Opinion Poll by Maskína for Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir, 15–22 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 20.6% 18.9–22.4% 18.5–22.9% 18.0–23.4% 17.3–24.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 13.4% 12.0–15.0% 11.7–15.5% 11.3–15.8% 10.7–16.6%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 11.7% 10.4–13.2% 10.1–13.6% 9.8–14.0% 9.2–14.8%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 11.5% 10.2–13.0% 9.8–13.4% 9.5–13.8% 9.0–14.5%
Viðreisn 6.7% 11.4% 10.1–12.9% 9.7–13.3% 9.4–13.7% 8.9–14.4%
Píratar 9.2% 11.3% 10.0–12.7% 9.6–13.2% 9.3–13.5% 8.8–14.3%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 7.1% 6.1–8.3% 5.8–8.6% 5.5–8.9% 5.1–9.6%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 6.6% 5.6–7.8% 5.4–8.1% 5.1–8.4% 4.7–9.1%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 5.6% 4.7–6.7% 4.5–7.0% 4.2–7.3% 3.9–7.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 13 13–15 13–15 12–16 12–18
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 9 8–11 8–12 8–12 8–12
Samfylkingin 7 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Viðreisn 4 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Píratar 6 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–9
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 4–5 3–5 3–6 3–6
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 4 3–5 3–5 0–5 0–6
Flokkur fólksins 4 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 2% 99.6%  
13 68% 97% Median
14 18% 29%  
15 7% 11%  
16 2% 4% Last Result
17 0.7% 1.4%  
18 0.6% 0.7%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 12% 99.7% Last Result
9 38% 87% Median
10 22% 49%  
11 19% 27%  
12 8% 8%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100%  
6 10% 99.3%  
7 50% 89% Last Result, Median
8 32% 39%  
9 6% 7%  
10 0.8% 0.8%  
11 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100%  
6 14% 99.2%  
7 29% 85%  
8 44% 56% Median
9 10% 12%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 1.1% 100%  
6 24% 98.9%  
7 47% 75% Median
8 23% 28%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 28% 98% Last Result
7 43% 70% Median
8 25% 27%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 10% 99.6%  
4 58% 90% Median
5 29% 32%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 25% 97%  
4 56% 72% Median
5 15% 16%  
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 0% 83%  
2 0% 83%  
3 45% 83% Median
4 36% 38% Last Result
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 30 27% 29–33 29–33 28–34 28–35
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 33 29 5% 27–31 27–31 26–32 25–33
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar 28 29 7% 27–31 27–32 26–32 25–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 27 0.4% 26–29 26–30 25–30 24–31
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 24 0% 23–27 23–27 22–27 21–28
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 23 0% 22–25 22–25 21–26 21–27
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 22 0% 20–23 20–24 19–25 18–25
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 26 21 0% 20–24 19–24 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 21 0% 20–22 19–23 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 21 0% 19–23 19–23 19–24 18–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 20 0% 19–22 19–23 19–23 18–25
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 19 0% 18–21 17–21 16–22 16–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 17 0% 17–19 16–20 16–20 15–22
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 17 0% 16–19 15–20 15–20 14–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 15 0% 13–16 13–17 13–17 12–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 14 0% 13–16 13–16 12–17 12–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 12 0% 10–13 10–13 10–14 9–15

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.4% 100%  
28 3% 99.6%  
29 14% 97%  
30 36% 82% Median
31 20% 47%  
32 15% 27% Majority
33 9% 12%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.2% 99.9%  
26 3% 98.7%  
27 13% 95%  
28 27% 82% Median
29 21% 55%  
30 19% 34%  
31 10% 15%  
32 4% 5% Majority
33 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.8%  
26 4% 99.1%  
27 6% 95%  
28 25% 89% Last Result
29 38% 64% Median
30 13% 26%  
31 5% 13%  
32 7% 7% Majority
33 0.5% 0.7%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.6% 99.9%  
25 3% 99.3%  
26 23% 96% Median
27 31% 73%  
28 25% 43%  
29 10% 17%  
30 6% 8%  
31 2% 2% Last Result
32 0.3% 0.4% Majority
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 1.4% 99.9%  
22 3% 98%  
23 16% 95%  
24 30% 79% Median
25 25% 49%  
26 11% 24% Last Result
27 10% 13%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 3% 99.6%  
22 35% 96% Median
23 25% 61%  
24 21% 37% Last Result
25 12% 16%  
26 3% 4%  
27 1.0% 1.2%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.5%  
20 8% 97%  
21 26% 89%  
22 36% 63% Median
23 18% 27%  
24 7% 9% Last Result
25 2% 3%  
26 0.4% 0.5%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.4% 99.8%  
19 5% 98%  
20 17% 94%  
21 29% 77% Median
22 27% 48%  
23 10% 21%  
24 10% 11%  
25 1.0% 1.2%  
26 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.9% 100%  
19 6% 99.1%  
20 41% 93% Median
21 29% 52%  
22 15% 23%  
23 5% 7% Last Result
24 1.1% 3%  
25 1.4% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 1.2% 100%  
19 11% 98.8%  
20 23% 88%  
21 34% 65% Median
22 21% 31%  
23 8% 11%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.8% 1.1%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.9%  
19 17% 99.2%  
20 42% 83% Last Result, Median
21 21% 40%  
22 12% 19%  
23 4% 6%  
24 1.1% 2%  
25 0.6% 0.7%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 3% 99.7%  
17 6% 97%  
18 24% 90%  
19 28% 66% Median
20 22% 39%  
21 13% 17%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.6% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.9%  
16 6% 99.4%  
17 47% 94% Median
18 29% 47%  
19 11% 18%  
20 5% 7%  
21 1.3% 2%  
22 0.6% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
24 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.3% 99.9%  
15 5% 98.6%  
16 21% 93%  
17 36% 72% Median
18 20% 36%  
19 9% 16% Last Result
20 7% 8%  
21 0.7% 1.0%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 9% 98%  
14 26% 89%  
15 31% 63% Median
16 25% 32%  
17 5% 6%  
18 1.1% 1.5% Last Result
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 3% 99.6%  
13 10% 97%  
14 37% 86%  
15 31% 49% Median
16 15% 18%  
17 3% 3% Last Result
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.7%  
10 12% 98%  
11 24% 86%  
12 34% 62% Median
13 25% 28%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.5% 0.5%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations