result, Median
25 26% 41%  
26 13% 14%  
27 1.4% 1.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.5% 100%  
22 3% 99.5%  
23 12% 96% Last Result
24 37% 85% Median
25 27% 47%  
26 18% 20%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.7% 100%  
22 6% 99.3%  
23 18% 94%  
24 30% 76% Median
25 29% 46%  
26 16% 18%  
27 2% 2% Last Result
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 3% 99.7%  
22 14% 96%  
23 38% 82%  
24 30% 44% Median
25 12% 14%  
26 2% 2% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 1.1% 100% Last Result
21 10% 98.9%  
22 28% 89% Median
23 37% 61%  
24 20% 24%  
25 4% 4%  
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.6% 100%  
17 2% 99.3%  
18 13% 97%  
19 25% 84% Median
20 34% 58%  
21 18% 24%  
22 6% 6%  
23 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
24 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 2% 100%  
17 9% 98%  
18 24% 89%  
19 35% 65% Median
20 22% 30%  
21 7% 8%  
22 1.3% 1.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.9% 99.8%  
17 10% 98.9%  
18 32% 89%  
19 44% 57% Median
20 12% 13%  
21 0.7% 0.7%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 2% 100%  
15 16% 98%  
16 38% 83%  
17 36% 44% Last Result, Median
18 7% 8%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 3% 100%  
14 8% 97%  
15 30% 90%  
16 37% 59% Median
17 16% 23%  
18 6% 6% Last Result
19 0.8% 0.8%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.5% 99.8%  
14 9% 99.3%  
15 44% 90%  
16 40% 46% Median
17 6% 7%  
18 0.8% 0.8%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.0% 100%  
9 4% 99.0%  
10 21% 95%  
11 50% 75% Median
12 23% 25%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations