Opinion Poll by MMR for Morgunblaðið, 21–22 September 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
21.8% |
20.1–23.6% |
19.6–24.1% |
19.2–24.6% |
18.4–25.5% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
14.3% |
12.9–15.9% |
12.5–16.3% |
12.2–16.7% |
11.5–17.5% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
13.9% |
12.5–15.4% |
12.1–15.9% |
11.8–16.3% |
11.1–17.0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
11.0% |
9.8–12.4% |
9.4–12.8% |
9.1–13.2% |
8.6–13.9% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
10.7% |
9.4–12.1% |
9.1–12.5% |
8.8–12.8% |
8.3–13.6% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.1% |
8.9–11.5% |
8.6–11.9% |
8.3–12.3% |
7.8–13.0% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
7.3% |
6.3–8.5% |
6.0–8.8% |
5.7–9.1% |
5.3–9.8% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
6.1% |
5.2–7.2% |
4.9–7.5% |
4.7–7.8% |
4.3–8.4% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
4.7% |
3.9–5.8% |
3.7–6.1% |
3.5–6.3% |
3.2–6.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
13 |
14% |
99.3% |
|
14 |
55% |
85% |
Median |
15 |
20% |
31% |
|
16 |
7% |
11% |
Last Result |
17 |
2% |
4% |
|
18 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
19 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
3% |
100% |
Last Result |
9 |
20% |
97% |
|
10 |
22% |
78% |
|
11 |
24% |
55% |
Median |
12 |
28% |
32% |
|
13 |
3% |
4% |
|
14 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
7 |
3% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
8 |
34% |
97% |
|
9 |
31% |
63% |
Median |
10 |
30% |
32% |
|
11 |
2% |
2% |
|
12 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
3% |
100% |
|
6 |
40% |
97% |
|
7 |
31% |
57% |
Median |
8 |
22% |
25% |
|
9 |
3% |
4% |
|
10 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
8% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
35% |
92% |
Last Result |
7 |
41% |
57% |
Median |
8 |
15% |
16% |
|
9 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.7% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
12% |
99.3% |
|
6 |
59% |
87% |
Median |
7 |
23% |
27% |
|
8 |
4% |
5% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
19% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
42% |
81% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
35% |
39% |
|
6 |
3% |
4% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
8% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
92% |
|
2 |
0% |
92% |
|
3 |
14% |
92% |
|
4 |
75% |
78% |
Median |
5 |
4% |
4% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
6% |
100% |
|
1 |
63% |
94% |
Median |
2 |
0.3% |
31% |
|
3 |
29% |
31% |
|
4 |
2% |
2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
35 |
32 |
56% |
30–34 |
30–34 |
29–35 |
28–36 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
29 |
2% |
27–31 |
26–31 |
26–31 |
25–33 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
27 |
0.9% |
26–30 |
26–31 |
25–31 |
25–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
27 |
0.3% |
25–28 |
24–29 |
24–30 |
23–31 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
26 |
0% |
24–29 |
24–29 |
24–29 |
23–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
25 |
0% |
23–27 |
22–27 |
22–28 |
22–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
22–25 |
21–26 |
20–28 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
22 |
0% |
21–24 |
20–24 |
20–25 |
19–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
21 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–23 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–23 |
19–23 |
18–24 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
19 |
0% |
17–21 |
17–22 |
17–22 |
16–23 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
17 |
0% |
15–19 |
15–20 |
15–21 |
14–21 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
19 |
17 |
0% |
16–19 |
16–19 |
15–20 |
14–21 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
16 |
0% |
15–18 |
14–18 |
14–19 |
13–21 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
16 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–18 |
14–18 |
13–19 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
13 |
0% |
12–15 |
12–15 |
11–16 |
10–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
8 |
0% |
7–11 |
7–11 |
6–11 |
6–12 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
3% |
98% |
|
30 |
13% |
96% |
|
31 |
27% |
83% |
|
32 |
23% |
56% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
23% |
33% |
|
34 |
6% |
10% |
|
35 |
3% |
4% |
Last Result |
36 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
1.3% |
99.6% |
|
26 |
6% |
98% |
|
27 |
14% |
92% |
|
28 |
24% |
79% |
Last Result |
29 |
31% |
54% |
Median |
30 |
10% |
23% |
|
31 |
11% |
13% |
|
32 |
1.4% |
2% |
Majority |
33 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
25 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
26 |
10% |
96% |
|
27 |
37% |
87% |
|
28 |
16% |
50% |
Median |
29 |
7% |
34% |
|
30 |
18% |
27% |
|
31 |
8% |
9% |
|
32 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
Majority |
33 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
6% |
98.6% |
|
25 |
12% |
92% |
|
26 |
29% |
80% |
Median |
27 |
34% |
52% |
|
28 |
8% |
17% |
|
29 |
5% |
10% |
|
30 |
3% |
5% |
|
31 |
1.0% |
1.3% |
Last Result |
32 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
23 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
24 |
12% |
98.7% |
|
25 |
13% |
87% |
|
26 |
31% |
74% |
Last Result |
27 |
17% |
43% |
Median |
28 |
11% |
26% |
|
29 |
14% |
15% |
|
30 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
22 |
5% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
11% |
95% |
|
24 |
19% |
84% |
Last Result |
25 |
28% |
66% |
Median |
26 |
27% |
37% |
|
27 |
7% |
11% |
|
28 |
3% |
4% |
|
29 |
0.6% |
1.2% |
|
30 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
4% |
99.3% |
|
22 |
25% |
95% |
|
23 |
29% |
70% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
26% |
41% |
|
25 |
11% |
15% |
|
26 |
3% |
4% |
|
27 |
0.7% |
1.3% |
|
28 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.9% |
99.6% |
|
20 |
6% |
98.8% |
|
21 |
15% |
93% |
|
22 |
30% |
78% |
|
23 |
29% |
48% |
Median |
24 |
15% |
19% |
Last Result |
25 |
3% |
5% |
|
26 |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
19 |
5% |
99.2% |
|
20 |
32% |
94% |
|
21 |
26% |
63% |
Median |
22 |
18% |
36% |
|
23 |
14% |
18% |
|
24 |
3% |
4% |
|
25 |
1.1% |
1.5% |
|
26 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
12% |
98% |
|
20 |
48% |
86% |
Last Result, Median |
21 |
18% |
38% |
|
22 |
14% |
20% |
|
23 |
4% |
6% |
|
24 |
2% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.7% |
99.6% |
|
17 |
14% |
98.9% |
|
18 |
22% |
85% |
|
19 |
25% |
63% |
Median |
20 |
22% |
38% |
|
21 |
10% |
16% |
|
22 |
5% |
6% |
|
23 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
11% |
98% |
|
16 |
18% |
87% |
|
17 |
24% |
69% |
Median |
18 |
23% |
45% |
|
19 |
13% |
22% |
|
20 |
5% |
10% |
|
21 |
4% |
4% |
|
22 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
2% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
98% |
|
16 |
21% |
96% |
|
17 |
27% |
75% |
|
18 |
23% |
48% |
Median |
19 |
21% |
26% |
Last Result |
20 |
3% |
5% |
|
21 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
14 |
7% |
99.1% |
|
15 |
41% |
92% |
Median |
16 |
20% |
51% |
|
17 |
19% |
31% |
|
18 |
9% |
12% |
|
19 |
2% |
3% |
|
20 |
0.6% |
1.2% |
|
21 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
13 |
1.2% |
99.6% |
|
14 |
20% |
98% |
|
15 |
21% |
79% |
|
16 |
25% |
58% |
Median |
17 |
25% |
33% |
|
18 |
7% |
8% |
Last Result |
19 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
11 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
12 |
12% |
97% |
|
13 |
41% |
85% |
|
14 |
26% |
44% |
Median |
15 |
15% |
18% |
|
16 |
3% |
4% |
|
17 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
6 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
7 |
26% |
97% |
|
8 |
29% |
71% |
Median |
9 |
24% |
42% |
|
10 |
7% |
18% |
|
11 |
9% |
11% |
|
12 |
2% |
2% |
|
13 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): Morgunblaðið
- Fieldwork period: 21–22 September 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 909
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.39%