Opinion Poll by MMR, 24 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.8% 22.1–25.7% 21.6–26.3% 21.2–26.7% 20.4–27.6%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 12.5% 11.2–14.0% 10.9–14.5% 10.5–14.8% 9.9–15.6%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.9% 9.6–12.3% 9.3–12.7% 9.0–13.1% 8.5–13.8%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 10.5% 9.3–12.0% 9.0–12.4% 8.7–12.7% 8.2–13.4%
Píratar 9.2% 10.5% 9.3–12.0% 9.0–12.4% 8.7–12.7% 8.2–13.4%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.4% 9.2–11.8% 8.9–12.3% 8.6–12.6% 8.1–13.3%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 8.7% 7.6–10.0% 7.3–10.4% 7.0–10.7% 6.5–11.4%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 6.2% 5.2–7.3% 5.0–7.6% 4.8–7.9% 4.4–8.5%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.1% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.8–6.7% 3.4–7.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 15–19 14–19 14–19 13–19
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 8–10 8–12 7–12 7–12
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–9
Samfylkingin 7 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Píratar 6 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Viðreisn 4 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 5 4–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 3–4 1–5 1–5 1–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 1.1% 100%  
14 9% 98.9%  
15 19% 90%  
16 17% 72% Last Result
17 19% 54% Median
18 23% 35%  
19 12% 13%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 3% 99.8%  
8 55% 97% Last Result, Median
9 13% 42%  
10 19% 29%  
11 4% 10%  
12 5% 5%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100%  
6 31% 97%  
7 32% 65% Median
8 26% 33%  
9 6% 7%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 8% 99.9%  
6 38% 92%  
7 43% 54% Last Result, Median
8 10% 11%  
9 1.0% 1.0%  
10 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 9% 99.7%  
6 36% 91% Last Result
7 40% 55% Median
8 14% 15%  
9 1.0% 1.0%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100% Last Result
5 9% 99.8%  
6 37% 90%  
7 39% 54% Median
8 13% 14%  
9 1.2% 1.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 17% 99.9%  
5 47% 83% Median
6 29% 36%  
7 7% 7%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 6% 100%  
2 0% 94%  
3 34% 94%  
4 54% 60% Median
5 5% 6%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 41% 100%  
1 0% 59%  
2 0% 59%  
3 45% 59% Median
4 13% 13% Last Result
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 32 70% 30–35 30–35 30–36 28–36
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 29 8% 27–31 26–32 26–33 25–34
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 33 26 0.1% 24–28 24–29 23–30 22–31
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn 28 27 0.2% 24–29 24–30 23–30 22–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 25 0% 23–28 23–28 22–29 22–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 23 0% 21–25 20–26 20–26 19–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 24 0% 21–25 21–26 20–26 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 24 0% 21–25 20–25 20–26 19–26
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 26 22 0% 20–25 20–26 19–26 19–27
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 26 19 0% 18–21 17–22 17–23 16–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 20 0% 18–22 17–23 17–23 16–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin 24 20 0% 18–22 18–23 17–23 16–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 17 0% 15–19 15–19 14–20 13–21
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 16 0% 14–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 14 0% 12–15 12–16 11–16 10–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 14 0% 12–15 12–16 11–16 10–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 11 0% 9–12 8–12 8–13 7–13

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.5% 100%  
29 2% 99.4%  
30 8% 98%  
31 20% 90%  
32 20% 70% Median, Majority
33 26% 50%  
34 11% 24%  
35 8% 13% Last Result
36 4% 4%  
37 0.4% 0.5%  
38 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.0% 99.9%  
26 6% 98.8%  
27 16% 93%  
28 17% 77%  
29 22% 60% Median
30 15% 38%  
31 15% 23% Last Result
32 4% 8% Majority
33 3% 3%  
34 0.6% 0.6%  
35 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.9%  
23 4% 99.2%  
24 14% 95%  
25 21% 81%  
26 27% 60% Median
27 15% 33%  
28 9% 18%  
29 6% 9%  
30 2% 3%  
31 1.0% 1.0%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.7%  
23 2% 99.3%  
24 8% 97%  
25 13% 89%  
26 20% 76%  
27 18% 56%  
28 16% 38% Last Result, Median
29 16% 21%  
30 4% 6%  
31 1.1% 1.3%  
32 0.2% 0.2% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.4% 100%  
22 2% 99.6%  
23 11% 97%  
24 19% 87% Last Result
25 20% 67% Median
26 19% 47%  
27 15% 28%  
28 8% 13%  
29 4% 5%  
30 0.4% 0.8%  
31 0.4% 0.4%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.6% 99.8%  
20 5% 99.2%  
21 11% 94%  
22 15% 84%  
23 20% 68% Last Result
24 27% 48% Median
25 14% 21%  
26 6% 7%  
27 0.6% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 3% 99.6%  
21 8% 97%  
22 10% 89%  
23 23% 79%  
24 24% 57% Median
25 24% 33%  
26 7% 9%  
27 2% 2% Last Result
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.9%  
20 6% 99.0% Last Result
21 10% 93%  
22 16% 83%  
23 16% 67%  
24 24% 51% Median
25 23% 27%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 3% 99.9%  
20 10% 97%  
21 18% 87%  
22 22% 69% Median
23 21% 47%  
24 15% 26%  
25 5% 11%  
26 5% 6% Last Result
27 0.8% 0.9%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.1% 99.8%  
17 5% 98.7%  
18 23% 94%  
19 27% 70% Median
20 21% 43%  
21 15% 23%  
22 5% 8%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.8% 0.9%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 1.0% 99.8%  
17 5% 98.8%  
18 14% 94%  
19 18% 80%  
20 15% 62%  
21 20% 47% Median
22 17% 27%  
23 9% 9% Last Result
24 0.7% 0.7%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 0.6% 99.7%  
17 2% 99.1%  
18 7% 97%  
19 24% 90%  
20 25% 66%  
21 20% 41% Median
22 13% 21%  
23 7% 8%  
24 1.0% 1.1% Last Result
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 1.0% 100%  
14 2% 99.0%  
15 9% 97%  
16 23% 88%  
17 23% 65%  
18 26% 43% Median
19 12% 17%  
20 3% 5%  
21 1.4% 2%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 18% 98%  
15 23% 80% Median
16 26% 57%  
17 18% 31%  
18 8% 13%  
19 5% 5% Last Result
20 0.7% 0.8%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.0% 100%  
11 3% 99.0%  
12 12% 96%  
13 32% 84%  
14 24% 52% Median
15 22% 27%  
16 5% 6%  
17 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.7% 100%  
11 4% 99.3%  
12 18% 96%  
13 24% 77%  
14 27% 53% Median
15 17% 26%  
16 8% 9%  
17 0.7% 0.8%  
18 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 4% 98%  
9 10% 95%  
10 31% 84%  
11 31% 53% Median
12 18% 22%  
13 4% 4%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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