Opinion Poll by Gallup, 30 August–12 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.0% 21.0–23.0% 20.8–23.3% 20.5–23.5% 20.1–24.0%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 12.9% 12.1–13.7% 11.9–13.9% 11.7–14.1% 11.4–14.5%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.8% 11.1–12.6% 10.9–12.8% 10.7–13.0% 10.3–13.4%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 11.0% 10.3–11.8% 10.1–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6%
Píratar 9.2% 11.0% 10.3–11.8% 10.1–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.9% 9.2–10.6% 9.1–10.9% 8.9–11.0% 8.6–11.4%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 7.8% 7.2–8.5% 7.0–8.6% 6.9–8.8% 6.6–9.1%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 7.6% 7.0–8.2% 6.8–8.4% 6.7–8.6% 6.4–8.9%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.9% 4.4–5.5% 4.3–5.6% 4.2–5.7% 4.0–6.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 13–16 13–16 13–16 13–17
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 9 8–10 8–10 8–11 8–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–9
Samfylkingin 7 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Píratar 6 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Viðreisn 4 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–7
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Miðflokkurinn 7 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 12% 100%  
14 35% 88%  
15 36% 53% Median
16 15% 17% Last Result
17 2% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 34% 100% Last Result
9 52% 66% Median
10 11% 13%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.0% 100%  
7 16% 99.0%  
8 57% 83% Median
9 26% 26%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 11% 100%  
7 75% 89% Last Result, Median
8 14% 14%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 14% 99.8% Last Result
7 44% 86% Median
8 42% 43%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 1.4% 100%  
6 73% 98.6% Median
7 25% 25%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 14% 100%  
5 84% 86% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 29% 100%  
5 69% 71% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Median
1 0% 45%  
2 0% 45%  
3 45% 45%  
4 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 31 50% 30–33 30–33 30–33 29–34
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 33 29 0.1% 27–30 27–30 27–31 26–31
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn 28 29 0.2% 27–30 27–30 27–30 25–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 28 0.1% 26–30 26–30 26–30 26–31
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 26 24 0% 23–25 23–26 22–26 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 22–25 22–25 22–25 22–26
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin 24 22 0% 21–23 21–24 21–24 19–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 23 0% 21–24 21–24 21–24 20–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 22 0% 20–23 20–23 19–24 19–24
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–23 20–23 20–23 19–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 21 0% 19–22 19–23 19–23 19–23
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn 25 20 0% 19–21 18–21 18–22 17–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 19 0% 18–21 18–21 17–21 17–22
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 17 0% 16–18 16–18 15–19 15–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin 18 15 0% 14–16 14–16 13–17 13–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 15 0% 14–16 14–16 14–16 13–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 13 0% 12–14 12–14 11–14 11–14

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 2% 100%  
30 14% 98%  
31 34% 84%  
32 35% 50% Median, Majority
33 13% 15%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.9% 99.8%  
27 12% 98.8%  
28 35% 87%  
29 30% 52% Median
30 17% 22%  
31 5% 5%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.8% 100%  
26 1.3% 99.2%  
27 10% 98%  
28 30% 88% Last Result, Median
29 40% 58%  
30 16% 18%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.2% 0.2% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 11% 100%  
27 21% 89%  
28 27% 68%  
29 29% 41% Median
30 11% 13%  
31 2% 2% Last Result
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.6% 99.8%  
22 4% 99.2%  
23 30% 96%  
24 40% 65% Median
25 19% 25%  
26 6% 7% Last Result
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 22% 99.9%  
23 31% 78%  
24 32% 46% Last Result, Median
25 12% 14%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.8% 100%  
20 1.3% 99.2%  
21 11% 98%  
22 38% 87% Median
23 42% 49%  
24 6% 7% Last Result
25 0.4% 0.4%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 2% 99.8%  
21 12% 98%  
22 25% 86%  
23 41% 61% Median
24 17% 20%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 3% 100%  
20 13% 97%  
21 28% 83%  
22 34% 56% Median
23 18% 22% Last Result
24 4% 4%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.6% 99.9%  
20 11% 99.4%  
21 37% 88%  
22 31% 52% Median
23 19% 21%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 13% 99.7%  
20 25% 87% Last Result
21 35% 62% Median
22 21% 27%  
23 6% 6%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.9% 99.9%  
18 5% 99.0%  
19 28% 94%  
20 45% 66% Median
21 17% 21%  
22 4% 4%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 3% 100%  
18 24% 97%  
19 28% 72%  
20 28% 44% Median
21 14% 16%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
24 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 4% 99.7%  
16 28% 95%  
17 44% 68% Median
18 20% 23%  
19 3% 3% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 2% 99.7%  
14 19% 97%  
15 47% 78% Median
16 27% 31%  
17 4% 4%  
18 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.1% 99.8%  
14 10% 98.7%  
15 40% 88% Median
16 47% 48%  
17 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
18 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 2% 99.6%  
12 31% 97%  
13 50% 67% Median
14 16% 17%  
15 0.3% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations