Opinion Poll by Prósent for Fréttablaðið, 13–16 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 21.3% 20.0–22.7% 19.6–23.1% 19.3–23.4% 18.7–24.1%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.2% 13.1–15.4% 12.8–15.8% 12.5–16.1% 12.0–16.7%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 12.6% 11.6–13.8% 11.2–14.1% 11.0–14.4% 10.5–15.0%
Viðreisn 6.7% 11.6% 10.6–12.7% 10.3–13.0% 10.1–13.3% 9.6–13.9%
Píratar 9.2% 11.5% 10.5–12.7% 10.2–13.0% 10.0–13.2% 9.5–13.8%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.0% 9.0–11.1% 8.8–11.3% 8.6–11.6% 8.1–12.1%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 7.7% 6.9–8.7% 6.6–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.1–9.6%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 5.9% 5.2–6.8% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.2% 4.5–7.6%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 4.7% 4.1–5.5% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.4–6.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 14 13–15 13–16 13–16 12–17
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–11 8–11 8–11 8–11
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 10 8–10 8–10 8–10 8–12
Viðreisn 4 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 6–9
Píratar 6 7 7–8 6–8 6–8 6–9
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–7 6–8 5–8 5–8
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 3–4 3–4 1–5 1–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 41% 98%  
14 42% 58% Median
15 10% 16%  
16 5% 6% Last Result
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100% Last Result
8 6% 99.5%  
9 36% 94%  
10 44% 57% Median
11 12% 13%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.4% 100%  
8 17% 99.6% Last Result
9 31% 82%  
10 49% 51% Median
11 2% 2%  
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.1% 100%  
6 11% 99.9%  
7 59% 88% Median
8 27% 30%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 9% 99.8% Last Result
7 63% 91% Median
8 26% 27%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 4% 100%  
6 37% 96%  
7 52% 59% Median
8 7% 7%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 20% 99.7%  
5 63% 79% Median
6 16% 16%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 0.2% 97%  
3 35% 96%  
4 59% 61% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Median
1 0% 22%  
2 0% 22%  
3 21% 22%  
4 1.0% 1.0% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 28 31 25% 29–32 28–32 28–33 27–34
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 30 4% 29–31 28–31 28–32 27–33
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 33 30 0.4% 27–30 26–31 26–31 25–31
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 27 0% 26–28 25–28 25–29 24–29
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 26 0% 24–27 23–27 23–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 23 0% 22–25 22–25 22–26 21–26
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 24 0% 22–25 21–25 21–26 20–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 22–24 22–25 21–25 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 21 0% 20–22 19–24 19–24 19–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 20 0% 19–22 19–22 19–22 18–23
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 26 20 0% 18–21 17–21 17–21 16–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 20 0% 18–21 17–21 17–21 15–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 17 0% 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 16 0% 15–17 14–17 14–18 13–18
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 15–17 14–18 14–18 13–18
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 14 0% 13–15 12–15 12–16 12–16
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 10 0% 9–11 9–11 8–12 7–12

Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.9% 99.9%  
28 4% 99.0% Last Result
29 13% 95%  
30 23% 82%  
31 34% 59% Median
32 20% 25% Majority
33 4% 5%  
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 1.1% 99.9%  
28 8% 98.8%  
29 31% 90%  
30 36% 60%  
31 20% 23% Median
32 3% 4% Majority
33 0.6% 0.7%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100%  
25 1.4% 99.6%  
26 5% 98%  
27 4% 93%  
28 11% 89%  
29 25% 78%  
30 45% 53%  
31 8% 8% Median
32 0.4% 0.4% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 2% 99.9%  
25 8% 98%  
26 30% 90%  
27 41% 60%  
28 16% 19% Median
29 3% 3%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
32 0% 0% Majority

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.5% 100%  
22 1.3% 99.4%  
23 5% 98%  
24 9% 93%  
25 19% 84%  
26 43% 64% Last Result
27 19% 21% Median
28 2% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 2% 99.9%  
22 19% 98%  
23 33% 79% Last Result
24 31% 46% Median
25 11% 15%  
26 4% 4%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.6% 99.9%  
21 5% 99.3%  
22 13% 95%  
23 31% 81%  
24 35% 51% Last Result, Median
25 13% 16%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 3% 99.8%  
22 21% 97%  
23 44% 76%  
24 25% 32% Last Result, Median
25 6% 7%  
26 1.3% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 6% 100%  
20 29% 94% Last Result
21 42% 65% Median
22 14% 23%  
23 4% 9%  
24 4% 5%  
25 0.8% 1.0%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 2% 99.9%  
19 19% 98%  
20 30% 79%  
21 36% 49% Median
22 11% 13%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.7% 99.9%  
17 4% 99.2%  
18 13% 95%  
19 20% 82%  
20 44% 61%  
21 16% 17% Median
22 1.2% 1.3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.7% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.2%  
17 3% 98%  
18 9% 94%  
19 17% 85%  
20 32% 68%  
21 34% 36% Median
22 2% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 2% 99.5%  
16 17% 98%  
17 36% 81%  
18 35% 45% Median
19 8% 10%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 1.1% 100%  
14 8% 98.9%  
15 15% 91%  
16 46% 76%  
17 28% 30% Median
18 2% 3%  
19 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.4% 99.8%  
14 5% 98%  
15 17% 94%  
16 30% 77%  
17 37% 47% Median
18 9% 10% Last Result
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 6% 99.5%  
13 26% 93%  
14 49% 67% Median
15 15% 18%  
16 3% 3%  
17 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
18 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 1.1% 99.7%  
8 3% 98.6%  
9 15% 96%  
10 40% 81%  
11 36% 40% Median
12 4% 4%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations