Opinion Poll by MMR for Morgunblaðið, 22–23 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 22.9% 21.1–24.7% 20.7–25.2% 20.2–25.7% 19.4–26.6%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 16.4% 14.9–18.0% 14.5–18.5% 14.1–18.9% 13.4–19.7%
Viðreisn 6.7% 12.0% 10.7–13.5% 10.3–13.9% 10.0–14.3% 9.4–15.0%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 11.5% 10.3–13.0% 9.9–13.4% 9.6–13.8% 9.1–14.5%
Píratar 9.2% 9.9% 8.7–11.3% 8.4–11.7% 8.1–12.0% 7.6–12.7%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 9.7% 8.5–11.0% 8.2–11.4% 7.9–11.8% 7.4–12.5%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 6.2% 5.2–7.3% 5.0–7.6% 4.8–7.9% 4.4–8.5%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 5.8% 4.9–7.0% 4.7–7.3% 4.5–7.5% 4.1–8.1%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 5.1% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.8–6.7% 3.4–7.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 15 13–18 13–19 13–19 13–19
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 12 11–14 11–15 10–15 10–16
Viðreisn 4 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–9
Samfylkingin 7 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Píratar 6 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–8
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–8
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 3–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Miðflokkurinn 7 3 1–4 1–4 1–4 1–5
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 3 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 12% 100%  
14 18% 88%  
15 29% 70% Median
16 11% 41% Last Result
17 13% 30%  
18 11% 17%  
19 6% 6%  
20 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100% Last Result
9 0.2% 99.9%  
10 5% 99.7%  
11 6% 95%  
12 53% 89% Median
13 9% 36%  
14 21% 27%  
15 4% 6%  
16 1.2% 1.4%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.7% 100%  
6 13% 99.3%  
7 46% 86% Median
8 31% 40%  
9 8% 9%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 20% 99.5%  
7 42% 79% Last Result, Median
8 30% 38%  
9 7% 8%  
10 1.1% 1.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.5% 100%  
5 22% 98.5%  
6 43% 76% Last Result, Median
7 27% 33%  
8 6% 6%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 24% 98%  
6 52% 74% Median
7 14% 22%  
8 8% 8%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 0% 94%  
2 0.4% 94%  
3 37% 94%  
4 50% 57% Last Result, Median
5 7% 7%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 16% 99.9%  
2 0.3% 84%  
3 46% 83% Median
4 35% 37%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result
1 0% 52%  
2 2% 52%  
3 41% 50% Median
4 9% 10%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 34 94% 32–37 31–37 31–38 30–38
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 31 39% 29–34 28–34 28–35 27–36
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 33 29 5% 26–31 26–32 25–32 25–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 28 3% 26–30 25–31 25–32 24–33
Viðreisn – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 28 27 0.7% 24–29 23–30 23–30 22–32
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 26 0% 24–28 23–28 23–29 22–30
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 23 0% 21–25 20–26 20–26 19–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 23 0% 20–25 20–26 19–26 19–27
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 26 22 0% 20–23 19–24 19–25 18–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 21 0% 19–24 19–24 18–25 18–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 19 0% 16–21 16–22 16–23 15–23
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 24 20 0% 17–22 17–22 16–22 16–24
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 18 0% 17–20 17–21 16–21 15–23
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 16 0% 14–19 14–19 13–19 13–20
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 13 0% 12–15 11–16 11–16 11–17
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 17 12 0% 11–14 10–14 10–15 9–15
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 9 0% 7–11 7–11 7–12 6–12

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 1.2% 99.8%  
31 5% 98.6%  
32 10% 94% Majority
33 25% 84% Median
34 21% 59%  
35 16% 38% Last Result
36 11% 22%  
37 8% 11%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 1.3% 99.8%  
28 7% 98%  
29 12% 91%  
30 18% 80% Median
31 22% 62% Last Result
32 15% 39% Majority
33 13% 25%  
34 8% 12%  
35 2% 4%  
36 1.5% 2%  
37 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100%  
25 2% 99.6%  
26 9% 97%  
27 7% 88%  
28 17% 81% Median
29 26% 64%  
30 23% 38%  
31 9% 14%  
32 3% 5% Majority
33 2% 2% Last Result
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.9% 99.8% Last Result
25 5% 98.9%  
26 13% 94%  
27 25% 81% Median
28 17% 56%  
29 15% 39%  
30 14% 24%  
31 6% 9%  
32 2% 3% Majority
33 1.1% 1.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Viðreisn – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 2% 99.9%  
23 4% 98%  
24 6% 94%  
25 10% 88%  
26 23% 78% Median
27 17% 55%  
28 22% 39% Last Result
29 9% 16%  
30 6% 7%  
31 0.5% 1.2%  
32 0.4% 0.7% Majority
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 1.3% 99.9%  
23 6% 98.6%  
24 13% 92%  
25 16% 80% Median
26 30% 63% Last Result
27 21% 33%  
28 8% 12%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.9% 1.0%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0% Majority

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.8% 100%  
20 7% 99.2% Last Result
21 15% 92%  
22 21% 77% Median
23 21% 56%  
24 17% 35%  
25 11% 17%  
26 5% 7%  
27 1.4% 2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 4% 100%  
20 6% 96%  
21 14% 89%  
22 18% 75% Median
23 22% 57% Last Result
24 20% 36%  
25 9% 16%  
26 6% 7%  
27 0.6% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 2% 99.6%  
19 8% 98%  
20 9% 90%  
21 27% 81% Median
22 27% 54%  
23 18% 27%  
24 7% 10%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.8% 1.3% Last Result
27 0.5% 0.5%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 3% 99.9%  
19 13% 97%  
20 12% 85%  
21 25% 72% Median
22 16% 47%  
23 16% 32%  
24 11% 16%  
25 4% 5%  
26 0.5% 0.5%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.5% 100%  
15 2% 99.5%  
16 15% 98%  
17 15% 82%  
18 17% 68% Median
19 19% 51%  
20 14% 32%  
21 10% 18%  
22 5% 8%  
23 3% 3% Last Result
24 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.4% 100%  
16 3% 99.6%  
17 10% 97%  
18 16% 87%  
19 21% 71% Median
20 24% 50%  
21 16% 26%  
22 9% 11%  
23 0.9% 1.5%  
24 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.3% 99.9%  
16 2% 98.6%  
17 15% 96%  
18 36% 81% Median
19 19% 45% Last Result
20 19% 26%  
21 6% 8%  
22 1.2% 2%  
23 0.8% 0.8%  
24 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 3% 99.7%  
14 13% 97%  
15 17% 85%  
16 20% 68% Median
17 22% 48%  
18 15% 26%  
19 9% 11%  
20 1.1% 1.3%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.5% 100%  
11 8% 99.5%  
12 20% 91%  
13 25% 71% Median
14 29% 45%  
15 11% 16%  
16 5% 5%  
17 0.6% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 1.4% 100%  
10 6% 98.6%  
11 26% 92%  
12 26% 66% Median
13 24% 40%  
14 12% 16%  
15 4% 4%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 2% 99.9%  
7 12% 98%  
8 16% 86%  
9 33% 70% Median
10 22% 37%  
11 11% 15%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

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