Opinion Poll by Maskína for Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir, 8–13 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 21.0% 20.1–21.9% 19.8–22.2% 19.6–22.5% 19.2–22.9%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.6% 13.8–15.4% 13.6–15.7% 13.4–15.9% 13.0–16.3%
Píratar 9.2% 13.3% 12.5–14.1% 12.3–14.3% 12.1–14.5% 11.8–14.9%
Viðreisn 6.7% 12.3% 11.6–13.1% 11.4–13.3% 11.2–13.5% 10.9–13.9%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.6%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.5% 10.8–12.3% 10.6–12.5% 10.4–12.7% 10.1–13.0%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 6.1% 5.6–6.7% 5.4–6.9% 5.3–7.0% 5.1–7.3%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 5.5% 5.0–6.1% 4.9–6.2% 4.8–6.4% 4.5–6.6%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 3.6% 3.2–4.1% 3.1–4.2% 3.0–4.3% 2.8–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 14 13–15 13–15 13–15 13–16
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–11
Píratar 6 9 8–9 8–9 8–9 8–10
Viðreisn 4 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 7–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–9
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Miðflokkurinn 7 3 1–4 1–4 1–4 1–4
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0 0 0 0

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 25% 99.9%  
14 33% 75% Median
15 42% 43%  
16 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 1.0% 100%  
9 48% 99.0%  
10 49% 51% Median
11 2% 2%  
12 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.3% 100%  
8 45% 99.7%  
9 53% 55% Median
10 1.5% 1.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 14% 100%  
8 70% 86% Median
9 16% 16%  
10 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.8% 100%  
8 33% 99.2% Last Result
9 42% 66% Median
10 24% 24%  
11 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100%  
7 61% 97% Median
8 36% 37%  
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 36% 99.7%  
4 63% 63% Median
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 19% 100%  
2 0.3% 81%  
3 58% 81% Median
4 23% 23%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 28 33 99.8% 33–34 32–35 32–35 32–35
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 30 13% 29–32 29–32 29–32 28–33
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 33 29 0.2% 27–30 27–30 27–30 27–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 26 0% 25–27 25–27 25–27 24–28
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 26 0% 24–27 24–27 24–27 24–28
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 25 0% 25–26 24–27 24–27 24–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 22–24 22–24 22–25 21–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 24 0% 22–25 22–25 22–25 22–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 22 0% 21–23 21–23 20–24 20–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 22 0% 20–23 20–23 20–23 20–23
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 26 19 0% 18–20 18–21 18–21 17–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 20 0% 18–21 17–21 17–21 17–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 17 0% 16–18 15–19 15–19 15–19
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 17 0% 16–18 16–18 16–18 15–19
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 16 0% 15–17 15–18 15–18 14–18
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 16 0% 15–17 15–17 15–17 15–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 10 0% 9–11 8–12 8–12 8–12

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Viðreisn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100% Last Result
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 100%  
32 7% 99.8% Majority
33 49% 93%  
34 37% 44% Median
35 7% 7%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.5% 100%  
29 18% 99.5%  
30 36% 82% Median
31 32% 45%  
32 11% 13% Majority
33 2% 2%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.4% 100%  
27 14% 99.6%  
28 33% 86%  
29 32% 53% Median
30 19% 21%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.2% 0.2% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.0% 99.9%  
25 28% 98.9%  
26 50% 71% Median
27 20% 21%  
28 1.2% 1.2%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 11% 99.7%  
25 23% 89%  
26 45% 65% Last Result, Median
27 18% 20%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 8% 99.8% Last Result
25 47% 92%  
26 39% 44% Median
27 5% 6%  
28 0.4% 0.4%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.8% 99.9%  
22 28% 99.2%  
23 39% 72% Median
24 29% 33% Last Result
25 4% 4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 13% 99.7%  
23 29% 87% Last Result
24 34% 58% Median
25 24% 25%  
26 0.5% 0.6%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 4% 100% Last Result
21 26% 96%  
22 20% 70% Median
23 45% 50%  
24 4% 4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 15% 99.8%  
21 34% 85% Median
22 33% 50%  
23 17% 18%  
24 0.4% 0.4%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 2% 100%  
18 31% 98%  
19 33% 67% Median
20 25% 34%  
21 9% 9%  
22 0.5% 0.5%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 6% 100%  
18 7% 94%  
19 17% 87%  
20 49% 70% Median
21 20% 21%  
22 1.1% 1.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 8% 99.7%  
16 22% 92%  
17 33% 70% Median
18 31% 36%  
19 5% 5%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 1.1% 100%  
16 26% 98.9%  
17 58% 73% Median
18 14% 15% Last Result
19 0.7% 0.7%  
20 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.8% 100%  
15 23% 99.2%  
16 34% 76% Median
17 35% 42%  
18 6% 7%  
19 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 29% 99.7%  
16 52% 71% Median
17 18% 19% Last Result
18 0.8% 0.8%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 9% 100%  
9 12% 91%  
10 38% 79% Median
11 33% 41%  
12 8% 8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations