Independents (*)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 7 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 3.8% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.7–5.2% | 2.6–5.4% | 2.3–5.9% |
| 13–15 October 2025 | Ipsos B&A The Irish Times |
4.4% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.6–5.5% | 3.4–5.7% | 3.1–6.2% |
| 2–3 October 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.1% | 2.6–3.8% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.1–4.5% |
| 4–9 September 2025 | RED C Business Post |
3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.7% |
| 5 September 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.4% | 2.9–4.1% | 2.7–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.4–4.8% |
| 1 August 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.9% | 3.3–4.6% | 3.1–4.9% | 2.9–5.1% | 2.7–5.5% |
| 15 July 2025 | Ipsos B&A The Irish Times |
4.5% | 3.8–5.4% | 3.6–5.6% | 3.5–5.8% | 3.2–6.3% |
| 4 July 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.1% | 2.6–3.8% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.1–4.5% |
| 25 June 2025 | RED C Business Post |
3.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30 May 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.6% | 2.2–3.1% | 2.0–3.3% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.8–3.7% |
| 22 May 2025 | RED C Business Post |
3.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–2 May 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.7–3.2% | 1.6–3.5% |
| 18–23 April 2025 | RED C Business Post |
2.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17 April 2025 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
3.8% | 3.1–4.6% | 3.0–4.8% | 2.8–5.0% | 2.5–5.4% |
| 3–4 April 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.3% | 1.9–2.8% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.6–3.3% |
| 26 March 2025 | RED C Business Post |
3.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28 February 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.1% | 2.6–3.8% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.1–4.6% |
| 19 February 2025 | RED C Business Post |
3.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 31 January–1 February 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.3% | 1.9–2.9% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.7–3.2% | 1.5–3.5% |
| 22 January 2025 | RED C Business Post |
3.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–11 January 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
2.2% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.5–3.2% | 1.3–3.6% |
| 22–26 November 2024 | RED C Business Post |
3.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–23 November 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
4.2% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.1–5.4% | 2.8–5.8% |
| 21–22 November 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.9% | 3.3–4.6% | 3.1–4.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.7–5.4% |
| 7–13 November 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
4.3% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.9–6.2% |
| 12–13 November 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
4.2% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.1–5.4% | 2.8–5.8% |
| 1–7 November 2024 | RED C Business Post |
4.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–2 November 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.5% | 3.0–4.1% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.7–4.5% | 2.5–4.8% |
| 18–23 October 2024 | RED C Business Post |
4.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–22 October 2024 | RED C Business Post |
4.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–16 October 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
4.6% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.4–5.9% | 3.0–6.4% |
| 4 October 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.3% | 2.7–3.9% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.2–4.7% |
| 13–19 September 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
| 14–17 September 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
3.3% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.5–4.2% | 2.4–4.4% | 2.1–4.8% |
| 5–10 September 2024 | RED C Business Post |
4.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 31 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.9% | 3.3–4.6% | 3.1–4.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.7–5.4% |
| 29–30 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.9% | 3.1–4.8% | 2.9–5.0% | 2.8–5.3% | 2.5–5.7% |
| 2 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
3.7% | 3.1–4.4% | 2.9–4.6% | 2.8–4.8% | 2.5–5.2% |
| 5 July 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
4.1% | 3.5–4.8% | 3.3–5.1% | 3.2–5.2% | 2.9–5.6% |
| 26 June 2024 | RED C Business Post |
4.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Independents (*).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 2% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 34% | 98% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 43% | 64% | Median |
| 4.5–5.5% | 19% | 21% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 7 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13–15 October 2025 | Ipsos B&A The Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2–3 October 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4–9 September 2025 | RED C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 September 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 August 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 July 2025 | Ipsos B&A The Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 July 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 June 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 30 May 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 May 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 1–2 May 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18–23 April 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 17 April 2025 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3–4 April 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 March 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 28 February 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 February 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 31 January–1 February 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 January 2025 | RED C Business Post |
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| 10–11 January 2025 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22–26 November 2024 | RED C Business Post |
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| 20–23 November 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21–22 November 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7–13 November 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12–13 November 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1–7 November 2024 | RED C Business Post |
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| 1–2 November 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18–23 October 2024 | RED C Business Post |
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| 16–22 October 2024 | RED C Business Post |
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| 10–16 October 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 October 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13–19 September 2024 | Opinions The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14–17 September 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5–10 September 2024 | RED C Business Post |
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| 31 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 29–30 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 August 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 July 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 June 2024 | RED C Business Post |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Independents (*).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |