Opinion Poll by Maskína for Bylgjan, Stöð 2 and Vísir, 22–24 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 25.2% 21.4% 20.7–22.1% 20.5–22.3% 20.4–22.5% 20.1–22.8%
Framsóknarflokkurinn 10.7% 15.4% 14.8–16.0% 14.6–16.2% 14.5–16.4% 14.2–16.6%
Samfylkingin 12.1% 13.8% 13.2–14.4% 13.1–14.6% 12.9–14.7% 12.7–15.0%
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 16.9% 10.5% 10.0–11.0% 9.9–11.2% 9.7–11.3% 9.5–11.6%
Píratar 9.2% 10.2% 9.7–10.7% 9.6–10.9% 9.4–11.0% 9.2–11.2%
Viðreisn 6.7% 10.1% 9.6–10.6% 9.5–10.8% 9.3–10.9% 9.1–11.1%
Flokkur fólksins 6.9% 6.2% 5.8–6.6% 5.7–6.8% 5.6–6.8% 5.4–7.1%
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0.0% 6.1% 5.7–6.5% 5.6–6.6% 5.5–6.7% 5.3–7.0%
Miðflokkurinn 10.9% 5.5% 5.1–5.9% 5.0–6.0% 4.9–6.1% 4.8–6.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16 14 13–14 13–14 13–15 13–15
Framsóknarflokkurinn 8 12 12 12 11–13 11–13
Samfylkingin 7 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 8–10
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 11 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
Píratar 6 6 6 6–7 5–7 5–7
Viðreisn 4 6 6 6–7 5–7 5–7
Flokkur fólksins 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Miðflokkurinn 7 3 3 3 1–3 1–4

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 34% 100%  
14 63% 66% Median
15 3% 3%  
16 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Framsóknarflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0% 100%  
10 0.3% 100%  
11 3% 99.7%  
12 94% 97% Median
13 3% 3%  
14 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Samfylkingin page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100% Last Result
8 15% 100%  
9 64% 84% Median
10 21% 21%  
11 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100%  
6 74% 99.4% Median
7 24% 25%  
8 1.2% 1.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0% Last Result

Píratar

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Píratar page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100%  
6 92% 97% Last Result, Median
7 6% 6%  
8 0% 0%  

Viðreisn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Viðreisn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 3% 100%  
6 89% 97% Median
7 7% 7%  
8 0% 0%  

Flokkur fólksins

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Flokkur fólksins page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 49% 100%  
4 51% 51% Last Result, Median
5 0% 0%  

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 51% 100% Median
4 49% 49%  
5 0% 0%  

Miðflokkurinn

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miðflokkurinn page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100%  
2 0% 96%  
3 95% 96% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 35 32 82% 31–33 31–33 31–33 31–34
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 33 30 4% 29–31 29–31 29–32 28–32
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 31 29 0% 28–29 27–29 27–30 27–30
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 26 27 0% 27–28 26–28 26–29 26–30
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn 28 27 0% 27–28 26–29 26–29 26–29
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn 24 26 0% 25–26 25–26 25–27 24–27
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin 23 23 0% 22–24 22–24 21–24 21–25
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 24 21 0% 21–22 20–23 20–23 20–23
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 26 21 0% 21–22 21–22 20–22 19–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 27 20 0% 19–21 19–21 19–21 19–22
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn 20 20 0% 19–20 19–21 19–21 18–21
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 25 18 0% 17–19 17–19 17–20 16–20
Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 19 18 0% 18–19 18–19 18–19 17–20
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn 23 17 0% 16–17 16–17 15–18 14–18
Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 18 15 0% 15–16 14–16 14–17 14–17
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar 17 12 0% 12–13 12–13 12–13 11–14
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn 18 9 0% 9–10 9–10 8–10 7–11

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.4% 100%  
31 18% 99.6%  
32 70% 82% Median, Majority
33 11% 12%  
34 0.6% 0.7%  
35 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
36 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 1.0% 99.9%  
29 10% 98.9%  
30 57% 89% Median
31 28% 32%  
32 4% 4% Majority
33 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.4% 100%  
27 5% 99.6%  
28 30% 95%  
29 62% 64% Median
30 2% 3%  
31 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
32 0% 0% Majority

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 8% 99.9% Last Result
27 58% 92% Median
28 30% 34%  
29 4% 4%  
30 0.5% 0.5%  
31 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 7% 99.9%  
27 55% 93% Median
28 32% 38% Last Result
29 7% 7%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Framsóknarflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 2% 99.9% Last Result
25 31% 98%  
26 64% 67% Median
27 3% 3%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Samfylkingin

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 5% 100%  
22 28% 95%  
23 57% 67% Last Result, Median
24 9% 10%  
25 1.2% 1.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 8% 100%  
21 56% 92% Median
22 30% 36%  
23 6% 6%  
24 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 1.3% 100%  
20 3% 98.6%  
21 71% 96% Median
22 24% 25%  
23 0.4% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 18% 100%  
20 70% 82% Median
21 11% 12%  
22 1.0% 1.0%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Viðreisn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 1.0% 100%  
19 31% 99.0%  
20 63% 68% Last Result, Median
21 5% 5%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.9% 99.9%  
17 10% 99.0%  
18 57% 89% Median
19 28% 32%  
20 5% 5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0% Last Result

Framsóknarflokkurinn – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 1.3% 100%  
18 73% 98.7% Median
19 25% 26% Last Result
20 0.9% 0.9%  
21 0% 0%  

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.7% 100%  
15 3% 99.3%  
16 33% 96%  
17 61% 64% Median
18 3% 3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Samfylkingin – Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 8% 100%  
15 57% 92% Median
16 30% 35%  
17 5% 5%  
18 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
19 0% 0%  

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Píratar

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 2% 100%  
12 69% 98% Median
13 27% 29%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0% Last Result

Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð – Miðflokkurinn

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 1.4% 100%  
8 3% 98.6%  
9 72% 96% Median
10 23% 24%  
11 1.1% 1.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations