Opinion Poll by Maskína for Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir, 31 August–6 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.9% 22.7–25.1% 22.4–25.5% 22.1–25.8% 21.6–26.4%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.5% 11.6–13.5% 11.4–13.7% 11.1–14.0% 10.7–14.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 12.3% 11.4–13.3% 11.2–13.6% 11.0–13.8% 10.6–14.3%
Viðreisn 6.7% 11.7% 10.8–12.6% 10.6–12.9% 10.4–13.1% 10.0–13.6%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 11.5% 10.6–12.4% 10.4–12.7% 10.2–12.9% 9.8–13.4%
Píratar 9.2% 11.2% 10.4–12.1% 10.1–12.4% 9.9–12.6% 9.5–13.1%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 7.9% 7.2–8.7% 7.0–8.9% 6.8–9.1% 6.5–9.5%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 4.5% 4.0–5.2% 3.8–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.5–5.8%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.5% 4.0–5.2% 3.8–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.5–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 16 15–17 15–17 15–18 15–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 9 8–9 8–9 8–10 7–10
Samfylkingin 7 8 8–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Viðreisn 4 8 7–8 7–9 7–9 6–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 8 8–9 7–9 7–9 6–10
Píratar 6 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–9
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Miðflokkurinn 7 1 0–1 0–1 0–3 0–3
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 17% 99.7%  
16 47% 83% Last Result, Median
17 31% 35%  
18 4% 4%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100%  
8 28% 98%  
9 65% 70% Median
10 5% 5%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 7% 100% Last Result
8 73% 93% Median
9 20% 20%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0.7% 100%  
7 27% 99.3%  
8 63% 72% Median
9 9% 9%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.8% 100%  
7 6% 99.2%  
8 67% 93% Last Result, Median
9 24% 26%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.0% 100% Last Result
7 42% 99.0%  
8 56% 57% Median
9 0.9% 0.9%  
10 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 10% 100%  
5 74% 90% Median
6 16% 16%  
7 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 86% 89% Median
2 0.9% 4%  
3 3% 3%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 11% 11%  
4 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 35 33 97% 32–34 32–35 31–35 30–35
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar 28 32 87% 31–33 30–34 30–34 29–34
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 33 26 0% 25–27 25–27 25–28 24–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 25 0% 24–26 24–27 24–27 24–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 24–26 23–27 23–27 22–27
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn 26 25 0% 24–26 24–26 24–26 23–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 25 0% 23–25 23–26 23–26 23–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar 24 25 0% 23–25 23–26 23–26 22–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 24 0% 23–25 23–26 23–26 22–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 24 0% 23–25 23–25 22–26 22–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 18 0% 17–18 16–19 16–20 16–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 26 18 0% 17–18 17–19 17–19 16–21
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 17 0% 16–18 16–18 16–19 16–20
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn 19 17 0% 16–17 16–18 16–18 15–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 17 0% 16–17 16–18 16–18 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 16 0% 15–17 15–17 15–17 14–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 10 0% 9–10 8–11 8–11 8–13

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.9% 100%  
31 2% 99.1%  
32 20% 97% Majority
33 39% 77% Median
34 32% 37%  
35 5% 5% Last Result
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100% Last Result
29 0.3% 99.7%  
30 8% 99.4%  
31 4% 91%  
32 45% 87% Majority
33 36% 41% Median
34 5% 5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.8%  
25 20% 99.3%  
26 59% 79% Median
27 17% 21%  
28 3% 3%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 17% 99.6%  
25 34% 82% Median
26 41% 49%  
27 6% 7%  
28 0.6% 0.7%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 2% 99.9%  
23 4% 98%  
24 33% 95%  
25 27% 61% Median
26 29% 34%  
27 5% 5% Last Result
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 2% 99.8%  
24 14% 98%  
25 61% 84% Median
26 21% 23% Last Result
27 2% 2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.4% 100%  
23 19% 99.6%  
24 25% 80% Last Result, Median
25 49% 55%  
26 6% 7%  
27 0.3% 0.4%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 1.3% 99.7%  
23 11% 98%  
24 35% 87% Last Result
25 47% 52% Median
26 5% 5%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 1.4% 100%  
23 15% 98.5% Last Result
24 38% 84% Median
25 39% 45%  
26 6% 7%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0.3% 100%  
22 4% 99.7%  
23 28% 96%  
24 32% 67% Median
25 31% 35%  
26 4% 4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 7% 99.9%  
17 16% 93%  
18 68% 77% Median
19 6% 9%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.0% 99.9%  
17 20% 98.9%  
18 71% 79% Median
19 7% 9%  
20 0.7% 2%  
21 1.1% 1.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.4% 100%  
16 22% 99.6%  
17 43% 78% Median
18 30% 35%  
19 4% 5%  
20 0.5% 0.6%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 10% 98%  
17 81% 88% Median
18 7% 7%  
19 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 20% 98%  
17 68% 77% Median
18 8% 9% Last Result
19 2% 2%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.4% 99.9%  
15 11% 98%  
16 46% 88%  
17 40% 42% Last Result, Median
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 9% 100%  
9 23% 91%  
10 62% 69% Median
11 5% 6%  
12 0.4% 1.4%  
13 1.0% 1.0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations