Opinion Poll by Gallup, 29 August 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
24.2% |
23.1–25.4% |
22.8–25.7% |
22.5–26.0% |
22.0–26.5% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
12.3% |
11.5–13.2% |
11.2–13.5% |
11.0–13.7% |
10.6–14.2% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
11.5% |
10.7–12.4% |
10.4–12.6% |
10.2–12.8% |
9.9–13.3% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
10.9% |
10.1–11.8% |
9.9–12.0% |
9.7–12.2% |
9.3–12.7% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.6% |
9.8–11.5% |
9.6–11.7% |
9.4–11.9% |
9.1–12.4% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
9.7% |
9.0–10.5% |
8.7–10.8% |
8.6–11.0% |
8.2–11.4% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
8.2% |
7.5–9.0% |
7.3–9.2% |
7.1–9.4% |
6.8–9.8% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
7.0% |
6.3–7.7% |
6.2–7.9% |
6.0–8.1% |
5.7–8.5% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.9% |
4.4–5.5% |
4.2–5.7% |
4.1–5.9% |
3.8–6.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
4% |
100% |
|
15 |
20% |
96% |
|
16 |
32% |
76% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
15% |
44% |
|
18 |
16% |
29% |
|
19 |
13% |
13% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
7 |
17% |
98.7% |
|
8 |
53% |
81% |
Median |
9 |
27% |
29% |
|
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
13% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
55% |
87% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
31% |
32% |
|
9 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
6 |
25% |
99.3% |
Last Result |
7 |
57% |
74% |
Median |
8 |
17% |
18% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
6 |
44% |
99.5% |
|
7 |
41% |
55% |
Median |
8 |
14% |
14% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
9% |
100% |
|
6 |
32% |
91% |
|
7 |
32% |
58% |
Median |
8 |
26% |
26% |
Last Result |
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
14% |
100% |
|
5 |
72% |
86% |
Median |
6 |
14% |
14% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
2% |
100% |
|
4 |
75% |
98% |
Median |
5 |
23% |
23% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
49% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
51% |
|
2 |
0% |
51% |
|
3 |
51% |
51% |
Median |
4 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
32 |
52% |
30–33 |
29–33 |
29–34 |
28–35 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
29 |
2% |
26–31 |
25–31 |
25–31 |
25–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
27 |
0% |
26–30 |
25–30 |
25–30 |
24–31 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
26 |
0% |
24–28 |
24–28 |
24–29 |
23–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
25 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–27 |
23–27 |
22–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–26 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
24 |
0% |
22–26 |
22–26 |
21–26 |
21–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
23 |
0% |
21–25 |
21–25 |
21–26 |
20–26 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
20–24 |
20–24 |
19–25 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar |
24 |
22 |
0% |
20–24 |
19–24 |
19–24 |
19–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
21 |
0% |
19–23 |
19–23 |
18–23 |
18–24 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
19 |
0% |
18–21 |
17–21 |
17–22 |
17–23 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
19 |
0% |
18–20 |
17–21 |
17–21 |
16–22 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
15 |
0% |
13–16 |
13–17 |
13–17 |
12–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
18 |
15 |
0% |
14–17 |
13–17 |
13–17 |
13–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
15 |
0% |
13–16 |
13–16 |
13–16 |
13–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
12 |
0% |
11–13 |
11–14 |
11–14 |
10–15 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
4% |
98% |
|
30 |
14% |
94% |
|
31 |
28% |
80% |
Median |
32 |
36% |
52% |
Majority |
33 |
12% |
15% |
|
34 |
2% |
3% |
|
35 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
5% |
100% |
|
26 |
5% |
95% |
|
27 |
9% |
90% |
|
28 |
21% |
81% |
Last Result |
29 |
19% |
60% |
Median |
30 |
16% |
40% |
|
31 |
22% |
24% |
|
32 |
2% |
2% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
6% |
99.0% |
|
26 |
12% |
93% |
|
27 |
39% |
81% |
Median |
28 |
16% |
42% |
|
29 |
16% |
26% |
|
30 |
9% |
10% |
|
31 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
Last Result |
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.7% |
99.6% |
|
24 |
14% |
98.9% |
|
25 |
16% |
85% |
|
26 |
22% |
70% |
Median |
27 |
26% |
48% |
|
28 |
19% |
22% |
|
29 |
2% |
3% |
|
30 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
2% |
100% |
|
23 |
17% |
98% |
|
24 |
25% |
81% |
Median |
25 |
28% |
56% |
|
26 |
22% |
28% |
|
27 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
28 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
6% |
98% |
|
22 |
15% |
92% |
|
23 |
37% |
76% |
Median |
24 |
20% |
39% |
Last Result |
25 |
11% |
19% |
|
26 |
7% |
8% |
|
27 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
19% |
97% |
|
23 |
20% |
78% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
25% |
57% |
|
25 |
22% |
33% |
|
26 |
8% |
10% |
|
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
13% |
98% |
|
22 |
18% |
85% |
|
23 |
21% |
68% |
Median |
24 |
21% |
46% |
|
25 |
21% |
25% |
|
26 |
4% |
4% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.9% |
99.6% |
|
20 |
15% |
98.8% |
|
21 |
20% |
84% |
|
22 |
22% |
64% |
Median |
23 |
26% |
42% |
|
24 |
14% |
16% |
|
25 |
2% |
2% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
6% |
100% |
|
20 |
6% |
94% |
|
21 |
17% |
88% |
|
22 |
25% |
72% |
Median |
23 |
27% |
47% |
|
24 |
19% |
20% |
Last Result |
25 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
3% |
100% |
|
19 |
18% |
97% |
|
20 |
29% |
79% |
Median |
21 |
19% |
50% |
|
22 |
14% |
32% |
|
23 |
17% |
18% |
Last Result |
24 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
17 |
7% |
99.8% |
|
18 |
11% |
93% |
|
19 |
32% |
81% |
Median |
20 |
25% |
50% |
|
21 |
21% |
24% |
|
22 |
3% |
3% |
|
23 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
8% |
98.9% |
|
18 |
23% |
90% |
|
19 |
27% |
67% |
Median |
20 |
31% |
40% |
|
21 |
8% |
9% |
|
22 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
13 |
10% |
98.9% |
|
14 |
32% |
88% |
|
15 |
21% |
57% |
Median |
16 |
31% |
36% |
|
17 |
5% |
5% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
7% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
13% |
93% |
|
15 |
38% |
80% |
Median |
16 |
26% |
42% |
|
17 |
15% |
16% |
|
18 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
12% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
18% |
88% |
|
15 |
28% |
70% |
Median |
16 |
40% |
42% |
|
17 |
1.3% |
2% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
11 |
15% |
98.5% |
|
12 |
43% |
84% |
Median |
13 |
35% |
41% |
|
14 |
6% |
7% |
|
15 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 29 August 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 2307
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.70%