Independents (*)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 19.8% (General Election of 24 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 12.4% | 11.2–13.6% | 10.9–14.0% | 10.6–14.3% | 10.1–14.9% |
| 6–7 April 2024 | Ireland Thinks The Journal |
12.3% | 11.2–13.6% | 10.9–14.0% | 10.6–14.3% | 10.1–14.9% |
| 16–21 February 2024 | Red C Business Post |
11.1% | 9.9–12.6% | 9.6–13.0% | 9.3–13.3% | 8.7–14.0% |
| 2–7 February 2024 | Ireland Thinks The Journal |
13.1% | 11.9–14.4% | 11.6–14.8% | 11.3–15.1% | 10.7–15.7% |
| 2–6 February 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
11.6% | 10.5–12.9% | 10.2–13.3% | 9.9–13.6% | 9.4–14.2% |
| 1–2 February 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
12.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–24 January 2024 | Red C Business Post |
12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6 January 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–2 December 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
9.4% | 8.1–10.1% | 7.8–10.4% | 7.6–10.7% | 7.2–11.3% |
| 17–22 November 2023 | Red C Business Post |
11.1% | 9.5–11.8% | 9.2–12.1% | 8.9–12.5% | 8.5–13.1% |
| 2–3 November 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
7.6% | 6.4–8.3% | 6.2–8.5% | 6.0–8.8% | 5.7–9.3% |
| 20–25 October 2023 | Red C Business Post |
8.9% | 7.4–9.7% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.9–10.3% | 6.4–10.9% |
| 28–29 September 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
8.2% | 7.0–9.0% | 6.8–9.3% | 6.5–9.6% | 6.1–10.2% |
| 26 September 2023 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
12.1% | 10.8–13.2% | 10.5–13.6% | 10.2–13.9% | 9.7–14.5% |
| 7–12 September 2023 | Red C Business Post |
9.1% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| 31 August–12 September 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.7% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.5% | 4.6–7.8% | 4.2–8.3% |
| 31 August–1 September 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
8.2% | 5.9–7.8% | 5.7–8.1% | 5.5–8.3% | 5.1–8.8% |
| 4–5 August 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
6.9% | 5.8–7.6% | 5.5–7.9% | 5.4–8.1% | 5.0–8.6% |
| 28 June–12 July 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.8% | 5.6–7.8% | 5.4–8.1% | 5.2–8.4% | 4.7–9.0% |
| 30 June–1 July 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
9.0% | 7.6–9.8% | 7.3–10.2% | 7.1–10.5% | 6.6–11.1% |
| 23 June 2023 | Red C Business Post |
9.6% | 8.2–10.6% | 7.9–11.0% | 7.7–11.3% | 7.2–11.9% |
| 16–21 June 2023 | Red C Business Post |
9.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–13 June 2023 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
9.6% | 8.2–10.4% | 8.0–10.7% | 7.7–11.0% | 7.3–11.6% |
| 2 June 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
8.9% | 7.6–9.7% | 7.3–10.0% | 7.0–10.3% | 6.6–10.9% |
| 19–24 May 2023 | Red C Business Post |
9.0% | 7.6–9.8% | 7.3–10.2% | 7.0–10.5% | 6.6–11.1% |
| 27 April–9 May 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
8.1% | 6.9–9.2% | 6.6–9.6% | 6.4–9.9% | 5.9–10.5% |
| 5–6 May 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
8.2% | 7.0–9.0% | 6.7–9.3% | 6.5–9.6% | 6.1–10.2% |
| 21–26 April 2023 | Red C Business Post |
9.5% | 8.2–10.5% | 7.9–10.9% | 7.6–11.2% | 7.1–11.8% |
| 28 March–4 April 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.2% | 4.5–6.5% | 4.3–6.8% | 4.1–7.1% | 3.7–7.6% |
| 31 March–1 April 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
7.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.6–8.1% | 5.4–8.4% | 5.0–8.9% |
| 17–22 March 2023 | Red C Business Post |
9.7% | 8.2–10.5% | 7.9–10.9% | 7.6–11.2% | 7.1–11.9% |
| 4–14 March 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.0% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.6–7.6% | 4.2–8.2% |
| 3 March 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
7.0% | 5.8–7.7% | 5.5–8.0% | 5.3–8.2% | 5.0–8.7% |
| 17–22 February 2023 | Red C Business Post |
9.5% | 8.2–10.6% | 7.9–11.0% | 7.7–11.3% | 7.2–11.9% |
| 19–21 February 2023 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
10.6% | 9.4–11.7% | 9.1–12.1% | 8.9–12.4% | 8.4–13.0% |
| 2–14 February 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.1% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.2–8.3% |
| 2–3 February 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
6.9% | 5.8–7.6% | 5.5–7.9% | 5.3–8.2% | 5.0–8.7% |
| 20–25 January 2023 | Red C Business Post |
8.4% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.4–9.8% | 6.0–10.4% |
| 5–17 January 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.3% | 4.5–6.4% | 4.3–6.7% | 4.1–7.0% | 3.7–7.5% |
| 5–6 January 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
6.8% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.5–8.0% | 5.3–8.2% | 4.9–8.8% |
| 24 November–6 December 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
8.0% | 6.9–9.2% | 6.6–9.5% | 6.3–9.8% | 5.9–10.5% |
