Opinion Poll by MMR, 24 August 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
23.8% |
22.1–25.7% |
21.6–26.3% |
21.2–26.7% |
20.4–27.6% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
12.5% |
11.2–14.0% |
10.9–14.5% |
10.5–14.8% |
9.9–15.6% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.9% |
9.6–12.3% |
9.3–12.7% |
9.0–13.1% |
8.5–13.8% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
10.5% |
9.3–12.0% |
9.0–12.4% |
8.7–12.7% |
8.2–13.4% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
10.5% |
9.3–12.0% |
9.0–12.4% |
8.7–12.7% |
8.2–13.4% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.4% |
9.2–11.8% |
8.9–12.3% |
8.6–12.6% |
8.1–13.3% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
8.7% |
7.6–10.0% |
7.3–10.4% |
7.0–10.7% |
6.5–11.4% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
6.2% |
5.2–7.3% |
5.0–7.6% |
4.8–7.9% |
4.4–8.5% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
5.1% |
4.2–6.1% |
4.0–6.4% |
3.8–6.7% |
3.4–7.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
9% |
98.9% |
|
15 |
19% |
90% |
|
16 |
17% |
72% |
Last Result |
17 |
19% |
54% |
Median |
18 |
23% |
35% |
|
19 |
12% |
13% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
7 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
8 |
55% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
13% |
42% |
|
10 |
19% |
29% |
|
11 |
4% |
10% |
|
12 |
5% |
5% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
3% |
100% |
|
6 |
31% |
97% |
|
7 |
32% |
65% |
Median |
8 |
26% |
33% |
|
9 |
6% |
7% |
|
10 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
8% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
38% |
92% |
|
7 |
43% |
54% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
10% |
11% |
|
9 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
5 |
9% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
36% |
91% |
Last Result |
7 |
40% |
55% |
Median |
8 |
14% |
15% |
|
9 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
9% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
37% |
90% |
|
7 |
39% |
54% |
Median |
8 |
13% |
14% |
|
9 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
17% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
47% |
83% |
Median |
6 |
29% |
36% |
|
7 |
7% |
7% |
|
8 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
6% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
94% |
|
3 |
34% |
94% |
|
4 |
54% |
60% |
Median |
5 |
5% |
6% |
|
6 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
41% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
59% |
|
2 |
0% |
59% |
|
3 |
45% |
59% |
Median |
4 |
13% |
13% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
35 |
32 |
70% |
30–35 |
30–35 |
30–36 |
28–36 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
8% |
27–31 |
26–32 |
26–33 |
25–34 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
26 |
0.1% |
24–28 |
24–29 |
23–30 |
22–31 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn |
28 |
27 |
0.2% |
24–29 |
24–30 |
23–30 |
22–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
25 |
0% |
23–28 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
22–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
23 |
0% |
21–25 |
20–26 |
20–26 |
19–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
24 |
0% |
21–25 |
21–26 |
20–26 |
20–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
24 |
0% |
21–25 |
20–25 |
20–26 |
19–26 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
26 |
22 |
0% |
20–25 |
20–26 |
19–26 |
19–27 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
19 |
0% |
18–21 |
17–22 |
17–23 |
16–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
20 |
0% |
18–22 |
17–23 |
17–23 |
16–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin |
24 |
20 |
0% |
18–22 |
18–23 |
17–23 |
16–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
17 |
0% |
15–19 |
15–19 |
14–20 |
13–21 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
19 |
16 |
0% |
14–18 |
14–19 |
14–19 |
13–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
14 |
0% |
12–15 |
12–16 |
11–16 |
10–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
18 |
14 |
0% |
12–15 |
12–16 |
11–16 |
10–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
11 |
0% |
9–12 |
8–12 |
8–13 |
7–13 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
29 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
30 |
8% |
98% |
|
31 |
20% |
90% |
|
32 |
20% |
70% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
26% |
50% |
|
34 |
11% |
24% |
|
35 |
8% |
13% |
Last Result |
36 |
4% |
4% |
|
37 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
6% |
98.8% |
|
27 |
16% |
93% |
|
28 |
17% |
77% |
|
29 |
22% |
60% |
Median |
30 |
15% |
38% |
|
31 |
15% |
23% |
Last Result |
32 |
4% |
8% |
Majority |
33 |
3% |
3% |
|
34 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
24 |
14% |
95% |
|
25 |
21% |
81% |
|
26 |
27% |
60% |
Median |
27 |
15% |
33% |
|
28 |
9% |
18% |
|
29 |
6% |
9% |
|
30 |
2% |
3% |
|
31 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
23 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
24 |
8% |
97% |
|
25 |
13% |
89% |
|
26 |
20% |
76% |
|
27 |
18% |
56% |
|
28 |
16% |
38% |
Last Result, Median |
29 |
16% |
21% |
|
30 |
4% |
6% |
|
31 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
23 |
11% |
97% |
|
24 |
19% |
87% |
Last Result |
25 |
20% |
67% |
Median |
26 |
19% |
47% |
|
27 |
15% |
28% |
|
28 |
8% |
13% |
|
29 |
4% |
5% |
|
30 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
31 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
5% |
99.2% |
|
21 |
11% |
94% |
|
22 |
15% |
84% |
|
23 |
20% |
68% |
Last Result |
24 |
27% |
48% |
Median |
25 |
14% |
21% |
|
26 |
6% |
7% |
|
27 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
20 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
21 |
8% |
97% |
|
22 |
10% |
89% |
|
23 |
23% |
79% |
|
24 |
24% |
57% |
Median |
25 |
24% |
33% |
|
26 |
7% |
9% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
28 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
6% |
99.0% |
Last Result |
21 |
10% |
93% |
|
22 |
16% |
83% |
|
23 |
16% |
67% |
|
24 |
24% |
51% |
Median |
25 |
23% |
27% |
|
26 |
3% |
3% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
10% |
97% |
|
21 |
18% |
87% |
|
22 |
22% |
69% |
Median |
23 |
21% |
47% |
|
24 |
15% |
26% |
|
25 |
5% |
11% |
|
26 |
5% |
6% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
1.1% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
5% |
98.7% |
|
18 |
23% |
94% |
|
19 |
27% |
70% |
Median |
20 |
21% |
43% |
|
21 |
15% |
23% |
|
22 |
5% |
8% |
|
23 |
2% |
3% |
|
24 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
25 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
16 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
5% |
98.8% |
|
18 |
14% |
94% |
|
19 |
18% |
80% |
|
20 |
15% |
62% |
|
21 |
20% |
47% |
Median |
22 |
17% |
27% |
|
23 |
9% |
9% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
17 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
18 |
7% |
97% |
|
19 |
24% |
90% |
|
20 |
25% |
66% |
|
21 |
20% |
41% |
Median |
22 |
13% |
21% |
|
23 |
7% |
8% |
|
24 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
14 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
15 |
9% |
97% |
|
16 |
23% |
88% |
|
17 |
23% |
65% |
|
18 |
26% |
43% |
Median |
19 |
12% |
17% |
|
20 |
3% |
5% |
|
21 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
18% |
98% |
|
15 |
23% |
80% |
Median |
16 |
26% |
57% |
|
17 |
18% |
31% |
|
18 |
8% |
13% |
|
19 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
20 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
11 |
3% |
99.0% |
|
12 |
12% |
96% |
|
13 |
32% |
84% |
|
14 |
24% |
52% |
Median |
15 |
22% |
27% |
|
16 |
5% |
6% |
|
17 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
11 |
4% |
99.3% |
|
12 |
18% |
96% |
|
13 |
24% |
77% |
|
14 |
27% |
53% |
Median |
15 |
17% |
26% |
|
16 |
8% |
9% |
|
17 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
8 |
4% |
98% |
|
9 |
10% |
95% |
|
10 |
31% |
84% |
|
11 |
31% |
53% |
Median |
12 |
18% |
22% |
|
13 |
4% |
4% |
|
14 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 24 August 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 910
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.78%