Opinion Poll by Prósent for Fréttablaðið, 17–21 September 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
20.1% |
18.7–21.6% |
18.3–22.0% |
18.0–22.4% |
17.3–23.1% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
14.7% |
13.5–16.1% |
13.2–16.5% |
12.9–16.8% |
12.3–17.5% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
13.1% |
12.0–14.4% |
11.6–14.8% |
11.4–15.1% |
10.8–15.7% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
12.2% |
11.1–13.5% |
10.8–13.9% |
10.5–14.2% |
10.0–14.8% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.7% |
9.7–11.9% |
9.4–12.3% |
9.1–12.6% |
8.6–13.2% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.3% |
8.3–10.4% |
8.0–10.7% |
7.8–11.0% |
7.3–11.6% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
6.9% |
6.0–7.9% |
5.8–8.2% |
5.6–8.4% |
5.2–8.9% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
6.6% |
5.8–7.6% |
5.6–7.9% |
5.4–8.2% |
5.0–8.7% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
5.2% |
4.5–6.1% |
4.3–6.4% |
4.1–6.6% |
3.8–7.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
12 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
13 |
56% |
96% |
Median |
14 |
33% |
40% |
|
15 |
6% |
7% |
|
16 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
17 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
7% |
99.8% |
|
9 |
40% |
92% |
|
10 |
43% |
53% |
Median |
11 |
9% |
10% |
|
12 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
11% |
99.7% |
|
8 |
49% |
88% |
Median |
9 |
32% |
39% |
|
10 |
8% |
8% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
7 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
8 |
21% |
96% |
Last Result |
9 |
49% |
75% |
Median |
10 |
23% |
26% |
|
11 |
3% |
3% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
3% |
100% |
|
6 |
32% |
97% |
|
7 |
50% |
65% |
Median |
8 |
14% |
16% |
|
9 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
1.0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
36% |
99.0% |
|
6 |
52% |
63% |
Median |
7 |
11% |
12% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
3 |
12% |
99.8% |
|
4 |
66% |
88% |
Median |
5 |
21% |
22% |
|
6 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
2 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
3 |
18% |
99.5% |
|
4 |
66% |
81% |
Median |
5 |
14% |
15% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
37% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
63% |
|
2 |
0% |
63% |
|
3 |
46% |
63% |
Median |
4 |
17% |
17% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn |
28 |
30 |
26% |
29–32 |
28–33 |
28–33 |
28–34 |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
29 |
2% |
28–31 |
27–31 |
27–31 |
26–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
35 |
29 |
2% |
28–30 |
28–31 |
27–31 |
26–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
26 |
0% |
25–28 |
25–28 |
24–29 |
24–29 |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
25 |
0% |
24–27 |
23–27 |
23–27 |
22–28 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
25 |
0% |
23–26 |
23–27 |
23–27 |
22–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
21–25 |
21–26 |
21–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
22 |
0% |
22–23 |
21–24 |
21–24 |
20–25 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
20 |
0% |
18–21 |
18–21 |
18–22 |
17–22 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
18–22 |
18–22 |
18–24 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
19–22 |
18–22 |
18–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
19 |
0% |
18–20 |
18–21 |
18–21 |
17–22 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
17 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–19 |
16–19 |
15–20 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
16 |
0% |
15–18 |
15–18 |
14–18 |
14–19 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
19 |
16 |
0% |
15–17 |
14–17 |
14–17 |
13–18 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
15 |
0% |
14–16 |
13–17 |
13–17 |
13–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
11 |
0% |
10–12 |
9–12 |
9–13 |
9–13 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
28 |
9% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
29 |
17% |
90% |
|
30 |
28% |
73% |
|
31 |
19% |
45% |
Median |
32 |
18% |
26% |
Majority |
33 |
7% |
8% |
|
34 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
6% |
99.3% |
|
28 |
20% |
93% |
|
29 |
27% |
73% |
|
30 |
30% |
46% |
Median |
31 |
14% |
16% |
|
32 |
2% |
2% |
Majority |
33 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
27 |
3% |
99.2% |
|
28 |
15% |
97% |
|
29 |
48% |
82% |
Median |
30 |
26% |
34% |
|
31 |
7% |
8% |
|
32 |
1.4% |
2% |
Majority |
33 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
24 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
25 |
16% |
97% |
|
26 |
35% |
81% |
Median |
27 |
36% |
46% |
|
28 |
8% |
10% |
|
29 |
2% |
3% |
|
30 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
23 |
5% |
99.5% |
|
24 |
17% |
95% |
|
25 |
29% |
77% |
|
26 |
35% |
48% |
Last Result, Median |
27 |
11% |
13% |
|
28 |
2% |
2% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
15% |
98% |
|
24 |
28% |
82% |
Last Result |
25 |
26% |
54% |
Median |
26 |
19% |
28% |
|
27 |
8% |
8% |
|
28 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
21 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
22 |
30% |
95% |
|
23 |
38% |
65% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
19% |
28% |
|
25 |
6% |
9% |
|
26 |
2% |
3% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
20 |
1.4% |
99.7% |
|
21 |
8% |
98% |
|
22 |
48% |
91% |
Median |
23 |
34% |
43% |
|
24 |
7% |
9% |
Last Result |
25 |
2% |
2% |
|
26 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
9% |
98% |
|
19 |
35% |
89% |
|
20 |
25% |
55% |
Median |
21 |
27% |
30% |
|
22 |
2% |
3% |
|
23 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
5% |
99.6% |
|
19 |
20% |
94% |
|
20 |
33% |
74% |
|
21 |
24% |
42% |
Median |
22 |
16% |
18% |
|
23 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
24 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
19% |
96% |
|
20 |
39% |
77% |
Median |
21 |
29% |
38% |
|
22 |
7% |
9% |
|
23 |
2% |
2% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
17 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
18 |
23% |
98% |
|
19 |
40% |
75% |
Median |
20 |
26% |
35% |
Last Result |
21 |
8% |
9% |
|
22 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
15 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
16 |
16% |
98.8% |
|
17 |
37% |
83% |
Median |
18 |
35% |
46% |
|
19 |
9% |
10% |
|
20 |
0.9% |
1.2% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
14 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
15 |
16% |
96% |
|
16 |
37% |
81% |
|
17 |
31% |
44% |
Median |
18 |
11% |
13% |
Last Result |
19 |
1.3% |
1.5% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
7% |
98.7% |
|
15 |
28% |
91% |
|
16 |
40% |
63% |
Median |
17 |
21% |
24% |
|
18 |
2% |
2% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
6% |
99.8% |
|
14 |
21% |
94% |
|
15 |
36% |
73% |
Median |
16 |
27% |
37% |
|
17 |
8% |
10% |
Last Result |
18 |
2% |
2% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
8% |
99.6% |
|
10 |
33% |
92% |
|
11 |
36% |
58% |
Median |
12 |
20% |
22% |
|
13 |
2% |
3% |
|
14 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Prósent
- Commissioner(s): Fréttablaðið
- Fieldwork period: 17–21 September 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1250
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.48%