Opinion Poll by Gallup, 30 June–28 July 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
24.1% |
23.2–25.0% |
23.0–25.3% |
22.8–25.5% |
22.4–25.9% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
13.8% |
13.1–14.5% |
12.9–14.7% |
12.7–14.9% |
12.4–15.3% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
12.3% |
11.6–13.0% |
11.4–13.2% |
11.3–13.4% |
11.0–13.7% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
12.2% |
11.6–12.9% |
11.4–13.1% |
11.2–13.3% |
10.9–13.6% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
11.9% |
11.2–12.6% |
11.1–12.8% |
10.9–13.0% |
10.6–13.3% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
8.7% |
8.2–9.3% |
8.0–9.5% |
7.8–9.6% |
7.6–10.0% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
7.4% |
6.9–8.0% |
6.7–8.1% |
6.6–8.3% |
6.4–8.6% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
5.4% |
5.0–5.9% |
4.8–6.0% |
4.7–6.2% |
4.5–6.4% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.0% |
3.6–4.4% |
3.5–4.6% |
3.4–4.7% |
3.2–4.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
17% |
98% |
Last Result |
17 |
50% |
81% |
Median |
18 |
31% |
32% |
|
19 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
5% |
100% |
|
9 |
68% |
95% |
Median |
10 |
27% |
27% |
|
11 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
12% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
76% |
88% |
Median |
9 |
11% |
11% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
24% |
100% |
|
8 |
64% |
76% |
Median |
9 |
12% |
12% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
8 |
94% |
98.6% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
4% |
4% |
|
10 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
44% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
55% |
56% |
Median |
7 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
48% |
100% |
|
5 |
51% |
52% |
Median |
6 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
14% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
86% |
|
2 |
0% |
86% |
|
3 |
77% |
86% |
Median |
4 |
9% |
9% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
34 |
100% |
34–35 |
33–36 |
33–36 |
32–36 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
30 |
19% |
29–33 |
29–33 |
29–33 |
29–33 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
30 |
7% |
29–31 |
29–32 |
28–32 |
28–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
30 |
0.7% |
29–31 |
28–31 |
28–31 |
28–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
26 |
0% |
26–27 |
25–27 |
25–28 |
24–28 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
24–27 |
24–27 |
23–28 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar |
24 |
25 |
0% |
24–27 |
24–27 |
24–27 |
23–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
24–26 |
24–26 |
23–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
24–26 |
23–26 |
23–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
20–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–24 |
20–24 |
20–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
21–23 |
21–23 |
20–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
22 |
0% |
21–23 |
20–23 |
20–23 |
20–23 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
16–19 |
16–19 |
16–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
18 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
16–19 |
16–19 |
15–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
17 |
0% |
17–18 |
16–18 |
16–18 |
16–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
14 |
0% |
13–15 |
13–15 |
13–15 |
12–16 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.6% |
100% |
Majority |
33 |
6% |
99.4% |
|
34 |
55% |
93% |
Median |
35 |
32% |
38% |
Last Result |
36 |
6% |
6% |
|
37 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.4% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
12% |
99.6% |
|
30 |
38% |
87% |
|
31 |
30% |
50% |
Median |
32 |
9% |
19% |
Majority |
33 |
10% |
11% |
|
34 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
44% |
97% |
|
30 |
31% |
52% |
Median |
31 |
14% |
21% |
|
32 |
7% |
7% |
Majority |
33 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
28 |
8% |
99.7% |
|
29 |
31% |
92% |
|
30 |
47% |
61% |
Median |
31 |
13% |
14% |
Last Result |
32 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
25 |
6% |
99.1% |
|
26 |
56% |
93% |
Median |
27 |
32% |
37% |
Last Result |
28 |
5% |
5% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
24 |
12% |
99.3% |
|
25 |
56% |
87% |
Median |
26 |
23% |
31% |
Last Result |
27 |
7% |
8% |
|
28 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
2% |
100% |
|
24 |
29% |
98% |
Last Result |
25 |
38% |
69% |
Median |
26 |
20% |
31% |
|
27 |
10% |
11% |
|
28 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
17% |
98.8% |
Last Result |
25 |
49% |
82% |
Median |
26 |
31% |
33% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
4% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
24 |
16% |
96% |
|
25 |
46% |
80% |
Median |
26 |
32% |
34% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.9% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
7% |
99.1% |
|
22 |
35% |
92% |
|
23 |
38% |
57% |
Median |
24 |
19% |
20% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
21 |
46% |
97% |
|
22 |
31% |
51% |
Median |
23 |
14% |
20% |
|
24 |
6% |
6% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
40% |
98% |
|
22 |
37% |
58% |
Median |
23 |
19% |
21% |
|
24 |
2% |
2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
20 |
8% |
99.6% |
|
21 |
32% |
92% |
|
22 |
48% |
60% |
Median |
23 |
12% |
12% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
16 |
25% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
44% |
75% |
Last Result, Median |
18 |
26% |
31% |
|
19 |
5% |
5% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
16 |
12% |
99.2% |
|
17 |
59% |
87% |
Median |
18 |
23% |
29% |
Last Result |
19 |
6% |
6% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
6% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
65% |
94% |
Median |
18 |
27% |
29% |
|
19 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
2% |
100% |
|
13 |
41% |
98% |
|
14 |
37% |
57% |
Median |
15 |
19% |
20% |
|
16 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 30 June–28 July 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 3800
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.01%