Opinion Poll by MMR for Morgunblaðið, 22–23 September 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
22.9% |
21.1–24.7% |
20.7–25.2% |
20.2–25.7% |
19.4–26.6% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
16.4% |
14.9–18.0% |
14.5–18.5% |
14.1–18.9% |
13.4–19.7% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
12.0% |
10.7–13.5% |
10.3–13.9% |
10.0–14.3% |
9.4–15.0% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
11.5% |
10.3–13.0% |
9.9–13.4% |
9.6–13.8% |
9.1–14.5% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
9.9% |
8.7–11.3% |
8.4–11.7% |
8.1–12.0% |
7.6–12.7% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
9.7% |
8.5–11.0% |
8.2–11.4% |
7.9–11.8% |
7.4–12.5% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
6.2% |
5.2–7.3% |
5.0–7.6% |
4.8–7.9% |
4.4–8.5% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
5.8% |
4.9–7.0% |
4.7–7.3% |
4.5–7.5% |
4.1–8.1% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
5.1% |
4.2–6.1% |
4.0–6.4% |
3.8–6.7% |
3.4–7.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
12% |
100% |
|
14 |
18% |
88% |
|
15 |
29% |
70% |
Median |
16 |
11% |
41% |
Last Result |
17 |
13% |
30% |
|
18 |
11% |
17% |
|
19 |
6% |
6% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
9 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
10 |
5% |
99.7% |
|
11 |
6% |
95% |
|
12 |
53% |
89% |
Median |
13 |
9% |
36% |
|
14 |
21% |
27% |
|
15 |
4% |
6% |
|
16 |
1.2% |
1.4% |
|
17 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
6 |
13% |
99.3% |
|
7 |
46% |
86% |
Median |
8 |
31% |
40% |
|
9 |
8% |
9% |
|
10 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
6 |
20% |
99.5% |
|
7 |
42% |
79% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
30% |
38% |
|
9 |
7% |
8% |
|
10 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
5 |
22% |
98.5% |
|
6 |
43% |
76% |
Last Result, Median |
7 |
27% |
33% |
|
8 |
6% |
6% |
|
9 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
2% |
100% |
|
5 |
24% |
98% |
|
6 |
52% |
74% |
Median |
7 |
14% |
22% |
|
8 |
8% |
8% |
|
9 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
6% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
94% |
|
2 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
3 |
37% |
94% |
|
4 |
50% |
57% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
7% |
7% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
16% |
99.9% |
|
2 |
0.3% |
84% |
|
3 |
46% |
83% |
Median |
4 |
35% |
37% |
|
5 |
2% |
2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
48% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
52% |
|
2 |
2% |
52% |
|
3 |
41% |
50% |
Median |
4 |
9% |
10% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
35 |
34 |
94% |
32–37 |
31–37 |
31–38 |
30–38 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
31 |
39% |
29–34 |
28–34 |
28–35 |
27–36 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
29 |
5% |
26–31 |
26–32 |
25–32 |
25–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
28 |
3% |
26–30 |
25–31 |
25–32 |
24–33 |
Viðreisn – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
28 |
27 |
0.7% |
24–29 |
23–30 |
23–30 |
22–32 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
26 |
0% |
24–28 |
23–28 |
23–29 |
22–30 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
23 |
0% |
21–25 |
20–26 |
20–26 |
19–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
23 |
0% |
20–25 |
20–26 |
19–26 |
19–27 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
19–24 |
19–25 |
18–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
21 |
0% |
19–24 |
19–24 |
18–25 |
18–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
19 |
0% |
16–21 |
16–22 |
16–23 |
15–23 |
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
24 |
20 |
0% |
17–22 |
17–22 |
16–22 |
16–24 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
19 |
18 |
0% |
17–20 |
17–21 |
16–21 |
15–23 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
16 |
0% |
14–19 |
14–19 |
13–19 |
13–20 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
13 |
0% |
12–15 |
11–16 |
11–16 |
11–17 |
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
17 |
12 |
0% |
11–14 |
10–14 |
10–15 |
