Opinion Poll by Prósent for Fréttablaðið, 13–16 September 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
21.3% |
20.0–22.7% |
19.6–23.1% |
19.3–23.4% |
18.7–24.1% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
14.2% |
13.1–15.4% |
12.8–15.8% |
12.5–16.1% |
12.0–16.7% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
12.6% |
11.6–13.8% |
11.2–14.1% |
11.0–14.4% |
10.5–15.0% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
11.6% |
10.6–12.7% |
10.3–13.0% |
10.1–13.3% |
9.6–13.9% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.5% |
10.5–12.7% |
10.2–13.0% |
10.0–13.2% |
9.5–13.8% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.0% |
9.0–11.1% |
8.8–11.3% |
8.6–11.6% |
8.1–12.1% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
7.7% |
6.9–8.7% |
6.6–8.9% |
6.4–9.2% |
6.1–9.6% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
5.9% |
5.2–6.8% |
5.0–7.0% |
4.8–7.2% |
4.5–7.6% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
4.7% |
4.1–5.5% |
3.9–5.7% |
3.7–5.9% |
3.4–6.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
2% |
100% |
|
13 |
41% |
98% |
|
14 |
42% |
58% |
Median |
15 |
10% |
16% |
|
16 |
5% |
6% |
Last Result |
17 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.5% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
6% |
99.5% |
|
9 |
36% |
94% |
|
10 |
44% |
57% |
Median |
11 |
12% |
13% |
|
12 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
8 |
17% |
99.6% |
Last Result |
9 |
31% |
82% |
|
10 |
49% |
51% |
Median |
11 |
2% |
2% |
|
12 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
11% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
59% |
88% |
Median |
8 |
27% |
30% |
|
9 |
3% |
3% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
6 |
9% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
7 |
63% |
91% |
Median |
8 |
26% |
27% |
|
9 |
2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
4% |
100% |
|
6 |
37% |
96% |
|
7 |
52% |
59% |
Median |
8 |
7% |
7% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
4 |
20% |
99.7% |
|
5 |
63% |
79% |
Median |
6 |
16% |
16% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
3% |
100% |
|
2 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
3 |
35% |
96% |
|
4 |
59% |
61% |
Median |
5 |
3% |
3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
78% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
22% |
|
2 |
0% |
22% |
|
3 |
21% |
22% |
|
4 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
28 |
31 |
25% |
29–32 |
28–32 |
28–33 |
27–34 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
35 |
30 |
4% |
29–31 |
28–31 |
28–32 |
27–33 |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
30 |
0.4% |
27–30 |
26–31 |
26–31 |
25–31 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
27 |
0% |
26–28 |
25–28 |
25–29 |
24–29 |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
26 |
0% |
24–27 |
23–27 |
23–27 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
22–25 |
22–26 |
21–26 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
24 |
0% |
22–25 |
21–25 |
21–26 |
20–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
22–25 |
21–25 |
21–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
19–24 |
19–24 |
19–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–22 |
19–22 |
18–23 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
20 |
0% |
18–21 |
17–21 |
17–21 |
16–22 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
20 |
0% |
18–21 |
17–21 |
17–21 |
15–22 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
17 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–19 |
16–19 |
15–20 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
19 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
14–17 |
14–18 |
13–18 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
13–18 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
14 |
0% |
13–15 |
12–15 |
12–16 |
12–16 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
10 |
0% |
9–11 |
9–11 |
8–12 |
7–12 |
Samfylkingin – Viðreisn – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
4% |
99.0% |
Last Result |
29 |
13% |
95% |
|
30 |
23% |
82% |
|
31 |
34% |
59% |
Median |
32 |
20% |
25% |
Majority |
33 |
4% |
5% |
|
34 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
8% |
98.8% |
|
29 |
31% |
90% |
|
30 |
36% |
60% |
|
31 |
20% |
23% |
Median |
32 |
3% |
4% |
Majority |
33 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
25 |
1.4% |
99.6% |
|
26 |
5% |
98% |
|
27 |
4% |
93% |
|
28 |
11% |
89% |
|
29 |
25% |
78% |
|
30 |
45% |
53% |
|
31 |
8% |
8% |
Median |
32 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
8% |
98% |
|
26 |
30% |
90% |
|
27 |
41% |
60% |
|
28 |
16% |
19% |
Median |
29 |
3% |
3% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
22 |
1.3% |
99.4% |
|
23 |
5% |
98% |
|
24 |
9% |
93% |
|
25 |
19% |
84% |
|
26 |
43% |
64% |
Last Result |
27 |
19% |
21% |
Median |
28 |
2% |
2% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
19% |
98% |
|
23 |
33% |
79% |
Last Result |
24 |
31% |
46% |
Median |
25 |
11% |
15% |
|
26 |
4% |
4% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
5% |
99.3% |
|
22 |
13% |
95% |
|
23 |
31% |
81% |
|
24 |
35% |
51% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
13% |
16% |
|
26 |
3% |
3% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
21% |
97% |
|
23 |
44% |
76% |
|
24 |
25% |
32% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
6% |
7% |
|
26 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
27 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
28 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
6% |
100% |
|
20 |
29% |
94% |
Last Result |
21 |
42% |
65% |
Median |
22 |
14% |
23% |
|
23 |
4% |
9% |
|
24 |
4% |
5% |
|
25 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
26 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
19% |
98% |
|
20 |
30% |
79% |
|
21 |
36% |
49% |
Median |
22 |
11% |
13% |
|
23 |
2% |
2% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
18 |
13% |
95% |
|
19 |
20% |
82% |
|
20 |
44% |
61% |
|
21 |
16% |
17% |
Median |
22 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
17 |
3% |
98% |
|
18 |
9% |
94% |
|
19 |
17% |
85% |
|
20 |
32% |
68% |
|
21 |
34% |
36% |
Median |
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
16 |
17% |
98% |
|
17 |
36% |
81% |
|
18 |
35% |
45% |
Median |
19 |
8% |
10% |
|
20 |
2% |
2% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
8% |
98.9% |
|
15 |
15% |
91% |
|
16 |
46% |
76% |
|
17 |
28% |
30% |
Median |
18 |
2% |
3% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
1.4% |
99.8% |
|
14 |
5% |
98% |
|
15 |
17% |
94% |
|
16 |
30% |
77% |
|
17 |
37% |
47% |
Median |
18 |
9% |
10% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
12 |
6% |
99.5% |
|
13 |
26% |
93% |
|
14 |
49% |
67% |
Median |
15 |
15% |
18% |
|
16 |
3% |
3% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
7 |
1.1% |
99.7% |
|
8 |
3% |
98.6% |
|
9 |
15% |
96% |
|
10 |
40% |
81% |
|
11 |
36% |
40% |
Median |
12 |
4% |
4% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Prósent
- Commissioner(s): Fréttablaðið
- Fieldwork period: 13–16 September 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1493
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.07%