Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 24 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 5.8% | 5.0–6.7% | 4.8–6.9% | 4.6–7.2% | 4.3–7.6% |
| 6–7 April 2024 | Ireland Thinks The Journal |
5.7% | 5.0–6.7% | 4.8–6.9% | 4.6–7.2% | 4.3–7.6% |
| 16–21 February 2024 | Red C Business Post |
5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.1–6.6% | 3.9–6.8% | 3.6–7.3% |
| 2–7 February 2024 | Ireland Thinks The Journal |
6.1% | 5.3–7.1% | 5.1–7.3% | 4.9–7.6% | 4.5–8.1% |
| 2–6 February 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
5.4% | 4.6–6.4% | 4.4–6.6% | 4.3–6.9% | 3.9–7.4% |
| 1–2 February 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
5.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–24 January 2024 | Red C Business Post |
5.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6 January 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
5.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–2 December 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
4.4% | 3.6–5.0% | 3.4–5.2% | 3.2–5.5% | 3.0–5.9% |
| 17–22 November 2023 | Red C Business Post |
5.2% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.8% |
| 2–3 November 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.5% | 2.8–4.1% | 2.7–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.3–4.8% |
| 20–25 October 2023 | Red C Business Post |
4.1% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
| 28–29 September 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.8% | 3.1–4.6% | 3.0–4.8% | 2.8–5.0% | 2.5–5.4% |
| 26 September 2023 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
5.7% | 4.8–6.5% | 4.6–6.8% | 4.4–7.0% | 4.1–7.5% |
| 7–12 September 2023 | Red C Business Post |
4.2% | 3.1–4.6% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.7–5.1% | 2.5–5.6% |
| 31 August–12 September 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3.1% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.9% | 1.9–4.1% | 1.6–4.5% |
| 31 August–1 September 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.8% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.5–4.1% | 2.3–4.3% | 2.1–4.7% |
| 4–5 August 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.2% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.3–4.3% | 2.1–4.6% |
| 28 June–12 July 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.1–4.4% | 1.9–4.9% |
| 30 June–1 July 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
4.2% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.1–5.5% | 2.8–5.9% |
| 23 June 2023 | Red C Business Post |
4.5% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.6% | 3.3–5.9% | 3.0–6.4% |
| 16–21 June 2023 | Red C Business Post |
4.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–13 June 2023 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
4.5% | 3.7–5.2% | 3.5–5.4% | 3.3–5.6% | 3.0–6.1% |
| 2 June 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
4.2% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.8–5.8% |
| 19–24 May 2023 | Red C Business Post |
4.3% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–5.9% |
| 27 April–9 May 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3.8% | 3.0–4.7% | 2.9–5.0% | 2.7–5.2% | 2.4–5.7% |
| 5–6 May 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.8% | 3.1–4.6% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.8–5.0% | 2.5–5.4% |
| 21–26 April 2023 | Red C Business Post |
4.4% | 3.6–5.3% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.8% | 2.9–6.2% |
| 28 March–4 April 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.8% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.6% | 1.7–3.8% | 1.5–4.2% |
| 31 March–1 April 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.6% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.3–4.4% | 2.0–4.8% |
| 17–22 March 2023 | Red C Business Post |
4.5% | 3.6–5.3% | 3.4–5.6% | 3.3–5.8% | 3.0–6.3% |
| 4–14 March 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.6–4.5% |
| 3 March 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.3% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.2–4.3% | 2.0–4.7% |
| 17–22 February 2023 | Red C Business Post |
4.4% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.6% | 3.3–5.9% | 3.0–6.4% |
| 19–21 February 2023 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
4.9% | 4.2–5.8% | 4.0–6.1% | 3.8–6.3% | 3.5–6.8% |
| 2–14 February 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.8% | 2.2–3.7% | 2.1–3.9% | 1.9–4.1% | 1.7–4.5% |
| 2–3 February 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.2% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.3–4.3% | 2.0–4.7% |
| 20–25 January 2023 | Red C Business Post |
3.9% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
| 5–17 January 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.5% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.6–3.7% | 1.4–4.1% |
| 5–6 January 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.2% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.2–4.3% | 2.0–4.7% |
| 24 November–6 December 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3.7% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–5.0% | 2.7–5.2% | 2.4–5.7% |
| 1–2 December 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.8% | 2.3–3.5% | 2.2–3.7% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.8–4.2% |
| 18–23 November 2022 | Red C Business Post |
3.8% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.3% |
| 27 October–8 November 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.9% | 2.2–3.7% | 2.1–3.9% | 1.9–4.1% | 1.7–4.5% |
| 4 November 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| 23–25 October 2022 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
3.1% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.4–4.0% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.0–4.6% |
| 3–15 October 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes Sunday Times |
2.7% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.9% | 1.9–4.1% | 1.7–4.5% |
| 1 October 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.5% | 2.0–3.1% | 1.9–3.3% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.8% |
| 1–6 September 2022 | Red C Business Post |
3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
| 25 August–6 September 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes Sunday Times |
2.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2 September 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.4% | 2.7–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.4–4.8% | 2.1–5.2% |
| 6 August 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.7% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.6–4.5% |
| 10–12 July 2022 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
4.3% | 3.7–5.2% | 3.5–5.4% | 3.3–5.6% | 3.0–6.1% |
| 1 July 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.2% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.2–4.3% | 2.0–4.7% |
| 17–22 June 2022 | Red C Business Post |
4.1% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
| 25 May–7 June 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.5% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.6–3.7% | 1.4–4.1% |
| 4 June 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.3% | 2.1–3.2% | 1.9–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% | 1.6–4.0% |
| 20–25 May 2022 | Red C Business Post |
3.8% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.3% |
| 28 April–10 May 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.6–4.5% |
| 7 May 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.9% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| 22–27 April 2022 | Red C Business Post |
3.5% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.2% |
| 1 April 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.2% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.2–4.3% | 2.0–4.7% |
| 18–23 March 2022 | Red C Business Post |
3.8% | 3.0–4.6% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.7–5.1% | 2.4–5.5% |
| 24 February–8 March 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.9% | 1.9–4.1% | 1.7–4.5% |
| 4 March 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| 18–23 February 2022 | Red C Business Post |
3.8% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.3% |
| 27 January–8 February 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.8% | 2.2–3.7% | 2.1–3.9% | 1.9–4.1% | 1.7–4.5% |
| 5 February 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.2% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.2–4.3% | 2.0–4.8% |
| 21–26 January 2022 | Red C Business Post |
3.8% | 3.0–4.6% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.7–5.1% | 2.4–5.5% |
| 6–18 January 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3.1% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.1–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| 8 January 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.9% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.1–3.6% | 2.0–3.8% | 1.8–4.1% |
| 12 December 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.6–4.5% |
| 5–8 December 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
3.5% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.3–4.3% | 2.1–4.7% |
| 25 November–8 December 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3.1% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.9% | 1.9–4.1% | 1.7–4.5% |
| 19–25 November 2021 | Red C Business Post |
3.8% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.0–4.9% |
| 14 November 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
2.2% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.2–3.8% |
| 28 October–9 November 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.8% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.6% | 1.7–3.8% | 1.4–4.2% |
| 22 October 2021 | Red C Business Post |
3.2% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| 16 October 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
2.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30 September–12 October 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–5 October 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
3.1% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.4–4.0% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.0–4.6% |
| 18 September 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
2.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–9 September 2021 | Red C Business Post |
3.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26 August–8 September 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21 August 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
2.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17 July 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
2.3% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% |
| 1–13 July 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| 26 June 2021 | Red C Business Post |
3.8% | 3.1–4.6% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.7–5.1% | 2.4–5.5% |
| 19 June 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
3.2% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.4–4.0% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.0–4.5% |
| 14–15 June 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
2.5% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.9–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% | 1.5–3.9% |
| 28 May–8 June 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.6–4.5% |
| 21–27 May 2021 | Red C Business Post |
3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.2–4.3% | 2.0–4.8% |
| 4–18 May 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.4% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.6% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.4–4.2% |
| 15 May 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
2.9% | 2.3–3.5% | 2.2–3.7% | 2.0–3.9% | 1.8–4.3% |
| 16–22 April 2021 | Red C Business Post |
3.9% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.5–4.7% | 2.2–5.2% |
| 14–15 April 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
3.2% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.2–4.3% | 2.0–4.8% |
| 19–25 March 2021 | Red C Business Post |
3.9% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.3% |
| 20 March 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
2.6% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| 18–25 February 2021 | Red C Business Post |
3.9% | 3.0–4.6% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.7–5.1% | 2.4–5.5% |
| 22–23 February 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
4.4% | 3.7–5.2% | 3.5–5.4% | 3.3–5.6% | 3.0–6.1% |
| 12 February 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
3.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.8–4.5% |
| 21–28 January 2021 | Red C Business Post |
3.2% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| 17 January 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
2.6% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.5–3.1% | 1.3–3.5% |
| 3–15 December 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.4% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.5–3.2% | 1.4–3.4% | 1.2–3.8% |
| 29 November 2020 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
2.9% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| 19–25 November 2020 | Red C Business Post |
2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| 24 October 2020 | Red C Business Post |
2.9% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| 17 October 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1.9% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.5% | 1.0–2.7% | 0.8–3.0% |
| 3–6 October 2020 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
2.5% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.9–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% | 1.5–3.9% |
| 26 September 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
2.2% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.5–3.1% | 1.3–3.5% |
| 4–15 September 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.9% | 1.9–4.1% | 1.6–4.5% |
| 9 September 2020 | Red C Business Post |
3.5% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| 21–22 August 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% |
| 17–28 July 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3.0% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.4% | 1.8–4.8% |
| 17–18 July 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
3.2% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| 19–20 June 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.8% |
| 14 June 2020 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
3.4% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.3–4.3% | 2.1–4.7% |
| 21–27 May 2020 | Red C Business Post |
2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| 19–23 May 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
1.9% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.0–3.3% |
| 23–29 April 2020 | Red C Business Post |
2.5% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.7–3.6% | 1.4–4.0% |
| 20–25 March 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1.5% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
| 27 February–10 March 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3.6% | 2.7–4.3% | 2.6–4.6% | 2.4–4.8% | 2.1–5.3% |
| 17–25 February 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3.8% | 3.0–4.6% | 2.8–4.9% | 2.7–5.2% | 2.4–5.6% |
| 16 February 2020 | Amárach Research Extra.ie |
3.2% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.2–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| 27 January–2 February 2020 | Survation Sinn Féin |
3.7% | 3.1–4.6% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.7–5.0% | 2.5–5.5% |
| 30 January–1 February 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.8% |
| 25–30 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4.7% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
| 24–30 January 2020 | Panelbase The Times |
3.9% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| 1–25 January 2020 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
3.5% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.2% |
| 16–23 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4.7% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–6.0% | 3.6–6.2% | 3.2–6.7% |
| 16–18 January 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
4.1% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.1–5.4% | 2.8–5.8% |
| 4–14 January 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3.4% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.2% |
| 24 December 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
4.4% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.9% |
| 5–17 December 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2.5% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.2% |
| 14–21 November 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4.4% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.5–5.6% | 3.3–5.9% | 3.0–6.4% |
| 1–12 November 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3.4% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% | 0.1–1.2% |
| 17–24 October 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4.7% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–6.0% | 3.6–6.2% | 3.2–6.7% |
| 3–15 October 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3.1% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
| 11–13 October 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
4.7% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.6–5.5% | 3.4–5.7% | 3.1–6.2% |
| 5–17 September 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3.1% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
| 5–12 September 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3.9% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| 4–16 July 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3.1% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% | 1.7–3.8% | 1.5–4.2% |
| 31 May–11 June 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4.4% | 3.4–5.1% | 3.2–5.4% | 3.0–5.6% | 2.7–6.1% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 2% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 33% | 98% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 51% | 64% | Median |
| 6.5–7.5% | 12% | 13% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 24 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| 6–7 April 2024 | Ireland Thinks The Journal |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| 16–21 February 2024 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 2–7 February 2024 | Ireland Thinks The Journal |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| 2–6 February 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1–2 February 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
