Opinion Poll by Gallup for RÚV, 13–19 September 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
21.2% |
20.4–22.1% |
20.1–22.3% |
19.9–22.5% |
19.6–22.9% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
13.2% |
12.5–13.9% |
12.3–14.1% |
12.2–14.3% |
11.9–14.7% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
12.7% |
12.0–13.4% |
11.8–13.6% |
11.7–13.8% |
11.4–14.1% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.5% |
10.9–12.2% |
10.7–12.4% |
10.5–12.5% |
10.2–12.9% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.2% |
9.6–10.9% |
9.4–11.0% |
9.3–11.2% |
9.0–11.5% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.2% |
9.6–10.9% |
9.4–11.0% |
9.3–11.2% |
9.0–11.5% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
7.3% |
6.8–7.9% |
6.6–8.0% |
6.5–8.2% |
6.3–8.4% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
7.0% |
6.5–7.6% |
6.4–7.7% |
6.2–7.8% |
6.0–8.1% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
6.2% |
5.7–6.7% |
5.6–6.9% |
5.5–7.0% |
5.3–7.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
30% |
100% |
|
14 |
66% |
70% |
Median |
15 |
4% |
4% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
4% |
100% |
Last Result |
9 |
66% |
96% |
Median |
10 |
26% |
30% |
|
11 |
4% |
5% |
|
12 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
8% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
86% |
92% |
Median |
9 |
6% |
7% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
3% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
73% |
97% |
Median |
8 |
24% |
24% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
6 |
62% |
99.5% |
Median |
7 |
37% |
37% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
6 |
73% |
99.4% |
Median |
7 |
27% |
27% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
74% |
99.9% |
Median |
5 |
26% |
26% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
4 |
82% |
99.2% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
17% |
17% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
32% |
100% |
|
4 |
68% |
68% |
Median |
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
35 |
29 |
0.2% |
28–31 |
28–31 |
28–31 |
28–31 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
28 |
0% |
27–29 |
27–29 |
27–29 |
26–30 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
27 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–29 |
26–29 |
25–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
27 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–28 |
25–28 |
25–29 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
22–25 |
22–25 |
22–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
22–24 |
22–25 |
22–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
22 |
0% |
21–22 |
21–23 |
21–23 |
20–23 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
22 |
0% |
21–22 |
21–23 |
20–23 |
20–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
19–21 |
19–21 |
19–22 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
19–21 |
19–21 |
19–22 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
19 |
0% |
19–20 |
18–20 |
18–21 |
17–21 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
18 |
0% |
17–19 |
17–19 |
17–19 |
16–20 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
17 |
0% |
17–18 |
16–18 |
16–18 |
16–19 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
19 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
15–17 |
14–17 |
14–18 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
14 |
0% |
13–14 |
13–14 |
13–15 |
12–15 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
14 |
0% |
14–15 |
14–15 |
13–15 |
13–16 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
10 |
0% |
9–11 |
9–11 |
9–11 |
9–11 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
12% |
100% |
|
29 |
47% |
88% |
Median |
30 |
28% |
41% |
|
31 |
13% |
13% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
1.5% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
28% |
98% |
Median |
28 |
57% |
71% |
Last Result |
29 |
13% |
14% |
|
30 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
26 |
10% |
98.6% |
|
27 |
45% |
89% |
Median |
28 |
38% |
43% |
|
29 |
5% |
6% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
3% |
100% |
|
26 |
31% |
97% |
|
27 |
55% |
66% |
Median |
28 |
10% |
11% |
|
29 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
39% |
95% |
Median |
24 |
39% |
55% |
|
25 |
16% |
17% |
|
26 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
23% |
100% |
|
23 |
53% |
77% |
Median |
24 |
21% |
24% |
Last Result |
25 |
4% |
4% |
|
26 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
21 |
30% |
98.7% |
|
22 |
64% |
69% |
Median |
23 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
24 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
43% |
97% |
Median |
22 |
48% |
54% |
|
23 |
6% |
6% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
16% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
59% |
84% |
Median |
21 |
25% |
26% |
|
22 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
21% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
59% |
79% |
Last Result, Median |
21 |
18% |
20% |
|
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
18 |
7% |
98.7% |
|
19 |
49% |
91% |
Median |
20 |
37% |
42% |
|
21 |
5% |
5% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
19% |
98.9% |
|
18 |
55% |
80% |
Median |
19 |
24% |
25% |
|
20 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
7% |
100% |
|
17 |
46% |
93% |
|
18 |
45% |
47% |
Median |
19 |
2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
3% |
100% |
|
15 |
43% |
97% |
Median |
16 |
37% |
54% |
|
17 |
16% |
17% |
|
18 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
44% |
98.9% |
Median |
14 |
50% |
55% |
|
15 |
5% |
5% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
5% |
100% |
|
14 |
56% |
95% |
Median |
15 |
38% |
39% |
|
16 |
2% |
2% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
9 |
16% |
99.8% |
|
10 |
61% |
83% |
Median |
11 |
22% |
22% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): RÚV
- Fieldwork period: 13–19 September 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 3845
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.22%