Opinion Poll by Maskína for Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir, 15–22 September 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
20.6% |
18.9–22.4% |
18.5–22.9% |
18.0–23.4% |
17.3–24.3% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
13.4% |
12.0–15.0% |
11.7–15.5% |
11.3–15.8% |
10.7–16.6% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
11.7% |
10.4–13.2% |
10.1–13.6% |
9.8–14.0% |
9.2–14.8% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
11.5% |
10.2–13.0% |
9.8–13.4% |
9.5–13.8% |
9.0–14.5% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
11.4% |
10.1–12.9% |
9.7–13.3% |
9.4–13.7% |
8.9–14.4% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
11.3% |
10.0–12.7% |
9.6–13.2% |
9.3–13.5% |
8.8–14.3% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
7.1% |
6.1–8.3% |
5.8–8.6% |
5.5–8.9% |
5.1–9.6% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
6.6% |
5.6–7.8% |
5.4–8.1% |
5.1–8.4% |
4.7–9.1% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
5.6% |
4.7–6.7% |
4.5–7.0% |
4.2–7.3% |
3.9–7.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
12 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
13 |
68% |
97% |
Median |
14 |
18% |
29% |
|
15 |
7% |
11% |
|
16 |
2% |
4% |
Last Result |
17 |
0.7% |
1.4% |
|
18 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
8 |
12% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
9 |
38% |
87% |
Median |
10 |
22% |
49% |
|
11 |
19% |
27% |
|
12 |
8% |
8% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
6 |
10% |
99.3% |
|
7 |
50% |
89% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
32% |
39% |
|
9 |
6% |
7% |
|
10 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
6 |
14% |
99.2% |
|
7 |
29% |
85% |
|
8 |
44% |
56% |
Median |
9 |
10% |
12% |
|
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
24% |
98.9% |
|
7 |
47% |
75% |
Median |
8 |
23% |
28% |
|
9 |
4% |
4% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
2% |
100% |
|
6 |
28% |
98% |
Last Result |
7 |
43% |
70% |
Median |
8 |
25% |
27% |
|
9 |
3% |
3% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
3 |
10% |
99.6% |
|
4 |
58% |
90% |
Median |
5 |
29% |
32% |
|
6 |
3% |
3% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
3% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
97% |
|
2 |
0% |
97% |
|
3 |
25% |
97% |
|
4 |
56% |
72% |
Median |
5 |
15% |
16% |
|
6 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
17% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
83% |
|
2 |
0% |
83% |
|
3 |
45% |
83% |
Median |
4 |
36% |
38% |
Last Result |
5 |
2% |
2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
35 |
30 |
27% |
29–33 |
29–33 |
28–34 |
28–35 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
29 |
5% |
27–31 |
27–31 |
26–32 |
25–33 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar |
28 |
29 |
7% |
27–31 |
27–32 |
26–32 |
25–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
27 |
0.4% |
26–29 |
26–30 |
25–30 |
24–31 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
24 |
0% |
23–27 |
23–27 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
23 |
0% |
22–25 |
22–25 |
21–26 |
21–27 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–24 |
19–25 |
18–25 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
21 |
0% |
20–24 |
19–24 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
21 |
0% |
20–22 |
19–23 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
21 |
0% |
19–23 |
19–23 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–23 |
19–23 |
18–25 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
19 |
0% |
18–21 |
17–21 |
16–22 |
16–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
17 |
0% |
17–19 |
16–20 |
16–20 |
15–22 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
19 |
17 |
0% |
16–19 |
15–20 |
15–20 |
14–21 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
15 |
0% |
13–16 |
13–17 |
13–17 |
12–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
14 |
0% |
13–16 |
13–16 |
12–17 |
12–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
12 |
0% |
10–13 |
10–13 |
10–14 |
9–15 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
28 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
29 |
14% |
97% |
|
30 |
36% |
82% |
Median |
31 |
20% |
47% |
|
32 |
15% |
27% |
Majority |
33 |
9% |
12% |
|
34 |
2% |
3% |
|
35 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
36 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
3% |
98.7% |
|
27 |
13% |
95% |
|
28 |
27% |
82% |
Median |
29 |
21% |
55% |
|
30 |
19% |
34% |
|
31 |
10% |
15% |
|
32 |
4% |
5% |
Majority |
33 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
4% |
99.1% |
|
27 |
6% |
95% |
|
28 |
25% |
89% |
Last Result |
29 |
38% |
64% |
Median |
30 |
13% |
26% |
|
31 |
5% |
13% |
|
32 |
7% |
7% |
Majority |
33 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
26 |
23% |
96% |
Median |
27 |
31% |
73% |
|
28 |
25% |
43% |
|
29 |
10% |
17% |
|
30 |
6% |
8% |
|
31 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
32 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
Majority |
33 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
1.4% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
3% |
98% |
|
23 |
16% |
95% |
|
24 |
30% |
79% |
Median |
25 |
25% |
49% |
|
26 |
11% |
24% |
Last Result |
27 |
10% |
13% |
|
28 |
2% |
2% |
|
29 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
22 |
35% |
96% |
Median |
23 |
25% |
61% |
|
24 |
21% |
37% |
Last Result |
25 |
12% |
16% |
|
26 |
3% |
4% |
|
27 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
20 |
8% |
97% |
|
21 |
26% |
89% |
|
22 |
36% |
63% |
Median |
23 |
18% |
27% |
|
24 |
7% |
9% |
Last Result |
25 |
2% |
3% |
|
26 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
1.4% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
5% |
98% |
|
20 |
17% |
94% |
|
21 |
29% |
77% |
Median |
22 |
27% |
48% |
|
23 |
10% |
21% |
|
24 |
10% |
11% |
|
25 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
26 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
19 |
6% |
99.1% |
|
20 |
41% |
93% |
Median |
21 |
29% |
52% |
|
22 |
15% |
23% |
|
23 |
5% |
7% |
Last Result |
24 |
1.1% |
3% |
|
25 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
26 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
11% |
98.8% |
|
20 |
23% |
88% |
|
21 |
34% |
65% |
Median |
22 |
21% |
31% |
|
23 |
8% |
11% |
|
24 |
2% |
3% |
|
25 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
|
26 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
17% |
99.2% |
|
20 |
42% |
83% |
Last Result, Median |
21 |
21% |
40% |
|
22 |
12% |
19% |
|
23 |
4% |
6% |
|
24 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
16 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
17 |
6% |
97% |
|
18 |
24% |
90% |
|
19 |
28% |
66% |
Median |
20 |
22% |
39% |
|
21 |
13% |
17% |
|
22 |
3% |
4% |
|
23 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
6% |
99.4% |
|
17 |
47% |
94% |
Median |
18 |
29% |
47% |
|
19 |
11% |
18% |
|
20 |
5% |
7% |
|
21 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
5% |
98.6% |
|
16 |
21% |
93% |
|
17 |
36% |
72% |
Median |
18 |
20% |
36% |
|
19 |
9% |
16% |
Last Result |
20 |
7% |
8% |
|
21 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
12 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
13 |
9% |
98% |
|
14 |
26% |
89% |
|
15 |
31% |
63% |
Median |
16 |
25% |
32% |
|
17 |
5% |
6% |
|
18 |
1.1% |
1.5% |
Last Result |
19 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
12 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
13 |
10% |
97% |
|
14 |
37% |
86% |
|
15 |
31% |
49% |
Median |
16 |
15% |
18% |
|
17 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
9 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
10 |
12% |
98% |
|
11 |
24% |
86% |
|
12 |
34% |
62% |
Median |
13 |
25% |
28% |
|
14 |
3% |
4% |
|
15 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Maskína
- Commissioner(s): Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir
- Fieldwork period: 15–22 September 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 879
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.10%