|||||
| 19–24 January 2024 | Red C Business Post |
|||||
| 6 January 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
|||||
| 1–2 December 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17–22 November 2023 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2–3 November 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20–25 October 2023 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28–29 September 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 September 2023 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7–12 September 2023 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 August–12 September 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 August–1 September 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4–5 August 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 June–12 July 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 June–1 July 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 June 2023 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16–21 June 2023 | Red C Business Post |
|||||
| 11–13 June 2023 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 June 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19–24 May 2023 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 April–9 May 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5–6 May 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21–26 April 2023 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 March–4 April 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 March–1 April 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17–22 March 2023 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4–14 March 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 March 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17–22 February 2023 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19–21 February 2023 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2–14 February 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2–3 February 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20–25 January 2023 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5–17 January 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5–6 January 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 November–6 December 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1–2 December 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18–23 November 2022 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 October–8 November 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 November 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23–25 October 2022 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3–15 October 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 October 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1–6 September 2022 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 August–6 September 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes Sunday Times |
|||||
| 2 September 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 August 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10–12 July 2022 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 July 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17–22 June 2022 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 May–7 June 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 June 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20–25 May 2022 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 April–10 May 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 May 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22–27 April 2022 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 April 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18–23 March 2022 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 February–8 March 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 March 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18–23 February 2022 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 January–8 February 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 February 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21–26 January 2022 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6–18 January 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 January 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 December 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5–8 December 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 November–8 December 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19–25 November 2021 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 November 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 October–9 November 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 October 2021 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 October 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
|||||
| 30 September–12 October 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
|||||
| 2–5 October 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 September 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
|||||
| 3–9 September 2021 | Red C Business Post |
|||||
| 26 August–8 September 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
|||||
| 21 August 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
|||||
| 17 July 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1–13 July 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 June 2021 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 June 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14–15 June 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 May–8 June 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21–27 May 2021 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4–18 May 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 May 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16–22 April 2021 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14–15 April 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19–25 March 2021 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 March 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18–25 February 2021 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22–23 February 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 February 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21–28 January 2021 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 January 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3–15 December 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 November 2020 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19–25 November 2020 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 October 2020 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 October 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3–6 October 2020 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 September 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4–15 September 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 September 2020 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21–22 August 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17–28 July 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17–18 July 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19–20 June 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 June 2020 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21–27 May 2020 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19–23 May 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23–29 April 2020 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20–25 March 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 February–10 March 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17–25 February 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 February 2020 | Amárach Research Extra.ie |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 January–2 February 2020 | Survation Sinn Féin |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 January–1 February 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 25–30 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24–30 January 2020 | Panelbase The Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1–25 January 2020 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16–23 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16–18 January 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4–14 January 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 December 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5–17 December 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14–21 November 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1–12 November 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17–24 October 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3–15 October 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11–13 October 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5–17 September 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5–12 September 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4–16 July 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 May–11 June 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 5% | |
| 2 | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |