Fine Gael (EPP)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 7 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 18.2% | 16.1–19.9% | 15.6–20.3% | 15.2–20.7% | 14.4–21.4% |
| 5 June 2026 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
19.0% | 17.8–20.3% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.2–21.0% | 16.6–21.6% |
| 22–27 May 2026 | RED C Business Post |
17.0% | 15.6–18.6% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.8–19.5% | 14.2–20.3% |
| 1 May 2026 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
17.0% | 15.9–18.2% | 15.6–18.5% | 15.3–18.9% | 14.8–19.4% |
| 17–22 April 2026 | RED C Business Post |
16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–3 April 2026 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–25 March 2026 | RED C Business Post |
18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27 February 2026 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
16.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–19 February 2026 | RED C Business Post |
18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3 February 2026 | Ipsos B&A The Irish Times |
17.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30 January 2026 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–21 January 2026 | RED C Business Post |
18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19 December 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–5 December 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26 November 2025 | RED C Business Post |
17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 31 October 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21 October 2025 | RED C Business Post |
19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–15 October 2025 | Ipsos B&A The Irish Times |
18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–3 October 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
21.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–9 September 2025 | RED C Business Post |
19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5 September 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
21.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1 August 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
20.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 15 July 2025 | Ipsos B&A The Irish Times |
17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4 July 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
20.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25 June 2025 | RED C Business Post |
18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30 May 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
21.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22 May 2025 | RED C Business Post |
19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–2 May 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
20.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–23 April 2025 | RED C Business Post |
20.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17 April 2025 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–4 April 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
20.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26 March 2025 | RED C Business Post |
17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28 February 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
22.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19 February 2025 | RED C Business Post |
20.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 31 January–1 February 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
20.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22 January 2025 | RED C Business Post |
20.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–11 January 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
22.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–26 November 2024 | RED C Business Post |
20.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–23 November 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–22 November 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
22.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–13 November 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
23.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–13 November 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
25.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–7 November 2024 | RED C Business Post |
22.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–2 November 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
26.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–23 October 2024 | RED C Business Post |
22.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–22 October 2024 | RED C Business Post |
22.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–16 October 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
24.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4 October 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
25.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–19 September 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
24.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14–17 September 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
27.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–10 September 2024 | RED C Business Post |
23.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 31 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
25.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 29–30 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
25.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
24.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5 July 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
24.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26 June 2024 | RED C Business Post |
21.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Fine Gael (EPP).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 12% | 95% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 19% | 83% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 24% | 64% | Median |
| 18.5–19.5% | 24% | 40% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 13% | 16% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 7 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 5 June 2026 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 22–27 May 2026 | RED C Business Post |
3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 1 May 2026 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 17–22 April 2026 | RED C Business Post |
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| 2–3 April 2026 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 20–25 March 2026 | RED C Business Post |
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| 27 February 2026 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 13–19 February 2026 | RED C Business Post |
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| 3 February 2026 | Ipsos B&A The Irish Times |
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| 30 January 2026 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 16–21 January 2026 | RED C Business Post |
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| 19 December 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 4–5 December 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 26 November 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 31 October 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 21 October 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 13–15 October 2025 | Ipsos B&A The Irish Times |
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| 2–3 October 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 4–9 September 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 5 September 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 1 August 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 15 July 2025 | Ipsos B&A The Irish Times |
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| 4 July 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 25 June 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 30 May 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 22 May 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 1–2 May 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 18–23 April 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 17 April 2025 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
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| 3–4 April 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 26 March 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 28 February 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 19 February 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 31 January–1 February 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 22 January 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 10–11 January 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 22–26 November 2024 | RED C Business Post |
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| 20–23 November 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
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| 21–22 November 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 7–13 November 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
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| 12–13 November 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
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| 1–7 November 2024 | RED C Business Post |
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| 1–2 November 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 18–23 October 2024 | RED C Business Post |
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| 16–22 October 2024 | RED C Business Post |
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| 10–16 October 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
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| 4 October 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 13–19 September 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
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| 14–17 September 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
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| 5–10 September 2024 | RED C Business Post |
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| 31 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 29–30 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 2 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 5 July 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 26 June 2024 | RED C Business Post |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Fine Gael (EPP).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 42% | 93% | |
| 4 | 51% | 51% | Median |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |