Opinion Poll by Gallup for RÚV, 13–19 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 21.2% 20.4–22.1% 20.1–22.3% 19.9–22.5% 19.6–22.9%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 13.2% 12.5–13.9% 12.3–14.1% 12.2–14.3% 11.9–14.7%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 12.7% 12.0–13.4% 11.8–13.6% 11.7–13.8% 11.4–14.1%
Píratar 9.2% 11.5% 10.9–12.2% 10.7–12.4% 10.5–12.5% 10.2–12.9%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.2% 9.6–10.9% 9.4–11.0% 9.3–11.2% 9.0–11.5%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.2% 9.6–10.9% 9.4–11.0% 9.3–11.2% 9.0–11.5%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 7.3% 6.8–7.9% 6.6–8.0% 6.5–8.2% 6.3–8.4%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 7.0% 6.5–7.6% 6.4–7.7% 6.2–7.8% 6.0–8.1%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 6.2% 5.7–6.7% 5.6–6.9% 5.5–7.0% 5.3–7.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 14 13–14 13–14 13–15 13–15
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 9 9–10 9–10 8–11 8–11
Samfylkingin 7 8 8 7–9 7–9 7–9
Píratar 6 7 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–8
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–7
Viðreisn 4 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–7
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 30% 100%  
14 66% 70% Median
15 4% 4%  
16 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
17 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 4% 100% Last Result
9 66% 96% Median
10 26% 30%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 8% 100% Last Result
8 86% 92% Median
9 6% 7%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100% Last Result
7 73% 97% Median
8 24% 24%  
9 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 62% 99.5% Median
7 37% 37%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.6% 100%  
6 73% 99.4% Median
7 27% 27%  
8 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 74% 99.9% Median
5 26% 26%  
6 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.8% 100%  
4 82% 99.2% Last Result, Median
5 17% 17%  
6 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 32% 100%  
4 68% 68% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 29 0.2% 28–31 28–31 28–31 28–31
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 28 0% 27–29 27–29 27–29 26–30
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 33 27 0% 26–28 26–29 26–29 25–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 27 0% 26–28 26–28 25–28 25–29
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 24 0% 23–25 22–25 22–25 22–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 22–24 22–24 22–25 22–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 22 0% 21–22 21–23 21–23 20–23
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 22 0% 21–22 21–23 20–23 20–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 20 0% 19–21 19–21 19–21 19–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 20 0% 19–21 19–21 19–21 19–22
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 26 19 0% 19–20 18–20 18–21 17–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 18 0% 17–19 17–19 17–19 16–20
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 17 0% 17–18 16–18 16–18 16–19
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 16 0% 15–17 15–17 14–17 14–18
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 14 0% 13–14 13–14 13–15 12–15
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 14 0% 14–15 14–15 13–15 13–16
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 10 0% 9–11 9–11 9–11 9–11

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 12% 100%  
29 47% 88% Median
30 28% 41%  
31 13% 13%  
32 0.2% 0.2% Majority
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 1.5% 99.9%  
27 28% 98% Median
28 57% 71% Last Result
29 13% 14%  
30 1.1% 1.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 1.4% 100%  
26 10% 98.6%  
27 45% 89% Median
28 38% 43%  
29 5% 6%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 3% 100%  
26 31% 97%  
27 55% 66% Median
28 10% 11%  
29 0.8% 0.8%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 5% 99.9%  
23 39% 95% Median
24 39% 55%  
25 16% 17%  
26 0.9% 0.9% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 23% 100%  
23 53% 77% Median
24 21% 24% Last Result
25 4% 4%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 1.3% 100%  
21 30% 98.7%  
22 64% 69% Median
23 5% 5% Last Result
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 3% 99.9%  
21 43% 97% Median
22 48% 54%  
23 6% 6%  
24 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 16% 99.9%  
20 59% 84% Median
21 25% 26%  
22 1.0% 1.0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 21% 99.8%  
20 59% 79% Last Result, Median
21 18% 20%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 1.3% 100%  
18 7% 98.7%  
19 49% 91% Median
20 37% 42%  
21 5% 5%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 1.1% 100%  
17 19% 98.9%  
18 55% 80% Median
19 24% 25%  
20 1.2% 1.2%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 7% 100%  
17 46% 93%  
18 45% 47% Median
19 2% 2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 3% 100%  
15 43% 97% Median
16 37% 54%  
17 16% 17%  
18 0.7% 0.7%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 1.1% 100%  
13 44% 98.9% Median
14 50% 55%  
15 5% 5%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 5% 100%  
14 56% 95% Median
15 38% 39%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 16% 99.8%  
10 61% 83% Median
11 22% 22%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations