Opinion Poll by Gallup for RÚV, 24 September 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
23.4% |
22.6–24.2% |
22.4–24.4% |
22.2–24.6% |
21.9–25.0% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
14.9% |
14.3–15.6% |
14.1–15.8% |
13.9–15.9% |
13.6–16.3% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
12.6% |
12.0–13.2% |
11.8–13.4% |
11.7–13.6% |
11.4–13.9% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
12.0% |
11.4–12.6% |
11.2–12.8% |
11.1–12.9% |
10.8–13.2% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
9.2% |
8.7–9.7% |
8.5–9.9% |
8.4–10.0% |
8.2–10.3% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
8.8% |
8.3–9.3% |
8.2–9.5% |
8.0–9.6% |
7.8–9.9% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
6.8% |
6.4–7.3% |
6.2–7.4% |
6.1–7.5% |
5.9–7.8% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
6.4% |
6.0–6.9% |
5.9–7.0% |
5.7–7.1% |
5.5–7.4% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
5.3% |
4.9–5.7% |
4.8–5.9% |
4.7–6.0% |
4.5–6.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
3% |
100% |
|
15 |
19% |
97% |
|
16 |
25% |
78% |
Last Result |
17 |
40% |
53% |
Median |
18 |
13% |
13% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
9 |
0.8% |
100% |
|
10 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
11 |
76% |
95% |
Median |
12 |
20% |
20% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
7 |
58% |
98.5% |
Last Result, Median |
8 |
27% |
40% |
|
9 |
11% |
13% |
|
10 |
2% |
2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
2% |
100% |
|
7 |
15% |
98% |
|
8 |
71% |
83% |
Median |
9 |
12% |
12% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
76% |
98% |
Median |
6 |
23% |
23% |
|
7 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
6% |
100% |
|
5 |
83% |
94% |
Median |
6 |
11% |
11% |
Last Result |
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
24% |
100% |
|
4 |
75% |
76% |
Median |
5 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
50% |
100% |
|
4 |
50% |
50% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
17% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
83% |
|
2 |
2% |
83% |
|
3 |
80% |
80% |
Median |
4 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
35 |
36 |
100% |
34–37 |
34–37 |
33–37 |
33–38 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
31 |
45% |
30–33 |
30–33 |
29–34 |
29–34 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
30 |
14% |
29–32 |
29–32 |
29–33 |
28–33 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
28 |
0% |
26–29 |
26–30 |
25–30 |
25–30 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
26 |
0% |
26–28 |
25–28 |
25–29 |
24–29 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar |
28 |
25 |
0% |
24–27 |
24–28 |
24–28 |
23–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
24 |
0% |
23–25 |
22–26 |
22–26 |
21–26 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
25 |
0% |
23–25 |
22–26 |
22–26 |
22–27 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
22–24 |
21–24 |
21–25 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
22 |
0% |
20–23 |
20–23 |
20–23 |
19–24 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
20 |
0% |
19–22 |
19–22 |
19–23 |
18–23 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
18–22 |
18–22 |
18–22 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
19 |
0% |
18–21 |
17–21 |
17–21 |
17–22 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
19 |
19 |
0% |
19–20 |
18–20 |
18–20 |
17–21 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
15 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–17 |
14–17 |
13–18 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
13 |
0% |
12–14 |
12–14 |
11–14 |
11–15 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
12 |
0% |
11–12 |
10–13 |
10–13 |
10–13 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.1% |
100% |
Majority |
33 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
34 |
14% |
97% |
|
35 |
28% |
83% |
Last Result |
36 |
45% |
55% |
Median |
37 |
8% |
10% |
|
38 |
2% |
2% |
|
39 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
29 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
20% |
95% |
|
31 |
30% |
75% |
Last Result |
32 |
32% |
45% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
11% |
13% |
|
34 |
3% |
3% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
17% |
98% |
|
30 |
39% |
81% |
Median |
31 |
27% |
41% |
|
32 |
11% |
14% |
Majority |
33 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
3% |
100% |
|
26 |
15% |
97% |
|
27 |
27% |
81% |
|
28 |
37% |
54% |
Median |
29 |
12% |
17% |
|
30 |
5% |
5% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
25 |
5% |
99.1% |
|
26 |
45% |
94% |
Last Result, Median |
27 |
33% |
48% |
|
28 |
13% |
16% |
|
29 |
3% |
3% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
9% |
98% |
|
25 |
40% |
89% |
Median |
26 |
23% |
49% |
|
27 |
17% |
26% |
|
28 |
7% |
9% |
Last Result |
29 |
2% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
22 |
6% |
99.4% |
|
23 |
23% |
93% |
Last Result |
24 |
46% |
71% |
Median |
25 |
20% |
25% |
|
26 |
5% |
5% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
22 |
6% |
99.7% |
|
23 |
13% |
93% |
|
24 |
29% |
80% |
|
25 |
43% |
51% |
Median |
26 |
7% |
8% |
|
27 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
21 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
22 |
24% |
97% |
|
23 |
61% |
73% |
Median |
24 |
12% |
12% |
|
25 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
2% |
100% |
|
20 |
15% |
98% |
Last Result |
21 |
25% |
83% |
|
22 |
35% |
57% |
Median |
23 |
21% |
23% |
|
24 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
9% |
98% |
|
20 |
49% |
89% |
Median |
21 |
21% |
40% |
|
22 |
16% |
19% |
|
23 |
4% |
4% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
5% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
22% |
95% |
|
20 |
29% |
73% |
|
21 |
36% |
43% |
Median |
22 |
7% |
7% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
17% |
95% |
|
19 |
45% |
78% |
Median |
20 |
19% |
33% |
|
21 |
12% |
14% |
|
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
18 |
7% |
98.7% |
|
19 |
76% |
91% |
Last Result, Median |
20 |
15% |
15% |
|
21 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
2% |
100% |
|
14 |
8% |
98% |
|
15 |
49% |
90% |
Median |
16 |
25% |
41% |
|
17 |
13% |
15% |
|
18 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
11 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
12 |
18% |
97% |
|
13 |
61% |
80% |
Median |
14 |
17% |
18% |
|
15 |
2% |
2% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
10 |
6% |
99.8% |
|
11 |
28% |
94% |
|
12 |
56% |
66% |
Median |
13 |
9% |
9% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): RÚV
- Fieldwork period: 24 September 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 4809
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.78%