Opinion Poll by Gallup, 30 June–28 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 24.1% 23.2–25.0% 23.0–25.3% 22.8–25.5% 22.4–25.9%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 13.8% 13.1–14.5% 12.9–14.7% 12.7–14.9% 12.4–15.3%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 12.3% 11.6–13.0% 11.4–13.2% 11.3–13.4% 11.0–13.7%
Píratar 9.2% 12.2% 11.6–12.9% 11.4–13.1% 11.2–13.3% 10.9–13.6%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 11.9% 11.2–12.6% 11.1–12.8% 10.9–13.0% 10.6–13.3%
Viðreisn 6.7% 8.7% 8.2–9.3% 8.0–9.5% 7.8–9.6% 7.6–10.0%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 7.4% 6.9–8.0% 6.7–8.1% 6.6–8.3% 6.4–8.6%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 5.4% 5.0–5.9% 4.8–6.0% 4.7–6.2% 4.5–6.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.0% 3.6–4.4% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 16–18 16–18 16–18 15–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 9–10 9–10 8–10 8–11
Samfylkingin 7 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Píratar 6 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 8 8 8–9 7–10
Viðreisn 4 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–7
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 3 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.4% 99.9%  
16 17% 98% Last Result
17 50% 81% Median
18 31% 32%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 5% 100%  
9 68% 95% Median
10 27% 27%  
11 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
12 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 12% 100% Last Result
8 76% 88% Median
9 11% 11%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 24% 100%  
8 64% 76% Median
9 12% 12%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 1.4% 100%  
8 94% 98.6% Last Result, Median
9 4% 4%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100% Last Result
5 44% 99.9%  
6 55% 56% Median
7 0.9% 0.9%  
8 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 48% 100%  
5 51% 52% Median
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100% Last Result
1 0% 86%  
2 0% 86%  
3 77% 86% Median
4 9% 9%  
5 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 34 100% 34–35 33–36 33–36 32–36
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 30 19% 29–33 29–33 29–33 29–33
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 30 7% 29–31 29–32 28–32 28–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 30 0.7% 29–31 28–31 28–31 28–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 26 0% 26–27 25–27 25–28 24–28
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 24–26 24–27 24–27 23–28
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 24 25 0% 24–27 24–27 24–27 23–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 25 0% 24–26 24–26 24–26 23–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 25 0% 24–26 24–26 23–26 23–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 22–24 21–24 21–24 20–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 22 0% 21–23 21–24 20–24 20–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 22 0% 21–23 21–23 21–23 20–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 22 0% 21–23 20–23 20–23 20–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 17 0% 16–18 16–19 16–19 16–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 17 0% 16–18 16–19 16–19 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 17 0% 17–18 16–18 16–18 16–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 14 0% 13–15 13–15 13–15 12–16

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.6% 100% Majority
33 6% 99.4%  
34 55% 93% Median
35 32% 38% Last Result
36 6% 6%  
37 0.4% 0.4%  
38 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.4% 100% Last Result
29 12% 99.6%  
30 38% 87%  
31 30% 50% Median
32 9% 19% Majority
33 10% 11%  
34 0.4% 0.4%  
35 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 3% 99.9%  
29 44% 97%  
30 31% 52% Median
31 14% 21%  
32 7% 7% Majority
33 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 8% 99.7%  
29 31% 92%  
30 47% 61% Median
31 13% 14% Last Result
32 0.7% 0.7% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.9% 100%  
25 6% 99.1%  
26 56% 93% Median
27 32% 37% Last Result
28 5% 5%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.7% 100%  
24 12% 99.3%  
25 56% 87% Median
26 23% 31% Last Result
27 7% 8%  
28 0.5% 0.5%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 2% 100%  
24 29% 98% Last Result
25 38% 69% Median
26 20% 31%  
27 10% 11%  
28 0.9% 0.9%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.1% 99.9%  
24 17% 98.8% Last Result
25 49% 82% Median
26 31% 33%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 4% 99.9% Last Result
24 16% 96%  
25 46% 80% Median
26 32% 34%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.9% 100% Last Result
21 7% 99.1%  
22 35% 92%  
23 38% 57% Median
24 19% 20%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 3% 99.8%  
21 46% 97%  
22 31% 51% Median
23 14% 20%  
24 6% 6%  
25 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 2% 99.9%  
21 40% 98%  
22 37% 58% Median
23 19% 21%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 8% 99.6%  
21 32% 92%  
22 48% 60% Median
23 12% 12% Last Result
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 25% 99.8%  
17 44% 75% Last Result, Median
18 26% 31%  
19 5% 5%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.7% 100%  
16 12% 99.2%  
17 59% 87% Median
18 23% 29% Last Result
19 6% 6%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 6% 99.9%  
17 65% 94% Median
18 27% 29%  
19 2% 2% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 41% 98%  
14 37% 57% Median
15 19% 20%  
16 0.5% 0.5%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations