Poll Average
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Summary
The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 30 days old) registered and analyzed so far.
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | FG | FF | I | SF | Lab | S-PBP | GP | IA | RI | SD | I4C | Aon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May 2019 | General Election | 22.3% 4 |
22.3% 1 |
19.8% 3 |
19.5% 3 |
5.3% 0 |
1.5% 0 |
4.9% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
| N/A | Poll Average | 19–23% 3–5 |
16–20% 2–4 |
11–14% 1 |
22–26% 3–6 |
2–4% 0 |
2–4% 0 |
5–8% 0–1 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
5–7% 0–1 |
4–6% 0 |
| 6–7 April 2024 | Ireland Thinks The Journal |
19–23% 3–5 |
16–20% 2–4 |
11–14% 1 |
22–26% 3–6 |
2–4% 0 |
2–4% 0 |
5–8% 0–1 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
5–7% 0–1 |
4–7% 0 |
| 24 May 2019 | General Election | 22.3% 4 |
22.3% 1 |
19.8% 3 |
19.5% 3 |
5.3% 0 |
1.5% 0 |
4.9% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.
Legend:
- Top half of each row: Voting intentions (95% confidence interval)
- Bottom half of each row: Seat projections for the European Parliament (95% confidence interval)
- FG: Fine Gael (EPP)
- FF: Fianna Fáil (RE)
- I: Independents (*)
- SF: Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)
- Lab: Labour Party (S&D)
- S-PBP: Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)
- GP: Green Party (Greens/EFA)
- IA: Independent Alliance (*)
- RI: Renua Ireland (*)
- SD: Social Democrats (S&D)
- I4C: Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)
- Aon: Aontú (*)
- N/A (single party): Party not included the published results
- N/A (entire row): Calculation for this opinion poll not started yet
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 22.3% | 20.8% | 19.3–22.3% | 19.0–22.7% | 18.6–23.1% | 18.0–23.8% |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 22.3% | 17.7% | 16.4–19.1% | 16.0–19.5% | 15.7–19.9% | 15.1–20.6% |
| Independents (*) | 19.8% | 12.4% | 11.2–13.6% | 10.9–14.0% | 10.6–14.3% | 10.1–14.9% |
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 19.5% | 23.9% | 22.4–25.5% | 22.0–25.9% | 21.6–26.3% | 20.9–27.1% |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.3–4.3% | 2.1–4.6% |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.4–7.2% | 5.2–7.4% | 5.0–7.7% | 4.7–8.2% |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 1.5% | 3.2% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.3–4.3% | 2.1–4.6% |
| Independent Alliance (*) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Renua Ireland (*) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.7–2.4% |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 5.8% | 5.0–6.7% | 4.8–6.9% | 4.6–7.2% | 4.3–7.6% |
| Aontú (*) | 0.0% | 5.2% | 4.5–6.1% | 4.3–6.3% | 4.1–6.5% | 3.8–7.0% |
Fianna Fáil (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 12% | 98% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 30% | 87% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 34% | 57% | Median |
| 18.5–19.5% | 18% | 22% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 4% | 5% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Fine Gael (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 11% | 98% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 28% | 86% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 33% | 58% | Median |
| 21.5–22.5% | 19% | 25% | Last Result |
| 22.5–23.5% | 5% | 6% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 0% | 0% |
Independents (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 2% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 16% | 98% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 39% | 82% | Median |
| 12.5–13.5% | 32% | 43% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 10% | 11% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 20.5–21.5% | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 10% | 98% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 25% | 88% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 32% | 62% | Median |
| 24.5–25.5% | 21% | 30% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 8% | 9% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 8% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 68% | 92% | Median |
| 3.5–4.5% | 23% | 24% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 0% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 14% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 5.5–6.5% | 53% | 86% | Median |
| 6.5–7.5% | 30% | 33% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 4% | 4% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2.5–3.5% | 68% | 92% | Median |
| 3.5–4.5% | 23% | 24% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 0% |
Social Democrats (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 69% | 100% | Median |
| 1.5–2.5% | 31% | 31% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 0% |
Aontú (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 13% | 99.9% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 56% | 87% | Median |
| 5.5–6.5% | 29% | 31% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 2% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 33% | 98% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 51% | 64% | Median |
| 6.5–7.5% | 12% | 13% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 4 | 3 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 1 | 4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Independents (*) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) | 3 | 6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Labour Party (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Independent Alliance (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Renua Ireland (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Social Democrats (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Aontú (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fine Gael (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 66% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 22% | 34% | Last Result |
| 5 | 12% | 12% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 9% | 92% | |
| 4 | 83% | 83% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Independents (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 7% | 97% | |
| 5 | 16% | 90% | |
| 6 | 74% | 74% | Median |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 9% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Independent Alliance (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Alliance (*) page.
Renua Ireland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renua Ireland (*) page.
Social Democrats (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 5% | |
| 2 | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Aontú (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aontú (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fine Gael (EPP) | 4 | 3 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Fianna Fáil (RE) | 1 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Green Party (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Labour Party (S&D) – Social Democrats (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fine Gael (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 66% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 22% | 34% | Last Result |
| 5 | 12% | 12% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Fianna Fáil (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 9% | 92% | |
| 4 | 83% | 83% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 9% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party (S&D) – Social Democrats (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
- Number of polls included in this average: 1
- Lowest number of simulations done in a poll included in this average: 2,097,152
- Total number of simulations done in the polls included in this average: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.16%