Opinion Poll by Maskína for Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir, 22–24 September 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
25.2% |
21.4% |
20.7–22.1% |
20.5–22.3% |
20.4–22.5% |
20.1–22.8% |
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
10.7% |
15.4% |
14.8–16.0% |
14.6–16.2% |
14.5–16.4% |
14.2–16.6% |
Samfylkingin |
12.1% |
13.8% |
13.2–14.4% |
13.1–14.6% |
12.9–14.7% |
12.7–15.0% |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
16.9% |
10.5% |
10.0–11.0% |
9.9–11.2% |
9.7–11.3% |
9.5–11.6% |
Píratar |
9.2% |
10.2% |
9.7–10.7% |
9.6–10.9% |
9.4–11.0% |
9.2–11.2% |
Viðreisn |
6.7% |
10.1% |
9.6–10.6% |
9.5–10.8% |
9.3–10.9% |
9.1–11.1% |
Flokkur fólksins |
6.9% |
6.2% |
5.8–6.6% |
5.7–6.8% |
5.6–6.8% |
5.4–7.1% |
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
0.0% |
6.1% |
5.7–6.5% |
5.6–6.6% |
5.5–6.7% |
5.3–7.0% |
Miðflokkurinn |
10.9% |
5.5% |
5.1–5.9% |
5.0–6.0% |
4.9–6.1% |
4.8–6.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
34% |
100% |
|
14 |
63% |
66% |
Median |
15 |
3% |
3% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
17 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
11 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
12 |
94% |
97% |
Median |
13 |
3% |
3% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
8 |
15% |
100% |
|
9 |
64% |
84% |
Median |
10 |
21% |
21% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
6 |
74% |
99.4% |
Median |
7 |
24% |
25% |
|
8 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Píratar
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
3% |
100% |
|
6 |
92% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
7 |
6% |
6% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Viðreisn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
3% |
100% |
|
6 |
89% |
97% |
Median |
7 |
7% |
7% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Flokkur fólksins
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
49% |
100% |
|
4 |
51% |
51% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
51% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
49% |
49% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miðflokkurinn
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
4% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
96% |
|
3 |
95% |
96% |
Median |
4 |
2% |
2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
35 |
32 |
82% |
31–33 |
31–33 |
31–33 |
31–34 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
33 |
30 |
4% |
29–31 |
29–31 |
29–32 |
28–32 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
31 |
29 |
0% |
28–29 |
27–29 |
27–30 |
27–30 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
26 |
27 |
0% |
27–28 |
26–28 |
26–29 |
26–30 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn |
28 |
27 |
0% |
27–28 |
26–29 |
26–29 |
26–29 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn |
24 |
26 |
0% |
25–26 |
25–26 |
25–27 |
24–27 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin |
23 |
23 |
0% |
22–24 |
22–24 |
21–24 |
21–25 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
24 |
21 |
0% |
21–22 |
20–23 |
20–23 |
20–23 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
26 |
21 |
0% |
21–22 |
21–22 |
20–22 |
19–22 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
27 |
20 |
0% |
19–21 |
19–21 |
19–21 |
19–22 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn |
20 |
20 |
0% |
19–20 |
19–21 |
19–21 |
18–21 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
25 |
18 |
0% |
17–19 |
17–19 |
17–20 |
16–20 |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
19 |
18 |
0% |
18–19 |
18–19 |
18–19 |
17–20 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn |
23 |
17 |
0% |
16–17 |
16–17 |
15–18 |
14–18 |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð |
18 |
15 |
0% |
15–16 |
14–16 |
14–17 |
14–17 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar |
17 |
12 |
0% |
12–13 |
12–13 |
12–13 |
11–14 |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn |
18 |
9 |
0% |
9–10 |
9–10 |
8–10 |
7–11 |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
31 |
18% |
99.6% |
|
32 |
70% |
82% |
Median, Majority |
33 |
11% |
12% |
|
34 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
10% |
98.9% |
|
30 |
57% |
89% |
Median |
31 |
28% |
32% |
|
32 |
4% |
4% |
Majority |
33 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
27 |
5% |
99.6% |
|
28 |
30% |
95% |
|
29 |
62% |
64% |
Median |
30 |
2% |
3% |
|
31 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
32 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
8% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
27 |
58% |
92% |
Median |
28 |
30% |
34% |
|
29 |
4% |
4% |
|
30 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
7% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
55% |
93% |
Median |
28 |
32% |
38% |
Last Result |
29 |
7% |
7% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
24 |
2% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
25 |
31% |
98% |
|
26 |
64% |
67% |
Median |
27 |
3% |
3% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
29 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
5% |
100% |
|
22 |
28% |
95% |
|
23 |
57% |
67% |
Last Result, Median |
24 |
9% |
10% |
|
25 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
8% |
100% |
|
21 |
56% |
92% |
Median |
22 |
30% |
36% |
|
23 |
6% |
6% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
20 |
3% |
98.6% |
|
21 |
71% |
96% |
Median |
22 |
24% |
25% |
|
23 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
18% |
100% |
|
20 |
70% |
82% |
Median |
21 |
11% |
12% |
|
22 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
19 |
31% |
99.0% |
|
20 |
63% |
68% |
Last Result, Median |
21 |
5% |
5% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
10% |
99.0% |
|
18 |
57% |
89% |
Median |
19 |
28% |
32% |
|
20 |
5% |
5% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
18 |
73% |
98.7% |
Median |
19 |
25% |
26% |
Last Result |
20 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
15 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
16 |
33% |
96% |
|
17 |
61% |
64% |
Median |
18 |
3% |
3% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
8% |
100% |
|
15 |
57% |
92% |
Median |
16 |
30% |
35% |
|
17 |
5% |
5% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
2% |
100% |
|
12 |
69% |
98% |
Median |
13 |
27% |
29% |
|
14 |
2% |
2% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
8 |
3% |
98.6% |
|
9 |
72% |
96% |
Median |
10 |
23% |
24% |
|
11 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Maskína
- Commissioner(s): Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir
- Fieldwork period: 22–24 September 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 5836
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.61%