Social Democrats (S&D)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 7 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 6.9% | 4.7–8.5% | 4.4–8.8% | 4.2–9.1% | 3.8–9.7% |
| 13–15 October 2025 | Ipsos B&A The Irish Times |
5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.8% |
| 2–3 October 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
8.0% | 7.2–9.0% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.3–10.0% |
| 4–9 September 2025 | RED C Business Post |
7.0% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.1–9.3% |
| 5 September 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
7.0% | 6.2–7.9% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.5–8.9% |
| 1 August 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
8.0% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.9–9.4% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.3–10.2% |
| 15 July 2025 | Ipsos B&A The Irish Times |
6.0% | 5.2–7.0% | 5.0–7.3% | 4.8–7.5% | 4.4–8.0% |
| 4 July 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
8.0% | 7.2–9.0% | 7.0–9.3% | 6.8–9.5% | 6.4–10.0% |
| 25 June 2025 | RED C Business Post |
7.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30 May 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
9.0% | 8.2–9.9% | 8.0–10.2% | 7.8–10.4% | 7.4–10.8% |
| 22 May 2025 | RED C Business Post |
7.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–2 May 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
8.0% | 7.2–8.9% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.8–9.4% | 6.4–9.9% |
| 18–23 April 2025 | RED C Business Post |
7.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17 April 2025 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
7.0% | 6.1–8.0% | 5.9–8.3% | 5.7–8.6% | 5.3–9.1% |
| 3–4 April 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
7.9% | 7.2–8.7% | 7.0–9.0% | 6.8–9.2% | 6.5–9.6% |
| 26 March 2025 | RED C Business Post |
7.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28 February 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
7.0% | 6.2–8.0% | 5.9–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.4–9.0% |
| 19 February 2025 | RED C Business Post |
7.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 31 January–1 February 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
8.0% | 7.2–8.9% | 6.9–9.2% | 6.7–9.4% | 6.4–9.9% |
| 22 January 2025 | RED C Business Post |
7.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–11 January 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
7.3% | 6.4–8.4% | 6.2–8.6% | 6.0–8.9% | 5.6–9.4% |
| 22–26 November 2024 | RED C Business Post |
6.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–23 November 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
6.0% | 5.2–7.0% | 5.0–7.3% | 4.8–7.5% | 4.4–8.0% |
| 21–22 November 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
5.0% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.1–6.1% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.7–6.7% |
| 7–13 November 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 12–13 November 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.7% |
| 1–7 November 2024 | RED C Business Post |
6.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–2 November 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
6.0% | 5.3–6.8% | 5.2–7.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.7–7.6% |
| 18–23 October 2024 | RED C Business Post |
5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–22 October 2024 | RED C Business Post |
5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–16 October 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| 4 October 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
5.9% | 5.2–6.8% | 5.0–7.1% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.5–7.8% |
| 13–19 September 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 14–17 September 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.7% |
| 5–10 September 2024 | RED C Business Post |
6.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 31 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.8–5.5% |
| 29–30 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
4.0% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.6–6.0% |
| 2 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
5.0% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.1–6.0% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.6–6.7% |
| 5 July 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.5% |
| 26 June 2024 | RED C Business Post |
5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Social Democrats (S&D).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 20% | 93% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 16% | 73% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 23% | 58% | Median |
| 7.5–8.5% | 25% | 34% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 8% | 9% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 7 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 13–15 October 2025 | Ipsos B&A The Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2–3 October 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| 4–9 September 2025 | RED C Business Post |
0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 5 September 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 1 August 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
1 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| 15 July 2025 | Ipsos B&A The Irish Times |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 4 July 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
1 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 25 June 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 30 May 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 22 May 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 1–2 May 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 18–23 April 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 17 April 2025 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 3–4 April 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 26 March 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 28 February 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 19 February 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 31 January–1 February 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
1 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 22 January 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 10–11 January 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 22–26 November 2024 | RED C Business Post |
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| 20–23 November 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 21–22 November 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 7–13 November 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| 12–13 November 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1–7 November 2024 | RED C Business Post |
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| 1–2 November 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| 18–23 October 2024 | RED C Business Post |
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| 16–22 October 2024 | RED C Business Post |
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| 10–16 October 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 4 October 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 13–19 September 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 14–17 September 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5–10 September 2024 | RED C Business Post |
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| 31 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 29–30 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 2 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 5 July 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 June 2024 | RED C Business Post |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Social Democrats (S&D).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 54% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 32% | 46% | |
| 2 | 14% | 14% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |