Independents (*)

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 7 June 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%
5 June 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 2.6% 2.1–3.2% 2.0–3.3% 1.9–3.5% 1.7–3.8%
22–27 May 2026 RED C
Business Post		 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 1.9–4.8%
1 May 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 2.6% 2.2–3.2% 2.0–3.3% 2.0–3.4% 1.8–3.7%
17–22 April 2026 RED C
Business Post		 3.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–3 April 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 2.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–25 March 2026 RED C
Business Post		 3.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
27 February 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 2.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13–19 February 2026 RED C
Business Post		 3.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 February 2026 Ipsos B&A
The Irish Times		 4.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
30 January 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 2.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–21 January 2026 RED C
Business Post		 3.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19 December 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 3.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–5 December 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 2.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26 November 2025 RED C
Business Post		 4.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
31 October 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 2.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
21 October 2025 RED C
Business Post		 3.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13–15 October 2025 Ipsos B&A
The Irish Times		 4.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–3 October 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 3.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–9 September 2025 RED C
Business Post		 3.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 September 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 3.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 August 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 3.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
15 July 2025 Ipsos B&A
The Irish Times		 4.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 July 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 3.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
25 June 2025 RED C
Business Post		 3.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
30 May 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 2.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22 May 2025 RED C
Business Post		 3.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–2 May 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 2.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
18–23 April 2025 RED C
Business Post		 2.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
17 April 2025 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		 3.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–4 April 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 2.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26 March 2025 RED C
Business Post		 3.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
28 February 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 3.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19 February 2025 RED C
Business Post		 3.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
31 January–1 February 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 2.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22 January 2025 RED C
Business Post		 3.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–11 January 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 2.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22–26 November 2024 RED C
Business Post		 3.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–23 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		 4.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
21–22 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 3.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–13 November 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times		 4.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–13 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		 4.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–7 November 2024 RED C
Business Post		 4.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–2 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 3.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
18–23 October 2024 RED C
Business Post		 4.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–22 October 2024 RED C
Business Post		 4.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–16 October 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times		 4.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 October 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 3.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13–19 September 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times		 4.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
14–17 September 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		 3.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–10 September 2024 RED C
Business Post		 4.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
31 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 3.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
29–30 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 3.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 3.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 July 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 4.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26 June 2024 RED C
Business Post		 4.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Independents (*).

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 27% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 60% 73% Median
3.5–4.5% 12% 12%  
4.5–5.5% 0.5% 0.5%  
5.5–6.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 7 June 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 0 0 0 0 0
5 June 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 0 0 0 0 0
22–27 May 2026 RED C
Business Post		 0 0 0 0 0
1 May 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		 0 0 0 0 0
17–22 April 2026 RED C
Business Post		          
2–3 April 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
20–25 March 2026 RED C
Business Post		          
27 February 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
13–19 February 2026 RED C
Business Post		          
3 February 2026 Ipsos B&A
The Irish Times		          
30 January 2026 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
16–21 January 2026 RED C
Business Post		          
19 December 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
4–5 December 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
26 November 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
31 October 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
21 October 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
13–15 October 2025 Ipsos B&A
The Irish Times		          
2–3 October 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
4–9 September 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
5 September 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
1 August 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
15 July 2025 Ipsos B&A
The Irish Times		          
4 July 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
25 June 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
30 May 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
22 May 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
1–2 May 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
18–23 April 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
17 April 2025 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		          
3–4 April 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
26 March 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
28 February 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
19 February 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
31 January–1 February 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
22 January 2025 RED C
Business Post		          
10–11 January 2025 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
22–26 November 2024 RED C
Business Post		          
20–23 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		          
21–22 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
7–13 November 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times		          
12–13 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		          
1–7 November 2024 RED C
Business Post		          
1–2 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
18–23 October 2024 RED C
Business Post		          
16–22 October 2024 RED C
Business Post		          
10–16 October 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times		          
4 October 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
13–19 September 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times		          
14–17 September 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times		          
5–10 September 2024 RED C
Business Post		          
31 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
29–30 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
2 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
5 July 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent		          
26 June 2024 RED C
Business Post		          

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Independents (*).

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median