Opinion Poll by MMR for Morgunblaðið, 21–22 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 21.8% 20.1–23.6% 19.6–24.1% 19.2–24.6% 18.4–25.5%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 14.3% 12.9–15.9% 12.5–16.3% 12.2–16.7% 11.5–17.5%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 13.9% 12.5–15.4% 12.1–15.9% 11.8–16.3% 11.1–17.0%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.4–12.8% 9.1–13.2% 8.6–13.9%
Píratar 9.2% 10.7% 9.4–12.1% 9.1–12.5% 8.8–12.8% 8.3–13.6%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.1% 8.9–11.5% 8.6–11.9% 8.3–12.3% 7.8–13.0%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.0–8.8% 5.7–9.1% 5.3–9.8%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 4.9–7.5% 4.7–7.8% 4.3–8.4%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 4.7% 3.9–5.8% 3.7–6.1% 3.5–6.3% 3.2–6.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 14 13–16 13–16 13–17 12–18
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 11 9–12 9–12 8–13 8–13
Samfylkingin 7 9 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–11
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 7 6–8 6–8 5–9 5–10
Píratar 6 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Viðreisn 4 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 3–5 3–5 3–6 3–6
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 4 3–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Miðflokkurinn 7 1 1–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.6% 100%  
13 14% 99.3%  
14 55% 85% Median
15 20% 31%  
16 7% 11% Last Result
17 2% 4%  
18 1.5% 2%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 3% 100% Last Result
9 20% 97%  
10 22% 78%  
11 24% 55% Median
12 28% 32%  
13 3% 4%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 3% 99.7% Last Result
8 34% 97%  
9 31% 63% Median
10 30% 32%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100%  
6 40% 97%  
7 31% 57% Median
8 22% 25%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.8% 0.8%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 8% 99.9%  
6 35% 92% Last Result
7 41% 57% Median
8 15% 16%  
9 0.5% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.7% 100% Last Result
5 12% 99.3%  
6 59% 87% Median
7 23% 27%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 19% 99.9%  
4 42% 81% Last Result, Median
5 35% 39%  
6 3% 4%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 14% 92%  
4 75% 78% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 63% 94% Median
2 0.3% 31%  
3 29% 31%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 32 56% 30–34 30–34 29–35 28–36
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 29 2% 27–31 26–31 26–31 25–33
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 33 27 0.9% 26–30 26–31 25–31 25–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 27 0.3% 25–28 24–29 24–30 23–31
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 26 0% 24–29 24–29 24–29 23–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 25 0% 23–27 22–27 22–28 22–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 23 0% 22–25 22–25 21–26 20–28
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 22 0% 21–24 20–24 20–25 19–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 21 0% 20–23 19–23 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 20 0% 19–22 19–23 19–23 18–24
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 26 19 0% 17–21 17–22 17–22 16–23
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 17 0% 15–19 15–20 15–21 14–21
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 17 0% 16–19 16–19 15–20 14–21
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 16 0% 15–18 14–18 14–19 13–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 16 0% 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 13 0% 12–15 12–15 11–16 10–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 8 0% 7–11 7–11 6–11 6–12

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 2% 99.9%  
29 3% 98%  
30 13% 96%  
31 27% 83%  
32 23% 56% Median, Majority
33 23% 33%  
34 6% 10%  
35 3% 4% Last Result
36 0.8% 1.0%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 1.3% 99.6%  
26 6% 98%  
27 14% 92%  
28 24% 79% Last Result
29 31% 54% Median
30 10% 23%  
31 11% 13%  
32 1.4% 2% Majority
33 0.4% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100%  
25 3% 99.6%  
26 10% 96%  
27 37% 87%  
28 16% 50% Median
29 7% 34%  
30 18% 27%  
31 8% 9%  
32 0.7% 0.9% Majority
33 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.3% 99.9%  
24 6% 98.6%  
25 12% 92%  
26 29% 80% Median
27 34% 52%  
28 8% 17%  
29 5% 10%  
30 3% 5%  
31 1.0% 1.3% Last Result
32 0.2% 0.3% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.0% 99.8%  
24 12% 98.7%  
25 13% 87%  
26 31% 74% Last Result
27 17% 43% Median
28 11% 26%  
29 14% 15%  
30 0.8% 1.0%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 5% 99.8%  
23 11% 95%  
24 19% 84% Last Result
25 28% 66% Median
26 27% 37%  
27 7% 11%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.6% 1.2%  
30 0.6% 0.6%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.6% 99.9%  
21 4% 99.3%  
22 25% 95%  
23 29% 70% Last Result, Median
24 26% 41%  
25 11% 15%  
26 3% 4%  
27 0.7% 1.3%  
28 0.6% 0.6%  
29 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.6%  
20 6% 98.8%  
21 15% 93%  
22 30% 78%  
23 29% 48% Median
24 15% 19% Last Result
25 3% 5%  
26 1.1% 1.4%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.8% 100%  
19 5% 99.2%  
20 32% 94%  
21 26% 63% Median
22 18% 36%  
23 14% 18%  
24 3% 4%  
25 1.1% 1.5%  
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 2% 99.8%  
19 12% 98%  
20 48% 86% Last Result, Median
21 18% 38%  
22 14% 20%  
23 4% 6%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.4% 0.4%  
26 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.4% 100%  
16 0.7% 99.6%  
17 14% 98.9%  
18 22% 85%  
19 25% 63% Median
20 22% 38%  
21 10% 16%  
22 5% 6%  
23 0.7% 1.0%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 2% 99.9%  
15 11% 98%  
16 18% 87%  
17 24% 69% Median
18 23% 45%  
19 13% 22%  
20 5% 10%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 2% 100%  
15 2% 98%  
16 21% 96%  
17 27% 75%  
18 23% 48% Median
19 21% 26% Last Result
20 3% 5%  
21 1.5% 2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.9% 100%  
14 7% 99.1%  
15 41% 92% Median
16 20% 51%  
17 19% 31%  
18 9% 12%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.6% 1.2%  
21 0.5% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 1.2% 99.6%  
14 20% 98%  
15 21% 79%  
16 25% 58% Median
17 25% 33%  
18 7% 8% Last Result
19 1.1% 1.2%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.0% 100%  
11 2% 99.0%  
12 12% 97%  
13 41% 85%  
14 26% 44% Median
15 15% 18%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
18 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 3% 99.8%  
7 26% 97%  
8 29% 71% Median
9 24% 42%  
10 7% 18%  
11 9% 11%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations