Opinion Poll by Maskína for Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir, 13–23 August 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn | 25.2% | 23.3% | 21.5–25.3% | 21.0–25.8% | 20.6–26.3% | 19.7–27.3% |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 16.9% | 14.2% | 12.8–15.9% | 12.3–16.4% | 12.0–16.8% | 11.3–17.6% |
| Samfylkingin | 12.1% | 13.0% | 11.6–14.6% | 11.2–15.1% | 10.9–15.5% | 10.2–16.3% |
| Framsóknarflokkurinn | 10.7% | 12.6% | 11.3–14.2% | 10.9–14.7% | 10.5–15.1% | 9.9–15.9% |
| Viðreisn | 6.7% | 10.7% | 9.4–12.2% | 9.1–12.6% | 8.8–13.0% | 8.2–13.7% |
| Píratar | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.6–11.3% | 8.3–11.7% | 8.0–12.1% | 7.4–12.8% |
| Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands | 0.0% | 6.9% | 5.9–8.2% | 5.6–8.6% | 5.4–8.9% | 4.9–9.5% |
| Miðflokkurinn | 10.9% | 5.1% | 4.2–6.2% | 4.0–6.6% | 3.8–6.8% | 3.4–7.4% |
| Flokkur fólksins | 6.9% | 4.3% | 3.5–5.3% | 3.3–5.6% | 3.1–5.9% | 2.7–6.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn | 16 | 16 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 13–19 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 11 | 10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| Samfylkingin | 7 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| Framsóknarflokkurinn | 8 | 10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| Viðreisn | 4 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Píratar | 6 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Miðflokkurinn | 7 | 3 | 1–3 | 1–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Flokkur fólksins | 4 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 14% | 98% | |
| 15 | 31% | 84% | |
| 16 | 30% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 17 | 13% | 24% | |
| 18 | 7% | 10% | |
| 19 | 3% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 15% | 97% | |
| 9 | 23% | 82% | |
| 10 | 55% | 59% | Median |
| 11 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 12 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 7 | 13% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 8 | 51% | 87% | Median |
| 9 | 28% | 36% | |
| 10 | 8% | 8% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 8 | 17% | 98% | Last Result |
| 9 | 18% | 81% | |
| 10 | 48% | 63% | Median |
| 11 | 14% | 15% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 25% | 97% | |
| 7 | 50% | 72% | Median |
| 8 | 21% | 22% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 26% | 98% | |
| 6 | 35% | 71% | Last Result, Median |
| 7 | 31% | 36% | |
| 8 | 4% | 5% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 3 | 9% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 49% | 90% | Median |
| 5 | 34% | 42% | |
| 6 | 8% | 8% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 45% | 97% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 53% | |
| 3 | 44% | 53% | Median |
| 4 | 9% | 9% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 13% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 3 | 12% | 13% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.4% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 35 | 35 | 96% | 33–37 | 32–37 | 31–38 | 31–38 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar | 28 | 31 | 30% | 29–32 | 28–33 | 28–34 | 26–35 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn | 33 | 30 | 9% | 27–31 | 27–32 | 26–32 | 26–33 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn | 31 | 28 | 0.9% | 25–30 | 24–30 | 24–31 | 24–33 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 26 | 27 | 0.1% | 25–29 | 25–30 | 24–30 | 24–31 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð | 27 | 25 | 0% | 24–27 | 23–27 | 22–29 | 22–29 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 24 | 25 | 0% | 23–27 | 23–28 | 23–28 | 22–29 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar | 24 | 24 | 0% | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–27 | 21–28 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin | 23 | 24 | 0% | 22–26 | 22–27 | 21–27 | 21–28 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn | 20 | 23 | 0% | 21–25 | 21–25 | 20–25 | 19–26 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn | 26 | 21 | 0% | 19–23 | 18–24 | 18–24 | 17–25 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn | 25 | 20 | 0% | 18–22 | 18–22 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn | 19 | 19 | 0% | 17–21 | 17–21 | 16–21 | 16–22 |
| Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn | 23 | 18 | 0% | 16–20 | 15–21 | 15–21 | 14–22 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin | 18 | 18 | 0% | 16–19 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 15–21 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar | 17 | 16 | 0% | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 13–19 |
| Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn | 18 | 11 | 0% | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 9–15 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 31 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 3% | 96% | Majority |
| 33 | 11% | 94% | |
| 34 | 27% | 83% | |
| 35 | 27% | 56% | Last Result |
| 36 | 15% | 29% | Median |
| 37 | 11% | 13% | |
| 38 | 2% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 28 | 4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 29 | 11% | 94% | |
| 30 | 23% | 83% | |
| 31 | 30% | 60% | Median |
| 32 | 21% | 30% | Majority |
| 33 | 6% | 9% | |
| 34 | 3% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 27 | 16% | 97% | |
| 28 | 10% | 81% | |
| 29 | 13% | 71% | |
| 30 | 32% | 58% | |
| 31 | 17% | 26% | Median |
| 32 | 7% | 9% | Majority |
| 33 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 25 | 8% | 94% | |
| 26 | 15% | 87% | |
| 27 | 17% | 72% | |
| 28 | 34% | 55% | |
| 29 | 11% | 21% | Median |
| 30 | 7% | 10% | |
| 31 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 33 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 24 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 25 | 8% | 96% | |
| 26 | 23% | 88% | Last Result |
| 27 | 18% | 65% | |
| 28 | 18% | 47% | Median |
| 29 | 24% | 30% | |
| 30 | 5% | 6% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 22 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 4% | 96% | |
| 24 | 18% | 92% | |
| 25 | 38% | 74% | |
| 26 | 23% | 35% | Median |
| 27 | 8% | 12% | Last Result |
| 28 | 2% | 4% | |
| 29 | 3% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 11% | 98.9% | |
| 24 | 14% | 88% | Last Result |
| 25 | 33% | 74% | |
| 26 | 20% | 41% | Median |
| 27 | 16% | 22% | |
| 28 | 4% | 5% | |
| 29 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 22 | 11% | 96% | |
| 23 | 17% | 85% | |
| 24 | 47% | 68% | Last Result, Median |
| 25 | 11% | 21% | |
| 26 | 7% | 11% | |
| 27 | 2% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 21 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 22 | 10% | 97% | |
| 23 | 27% | 87% | Last Result |
| 24 | 22% | 60% | Median |
| 25 | 21% | 38% | |
| 26 | 11% | 17% | |
| 27 | 5% | 6% | |
| 28 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 4% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 21 | 19% | 95% | |
| 22 | 20% | 76% | |
| 23 | 27% | 56% | Median |
| 24 | 18% | 29% | |
| 25 | 10% | 11% | |
| 26 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 8% | 99.5% | |
| 19 | 14% | 92% | |
| 20 | 10% | 77% | |
| 21 | 23% | 67% | |
| 22 | 21% | 44% | |
| 23 | 14% | 23% | Median |
| 24 | 7% | 8% | |
| 25 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 16% | 98% | |
| 19 | 23% | 82% | |
| 20 | 26% | 59% | |
| 21 | 23% | 33% | Median |
| 22 | 6% | 10% | |
| 23 | 3% | 4% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 16 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 17 | 13% | 96% | |
| 18 | 21% | 83% | |
| 19 | 17% | 62% | Last Result |
| 20 | 30% | 45% | Median |
| 21 | 13% | 14% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 6% | 99.4% | |
| 16 | 10% | 93% | |
| 17 | 29% | 83% | |
| 18 | 27% | 54% | |
| 19 | 9% | 28% | Median |
| 20 | 12% | 19% | |
| 21 | 5% | 7% | |
| 22 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 12% | 96% | |
| 17 | 24% | 84% | |
| 18 | 34% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 19 | 18% | 26% | |
| 20 | 7% | 8% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 9% | 96% | |
| 15 | 36% | 87% | |
| 16 | 38% | 51% | Median |
| 17 | 10% | 14% | Last Result |
| 18 | 3% | 4% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 9 | 7% | 99.5% | |
| 10 | 14% | 92% | |
| 11 | 33% | 78% | |
| 12 | 14% | 46% | |
| 13 | 25% | 31% | Median |
| 14 | 6% | 6% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Maskína
- Commissioner(s): Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir
- Fieldwork period: 13–23 August 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 823
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.49%