Opinion Poll by Red C for The Sunday Business Post, 5–12 September 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fine Gael (EPP) |
22.3% |
33.0% |
31.1–34.9% |
30.6–35.5% |
30.1–36.0% |
29.3–36.9% |
Fianna Fáil (RE) |
22.3% |
31.8% |
29.9–33.7% |
29.4–34.3% |
29.0–34.8% |
28.1–35.7% |
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) |
19.5% |
13.6% |
12.3–15.1% |
11.9–15.5% |
11.6–15.9% |
11.0–16.6% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA) |
4.9% |
8.0% |
7.0–9.2% |
6.7–9.6% |
6.5–9.9% |
6.0–10.5% |
Labour Party (S&D) |
5.3% |
6.8% |
5.9–7.9% |
5.6–8.3% |
5.4–8.5% |
5.0–9.1% |
Independent Alliance (*) |
0.0% |
3.4% |
2.8–4.3% |
2.6–4.5% |
2.4–4.7% |
2.2–5.2% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) |
1.5% |
1.1% |
0.8–1.7% |
0.7–1.8% |
0.6–2.0% |
0.5–2.3% |
Social Democrats (S&D) |
0.0% |
1.1% |
0.8–1.7% |
0.7–1.8% |
0.6–2.0% |
0.5–2.3% |
Renua Ireland (*) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Independents (*) |
19.8% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Fine Gael (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
95% |
100% |
Median |
6 |
4% |
5% |
|
7 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
Majority |
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
6% |
100% |
|
5 |
28% |
94% |
|
6 |
65% |
66% |
Median |
7 |
2% |
2% |
Majority |
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
2% |
100% |
|
1 |
52% |
98% |
Median |
2 |
26% |
45% |
|
3 |
19% |
19% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
46% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
54% |
54% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
83% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
17% |
17% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Independent Alliance (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Alliance (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Social Democrats (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Renua Ireland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Independents (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fine Gael (EPP) |
4 |
5 |
0.5% |
5 |
5 |
5–6 |
5–6 |
Fianna Fáil (RE) |
1 |
6 |
2% |
5–6 |
4–6 |
4–6 |
4–7 |
Green Party (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Labour Party (S&D) – Social Democrats (S&D) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Fine Gael (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
5 |
95% |
100% |
Median |
6 |
4% |
5% |
|
7 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
Majority |
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fianna Fáil (RE)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
6% |
100% |
|
5 |
28% |
94% |
|
6 |
65% |
66% |
Median |
7 |
2% |
2% |
Majority |
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
46% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
54% |
54% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party (S&D) – Social Democrats (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
83% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
17% |
17% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Red C
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Business Post
- Fieldwork period: 5–12 September 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.45%