Opinion Poll by MMR for Morgunblaðið, 15–17 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 20.3% 18.9–21.8% 18.5–22.2% 18.2–22.6% 17.5–23.3%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 13.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.5–14.6% 11.2–14.9% 10.7–15.6%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 12.7% 11.6–14.0% 11.3–14.4% 11.0–14.7% 10.5–15.3%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.1% 11.0–13.4% 10.7–13.7% 10.4–14.0% 9.9–14.6%
Píratar 9.2% 11.8% 10.7–13.0% 10.4–13.4% 10.1–13.7% 9.6–14.3%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.7% 9.6–11.9% 9.3–12.2% 9.1–12.5% 8.6–13.1%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 8.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.0% 7.2–10.3% 6.7–10.8%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.6% 4.8–6.5% 4.6–6.8% 4.4–7.0% 4.1–7.4%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 4.6% 3.9–5.5% 3.7–5.7% 3.6–5.9% 3.3–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 13 13–15 12–15 12–15 11–16
Samfylkingin 7 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 7–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 9 8–10 8–10 8–11 7–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–10
Píratar 6 7 7–8 6–9 6–9 6–9
Viðreisn 4 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–8
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Miðflokkurinn 7 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.7% 100%  
12 5% 99.3%  
13 49% 94% Median
14 33% 45%  
15 10% 12%  
16 2% 2% Last Result
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 13% 99.7% Last Result
8 51% 87% Median
9 31% 36%  
10 5% 5%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 10% 98% Last Result
9 38% 88% Median
10 47% 50%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 5% 100%  
7 26% 95%  
8 45% 70% Median
9 19% 24%  
10 6% 6%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 6% 99.9% Last Result
7 45% 94% Median
8 42% 49%  
9 6% 6%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 2% 100%  
6 44% 98%  
7 42% 55% Median
8 13% 13%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 10% 100%  
5 52% 90% Median
6 35% 38%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100%  
1 0% 86%  
2 0% 86%  
3 44% 86% Median
4 42% 42% Last Result
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 63% 87% Median
2 0.3% 24%  
3 22% 24%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 31 30% 29–32 29–33 29–33 27–34
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 30 21% 29–32 29–33 28–33 27–34
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 33 27 0.1% 25–29 25–29 25–30 24–31
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 26 0% 24–27 24–28 23–28 23–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 24 0% 23–26 22–26 22–27 21–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 24 0% 22–25 22–26 22–26 21–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 22–24 21–25 21–25 20–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 22 0% 20–23 20–24 20–24 19–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 22 0% 20–23 20–23 19–24 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 20 0% 19–22 19–22 18–22 18–23
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 26 19 0% 17–21 17–21 16–21 15–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 17 0% 16–19 16–20 16–20 15–22
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 17 0% 16–19 16–19 15–20 14–20
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 15–18 15–18 14–18 14–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 15 0% 14–17 14–17 13–18 13–18
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 15 0% 13–16 13–17 13–17 12–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 9 0% 8–11 8–11 7–12 7–13

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.8% 100%  
28 2% 99.1%  
29 9% 98%  
30 27% 88% Median
31 32% 62%  
32 21% 30% Majority
33 7% 8%  
34 1.2% 1.4%  
35 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 0.6% 99.7%  
28 3% 99.1% Last Result
29 28% 96%  
30 24% 69% Median
31 24% 45%  
32 13% 21% Majority
33 6% 8%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 2% 99.9%  
25 10% 98%  
26 28% 89% Median
27 28% 61%  
28 19% 33%  
29 11% 14%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.6% 0.7%  
32 0.1% 0.1% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 3% 99.8%  
24 13% 96%  
25 29% 83% Median
26 34% 54% Last Result
27 12% 20%  
28 6% 7%  
29 0.9% 1.0%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.8% 99.8%  
22 8% 99.0%  
23 21% 91% Median
24 26% 70%  
25 26% 45%  
26 14% 19%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.5% 0.7%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 1.3% 99.7%  
22 9% 98%  
23 39% 89% Median
24 26% 50% Last Result
25 15% 24%  
26 7% 9%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.5% 100%  
20 1.5% 99.5%  
21 5% 98%  
22 28% 93% Median
23 35% 65%  
24 25% 30% Last Result
25 4% 5%  
26 1.3% 1.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.1% 99.9%  
20 9% 98.8%  
21 31% 90% Median
22 36% 59%  
23 13% 23% Last Result
24 9% 10%  
25 0.8% 1.1%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.5% 100%  
19 3% 99.5%  
20 14% 97%  
21 32% 82% Median
22 35% 50%  
23 11% 15%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0.4% 0.5%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 3% 99.8%  
19 22% 97%  
20 41% 75% Last Result, Median
21 24% 34%  
22 8% 10%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.5% 100%  
16 2% 99.4%  
17 19% 97%  
18 19% 78% Median
19 34% 59%  
20 15% 25%  
21 8% 10%  
22 1.2% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 16% 98%  
17 34% 82% Median
18 28% 49%  
19 13% 21%  
20 6% 8%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.6% 0.6%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.7% 100%  
15 4% 99.3%  
16 19% 95%  
17 28% 76% Median
18 38% 48%  
19 7% 11% Last Result
20 4% 4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 3% 99.6%  
15 23% 97%  
16 36% 74% Median
17 26% 38%  
18 10% 12% Last Result
19 2% 2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 3% 99.8%  
14 14% 97%  
15 36% 83% Median
16 32% 47%  
17 12% 15% Last Result
18 3% 3%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.7% 100%  
13 10% 99.2%  
14 29% 89% Median
15 29% 60%  
16 24% 31%  
17 6% 8%  
18 1.3% 2%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 3% 100%  
8 24% 97%  
9 33% 73% Median
10 24% 40%  
11 11% 16%  
12 3% 5%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations