Opinion Poll by MMR, 8–10 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.3% 20.6–24.2% 20.1–24.7% 19.7–25.1% 18.9–26.0%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 14.9% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.0% 12.8–17.4% 12.1–18.2%
Viðreisn 6.7% 12.2% 10.9–13.7% 10.5–14.1% 10.2–14.5% 9.6–15.2%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 11.6% 10.4–13.1% 10.0–13.5% 9.7–13.9% 9.1–14.6%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.5% 9.3–12.0% 9.0–12.4% 8.7–12.7% 8.2–13.4%
Píratar 9.2% 9.9% 8.7–11.3% 8.4–11.7% 8.1–12.0% 7.6–12.7%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 6.7% 5.7–7.9% 5.5–8.2% 5.3–8.5% 4.8–9.1%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 6.0% 5.1–7.2% 4.9–7.5% 4.7–7.8% 4.3–8.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.3% 3.7–6.6% 3.4–7.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 13–17 13–18 13–18 13–19
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 12 10–12 9–13 9–14 8–14
Viðreisn 4 8 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Samfylkingin 7 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 6 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
Píratar 6 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–8
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 0–6
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 3–4 1–4 1–5 1–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 15% 99.6%  
14 23% 84%  
15 31% 62% Median
16 15% 30% Last Result
17 9% 15%  
18 4% 6%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.1% 100% Last Result
9 4% 98.9%  
10 18% 95%  
11 17% 76%  
12 52% 59% Median
13 5% 8%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.4% 100%  
6 6% 99.6%  
7 38% 94%  
8 44% 56% Median
9 10% 12%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 10% 99.5%  
7 51% 90% Last Result, Median
8 31% 38%  
9 7% 7%  
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 8% 99.8%  
6 48% 92% Median
7 20% 44%  
8 20% 24%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.0% 100%  
5 21% 99.0%  
6 52% 78% Last Result, Median
7 20% 26%  
8 6% 6%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 16% 98%  
4 59% 82% Median
5 22% 24%  
6 1.2% 1.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 6% 100%  
2 0.1% 94%  
3 44% 94%  
4 45% 50% Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Median
1 0% 46%  
2 0% 46%  
3 40% 46%  
4 6% 6% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 33 83% 31–35 31–36 30–36 29–37
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 30 12% 28–32 27–32 27–33 26–35
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 33 29 4% 27–31 26–31 26–32 24–33
Viðreisn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 28 28 1.1% 26–30 25–31 24–31 23–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 26 0.2% 25–28 24–29 23–30 22–31
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 25 0% 23–27 23–28 23–28 22–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 22 0% 21–24 20–25 20–26 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 22 0% 21–25 20–25 20–26 19–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 22 0% 19–24 19–24 19–25 18–26
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 26 21 0% 19–24 19–24 19–24 17–25
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 20 0% 18–22 18–23 17–23 16–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 18 0% 16–20 16–21 16–22 15–23
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 18 0% 16–20 16–20 16–21 15–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 17 0% 16–19 15–20 15–20 13–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 14 0% 13–16 12–16 12–17 11–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 13 0% 11–15 11–15 10–15 10–16
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 10 0% 9–12 8–12 8–13 7–13

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.8%  
30 4% 99.1%  
31 13% 95%  
32 18% 83% Majority
33 31% 65% Median
34 16% 34%  
35 11% 18% Last Result
36 5% 7%  
37 1.1% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.4%  
39 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.7%  
27 5% 98%  
28 14% 92%  
29 15% 79%  
30 34% 64%  
31 18% 30% Last Result, Median
32 8% 12% Majority
33 2% 4%  
34 0.9% 2%  
35 0.7% 0.7%  
36 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.7% 99.8%  
25 1.1% 99.1%  
26 5% 98%  
27 11% 93%  
28 27% 82%  
29 20% 55% Median
30 20% 35%  
31 11% 15%  
32 3% 4% Majority
33 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Viðreisn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.4% 99.8%  
24 1.2% 98%  
25 5% 97%  
26 18% 92%  
27 20% 74% Median
28 20% 54% Last Result
29 19% 34%  
30 9% 15%  
31 5% 6%  
32 0.8% 1.1% Majority
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.6% 100%  
23 2% 99.4%  
24 6% 97% Last Result
25 21% 91%  
26 21% 70%  
27 29% 49% Median
28 13% 20%  
29 4% 7%  
30 1.5% 3%  
31 1.4% 2%  
32 0.2% 0.2% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 1.1% 99.6%  
23 9% 98%  
24 17% 90%  
25 24% 73% Median
26 30% 49% Last Result
27 12% 19%  
28 5% 7%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.9%  
20 7% 98%  
21 17% 90%  
22 34% 73% Median
23 18% 39% Last Result
24 12% 21%  
25 6% 9%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 2% 100%  
20 6% 98% Last Result
21 15% 93%  
22 28% 78%  
23 22% 49% Median
24 15% 27%  
25 9% 12%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.8% 0.8%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.9% 100%  
19 10% 99.1%  
20 14% 89%  
21 23% 75% Median
22 21% 52%  
23 18% 30%  
24 8% 12%  
25 4% 4%  
26 0.7% 0.8%  
27 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.6% 99.8%  
18 1.4% 99.2%  
19 10% 98%  
20 8% 88%  
21 34% 79%  
22 24% 46% Median
23 11% 22%  
24 10% 11%  
25 1.4% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.9%  
17 2% 99.4%  
18 10% 97%  
19 23% 87% Median
20 28% 64%  
21 18% 36%  
22 11% 18%  
23 6% 7%  
24 0.8% 0.9% Last Result
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 1.4% 99.7%  
16 9% 98%  
17 13% 89%  
18 34% 76%  
19 20% 43% Median
20 15% 23%  
21 4% 8%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.8% 0.8% Last Result
24 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.6%  
16 12% 98%  
17 15% 86%  
18 41% 71% Median
19 17% 30% Last Result
20 9% 13%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0.8% 0.9%  
23 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.8%  
14 1.5% 99.5%  
15 6% 98%  
16 19% 92%  
17 27% 74% Median
18 25% 46%  
19 15% 22%  
20 5% 7%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 1.3% 99.9%  
12 6% 98.6%  
13 29% 92% Median
14 35% 64%  
15 17% 29%  
16 9% 12%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 2% 99.8%  
11 13% 97%  
12 32% 84% Median
13 24% 52%  
14 16% 28%  
15 10% 11%  
16 1.0% 1.1%  
17 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
18 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 2% 99.5%  
8 6% 98%  
9 28% 92%  
10 30% 64% Median
11 19% 34%  
12 12% 15%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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