Opinion Poll by Maskína for Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir, 13–23 August 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
23.3% |
21.5–25.3% |
21.0–25.8% |
20.6–26.3% |
19.7–27.3% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
14.2% |
12.8–15.9% |
12.3–16.4% |
12.0–16.8% |
11.3–17.6% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
13.0% |
11.6–14.6% |
11.2–15.1% |
10.9–15.5% |
10.2–16.3% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
12.6% |
11.3–14.2% |
10.9–14.7% |
10.5–15.1% |
9.9–15.9% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.7% |
9.4–12.2% |
9.1–12.6% |
8.8–13.0% |
8.2–13.7% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
9.8% |
8.6–11.3% |
8.3–11.7% |
8.0–12.1% |
7.4–12.8% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
6.9% |
5.9–8.2% |
5.6–8.6% |
5.4–8.9% |
4.9–9.5% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
5.1% |
4.2–6.2% |
4.0–6.6% |
3.8–6.8% |
3.4–7.4% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.3% |
3.5–5.3% |
3.3–5.6% |
3.1–5.9% |
2.7–6.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
2% |
100% |
|
14 |
14% |
98% |
|
15 |
31% |
84% |
|
16 |
30% |
54% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
13% |
24% |
|
18 |
7% |
10% |
|
19 |
3% |
3% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
3% |
100% |
|
8 |
15% |
97% |
|
9 |
23% |
82% |
|
10 |
55% |
59% |
Median |
11 |
2% |
4% |
Last Result |
12 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
7 |
13% |
99.5% |
Last Result |
8 |
51% |
87% |
Median |
9 |
28% |
36% |
|
10 |
8% |
8% |
|
11 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
1.2% |
99.6% |
|
8 |
17% |
98% |
Last Result |
9 |
18% |
81% |
|
10 |
48% |
63% |
Median |
11 |
14% |
15% |
|
12 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
25% |
97% |
|
7 |
50% |
72% |
Median |
8 |
21% |
22% |
|
9 |
2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
26% |
98% |
|
6 |
35% |
71% |
Last Result, Median |
7 |
31% |
36% |
|
8 |
4% |
5% |
|
9 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.4% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
3 |
9% |
99.6% |
|
4 |
49% |
90% |
Median |
5 |
34% |
42% |
|
6 |
8% |
8% |
|
7 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
|
1 |
45% |
97% |
|
2 |
0.1% |
53% |
|
3 |
44% |
53% |
Median |
4 |
9% |
9% |
|
5 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
87% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
13% |
|
2 |
0.1% |
13% |
|
3 |
12% |
13% |
|
4 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
35 |
96% |
33–37 |
32–37 |
31–38 |
31–38 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar |
28 |
31 |
30% |
29–32 |
28–33 |
28–34 |
26–35 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
30 |
9% |
27–31 |
27–32 |
26–32 |
26–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
28 |
0.9% |
25–30 |
24–30 |
24–31 |
24–33 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
27 |
0.1% |
25–29 |
25–30 |
24–30 |
24–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
25 |
0% |
24–27 |
23–27 |
22–29 |
22–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
25 |
0% |
23–27 |
23–28 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar |
24 |
24 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–26 |
21–27 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
24 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–27 |
21–27 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
23 |
0% |
21–25 |
21–25 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
21 |
0% |
19–23 |
18–24 |
18–24 |
17–25 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
20 |
0% |
18–22 |
18–22 |
18–23 |
17–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
19 |
0% |
17–21 |
17–21 |
16–21 |
16–22 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
18 |
0% |
16–20 |
15–21 |
15–21 |
14–22 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
18 |
18 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–20 |
15–20 |
15–21 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
16 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–17 |
13–18 |
13–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
11 |
0% |
10–13 |
9–14 |
9–14 |
9–15 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
31 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
32 |
3% |
96% |
Majority |
33 |
11% |
94% |
|
34 |
27% |
83% |
|
35 |
27% |
56% |
Last Result |
36 |
15% |
29% |
Median |
37 |
11% |
13% |
|
38 |
2% |
3% |
|
39 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
28 |
4% |
98% |
Last Result |
29 |
11% |
94% |
|
30 |
23% |
83% |
|
31 |
30% |
60% |
Median |
32 |
21% |
30% |
Majority |
33 |
6% |
9% |
|
34 |
3% |
3% |
|
35 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
27 |
16% |
97% |
|
28 |
10% |
81% |
|
29 |
13% |
71% |
|
30 |
32% |
58% |
|
31 |
17% |
26% |
Median |
32 |
7% |
9% |
Majority |
33 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
5% |
99.6% |
|
25 |
8% |
94% |
|
26 |
15% |
87% |
|
27 |
17% |
72% |
|
28 |
34% |
55% |
|
29 |
11% |
21% |
Median |
30 |
7% |
10% |
|
31 |
2% |
3% |
Last Result |
32 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
Majority |
33 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
24 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
25 |
8% |
96% |
|
26 |
23% |
88% |
Last Result |
27 |
18% |
65% |
|
28 |
18% |
47% |
Median |
29 |
24% |
30% |
|
30 |
5% |
6% |
|
31 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
22 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
4% |
96% |
|
24 |
18% |
92% |
|
25 |
38% |
74% |
|
26 |
23% |
35% |
Median |
27 |
8% |
12% |
Last Result |
28 |
2% |
4% |
|
29 |
3% |
3% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
23 |
11% |
98.9% |
|
24 |
14% |
88% |
Last Result |
25 |
33% |
74% |
|
26 |
20% |
41% |
Median |
27 |
16% |
22% |
|
28 |
4% |
5% |
|
29 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
22 |
11% |
96% |
|
23 |
17% |
85% |
|
24 |
47% |
68% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
11% |
21% |
|
26 |
7% |
11% |
|
27 |
2% |
3% |
|
28 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
22 |
10% |
97% |
|
23 |
27% |
87% |
Last Result |
24 |
22% |
60% |
Median |
25 |
21% |
38% |
|
26 |
11% |
17% |
|
27 |
5% |
6% |
|
28 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
20 |
4% |
99.0% |
Last Result |
21 |
19% |
95% |
|
22 |
20% |
76% |
|
23 |
27% |
56% |
Median |
24 |
18% |
29% |
|
25 |
10% |
11% |
|
26 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
8% |
99.5% |
|
19 |
14% |
92% |
|
20 |
10% |
77% |
|
21 |
23% |
67% |
|
22 |
21% |
44% |
|
23 |
14% |
23% |
Median |
24 |
7% |
8% |
|
25 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
17 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
18 |
16% |
98% |
|
19 |
23% |
82% |
|
20 |
26% |
59% |
|
21 |
23% |
33% |
Median |
22 |
6% |
10% |
|
23 |
3% |
4% |
|
24 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
4% |
99.6% |
|
17 |
13% |
96% |
|
18 |
21% |
83% |
|
19 |
17% |
62% |
Last Result |
20 |
30% |
45% |
Median |
21 |
13% |
14% |
|
22 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
15 |
6% |
99.4% |
|
16 |
10% |
93% |
|
17 |
29% |
83% |
|
18 |
27% |
54% |
|
19 |
9% |
28% |
Median |
20 |
12% |
19% |
|
21 |
5% |
7% |
|
22 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
23 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
15 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
16 |
12% |
96% |
|
17 |
24% |
84% |
|
18 |
34% |
60% |
Last Result, Median |
19 |
18% |
26% |
|
20 |
7% |
8% |
|
21 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
14 |
9% |
96% |
|
15 |
36% |
87% |
|
16 |
38% |
51% |
Median |
17 |
10% |
14% |
Last Result |
18 |
3% |
4% |
|
19 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
9 |
7% |
99.5% |
|
10 |
14% |
92% |
|
11 |
33% |
78% |
|
12 |
14% |
46% |
|
13 |
25% |
31% |
Median |
14 |
6% |
6% |
|
15 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Maskína
- Commissioner(s): Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir
- Fieldwork period: 13–23 August 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 823
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.49%