| 1–2 December 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
6.1% | 5.2–6.8% | 5.0–7.1% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.4–7.8% |
| 18–23 November 2022 | Red C Business Post |
8.1% | 6.4–8.6% | 6.2–8.9% | 5.9–9.2% | 5.5–9.8% |
| 27 October–8 November 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.1% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.2–8.3% |
| 4 November 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
6.6% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.2–8.3% | 4.8–8.9% |
| 23–25 October 2022 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
6.6% | 5.7–7.6% | 5.5–7.9% | 5.3–8.1% | 4.9–8.6% |
| 3–15 October 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes Sunday Times |
6.0% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.6% | 4.2–8.2% |
| 1 October 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
5.4% | 4.6–6.2% | 4.4–6.5% | 4.2–6.7% | 3.9–7.2% |
| 1–6 September 2022 | Red C Business Post |
8.2% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.4–9.8% | 6.0–10.4% |
| 25 August–6 September 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes Sunday Times |
5.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2 September 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
7.3% | 6.2–8.4% | 6.0–8.8% | 5.7–9.1% | 5.3–9.7% |
| 6 August 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
6.0% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.7–7.3% | 4.5–7.5% | 4.1–8.1% |
| 10–12 July 2022 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
9.1% | 8.2–10.3% | 7.9–10.7% | 7.7–10.9% | 7.2–11.5% |
| 1 July 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
6.8% | 5.8–7.7% | 5.5–8.0% | 5.3–8.2% | 4.9–8.7% |
| 17–22 June 2022 | Red C Business Post |
8.8% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.1–10.5% |
| 25 May–7 June 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.2% | 4.4–6.3% | 4.1–6.6% | 3.9–6.9% | 3.6–7.4% |
| 4 June 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
6.9% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.5–6.6% | 4.3–6.9% | 4.0–7.4% |
| 20–25 May 2022 | Red C Business Post |
8.2% | 6.4–8.6% | 6.1–8.9% | 5.9–9.2% | 5.5–9.8% |
| 28 April–10 May 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.0% | 5.0–7.1% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.2–8.3% |
| 7 May 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
6.2% | 4.6–6.4% | 4.3–6.7% | 4.1–7.0% | 3.8–7.5% |
| 22–27 April 2022 | Red C Business Post |
7.5% | 6.3–8.5% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.9–9.1% | 5.4–9.7% |
| 1 April 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
6.8% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.5–8.0% | 5.3–8.2% | 4.9–8.7% |
| 18–23 March 2022 | Red C Business Post |
8.3% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.5–9.8% | 6.0–10.5% |
| 24 February–8 March 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.0% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.2–8.2% |
| 4 March 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
6.1% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.8–7.2% | 4.5–7.5% | 4.2–8.0% |
| 18–23 February 2022 | Red C Business Post |
8.2% | 6.4–8.6% | 6.2–8.9% | 5.9–9.2% | 5.5–9.8% |
| 27 January–8 February 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.1% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.2–8.3% |
| 5 February 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
6.7% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.5–8.0% | 5.3–8.3% | 4.9–8.8% |
| 21–26 January 2022 | Red C Business Post |
8.3% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.5–9.8% | 6.0–10.5% |
| 6–18 January 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.6% | 5.7–7.8% | 5.4–8.2% | 5.2–8.5% | 4.8–9.1% |
| 8 January 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
6.1% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.0–7.1% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.5–7.8% |
| 12 December 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.2–8.2% |
| 5–8 December 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
7.4% | 5.8–7.7% | 5.6–8.0% | 5.4–8.2% | 5.0–8.7% |
| 25 November–8 December 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.4% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.3–8.3% |
| 19–25 November 2021 | Red C Business Post |
8.3% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| 14 November 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
4.8% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–6.0% | 3.5–6.2% | 3.2–6.7% |
| 28 October–9 November 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.2% | 4.5–6.5% | 4.3–6.8% | 4.1–7.0% | 3.7–7.6% |
| 22 October 2021 | Red C Business Post |
6.8% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.2–8.3% | 4.8–8.9% |
| 16 October 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
