Opinion Poll by Gallup, 29 July–15 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 24.5% 23.8–25.2% 23.6–25.4% 23.5–25.6% 23.1–25.9%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 14.1% 13.6–14.7% 13.4–14.8% 13.3–15.0% 13.0–15.3%
Píratar 9.2% 12.6% 12.1–13.2% 11.9–13.3% 11.8–13.4% 11.6–13.7%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 11.2% 10.7–11.7% 10.6–11.9% 10.5–12.0% 10.2–12.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 10.4% 9.9–10.9% 9.8–11.1% 9.7–11.2% 9.4–11.4%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.1% 8.7–9.6% 8.5–9.7% 8.4–9.8% 8.2–10.1%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 6.7% 6.3–7.1% 6.2–7.2% 6.1–7.3% 5.9–7.5%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 6.7% 6.3–7.1% 6.2–7.2% 6.1–7.3% 5.9–7.5%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.1% 3.8–4.5% 3.7–4.5% 3.6–4.6% 3.5–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 16–17 16–18 16–18 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–10
Píratar 6 8 8–9 8–9 8–9 7–9
Samfylkingin 7 7 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Viðreisn 4 6 6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 4 4 4–5 4–5
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 4 4 4–5 4–5 4–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.9% 100%  
16 51% 99.1% Last Result, Median
17 42% 49%  
18 6% 7%  
19 1.3% 1.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.6% 100%  
9 68% 99.4% Median
10 32% 32%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.7% 100%  
8 79% 99.3% Median
9 20% 20%  
10 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 74% 99.7% Last Result, Median
8 26% 26%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 8% 100%  
7 19% 92%  
8 73% 73% Last Result, Median
9 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 8% 100%  
6 91% 92% Median
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 95% 99.8% Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 95% 99.7% Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 34 99.6% 33–34 33–34 32–35 32–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn 28 31 16% 30–32 30–32 30–32 29–32
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 28 0% 27–29 27–29 27–29 26–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 28 0% 27–29 27–29 27–29 26–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 26 0% 25–27 25–27 25–27 25–28
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin 24 25 0% 24–26 24–26 24–26 23–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 24 0% 23–25 23–25 23–25 22–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 24 0% 23–25 23–25 23–25 22–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 24 0% 23–25 23–25 23–25 23–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 22 0% 22–23 22–24 21–24 21–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 20 0% 20–22 20–22 20–22 19–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 21 0% 20–21 20–22 20–22 19–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 21 0% 20–22 20–22 19–22 19–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 17 0% 17–18 17–18 17–19 16–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 16 0% 16–18 16–18 16–18 15–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 17 0% 16–18 16–18 15–18 15–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 13 0% 13–14 13–14 13–14 12–15

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.4% 100%  
32 3% 99.6% Majority
33 43% 96% Median
34 49% 53%  
35 4% 4% Last Result
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100% Last Result
29 2% 99.9%  
30 43% 98% Median
31 38% 54%  
32 16% 16% Majority
33 0.4% 0.4%  
34 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 1.2% 99.9%  
27 11% 98.7%  
28 49% 88% Median
29 37% 39%  
30 1.4% 1.4%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 1.0% 100%  
27 16% 99.0%  
28 40% 83% Median
29 41% 43%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 27% 99.9% Median
26 60% 73%  
27 12% 13% Last Result
28 1.4% 1.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.9% 100%  
24 39% 99.1% Last Result, Median
25 43% 60%  
26 16% 17%  
27 0.5% 0.5%  
28 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 1.3% 99.9%  
23 11% 98.6%  
24 52% 88% Median
25 35% 35%  
26 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 1.1% 100%  
23 17% 98.9%  
24 42% 82% Last Result, Median
25 38% 40%  
26 1.5% 2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 31% 99.7% Last Result, Median
24 58% 69%  
25 9% 11%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 3% 100%  
22 54% 97% Median
23 37% 44%  
24 5% 6%  
25 1.0% 1.0%  
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.7% 100%  
20 50% 99.3% Median
21 37% 49%  
22 13% 13%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.8% 100%  
20 47% 99.2% Median
21 44% 52%  
22 7% 8%  
23 1.4% 1.4% Last Result
24 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 3% 99.9%  
20 12% 97%  
21 65% 85% Median
22 20% 20%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.9% 100%  
17 52% 99.1% Last Result, Median
18 42% 47%  
19 5% 5%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.7% 100%  
16 53% 99.3% Median
17 36% 47%  
18 11% 11% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 4% 99.9%  
16 12% 96%  
17 68% 85% Median
18 16% 16%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.6% 100%  
13 64% 99.4% Median
14 34% 35%  
15 1.3% 1.3%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations