Opinion Poll by Maskína for Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir, 1–31 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 20.9% 19.2–22.8% 18.8–23.3% 18.4–23.7% 17.6–24.6%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 14.1% 12.7–15.7% 12.3–16.2% 12.0–16.6% 11.3–17.4%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 13.7% 12.3–15.2% 11.9–15.7% 11.5–16.1% 10.9–16.9%
Píratar 9.2% 12.7% 11.4–14.3% 11.0–14.7% 10.7–15.1% 10.1–15.9%
Viðreisn 6.7% 12.3% 11.0–13.8% 10.6–14.3% 10.3–14.6% 9.7–15.4%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 9.9% 8.7–11.3% 8.4–11.7% 8.1–12.1% 7.6–12.8%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 6.3% 5.3–7.4% 5.1–7.8% 4.8–8.1% 4.4–8.7%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 5.5% 4.6–6.6% 4.3–6.9% 4.1–7.2% 3.8–7.7%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.2–5.5% 3.1–5.7% 2.7–6.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 13–15 13–16 13–16 12–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 10 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–11
Samfylkingin 7 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–11
Píratar 6 8 7–10 7–10 7–10 6–11
Viðreisn 4 8 7–9 7–9 7–10 6–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 6 5–8 5–9 5–9 5–10
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 4 4–5 3–5 0–5 0–5
Miðflokkurinn 7 3 1–4 1–4 0–4 0–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 24% 98%  
14 22% 73%  
15 44% 52% Median
16 7% 8% Last Result
17 0.8% 1.1%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 1.2% 100%  
8 10% 98.8%  
9 24% 89%  
10 53% 65% Median
11 12% 12% Last Result
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9% Last Result
8 28% 98%  
9 47% 70% Median
10 16% 22%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.9% 100% Last Result
7 12% 99.0%  
8 40% 87% Median
9 35% 47%  
10 12% 13%  
11 0.7% 0.7%  
12 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 14% 98%  
8 47% 84% Median
9 33% 37%  
10 5% 5%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 11% 99.7%  
6 47% 89% Median
7 26% 42%  
8 11% 16% Last Result
9 4% 5%  
10 1.1% 1.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 5% 97%  
4 71% 92% Median
5 20% 21%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 37% 97%  
2 2% 60%  
3 31% 58% Median
4 25% 26%  
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Median
1 0.1% 12%  
2 0% 12%  
3 11% 12%  
4 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 36 98.9% 33–37 33–37 32–38 31–39
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 31 28% 29–32 28–33 28–33 27–34
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 27 0.8% 26–30 25–30 25–31 24–32
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 24 27 0.1% 25–29 25–29 24–30 23–30
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 23–27 23–28 22–28 22–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 23 0% 22–25 22–26 21–26 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 23 0% 22–25 21–26 21–26 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 24 0% 22–26 22–26 21–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 21–24 20–24 20–25 19–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 21 0% 19–23 19–23 18–24 17–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 21 0% 19–22 19–23 18–23 18–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 18 0% 17–20 16–21 16–22 15–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 19 0% 17–20 16–21 16–21 15–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 18 0% 16–19 16–20 16–20 15–21
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 17 0% 16–18 15–19 14–20 13–21
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 16 0% 15–18 14–18 14–19 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 12 0% 10–14 10–14 9–14 9–15

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.8% 99.7%  
32 2% 98.9% Majority
33 12% 97%  
34 11% 84%  
35 19% 73% Median
36 33% 55%  
37 19% 22%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.9% 1.1%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 1.4% 99.9%  
28 8% 98.5%  
29 17% 91%  
30 23% 74%  
31 23% 51% Median
32 22% 28% Majority
33 5% 6%  
34 1.0% 1.4%  
35 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.5% 100%  
25 5% 99.5%  
26 18% 94%  
27 32% 76%  
28 17% 44% Median
29 17% 27%  
30 6% 11%  
31 3% 4%  
32 0.7% 0.8% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.7% 100%  
24 3% 99.2% Last Result
25 14% 96%  
26 15% 82%  
27 22% 68% Median
28 30% 46%  
29 12% 15%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 4% 99.8%  
23 10% 96%  
24 17% 87%  
25 29% 70% Median
26 27% 41% Last Result
27 9% 14%  
28 4% 5%  
29 1.0% 1.2%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 3% 99.5%  
22 28% 97%  
23 35% 68%  
24 14% 33% Median
25 12% 19%  
26 4% 7%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.6%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.8% 99.9%  
21 8% 99.1%  
22 24% 91%  
23 21% 68% Last Result
24 31% 47% Median
25 10% 16%  
26 5% 6%  
27 0.7% 0.8%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 3% 99.6%  
22 10% 97%  
23 27% 87%  
24 18% 59%  
25 31% 42% Median
26 9% 11%  
27 0.8% 1.1% Last Result
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 2% 99.9%  
20 5% 98% Last Result
21 16% 93%  
22 18% 77%  
23 34% 59% Median
24 20% 24%  
25 3% 4%  
26 0.7% 0.8%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.4% 99.9%  
18 3% 99.5%  
19 13% 97%  
20 20% 84%  
21 30% 64%  
22 15% 35% Median
23 16% 19%  
24 3% 4%  
25 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 5% 99.9%  
19 14% 95%  
20 18% 82%  
21 31% 64% Median
22 24% 32%  
23 6% 8%  
24 2% 2% Last Result
25 0.4% 0.4%  
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 1.0% 100%  
16 5% 99.0%  
17 17% 94%  
18 30% 77%  
19 19% 48% Median
20 19% 29%  
21 6% 9%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.6% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.6% 100%  
16 5% 99.4%  
17 11% 95%  
18 28% 83% Last Result
19 32% 55% Median
20 17% 23%  
21 5% 6%  
22 0.6% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 10% 98%  
17 18% 88% Last Result
18 25% 70% Median
19 36% 45%  
20 8% 9%  
21 0.9% 1.0%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 1.1% 100%  
14 1.4% 98.9%  
15 5% 97%  
16 42% 93%  
17 28% 50%  
18 15% 22% Median
19 5% 8%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.6% 0.7%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 1.1% 100%  
14 7% 98.8%  
15 18% 92%  
16 34% 74% Median
17 30% 40%  
18 7% 10%  
19 3% 3% Last Result
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 3% 99.7%  
10 7% 97%  
11 32% 90%  
12 15% 58%  
13 26% 43% Median
14 15% 17%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations