Opinion Poll by MMR, 8–10 September 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
22.3% |
20.6–24.2% |
20.1–24.7% |
19.7–25.1% |
18.9–26.0% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
14.9% |
13.5–16.6% |
13.1–17.0% |
12.8–17.4% |
12.1–18.2% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
12.2% |
10.9–13.7% |
10.5–14.1% |
10.2–14.5% |
9.6–15.2% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
11.6% |
10.4–13.1% |
10.0–13.5% |
9.7–13.9% |
9.1–14.6% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.5% |
9.3–12.0% |
9.0–12.4% |
8.7–12.7% |
8.2–13.4% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
9.9% |
8.7–11.3% |
8.4–11.7% |
8.1–12.0% |
7.6–12.7% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
6.7% |
5.7–7.9% |
5.5–8.2% |
5.3–8.5% |
4.8–9.1% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
6.0% |
5.1–7.2% |
4.9–7.5% |
4.7–7.8% |
4.3–8.4% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.9% |
4.1–6.0% |
3.9–6.3% |
3.7–6.6% |
3.4–7.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
13 |
15% |
99.6% |
|
14 |
23% |
84% |
|
15 |
31% |
62% |
Median |
16 |
15% |
30% |
Last Result |
17 |
9% |
15% |
|
18 |
4% |
6% |
|
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
1.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
9 |
4% |
98.9% |
|
10 |
18% |
95% |
|
11 |
17% |
76% |
|
12 |
52% |
59% |
Median |
13 |
5% |
8% |
|
14 |
2% |
3% |
|
15 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
6 |
6% |
99.6% |
|
7 |
38% |
94% |
|
8 |
44% |
56% |
Median |
9 |
10% |
12% |
|
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
6 |
10% |
99.5% |
|
7 |
51% |
90% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
31% |
38% |
|
9 |
7% |
7% |
|
10 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
5 |
8% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
48% |
92% |
Median |
7 |
20% |
44% |
|
8 |
20% |
24% |
|
9 |
3% |
4% |
|
10 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
5 |
21% |
99.0% |
|
6 |
52% |
78% |
Last Result, Median |
7 |
20% |
26% |
|
8 |
6% |
6% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
98% |
|
2 |
0% |
98% |
|
3 |
16% |
98% |
|
4 |
59% |
82% |
Median |
5 |
22% |
24% |
|
6 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
6% |
100% |
|
2 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
3 |
44% |
94% |
|
4 |
45% |
50% |
Median |
5 |
5% |
5% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
54% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
46% |
|
2 |
0% |
46% |
|
3 |
40% |
46% |
|
4 |
6% |
6% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
35 |
33 |
83% |
31–35 |
31–36 |
30–36 |
29–37 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
30 |
12% |
28–32 |
27–32 |
27–33 |
26–35 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
29 |
4% |
27–31 |
26–31 |
26–32 |
24–33 |
Viðreisn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
28 |
28 |
1.1% |
26–30 |
25–31 |
24–31 |
23–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
26 |
0.2% |
25–28 |
24–29 |
23–30 |
22–31 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
25 |
0% |
23–27 |
23–28 |
23–28 |
22–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
22 |
0% |
21–24 |
20–25 |
20–26 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
22 |
0% |
21–25 |
20–25 |
20–26 |
19–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
22 |
0% |
19–24 |
19–24 |
19–25 |
18–26 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
21 |
0% |
19–24 |
19–24 |
19–24 |
17–25 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
20 |
0% |
18–22 |
18–23 |
17–23 |
16–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
18 |
0% |
16–20 |
16–21 |
16–22 |
15–23 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
19 |
18 |
0% |
16–20 |
16–20 |
16–21 |
15–22 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
17 |
0% |
16–19 |
15–20 |
15–20 |
13–21 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
14 |
0% |
13–16 |
12–16 |
12–17 |
11–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
13 |
0% |
11–15 |
11–15 |
10–15 |
10–16 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
10 |
0% |
9–12 |
8–12 |
8–13 |
7–13 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
4% |
99.1% |
|
31 |
13% |
95% |
|
32 |
18% |
83% |
Majority |
33 |
31% |
65% |
Median |
34 |
16% |
34% |
|
35 |
11% |
18% |
Last Result |
36 |
5% |
7% |
|
37 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
38 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
27 |
5% |
98% |
|
28 |
14% |
92% |
|
29 |
15% |
79% |
|
30 |
34% |
64% |
|
31 |
18% |
30% |
Last Result, Median |
32 |
8% |
12% |
Majority |
33 |
2% |
4% |
|
34 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
35 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
1.1% |
99.1% |
|
26 |
5% |
98% |
|
27 |
11% |
93% |
|
28 |
27% |
82% |
|
29 |
20% |
55% |
Median |
30 |
20% |
35% |
|
31 |
11% |
15% |
|
32 |
3% |
4% |
Majority |
33 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
23 |
1.4% |
99.8% |
|
24 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
25 |
5% |
97% |
|
26 |
18% |
92% |
|
27 |
20% |
74% |
Median |
28 |
20% |
54% |
Last Result |
29 |
19% |
34% |
|
30 |
9% |
15% |
|
31 |
5% |
6% |
|
32 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
Majority |
33 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
23 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
24 |
6% |
97% |
Last Result |
25 |
21% |
91% |
|
26 |
21% |
70% |
|
27 |
29% |
49% |
Median |
28 |
13% |
20% |
|
29 |
4% |
7% |
|
30 |
1.5% |
3% |
|
31 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
1.1% |
99.6% |
|
23 |
9% |
98% |
|
24 |
17% |
90% |
|
25 |
24% |
73% |
Median |
26 |
30% |
49% |
Last Result |
27 |
12% |
19% |
|
28 |
5% |
7% |
|
29 |
2% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
7% |
98% |
|
21 |
17% |
90% |
|
22 |
34% |
73% |
Median |
23 |
18% |
39% |
Last Result |
24 |
12% |
21% |
|
25 |
6% |
9% |
|
26 |
3% |
3% |
|
27 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
2% |
100% |
|
20 |
6% |
98% |
Last Result |
21 |
15% |
93% |
|
22 |
28% |
78% |
|
23 |
22% |
49% |
Median |
24 |
15% |
27% |
|
25 |
9% |
12% |
|
26 |
2% |
3% |
|
27 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
19 |
10% |
99.1% |
|
20 |
14% |
89% |
|
21 |
23% |
75% |
Median |
22 |
21% |
52% |
|
23 |
18% |
30% |
|
24 |
8% |
12% |
|
25 |
4% |
4% |
|
26 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
18 |
1.4% |
99.2% |
|
19 |
10% |
98% |
|
20 |
8% |
88% |
|
21 |
34% |
79% |
|
22 |
24% |
46% |
Median |
23 |
11% |
22% |
|
24 |
10% |
11% |
|
25 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
26 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
18 |
10% |
97% |
|
19 |
23% |
87% |
Median |
20 |
28% |
64% |
|
21 |
18% |
36% |
|
22 |
11% |
18% |
|
23 |
6% |
7% |
|
24 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
15 |
1.4% |
99.7% |
|
16 |
9% |
98% |
|
17 |
13% |
89% |
|
18 |
34% |
76% |
|
19 |
20% |
43% |
Median |
20 |
15% |
23% |
|
21 |
4% |
8% |
|
22 |
3% |
3% |
|
23 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
16 |
12% |
98% |
|
17 |
15% |
86% |
|
18 |
41% |
71% |
Median |
19 |
17% |
30% |
Last Result |
20 |
9% |
13% |
|
21 |
4% |
4% |
|
22 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
14 |
1.5% |
99.5% |
|
15 |
6% |
98% |
|
16 |
19% |
92% |
|
17 |
27% |
74% |
Median |
18 |
25% |
46% |
|
19 |
15% |
22% |
|
20 |
5% |
7% |
|
21 |
2% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
11 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
12 |
6% |
98.6% |
|
13 |
29% |
92% |
Median |
14 |
35% |
64% |
|
15 |
17% |
29% |
|
16 |
9% |
12% |
|
17 |
3% |
3% |
|
18 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
10 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
11 |
13% |
97% |
|
12 |
32% |
84% |
Median |
13 |
24% |
52% |
|
14 |
16% |
28% |
|
15 |
10% |
11% |
|
16 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
7 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
8 |
6% |
98% |
|
9 |
28% |
92% |
|
10 |
30% |
64% |
Median |
11 |
19% |
34% |
|
12 |
12% |
15% |
|
13 |
3% |
3% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 8–10 September 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 910
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.75%