9–15 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
9 |
0% |
7–11 |
7–11 |
7–12 |
6–12 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
30 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
31 |
5% |
98.6% |
|
32 |
10% |
94% |
Majority |
33 |
25% |
84% |
Median |
34 |
21% |
59% |
|
35 |
16% |
38% |
Last Result |
36 |
11% |
22% |
|
37 |
8% |
11% |
|
38 |
2% |
3% |
|
39 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
27 |
1.3% |
99.8% |
|
28 |
7% |
98% |
|
29 |
12% |
91% |
|
30 |
18% |
80% |
Median |
31 |
22% |
62% |
Last Result |
32 |
15% |
39% |
Majority |
33 |
13% |
25% |
|
34 |
8% |
12% |
|
35 |
2% |
4% |
|
36 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
25 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
26 |
9% |
97% |
|
27 |
7% |
88% |
|
28 |
17% |
81% |
Median |
29 |
26% |
64% |
|
30 |
23% |
38% |
|
31 |
9% |
14% |
|
32 |
3% |
5% |
Majority |
33 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
25 |
5% |
98.9% |
|
26 |
13% |
94% |
|
27 |
25% |
81% |
Median |
28 |
17% |
56% |
|
29 |
15% |
39% |
|
30 |
14% |
24% |
|
31 |
6% |
9% |
|
32 |
2% |
3% |
Majority |
33 |
1.1% |
1.2% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn – Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
4% |
98% |
|
24 |
6% |
94% |
|
25 |
10% |
88% |
|
26 |
23% |
78% |
Median |
27 |
17% |
55% |
|
28 |
22% |
39% |
Last Result |
29 |
9% |
16% |
|
30 |
6% |
7% |
|
31 |
0.5% |
1.2% |
|
32 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
Majority |
33 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
6% |
98.6% |
|
24 |
13% |
92% |
|
25 |
16% |
80% |
Median |
26 |
30% |
63% |
Last Result |
27 |
21% |
33% |
|
28 |
8% |
12% |
|
29 |
3% |
4% |
|
30 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
20 |
7% |
99.2% |
Last Result |
21 |
15% |
92% |
|
22 |
21% |
77% |
Median |
23 |
21% |
56% |
|
24 |
17% |
35% |
|
25 |
11% |
17% |
|
26 |
5% |
7% |
|
27 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
4% |
100% |
|
20 |
6% |
96% |
|
21 |
14% |
89% |
|
22 |
18% |
75% |
Median |
23 |
22% |
57% |
Last Result |
24 |
20% |
36% |
|
25 |
9% |
16% |
|
26 |
6% |
7% |
|
27 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
19 |
8% |
98% |
|
20 |
9% |
90% |
|
21 |
27% |
81% |
Median |
22 |
27% |
54% |
|
23 |
18% |
27% |
|
24 |
7% |
10% |
|
25 |
2% |
3% |
|
26 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
Last Result |
27 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
13% |
97% |
|
20 |
12% |
85% |
|
21 |
25% |
72% |
Median |
22 |
16% |
47% |
|
23 |
16% |
32% |
|
24 |
11% |
16% |
|
25 |
4% |
5% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
16 |
15% |
98% |
|
17 |
15% |
82% |
|
18 |
17% |
68% |
Median |
19 |
19% |
51% |
|
20 |
14% |
32% |
|
21 |
10% |
18% |
|
22 |
5% |
8% |
|
23 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
16 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
17 |
10% |
97% |
|
18 |
16% |
87% |
|
19 |
21% |
71% |
Median |
20 |
24% |
50% |
|
21 |
16% |
26% |
|
22 |
9% |
11% |
|
23 |
0.9% |
1.5% |
|
24 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
25 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
17 |
15% |
96% |
|
18 |
36% |
81% |
Median |
19 |
19% |
45% |
Last Result |
20 |
19% |
26% |
|
21 |
6% |
8% |
|
22 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
14 |
13% |
97% |
|
15 |
17% |
85% |
|
16 |
20% |
68% |
Median |
17 |
22% |
48% |
|
18 |
15% |
26% |
|
19 |
9% |
11% |
|
20 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
11 |
8% |
99.5% |
|
12 |
20% |
91% |
|
13 |
25% |
71% |
Median |
14 |
29% |
45% |
|
15 |
11% |
16% |
|
16 |
5% |
5% |
|
17 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
10 |
6% |
98.6% |
|
11 |
26% |
92% |
|
12 |
26% |
66% |
Median |
13 |
24% |
40% |
|
14 |
12% |
16% |
|
15 |
4% |
4% |
|
16 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
12% |
98% |
|
8 |
16% |
86% |
|
9 |
33% |
70% |
Median |
10 |
22% |
37% |
|
11 |
11% |
15% |
|
12 |
4% |
4% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MMR
- Commissioner(s): Morgunblaðið
- Fieldwork period: 22–23 September 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 910
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.09%