Opinion Poll by Maskína for Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir, 31 August–6 September 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
23.9% |
22.7–25.1% |
22.4–25.5% |
22.1–25.8% |
21.6–26.4% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
12.5% |
11.6–13.5% |
11.4–13.7% |
11.1–14.0% |
10.7–14.5% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
12.3% |
11.4–13.3% |
11.2–13.6% |
11.0–13.8% |
10.6–14.3% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
11.7% |
10.8–12.6% |
10.6–12.9% |
10.4–13.1% |
10.0–13.6% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
11.5% |
10.6–12.4% |
10.4–12.7% |
10.2–12.9% |
9.8–13.4% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.2% |
10.4–12.1% |
10.1–12.4% |
9.9–12.6% |
9.5–13.1% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
7.9% |
7.2–8.7% |
7.0–8.9% |
6.8–9.1% |
6.5–9.5% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
4.5% |
4.0–5.2% |
3.8–5.3% |
3.7–5.5% |
3.5–5.8% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.5% |
4.0–5.2% |
3.8–5.3% |
3.7–5.5% |
3.5–5.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
15 |
17% |
99.7% |
|
16 |
47% |
83% |
Last Result, Median |
17 |
31% |
35% |
|
18 |
4% |
4% |
|
19 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
2% |
100% |
|
8 |
28% |
98% |
|
9 |
65% |
70% |
Median |
10 |
5% |
5% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
7% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
73% |
93% |
Median |
9 |
20% |
20% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
7 |
27% |
99.3% |
|
8 |
63% |
72% |
Median |
9 |
9% |
9% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
7 |
6% |
99.2% |
|
8 |
67% |
93% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
24% |
26% |
|
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
1.0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
42% |
99.0% |
|
8 |
56% |
57% |
Median |
9 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
10% |
100% |
|
5 |
74% |
90% |
Median |
6 |
16% |
16% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
11% |
100% |
|
1 |
86% |
89% |
Median |
2 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
3 |
3% |
3% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
89% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
11% |
|
2 |
0% |
11% |
|
3 |
11% |
11% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
35 |
33 |
97% |
32–34 |
32–35 |
31–35 |
30–35 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar |
28 |
32 |
87% |
31–33 |
30–34 |
30–34 |
29–34 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
26 |
0% |
25–27 |
25–27 |
25–28 |
24–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
24–27 |
24–27 |
24–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
23–27 |
23–27 |
22–27 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
26 |
25 |
0% |
24–26 |
24–26 |
24–26 |
23–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
25 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar |
24 |
25 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
22–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–26 |
23–26 |
22–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
23–25 |
22–26 |
22–26 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
18 |
0% |
17–18 |
16–19 |
16–20 |
16–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
18 |
0% |
17–18 |
17–19 |
17–19 |
16–21 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
17 |
0% |
16–18 |
16–18 |
16–19 |
16–20 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
19 |
17 |
0% |
16–17 |
16–18 |
16–18 |
15–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin |
18 |
17 |
0% |
16–17 |
16–18 |
16–18 |
15–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
15–17 |
15–17 |
14–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
10 |
0% |
9–10 |
8–11 |
8–11 |
8–13 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
31 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
32 |
20% |
97% |
Majority |
33 |
39% |
77% |
Median |
34 |
32% |
37% |
|
35 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
36 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
29 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
30 |
8% |
99.4% |
|
31 |
4% |
91% |
|
32 |
45% |
87% |
Majority |
33 |
36% |
41% |
Median |
34 |
5% |
5% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
20% |
99.3% |
|
26 |
59% |
79% |
Median |
27 |
17% |
21% |
|
28 |
3% |
3% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
24 |
17% |
99.6% |
|
25 |
34% |
82% |
Median |
26 |
41% |
49% |
|
27 |
6% |
7% |
|
28 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
4% |
98% |
|
24 |
33% |
95% |
|
25 |
27% |
61% |
Median |
26 |
29% |
34% |
|
27 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
28 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
23 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
24 |
14% |
98% |
|
25 |
61% |
84% |
Median |
26 |
21% |
23% |
Last Result |
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
23 |
19% |
99.6% |
|
24 |
25% |
80% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
49% |
55% |
|
26 |
6% |
7% |
|
27 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
28 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
22 |
1.3% |
99.7% |
|
23 |
11% |
98% |
|
24 |
35% |
87% |
Last Result |
25 |
47% |
52% |
Median |
26 |
5% |
5% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
23 |
15% |
98.5% |
Last Result |
24 |
38% |
84% |
Median |
25 |
39% |
45% |
|
26 |
6% |
7% |
|
27 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
21 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
22 |
4% |
99.7% |
|
23 |
28% |
96% |
|
24 |
32% |
67% |
Median |
25 |
31% |
35% |
|
26 |
4% |
4% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
7% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
16% |
93% |
|
18 |
68% |
77% |
Median |
19 |
6% |
9% |
|
20 |
3% |
3% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
20% |
98.9% |
|
18 |
71% |
79% |
Median |
19 |
7% |
9% |
|
20 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
21 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
16 |
22% |
99.6% |
|
17 |
43% |
78% |
Median |
18 |
30% |
35% |
|
19 |
4% |
5% |
|
20 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
10% |
98% |
|
17 |
81% |
88% |
Median |
18 |
7% |
7% |
|
19 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
20% |
98% |
|
17 |
68% |
77% |
Median |
18 |
8% |
9% |
Last Result |
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
11% |
98% |
|
16 |
46% |
88% |
|
17 |
40% |
42% |
Last Result, Median |
18 |
2% |
2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
9% |
100% |
|
9 |
23% |
91% |
|
10 |
62% |
69% |
Median |
11 |
5% |
6% |
|
12 |
0.4% |
1.4% |
|
13 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Maskína
- Commissioner(s): Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir
- Fieldwork period: 31 August–6 September 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 2080
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.60%