Opinion Poll by Prósent for Fréttablaðið, 17–21 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 20.1% 18.7–21.6% 18.3–22.0% 18.0–22.4% 17.3–23.1%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 14.7% 13.5–16.1% 13.2–16.5% 12.9–16.8% 12.3–17.5%
Píratar 9.2% 13.1% 12.0–14.4% 11.6–14.8% 11.4–15.1% 10.8–15.7%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 12.2% 11.1–13.5% 10.8–13.9% 10.5–14.2% 10.0–14.8%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.7% 9.7–11.9% 9.4–12.3% 9.1–12.6% 8.6–13.2%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.7% 7.8–11.0% 7.3–11.6%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 6.9% 6.0–7.9% 5.8–8.2% 5.6–8.4% 5.2–8.9%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 6.6% 5.8–7.6% 5.6–7.9% 5.4–8.2% 5.0–8.7%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.2% 4.5–6.1% 4.3–6.4% 4.1–6.6% 3.8–7.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 13 13–14 13–15 12–15 12–16
Samfylkingin 7 10 9–10 8–11 8–11 8–12
Píratar 6 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 7–10
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 9 8–10 8–10 7–11 7–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–9
Viðreisn 4 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–7
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 4% 99.5%  
13 56% 96% Median
14 33% 40%  
15 6% 7%  
16 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100% Last Result
8 7% 99.8%  
9 40% 92%  
10 43% 53% Median
11 9% 10%  
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100% Last Result
7 11% 99.7%  
8 49% 88% Median
9 32% 39%  
10 8% 8%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 3% 99.6%  
8 21% 96% Last Result
9 49% 75% Median
10 23% 26%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100%  
6 32% 97%  
7 50% 65% Median
8 14% 16%  
9 1.4% 1.4%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.0% 100% Last Result
5 36% 99.0%  
6 52% 63% Median
7 11% 12%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 12% 99.8%  
4 66% 88% Median
5 21% 22%  
6 0.8% 0.8%  
7 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.6%  
3 18% 99.5%  
4 66% 81% Median
5 14% 15%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100%  
1 0% 63%  
2 0% 63%  
3 46% 63% Median
4 17% 17% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn 28 30 26% 29–32 28–33 28–33 28–34
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 33 29 2% 28–31 27–31 27–31 26–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 29 2% 28–30 28–31 27–31 26–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 26 0% 25–28 25–28 24–29 24–29
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 25 0% 24–27 23–27 23–27 22–28
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 25 0% 23–26 23–27 23–27 22–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 23 0% 22–24 21–25 21–26 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 22 0% 22–23 21–24 21–24 20–25
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 26 20 0% 18–21 18–21 18–22 17–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 20 0% 19–22 18–22 18–22 18–24
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 20 0% 19–21 19–22 18–22 18–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 19 0% 18–20 18–21 18–21 17–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 17 0% 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 15–18 15–18 14–18 14–19
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 16 0% 15–17 14–17 14–17 13–18
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 15 0% 14–16 13–17 13–17 13–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 11 0% 10–12 9–12 9–13 9–13

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 9% 99.7% Last Result
29 17% 90%  
30 28% 73%  
31 19% 45% Median
32 18% 26% Majority
33 7% 8%  
34 1.1% 1.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.9%  
27 6% 99.3%  
28 20% 93%  
29 27% 73%  
30 30% 46% Median
31 14% 16%  
32 2% 2% Majority
33 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.7% 100%  
27 3% 99.2%  
28 15% 97%  
29 48% 82% Median
30 26% 34%  
31 7% 8%  
32 1.4% 2% Majority
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 2% 99.7%  
25 16% 97%  
26 35% 81% Median
27 36% 46%  
28 8% 10%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.4% 0.4%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.5% 100%  
23 5% 99.5%  
24 17% 95%  
25 29% 77%  
26 35% 48% Last Result, Median
27 11% 13%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 2% 99.9%  
23 15% 98%  
24 28% 82% Last Result
25 26% 54% Median
26 19% 28%  
27 8% 8%  
28 0.6% 0.7%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 5% 99.7%  
22 30% 95%  
23 38% 65% Last Result, Median
24 19% 28%  
25 6% 9%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 1.4% 99.7%  
21 8% 98%  
22 48% 91% Median
23 34% 43%  
24 7% 9% Last Result
25 2% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 2% 99.9%  
18 9% 98%  
19 35% 89%  
20 25% 55% Median
21 27% 30%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.4% 99.9%  
18 5% 99.6%  
19 20% 94%  
20 33% 74%  
21 24% 42% Median
22 16% 18%  
23 1.4% 2%  
24 0.6% 0.6%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 3% 99.8%  
19 19% 96%  
20 39% 77% Median
21 29% 38%  
22 7% 9%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 23% 98%  
19 40% 75% Median
20 26% 35% Last Result
21 8% 9%  
22 0.8% 1.0%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 1.0% 99.8%  
16 16% 98.8%  
17 37% 83% Median
18 35% 46%  
19 9% 10%  
20 0.9% 1.2%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 4% 99.8%  
15 16% 96%  
16 37% 81%  
17 31% 44% Median
18 11% 13% Last Result
19 1.3% 1.5%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.2% 99.9%  
14 7% 98.7%  
15 28% 91%  
16 40% 63% Median
17 21% 24%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 6% 99.8%  
14 21% 94%  
15 36% 73% Median
16 27% 37%  
17 8% 10% Last Result
18 2% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.4% 99.9%  
9 8% 99.6%  
10 33% 92%  
11 36% 58% Median
12 20% 22%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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