Fine Gael (EPP)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 22.3% (General Election of 24 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 20.8% | 19.3–22.3% | 19.0–22.7% | 18.6–23.1% | 18.0–23.8% |
| 6–7 April 2024 | Ireland Thinks The Journal |
20.8% | 19.3–22.3% | 18.9–22.7% | 18.6–23.1% | 18.0–23.8% |
| 16–21 February 2024 | Red C Business Post |
21.2% | 19.6–23.0% | 19.1–23.5% | 18.7–23.9% | 18.0–24.8% |
| 2–7 February 2024 | Ireland Thinks The Journal |
19.6% | 18.2–21.1% | 17.8–21.5% | 17.4–21.9% | 16.8–22.6% |
| 2–6 February 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
19.6% | 18.2–21.2% | 17.8–21.6% | 17.4–22.0% | 16.8–22.8% |
| 1–2 February 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
19.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–24 January 2024 | Red C Business Post |
21.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6 January 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
20.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–2 December 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
21.7% | 19.4–22.3% | 19.0–22.8% | 18.7–23.1% | 18.1–23.9% |
| 17–22 November 2023 | Red C Business Post |
21.0% | 18.6–21.5% | 18.2–22.0% | 17.8–22.3% | 17.1–23.1% |
| 2–3 November 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
21.8% | 19.6–22.4% | 19.2–22.8% | 18.9–23.2% | 18.3–23.9% |
| 20–25 October 2023 | Red C Business Post |
21.0% | 18.5–21.7% | 18.1–22.2% | 17.7–22.6% | 17.0–23.4% |
| 28–29 September 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
19.8% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.2–20.9% | 16.9–21.3% | 16.2–22.1% |
| 26 September 2023 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
18.3% | 16.6–19.5% | 16.2–19.9% | 15.9–20.3% | 15.3–21.0% |
| 7–12 September 2023 | Red C Business Post |
21.8% | 19.6–22.9% | 19.1–23.4% | 18.8–23.8% | 18.0–24.6% |
| 31 August–12 September 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
20.5% | 18.6–22.0% | 18.1–22.5% | 17.7–23.0% | 17.0–23.9% |
| 31 August–1 September 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
22.1% | 20.0–23.0% | 19.6–23.4% | 19.2–23.8% | 18.5–24.6% |
| 4–5 August 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
19.8% | 17.7–20.5% | 17.3–20.9% | 17.0–21.3% | 16.3–22.0% |
| 28 June–12 July 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
19.3% | 17.4–20.8% | 17.0–21.3% | 16.6–21.7% | 15.9–22.6% |
| 30 June–1 July 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
19.9% | 17.5–20.6% | 17.1–21.0% | 16.7–21.4% | 16.0–22.2% |
| 23 June 2023 | Red C Business Post |
22.9% | 20.4–23.8% | 20.0–24.3% | 19.6–24.7% | 18.8–25.6% |
| 16–21 June 2023 | Red C Business Post |
22.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–13 June 2023 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
18.7% | 16.6–19.5% | 16.2–19.9% | 15.9–20.3% | 15.3–21.0% |
| 2 June 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
20.8% | 18.4–21.4% | 17.9–21.8% | 17.6–22.2% | 16.9–23.0% |
| 19–24 May 2023 | Red C Business Post |
21.0% | 18.4–21.7% | 18.0–22.1% | 17.6–22.6% | 16.9–23.4% |
| 27 April–9 May 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
17.4% | 15.5–18.7% | 15.1–19.2% | 14.7–19.6% | 14.0–20.4% |
| 5–6 May 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
20.8% | 18.6–21.6% | 18.2–22.0% | 17.8–22.4% | 17.1–23.2% |
| 21–26 April 2023 | Red C Business Post |
23.0% | 20.4–23.8% | 20.0–24.3% | 19.6–24.7% | 18.9–25.6% |
| 28 March–4 April 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
15.4% | 13.7–16.8% | 13.3–17.3% | 13.0–17.7% | 12.3–18.5% |
| 31 March–1 April 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
23.2% | 20.7–23.9% | 20.2–24.4% | 19.9–24.8% | 19.1–25.6% |
| 17–22 March 2023 | Red C Business Post |
23.1% | 20.4–23.7% | 19.9–24.2% | 19.5–24.7% | 18.8–25.5% |
| 4–14 March 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
23.8% | 21.3–24.8% | 20.8–25.4% | 20.4–25.8% | 19.6–26.7% |
| 3 March 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
22.6% | 19.5–22.6% | 19.1–23.0% | 18.7–23.4% | 18.1–24.2% |
| 17–22 February 2023 | Red C Business Post |
21.7% | 19.4–22.8% | 19.0–23.3% | 18.6–23.7% | 17.9–24.5% |
| 19–21 February 2023 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
22.1% | 20.3–23.3% | 19.9–23.8% | 19.5–24.2% | 18.8–25.0% |
| 2–14 February 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
23.4% | 21.3–24.9% | 20.8–25.4% | 20.4–25.8% | 19.6–26.8% |
| 2–3 February 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
22.7% | 20.6–23.6% | 20.1–24.1% | 19.8–24.5% | 19.1–25.2% |
| 20–25 January 2023 | Red C Business Post |
22.0% | 19.4–22.7% | 19.0–23.2% | 18.6–23.7% | 17.9–24.5% |
| 5–17 January 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
19.3% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.0–21.2% | 16.6–21.7% | 15.9–22.5% |
| 5–6 January 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
25.6% | 23.4–26.7% | 22.9–27.2% | 22.5–27.6% | 21.8–28.5% |
| 24 November–6 December 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
23.1% | 21.3–24.8% | 20.8–25.3% | 20.4–25.8% | 19.6–26.7% |
| 1–2 December 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
23.7% | 21.4–24.3% | 21.0–24.7% | 20.6–25.1% | 20.0–25.8% |
| 18–23 November 2022 | Red C Business Post |
24.8% | 22.5–26.0% | 22.1–26.5% | 21.6–27.0% | 20.9–27.8% |
| 27 October–8 November 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
21.3% | 19.4–22.8% | 18.9–23.3% | 18.5–23.8% | 17.7–24.7% |
| 4 November 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
21.4% | 19.2–22.5% | 18.7–23.0% | 18.4–23.4% | 17.6–24.2% |
| 23–25 October 2022 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
22.3% | 20.3–23.3% | 19.9–23.8% | 19.5–24.2% | 18.8–25.0% |
| 3–15 October 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes Sunday Times |
21.3% | 19.3–22.7% | 18.8–23.2% | 18.4–23.7% | 17.7–24.6% |
| 1 October 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
21.5% | 19.6–22.5% | 19.1–22.9% | 18.8–23.3% | 18.1–24.1% |
| 1–6 September 2022 | Red C Business Post |
18.6% | 16.5–19.7% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.8–20.5% | 15.1–21.3% |
| 25 August–6 September 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes Sunday Times |
20.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2 September 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
21.5% | 19.2–22.6% | 18.7–23.1% | 18.3–23.5% | 17.6–24.4% |
| 6 August 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
22.2% | 19.9–23.4% | 19.4–23.9% | 19.0–24.3% | 18.3–25.2% |
| 10–12 July 2022 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
18.1% | 16.5–19.3% | 16.1–19.7% | 15.8–20.1% | 15.1–20.8% |
| 1 July 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
22.5% | 20.5–23.6% | 20.0–24.1% | 19.7–24.5% | 18.9–25.3% |
| 17–22 June 2022 | Red C Business Post |
19.6% | 17.7–20.9% | 17.3–21.4% | 16.9–21.8% | 16.2–22.6% |
| 25 May–7 June 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
22.8% | 20.9–24.5% | 20.5–25.1% | 20.0–25.5% | 19.3–26.4% |
| 4 June 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
20.8% | 19.0–21.9% | 18.6–22.4% | 18.2–22.8% | 17.6–23.5% |
| 20–25 May 2022 | Red C Business Post |
20.6% | 18.6–21.9% | 18.2–22.3% | 17.8–22.8% | 17.1–23.6% |
| 28 April–10 May 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
19.4% | 17.5–20.8% | 17.0–21.3% | 16.6–21.7% | 15.9–22.6% |
| 7 May 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
23.7% | 21.6–25.0% | 21.1–25.5% | 20.7–26.0% | 20.0–26.8% |
| 22–27 April 2022 | Red C Business Post |
21.9% | 19.4–22.7% | 19.0–23.2% | 18.6–23.6% | 17.9–24.5% |
| 1 April 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
22.8% | 20.2–23.4% | 19.8–23.9% | 19.4–24.3% | 18.7–25.1% |
| 18–23 March 2022 | Red C Business Post |
19.8% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.0–21.1% | 16.7–21.5% | 16.0–22.4% |
| 24 February–8 March 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
24.2% | 22.3–25.9% | 21.8–26.4% | 21.4–26.9% | 20.6–27.8% |
| 4 March 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
21.6% | 19.0–22.3% | 18.6–22.8% | 18.2–23.2% | 17.5–24.0% |
| 18–23 February 2022 | Red C Business Post |
20.6% | 18.6–21.9% | 18.2–22.4% | 17.8–22.8% | 17.1–23.6% |
| 27 January–8 February 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
20.3% | 18.3–21.7% | 17.9–22.2% | 17.5–22.7% | 16.8–23.5% |
| 5 February 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
23.9% | 21.4–24.7% | 21.0–25.2% | 20.6–25.6% | 19.9–26.5% |
| 21–26 January 2022 | Red C Business Post |
21.8% | 19.4–22.7% | 18.9–23.2% | 18.6–23.6% | 17.8–24.5% |
| 6–18 January 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
22.1% | 20.2–23.7% | 19.8–24.3% | 19.4–24.7% | 18.6–25.6% |
| 8 January 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
23.8% | 21.6–24.5% | 21.2–25.0% | 20.9–25.3% | 20.2–26.1% |
| 12 December 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
25.7% | 23.3–26.9% | 22.8–27.5% | 22.4–27.9% | 21.6–28.8% |
| 5–8 December 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
20.3% | 18.7–21.7% | 18.3–22.2% | 18.0–22.5% | 17.3–23.3% |
| 25 November–8 December 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
20.4% | 18.5–21.9% | 18.1–22.4% | 17.7–22.8% | 16.9–23.7% |
| 19–25 November 2021 | Red C Business Post |
22.9% | 20.9–24.2% | 20.4–24.7% | 20.0–25.2% | 19.2–26.0% |
| 14 November 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
24.8% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.8–26.4% | 21.4–26.8% | 20.6–27.7% |
| 28 October–9 November 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
21.5% | 19.5–23.0% | 19.0–23.5% | 18.6–23.9% | 17.9–24.8% |
| 22 October 2021 | Red C Business Post |
26.3% | 23.3–26.8% | 22.8–27.3% | 22.4–27.8% | 21.6–28.7% |
| 16 October 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
26.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30 September–12 October 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
21.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–5 October 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
22.3% | 20.3–23.3% | 19.9–23.8% | 19.5–24.2% | 18.8–25.0% |
| 18 September 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
24.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–9 September 2021 | Red C Business Post |
29.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26 August–8 September 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
23.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21 August 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
25.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17 July 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
26.0% | 23.3–26.8% | 22.8–27.3% | 22.4–27.8% | 21.6–28.6% |
| 1–13 July 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
25.2% | 23.3–26.8% | 22.8–27.3% | 22.4–27.8% | 21.6–28.6% |
| 26 June 2021 | Red C Business Post |
31.0% | 28.2–31.9% | 27.7–32.4% | 27.3–32.9% | 26.4–33.8% |
| 19 June 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
24.7% | 22.3–25.4% | 21.9–25.8% | 21.5–26.2% | 20.8–27.0% |
| 14–15 June 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
27.4% | 25.4–28.7% | 25.0–29.2% | 24.6–29.6% | 23.8–30.4% |
| 28 May–8 June 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
24.7% | 22.2–25.9% | 21.7–26.4% | 21.3–26.9% | 20.5–27.8% |
| 21–27 May 2021 | Red C Business Post |
30.2% | 27.3–30.9% | 26.7–31.4% | 26.3–31.9% | 25.5–32.8% |
| 4–18 May 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
28.4% | 26.2–30.0% | 25.6–30.5% | 25.2–31.0% | 24.3–32.0% |
| 15 May 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
26.4% | 23.4–26.6% | 23.0–27.1% | 22.6–27.5% | 21.9–28.3% |
| 16–22 April 2021 | Red C Business Post |
31.3% | 28.5–32.2% | 28.0–32.8% | 27.6–33.2% | 26.7–34.2% |
| 14–15 April 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
27.3% | 24.4–27.8% | 23.9–28.3% | 23.5–28.7% | 22.7–29.6% |
| 19–25 March 2021 | Red C Business Post |
31.2% | 28.5–32.2% | 28.0–32.8% | 27.5–33.2% | 26.7–34.2% |
| 20 March 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
28.6% | 25.3–28.8% | 24.8–29.4% | 24.4–29.8% | 23.6–30.7% |
| 18–25 February 2021 | Red C Business Post |
30.4% | 27.2–30.9% | 26.7–31.4% | 26.3–31.9% | 25.4–32.8% |
| 22–23 February 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
30.7% | 28.3–31.7% | 27.9–32.2% | 27.5–32.7% | 26.7–33.5% |
| 12 February 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
27.3% | 25.1–28.6% | 24.6–29.1% | 24.2–29.5% | 23.4–30.4% |
| 21–28 January 2021 | Red C Business Post |
30.2% | 27.2–30.9% | 26.7–31.4% | 26.3–31.9% | 25.4–32.8% |
| 17 January 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
29.1% | 26.7–30.0% | 26.3–30.5% | 25.9–30.9% | 25.1–31.7% |
| 3–15 December 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
27.2% | 25.3–29.1% | 24.8–29.7% | 24.4–30.2% | 23.5–31.1% |
| 29 November 2020 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
28.8% | 26.0–29.5% | 25.5–30.0% | 25.0–30.5% | 24.2–31.4% |
| 19–25 November 2020 | Red C Business Post |
34.1% | 31.1–34.9% | 30.6–35.5% | 30.1–36.0% | 29.3–36.9% |
| 24 October 2020 | Red C Business Post |
37.9% | 35.1–39.0% | 34.5–39.6% | 34.0–40.0% | 33.2–41.0% |
| 17 October 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
31.6% | 29.5–33.4% | 28.9–33.9% | 28.5–34.4% | 27.6–35.4% |
| 3–6 October 2020 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
35.6% | 33.3–36.8% | 32.8–37.3% | 32.3–37.8% | 31.5–38.6% |
| 26 September 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
33.3% | 30.3–33.7% | 29.9–34.2% | 29.5–34.6% | 28.7–35.5% |
| 4–15 September 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
30.1% | 28.0–31.9% | 27.5–32.5% | 27.0–33.0% | 26.1–33.9% |
| 9 September 2020 | Red C Business Post |
36.1% | 33.5–37.4% | 33.0–37.9% | 32.5–38.4% | 31.6–39.4% |
| 21–22 August 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
36.4% | 33.1–37.0% | 32.6–37.5% | 32.1–38.0% | 31.2–39.0% |
| 17–28 July 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
28.3% | 26.3–30.1% | 25.8–30.6% | 25.3–31.1% | 24.4–32.1% |
| 17–18 July 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
38.9% | 36.1–40.0% | 35.5–40.6% | 35.0–41.1% | 34.1–42.0% |
| 19–20 June 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
34.5% | 31.8–35.7% | 31.3–36.2% | 30.8–36.7% | 29.9–37.6% |
| 14 June 2020 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
37.0% | 35.6–39.2% | 35.1–39.7% | 34.6–40.1% | 33.8–41.0% |
| 21–27 May 2020 | Red C Business Post |
36.1% | 33.1–37.0% | 32.6–37.5% | 32.1–38.0% | 31.2–39.0% |
| 19–23 May 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
36.8% | 34.1–37.9% | 33.5–38.5% | 33.1–39.0% | 32.2–39.9% |
| 23–29 April 2020 | Red C Business Post |
35.9% | 33.2–37.0% | 32.6–37.5% | 32.2–38.0% | 31.3–39.0% |
| 20–25 March 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
34.8% | 32.2–35.9% | 31.6–36.4% | 31.2–36.9% | 30.3–37.8% |
| 27 February–10 March 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
