Opinion Poll by Gallup, 29 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 24.2% 23.1–25.4% 22.8–25.7% 22.5–26.0% 22.0–26.5%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.3% 11.5–13.2% 11.2–13.5% 11.0–13.7% 10.6–14.2%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 11.5% 10.7–12.4% 10.4–12.6% 10.2–12.8% 9.9–13.3%
Píratar 9.2% 10.9% 10.1–11.8% 9.9–12.0% 9.7–12.2% 9.3–12.7%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.6% 9.8–11.5% 9.6–11.7% 9.4–11.9% 9.1–12.4%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 9.7% 9.0–10.5% 8.7–10.8% 8.6–11.0% 8.2–11.4%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 8.2% 7.5–9.0% 7.3–9.2% 7.1–9.4% 6.8–9.8%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 7.0% 6.3–7.7% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.5%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.9% 4.4–5.5% 4.2–5.7% 4.1–5.9% 3.8–6.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 15–19 15–19 14–19 14–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–10
Samfylkingin 7 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Píratar 6 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–8
Viðreisn 4 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–8
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–8
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 4% 100%  
15 20% 96%  
16 32% 76% Last Result, Median
17 15% 44%  
18 16% 29%  
19 13% 13%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.3% 100%  
7 17% 98.7%  
8 53% 81% Median
9 27% 29%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 13% 99.9%  
7 55% 87% Last Result, Median
8 31% 32%  
9 1.2% 1.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100%  
6 25% 99.3% Last Result
7 57% 74% Median
8 17% 18%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.5% 100%  
6 44% 99.5%  
7 41% 55% Median
8 14% 14%  
9 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 9% 100%  
6 32% 91%  
7 32% 58% Median
8 26% 26% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 14% 100%  
5 72% 86% Median
6 14% 14%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 75% 98% Median
5 23% 23%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100%  
1 0% 51%  
2 0% 51%  
3 51% 51% Median
4 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 32 52% 30–33 29–33 29–34 28–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 29 2% 26–31 25–31 25–31 25–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 27 0% 26–30 25–30 25–30 24–31
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 26 0% 24–28 24–28 24–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 23–26 23–27 23–27 22–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 22–25 21–26 21–26 20–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 24 0% 22–26 22–26 21–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 21–25 21–25 21–26 20–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–24 20–24 20–24 19–25
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 24 22 0% 20–24 19–24 19–24 19–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 21 0% 19–23 19–23 18–23 18–24
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 19 0% 18–21 17–21 17–22 17–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 19 0% 18–20 17–21 17–21 16–22
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 15 0% 13–16 13–17 13–17 12–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 15 0% 14–17 13–17 13–17 13–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 15 0% 13–16 13–16 13–16 13–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 12 0% 11–13 11–14 11–14 10–15

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 2% 99.9%  
29 4% 98%  
30 14% 94%  
31 28% 80% Median
32 36% 52% Majority
33 12% 15%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 5% 100%  
26 5% 95%  
27 9% 90%  
28 21% 81% Last Result
29 19% 60% Median
30 16% 40%  
31 22% 24%  
32 2% 2% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.9% 99.9%  
25 6% 99.0%  
26 12% 93%  
27 39% 81% Median
28 16% 42%  
29 16% 26%  
30 9% 10%  
31 1.3% 1.3% Last Result
32 0% 0% Majority

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.6%  
24 14% 98.9%  
25 16% 85%  
26 22% 70% Median
27 26% 48%  
28 19% 22%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.6% 0.6%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 2% 100%  
23 17% 98%  
24 25% 81% Median
25 28% 56%  
26 22% 28%  
27 5% 5% Last Result
28 0.6% 0.7%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 2% 99.9%  
21 6% 98%  
22 15% 92%  
23 37% 76% Median
24 20% 39% Last Result
25 11% 19%  
26 7% 8%  
27 1.1% 1.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 3% 99.9%  
22 19% 97%  
23 20% 78% Last Result, Median
24 25% 57%  
25 22% 33%  
26 8% 10%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 2% 100% Last Result
21 13% 98%  
22 18% 85%  
23 21% 68% Median
24 21% 46%  
25 21% 25%  
26 4% 4%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.6%  
20 15% 98.8%  
21 20% 84%  
22 22% 64% Median
23 26% 42%  
24 14% 16%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 6% 100%  
20 6% 94%  
21 17% 88%  
22 25% 72% Median
23 27% 47%  
24 19% 20% Last Result
25 1.0% 1.0%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 3% 100%  
19 18% 97%  
20 29% 79% Median
21 19% 50%  
22 14% 32%  
23 17% 18% Last Result
24 1.4% 1.4%  
25 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 7% 99.8%  
18 11% 93%  
19 32% 81% Median
20 25% 50%  
21 21% 24%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.5% 0.5%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.9% 99.8%  
17 8% 98.9%  
18 23% 90%  
19 27% 67% Median
20 31% 40%  
21 8% 9%  
22 1.1% 1.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 0.9% 99.8%  
13 10% 98.9%  
14 32% 88%  
15 21% 57% Median
16 31% 36%  
17 5% 5%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 7% 99.9%  
14 13% 93%  
15 38% 80% Median
16 26% 42%  
17 15% 16%  
18 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 12% 99.9%  
14 18% 88%  
15 28% 70% Median
16 40% 42%  
17 1.3% 2% Last Result
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.4% 100%  
11 15% 98.5%  
12 43% 84% Median
13 35% 41%  
14 6% 7%  
15 0.6% 0.6%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations