Social Democrats (S&D)

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 7 June 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 5.8% 4.8–6.9% 4.5–7.2% 4.3–7.5% 3.9–8.0%
22–26 November 2024 Red C
Business Post
6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
20–23 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times
6.0% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.8–7.5% 4.4–8.0%
21–22 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
5.0% 4.3–5.8% 4.1–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.7–6.7%
7–13 November 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times
6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
12–13 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times
4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
1–7 November 2024 Red C
Business Post
6.0% 5.2–6.9% 4.9–7.2% 4.8–7.5% 4.4–7.9%
1–2 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.6%
18–23 October 2024 Red C
Business Post
5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
16–22 October 2024 Red C
Business Post
5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
10–16 October 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times
5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
4 October 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
5.9% 5.2–6.8% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.3% 4.5–7.8%
13–19 September 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times
5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
14–17 September 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times
4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
5–10 September 2024 Red C
Business Post
6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
31 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.8–5.5%
29–30 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.6–6.0%
2 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
5.0% 4.3–5.8% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.2% 3.6–6.7%
5 July 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.5%
26 June 2024 Red C
Business Post
5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Social Democrats (S&D).

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 0% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 0.1% 100%  
3.5–4.5% 6% 99.9%  
4.5–5.5% 32% 94%  
5.5–6.5% 43% 62% Median
6.5–7.5% 17% 19%  
7.5–8.5% 2% 2%  
8.5–9.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
9.5–10.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 7 June 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
22–26 November 2024 Red C
Business Post
0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
20–23 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times
0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
21–22 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
0 0 0 0 0–1
7–13 November 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times
0 0 0 0–1 0–2
12–13 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times
0 0 0 0 0
1–7 November 2024 Red C
Business Post
1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
1–2 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
18–23 October 2024 Red C
Business Post
0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
16–22 October 2024 Red C
Business Post
0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
10–16 October 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times
0 0 0 0 0–1
4 October 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
0 0 0–1 0–2 0–2
13–19 September 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times
0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
14–17 September 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times
0 0 0 0 0
5–10 September 2024 Red C
Business Post
0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
31 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
0 0 0 0 0
29–30 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
2 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
5 July 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
0 0 0 0 0
26 June 2024 Red C
Business Post
0 0 0 0 0–1

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Social Democrats (S&D).

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 12%  
2 1.3% 1.3%  
3 0% 0%