21.2% | 19.5–23.0% | 19.0–23.5% | 18.6–23.9% | 17.9–24.8% |
| 17–25 February 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
18.3% | 16.4–19.7% | 16.0–20.2% | 15.6–20.6% | 14.9–21.5% |
| 16 February 2020 | Amárach Research Extra.ie |
18.7% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.0% | 15.8–20.4% | 15.1–21.2% |
| 27 January–2 February 2020 | Survation Sinn Féin |
17.4% | 15.6–18.6% | 15.2–19.0% | 14.9–19.4% | 14.3–20.2% |
| 30 January–1 February 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
20.3% | 18.6–21.6% | 18.2–22.0% | 17.8–22.4% | 17.2–23.1% |
| 25–30 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
21.5% | 19.8–23.1% | 19.4–23.6% | 19.0–24.1% | 18.2–24.9% |
| 24–30 January 2020 | Panelbase The Times |
19.8% | 19.8–23.1% | 19.4–23.6% | 19.0–24.1% | 18.2–24.9% |
| 1–25 January 2020 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
22.5% | 22.8–26.4% | 22.3–26.9% | 21.9–27.4% | 21.1–28.3% |
| 16–23 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
23.5% | 21.4–24.8% | 20.9–25.3% | 20.5–25.7% | 19.7–26.6% |
| 16–18 January 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
23.4% | 21.5–24.6% | 21.1–25.1% | 20.7–25.5% | 20.0–26.3% |
| 4–14 January 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
20.2% | 20.6–24.1% | 20.1–24.6% | 19.7–25.1% | 18.9–25.9% |
| 24 December 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
28.7% | 30.8–33.8% | 30.4–34.3% | 30.0–34.7% | 29.3–35.4% |
| 5–17 December 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
27.2% | 27.2–31.0% | 26.7–31.6% | 26.2–32.1% | 25.4–33.0% |
| 14–21 November 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
30.5% | 28.2–31.9% | 27.7–32.4% | 27.2–32.9% | 26.4–33.9% |
| 1–12 November 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
27.4% | 28.1–32.0% | 27.6–32.6% | 27.1–33.1% | 26.2–34.0% |
| 17–24 October 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
32.5% | 30.1–33.9% | 29.6–34.5% | 29.2–35.0% | 28.3–35.9% |
| 3–15 October 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
29.2% | 30.1–34.0% | 29.5–34.6% | 29.0–35.1% | 28.1–36.1% |
| 11–13 October 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
29.2% | 27.7–31.1% | 27.2–31.6% | 26.8–32.0% | 26.0–32.8% |
| 5–17 September 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
26.2% | 26.8–30.7% | 26.3–31.2% | 25.8–31.7% | 24.9–32.7% |
| 5–12 September 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
29.2% | 31.1–34.9% | 30.6–35.5% | 30.1–36.0% | 29.3–36.9% |
| 4–16 July 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
26.2% | 24.7–28.5% | 24.2–29.1% | 23.8–29.5% | 22.9–30.5% |
| 31 May–11 June 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
23.2% | 21.5–25.1% | 21.0–25.6% | 20.6–26.1% | 19.8–27.0% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Fine Gael (EPP).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 11% | 98% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 28% | 86% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 33% | 58% | Median |
| 21.5–22.5% | 19% | 25% | Last Result |
| 22.5–23.5% | 5% | 6% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 4 seats (General Election of 24 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 3 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 6–7 April 2024 | Ireland Thinks The Journal |
3 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 16–21 February 2024 | Red C Business Post |
4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 2–7 February 2024 | Ireland Thinks The Journal |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 |
| 2–6 February 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 1–2 February 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 19–24 January 2024 | Red C Business Post |
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| 6 January 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 1–2 December 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| 17–22 November 2023 | Red C Business Post |
4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 2–3 November 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 20–25 October 2023 | Red C Business Post |
4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 28–29 September 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 26 September 2023 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 7–12 September 2023 | Red C Business Post |
4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 31 August–12 September 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| 31 August–1 September 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 4–5 August 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2 | 2 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 28 June–12 July 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| 30 June–1 July 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| 23 June 2023 | Red C Business Post |
5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 16–21 June 2023 | Red C Business Post |
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| 11–13 June 2023 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 2 June 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 19–24 May 2023 | Red C Business Post |
3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 27 April–9 May 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 5–6 May 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| 21–26 April 2023 | Red C Business Post |
4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| 28 March–4 April 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 31 March–1 April 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 17–22 March 2023 | Red C Business Post |
4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| 4–14 March 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 3 March 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 17–22 February 2023 | Red C Business Post |
3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 19–21 February 2023 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| 2–14 February 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 |
| 2–3 February 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 20–25 January 2023 | Red C Business Post |
4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 5–17 January 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 5–6 January 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 24 November–6 December 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 1–2 December 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 18–23 November 2022 | Red C Business Post |
4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 27 October–8 November 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 4 November 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| 23–25 October 2022 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–5 |
| 3–15 October 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes Sunday Times |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 |
| 1 October 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| 1–6 September 2022 | Red C Business Post |
2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| 25 August–6 September 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes Sunday Times |
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| 2 September 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 6 August 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 10–12 July 2022 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 1 July 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| 17–22 June 2022 | Red C Business Post |
3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 25 May–7 June 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 4 June 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| 20–25 May 2022 | Red C Business Post |
3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| 28 April–10 May 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 7 May 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 22–27 April 2022 | Red C Business Post |
4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 1 April 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 18–23 March 2022 | Red C Business Post |
2 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 24 February–8 March 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 4 March 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| 18–23 February 2022 | Red C Business Post |
2 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| 27 January–8 February 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 5 February 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 21–26 January 2022 | Red C Business Post |
4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 6–18 January 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 8 January 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 12 December 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 5–8 December 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| 25 November–8 December 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 19–25 November 2021 | Red C Business Post |
4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 14 November 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 28 October–9 November 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 22 October 2021 | Red C Business Post |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 16 October 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
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| 30 September–12 October 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
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| 2–5 October 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 18 September 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
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| 3–9 September 2021 | Red C Business Post |
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| 26 August–8 September 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
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| 21 August 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
|||||
| 17 July 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 1–13 July 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 26 June 2021 | Red C Business Post |
5 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 19 June 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 14–15 June 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 28 May–8 June 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 21–27 May 2021 | Red C Business Post |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 4–18 May 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 15 May 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 |
| 16–22 April 2021 | Red C Business Post |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| 14–15 April 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 19–25 March 2021 | Red C Business Post |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 |
| 20 March 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 18–25 February 2021 | Red C Business Post |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 22–23 February 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| 12 February 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 |
| 21–28 January 2021 | Red C Business Post |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 17 January 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 3–15 December 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 29 November 2020 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 |
| 19–25 November 2020 | Red C Business Post |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5–7 |
| 24 October 2020 | Red C Business Post |
7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 17 October 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 3–6 October 2020 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
5 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| 26 September 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5–6 |
| 4–15 September 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| 9 September 2020 | Red C Business Post |
6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 21–22 August 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
5 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| 17–28 July 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5 | 5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 17–18 July 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 19–20 June 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
5 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 14 June 2020 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 21–27 May 2020 | Red C Business Post |
5 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 19–23 May 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 23–29 April 2020 | Red C Business Post |
6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 20–25 March 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| 27 February–10 March 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 17–25 February 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 16 February 2020 | Amárach Research Extra.ie |
2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| 27 January–2 February 2020 | Survation Sinn Féin |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 30 January–1 February 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| 25–30 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| 24–30 January 2020 | Panelbase The Times |
2 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 1–25 January 2020 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 16–23 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 16–18 January 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
4 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 4–14 January 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| 24 December 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 5–17 December 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–6 |
| 14–21 November 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 1–12 November 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| 17–24 October 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 3–15 October 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5–6 |
| 11–13 October 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| 5–17 September 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 5–12 September 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
5 | 5 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| 4–16 July 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 31 May–11 June 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Fine Gael (EPP).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 66% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 22% | 34% | Last Result |
| 5 | 12% | 12% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |