Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 7 June 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.8–4.5%
22–26 November 2024 Red C
Business Post
2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
20–23 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times
3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
21–22 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
2.8% 2.3–3.5% 2.2–3.7% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.2%
7–13 November 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times
3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
12–13 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times
3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
1–7 November 2024 Red C
Business Post
3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
1–2 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
2.5% 2.1–3.0% 2.0–3.2% 1.9–3.3% 1.7–3.6%
18–23 October 2024 Red C
Business Post
3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
16–22 October 2024 Red C
Business Post
3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
10–16 October 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times
3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
4 October 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
2.3% 1.9–2.9% 1.8–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.5–3.6%
13–19 September 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times
3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
14–17 September 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times
2.3% 1.9–3.0% 1.7–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.4–3.7%
5–10 September 2024 Red C
Business Post
3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.7%
31 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
2.8% 2.3–3.5% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.1%
29–30 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.6–4.5%
2 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
2.7% 2.2–3.3% 2.0–3.5% 1.9–3.7% 1.7–4.0%
5 July 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
2.9% 2.4–3.6% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.3%
26 June 2024 Red C
Business Post
3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL).

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 19% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 66% 81% Median
3.5–4.5% 14% 15%  
4.5–5.5% 0.5% 0.5%  
5.5–6.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 7 June 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 0 0 0 0 0–1
22–26 November 2024 Red C
Business Post
0 0 0 0 0–1
20–23 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times
0 0 0 0 0–1
21–22 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
0 0 0 0 0–1
7–13 November 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times
0 0 0 0 0–1
12–13 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times
0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
1–7 November 2024 Red C
Business Post
0 0 0 0 0
1–2 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
0 0 0 0 0
18–23 October 2024 Red C
Business Post
0 0 0 0–1 0–1
16–22 October 2024 Red C
Business Post
0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
10–16 October 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times
0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
4 October 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
0 0 0 0 0
13–19 September 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times
0 0 0 0 0–1
14–17 September 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times
0 0 0 0 0
5–10 September 2024 Red C
Business Post
0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
31 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
0 0 0 0 0
29–30 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
2 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
0 0 0 0 0
5 July 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
0 0 0 0 0
26 June 2024 Red C
Business Post
0 0 0 0 0–1

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL).

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.2% 1.2%  
2 0% 0%