Opinion Poll by Gallup for RÚV, 24 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 23.4% 22.6–24.2% 22.4–24.4% 22.2–24.6% 21.9–25.0%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 14.9% 14.3–15.6% 14.1–15.8% 13.9–15.9% 13.6–16.3%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 12.6% 12.0–13.2% 11.8–13.4% 11.7–13.6% 11.4–13.9%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 12.0% 11.4–12.6% 11.2–12.8% 11.1–12.9% 10.8–13.2%
Viðreisn 6.7% 9.2% 8.7–9.7% 8.5–9.9% 8.4–10.0% 8.2–10.3%
Píratar 9.2% 8.8% 8.3–9.3% 8.2–9.5% 8.0–9.6% 7.8–9.9%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 6.8% 6.4–7.3% 6.2–7.4% 6.1–7.5% 5.9–7.8%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 6.4% 6.0–6.9% 5.9–7.0% 5.7–7.1% 5.5–7.4%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 5.3% 4.9–5.7% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.0% 4.5–6.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 17 15–18 15–18 14–18 14–18
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 11 11–12 11–12 10–12 9–12
Samfylkingin 7 7 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–9
Viðreisn 4 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–6
Píratar 6 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Miðflokkurinn 7 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 3 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 3% 100%  
15 19% 97%  
16 25% 78% Last Result
17 40% 53% Median
18 13% 13%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0.8% 100%  
10 4% 99.2%  
11 76% 95% Median
12 20% 20%  
13 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.5% 100%  
7 58% 98.5% Last Result, Median
8 27% 40%  
9 11% 13%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 15% 98%  
8 71% 83% Median
9 12% 12%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100% Last Result
5 76% 98% Median
6 23% 23%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 6% 100%  
5 83% 94% Median
6 11% 11% Last Result
7 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 24% 100%  
4 75% 76% Median
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 50% 100%  
4 50% 50% Last Result, Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100% Last Result
1 0% 83%  
2 2% 83%  
3 80% 80% Median
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 36 100% 34–37 34–37 33–37 33–38
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 31 45% 30–33 30–33 29–34 29–34
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 33 30 14% 29–32 29–32 29–33 28–33
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 28 0% 26–29 26–30 25–30 25–30
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 26 0% 26–28 25–28 25–29 24–29
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar 28 25 0% 24–27 24–28 24–28 23–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 24 0% 23–25 22–26 22–26 21–26
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 25 0% 23–25 22–26 22–26 22–27
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 26 23 0% 22–24 22–24 21–24 21–25
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 22 0% 20–23 20–23 20–23 19–24
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 20 0% 19–22 19–22 19–23 18–23
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 20 0% 19–21 18–22 18–22 18–22
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 19 0% 18–21 17–21 17–21 17–22
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 19 0% 19–20 18–20 18–20 17–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 15 0% 14–17 14–17 14–17 13–18
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 13 0% 12–14 12–14 11–14 11–15
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 12 0% 11–12 10–13 10–13 10–13

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100% Majority
33 3% 99.9%  
34 14% 97%  
35 28% 83% Last Result
36 45% 55% Median
37 8% 10%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 4% 99.8%  
30 20% 95%  
31 30% 75% Last Result
32 32% 45% Median, Majority
33 11% 13%  
34 3% 3%  
35 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 2% 99.9%  
29 17% 98%  
30 39% 81% Median
31 27% 41%  
32 11% 14% Majority
33 3% 3% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 3% 100%  
26 15% 97%  
27 27% 81%  
28 37% 54% Median
29 12% 17%  
30 5% 5%  
31 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.9% 100%  
25 5% 99.1%  
26 45% 94% Last Result, Median
27 33% 48%  
28 13% 16%  
29 3% 3%  
30 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Viðreisn – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 2% 99.9%  
24 9% 98%  
25 40% 89% Median
26 23% 49%  
27 17% 26%  
28 7% 9% Last Result
29 2% 2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.6% 100%  
22 6% 99.4%  
23 23% 93% Last Result
24 46% 71% Median
25 20% 25%  
26 5% 5%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 6% 99.7%  
23 13% 93%  
24 29% 80%  
25 43% 51% Median
26 7% 8%  
27 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 2% 99.8%  
22 24% 97%  
23 61% 73% Median
24 12% 12%  
25 0.7% 0.7%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 2% 100%  
20 15% 98% Last Result
21 25% 83%  
22 35% 57% Median
23 21% 23%  
24 1.4% 1.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 2% 99.8%  
19 9% 98%  
20 49% 89% Median
21 21% 40%  
22 16% 19%  
23 4% 4%  
24 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 5% 99.8%  
19 22% 95%  
20 29% 73%  
21 36% 43% Median
22 7% 7%  
23 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
24 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 5% 99.9%  
18 17% 95%  
19 45% 78% Median
20 19% 33%  
21 12% 14%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 1.3% 100%  
18 7% 98.7%  
19 76% 91% Last Result, Median
20 15% 15%  
21 0.7% 0.7%  
22 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 2% 100%  
14 8% 98%  
15 49% 90% Median
16 25% 41%  
17 13% 15%  
18 2% 2% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 3% 99.7%  
12 18% 97%  
13 61% 80% Median
14 17% 18%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 6% 99.8%  
11 28% 94%  
12 56% 66% Median
13 9% 9%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations