Opinion Poll by Maskína for Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir, 1–31 July 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
20.9% |
19.2–22.8% |
18.8–23.3% |
18.4–23.7% |
17.6–24.6% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
14.1% |
12.7–15.7% |
12.3–16.2% |
12.0–16.6% |
11.3–17.4% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
13.7% |
12.3–15.2% |
11.9–15.7% |
11.5–16.1% |
10.9–16.9% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
12.7% |
11.4–14.3% |
11.0–14.7% |
10.7–15.1% |
10.1–15.9% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
12.3% |
11.0–13.8% |
10.6–14.3% |
10.3–14.6% |
9.7–15.4% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
9.9% |
8.7–11.3% |
8.4–11.7% |
8.1–12.1% |
7.6–12.8% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
6.3% |
5.3–7.4% |
5.1–7.8% |
4.8–8.1% |
4.4–8.7% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
5.5% |
4.6–6.6% |
4.3–6.9% |
4.1–7.2% |
3.8–7.7% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.2% |
3.5–5.2% |
3.2–5.5% |
3.1–5.7% |
2.7–6.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
12 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
13 |
24% |
98% |
|
14 |
22% |
73% |
|
15 |
44% |
52% |
Median |
16 |
7% |
8% |
Last Result |
17 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
8 |
10% |
98.8% |
|
9 |
24% |
89% |
|
10 |
53% |
65% |
Median |
11 |
12% |
12% |
Last Result |
12 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
13 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
2% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
8 |
28% |
98% |
|
9 |
47% |
70% |
Median |
10 |
16% |
22% |
|
11 |
6% |
7% |
|
12 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.9% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
12% |
99.0% |
|
8 |
40% |
87% |
Median |
9 |
35% |
47% |
|
10 |
12% |
13% |
|
11 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
2% |
100% |
|
7 |
14% |
98% |
|
8 |
47% |
84% |
Median |
9 |
33% |
37% |
|
10 |
5% |
5% |
|
11 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
5 |
11% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
47% |
89% |
Median |
7 |
26% |
42% |
|
8 |
11% |
16% |
Last Result |
9 |
4% |
5% |
|
10 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
97% |
|
2 |
0% |
97% |
|
3 |
5% |
97% |
|
4 |
71% |
92% |
Median |
5 |
20% |
21% |
|
6 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
37% |
97% |
|
2 |
2% |
60% |
|
3 |
31% |
58% |
Median |
4 |
25% |
26% |
|
5 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
88% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.1% |
12% |
|
2 |
0% |
12% |
|
3 |
11% |
12% |
|
4 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
36 |
98.9% |
33–37 |
33–37 |
32–38 |
31–39 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
31 |
28% |
29–32 |
28–33 |
28–33 |
27–34 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
27 |
0.8% |
26–30 |
25–30 |
25–31 |
24–32 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar |
24 |
27 |
0.1% |
25–29 |
25–29 |
24–30 |
23–30 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
25 |
0% |
23–27 |
23–28 |
22–28 |
22–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
22–26 |
21–26 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–26 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
24 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–26 |
21–26 |
21–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
20–24 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
21 |
0% |
19–23 |
19–23 |
18–24 |
17–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
21 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–23 |
18–23 |
18–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
18 |
0% |
17–20 |
16–21 |
16–22 |
15–23 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
18 |
19 |
0% |
17–20 |
16–21 |
16–21 |
15–22 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
18 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–20 |
16–20 |
15–21 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
13–21 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
16 |
0% |
15–18 |
14–18 |
14–19 |
13–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
12 |
0% |
10–14 |
10–14 |
9–14 |
9–15 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
32 |
2% |
98.9% |
Majority |
33 |
12% |
97% |
|
34 |
11% |
84% |
|
35 |
19% |
73% |
Median |
36 |
33% |
55% |
|
37 |
19% |
22% |
|
38 |
2% |
3% |
|
39 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
40 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
8% |
98.5% |
|
29 |
17% |
91% |
|
30 |
23% |
74% |
|
31 |
23% |
51% |
Median |
32 |
22% |
28% |
Majority |
33 |
5% |
6% |
|
34 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
35 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
25 |
5% |
99.5% |
|
26 |
18% |
94% |
|
27 |
32% |
76% |
|
28 |
17% |
44% |
Median |
29 |
17% |
27% |
|
30 |
6% |
11% |
|
31 |
3% |
4% |
|
32 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
24 |
3% |
99.2% |
Last Result |
25 |
14% |
96% |
|
26 |
15% |
82% |
|
27 |
22% |
68% |
Median |
28 |
30% |
46% |
|
29 |
12% |
15% |
|
30 |
3% |
3% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
32 |
0% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
10% |
96% |
|
24 |
17% |
87% |
|
25 |
29% |
70% |
Median |
26 |
27% |
41% |
Last Result |
27 |
9% |
14% |
|
28 |
4% |
5% |
|
29 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
22 |
28% |
97% |
|
23 |
35% |
68% |
|
24 |
14% |
33% |
Median |
25 |
12% |
19% |
|
26 |
4% |
7% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.8% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
8% |
99.1% |
|
22 |
24% |
91% |
|
23 |
21% |
68% |
Last Result |
24 |
31% |
47% |
Median |
25 |
10% |
16% |
|
26 |
5% |
6% |
|
27 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
22 |
10% |
97% |
|
23 |
27% |
87% |
|
24 |
18% |
59% |
|
25 |
31% |
42% |
Median |
26 |
9% |
11% |
|
27 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
Last Result |
28 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
29 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
5% |
98% |
Last Result |
21 |
16% |
93% |
|
22 |
18% |
77% |
|
23 |
34% |
59% |
Median |
24 |
20% |
24% |
|
25 |
3% |
4% |
|
26 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
19 |
13% |
97% |
|
20 |
20% |
84% |
|
21 |
30% |
64% |
|
22 |
15% |
35% |
Median |
23 |
16% |
19% |
|
24 |
3% |
4% |
|
25 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
14% |
95% |
|
20 |
18% |
82% |
|
21 |
31% |
64% |
Median |
22 |
24% |
32% |
|
23 |
6% |
8% |
|
24 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
16 |
5% |
99.0% |
|
17 |
17% |
94% |
|
18 |
30% |
77% |
|
19 |
19% |
48% |
Median |
20 |
19% |
29% |
|
21 |
6% |
9% |
|
22 |
3% |
3% |
|
23 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
16 |
5% |
99.4% |
|
17 |
11% |
95% |
|
18 |
28% |
83% |
Last Result |
19 |
32% |
55% |
Median |
20 |
17% |
23% |
|
21 |
5% |
6% |
|
22 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
10% |
98% |
|
17 |
18% |
88% |
Last Result |
18 |
25% |
70% |
Median |
19 |
36% |
45% |
|
20 |
8% |
9% |
|
21 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
1.4% |
98.9% |
|
15 |
5% |
97% |
|
16 |
42% |
93% |
|
17 |
28% |
50% |
|
18 |
15% |
22% |
Median |
19 |
5% |
8% |
|
20 |
2% |
3% |
|
21 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
7% |
98.8% |
|
15 |
18% |
92% |
|
16 |
34% |
74% |
Median |
17 |
30% |
40% |
|
18 |
7% |
10% |
|
19 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
20 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
9 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
10 |
7% |
97% |
|
11 |
32% |
90% |
|
12 |
15% |
58% |
|
13 |
26% |
43% |
Median |
14 |
15% |
17% |
|
15 |
2% |
2% |
|
16 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Maskína
- Commissioner(s): Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir
- Fieldwork period: 1–31 July 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 879
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.22%