4.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30 September–12 October 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–5 October 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
6.7% | 5.7–7.6% | 5.5–7.9% | 5.3–8.1% | 4.9–8.6% |
| 18 September 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
4.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–9 September 2021 | Red C Business Post |
7.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26 August–8 September 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21 August 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17 July 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
4.9% | 3.8–5.6% | 3.6–5.8% | 3.5–6.1% | 3.1–6.6% |
| 1–13 July 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.6% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.2–8.3% | 4.8–8.9% |
| 26 June 2021 | Red C Business Post |
8.1% | 7.0–9.1% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.4–9.8% | 6.0–10.4% |
| 19 June 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
6.9% | 5.8–7.6% | 5.5–7.8% | 5.3–8.1% | 5.0–8.6% |
| 14–15 June 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
5.3% | 4.6–6.3% | 4.4–6.5% | 4.2–6.8% | 3.9–7.2% |
| 28 May–8 June 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.2% | 5.0–7.1% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.2–8.3% |
| 21–27 May 2021 | Red C Business Post |
6.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.1% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.9–8.9% |
| 4–18 May 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.3% | 4.4–6.3% | 4.2–6.6% | 4.0–6.9% | 3.6–7.5% |
| 15 May 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
6.3% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.8–7.5% | 4.4–7.9% |
| 16–22 April 2021 | Red C Business Post |
8.1% | 6.5–8.6% | 6.2–8.9% | 6.0–9.2% | 5.5–9.8% |
| 14–15 April 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
6.9% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.5–8.0% | 5.3–8.3% | 4.9–8.8% |
| 19–25 March 2021 | Red C Business Post |
8.2% | 6.4–8.6% | 6.2–8.9% | 5.9–9.2% | 5.5–9.8% |
| 20 March 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
5.5% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.2–6.6% | 4.1–6.8% | 3.7–7.3% |
| 18–25 February 2021 | Red C Business Post |
8.3% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| 22–23 February 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
9.5% | 8.2–10.4% | 8.0–10.7% | 7.7–11.0% | 7.3–11.6% |
| 12 February 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
8.3% | 5.3–7.2% | 5.1–7.5% | 4.9–7.8% | 4.5–8.3% |
| 21–28 January 2021 | Red C Business Post |
6.9% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.2–8.3% | 4.8–8.9% |
| 17 January 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
5.5% | 4.0–5.5% | 3.8–5.8% | 3.6–6.0% | 3.3–6.4% |
| 3–15 December 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.2% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–6.0% | 3.5–6.3% | 3.2–6.8% |
| 29 November 2020 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
6.2% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.3–8.1% |
| 19–25 November 2020 | Red C Business Post |
5.5% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.9% | 3.7–7.4% |
| 24 October 2020 | Red C Business Post |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 17 October 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
3.9% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.5% | 2.3–4.7% | 2.1–5.2% |
| 3–6 October 2020 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
5.3% | 4.6–6.3% | 4.4–6.5% | 4.2–6.8% | 3.9–7.2% |
| 26 September 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
4.7% | 3.9–5.5% | 3.8–5.7% | 3.6–6.0% | 3.3–6.4% |
| 4–15 September 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.9% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.5% | 4.6–7.8% | 4.2–8.3% |
| 9 September 2020 | Red C Business Post |
7.4% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.3–8.4% | 4.9–9.0% |
| 21–22 August 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
4.8% | 3.9–5.6% | 3.6–5.8% | 3.5–6.1% | 3.1–6.6% |
| 17–28 July 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.3% | 5.5–7.6% | 5.2–7.9% | 5.0–8.2% | 4.6–8.8% |
| 17–18 July 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
6.8% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.2–8.3% | 4.8–8.9% |
| 19–20 June 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
6.6% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.2–8.3% | 4.8–8.9% |
| 14 June 2020 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
7.2% | 5.8–7.7% | 5.6–8.0% | 5.4–8.2% | 5.0–8.7% |
| 21–27 May 2020 | Red C Business Post |
5.5% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.9% | 3.7–7.4% |
| 19–23 May 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
4.1% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
| 23–29 April 2020 | Red C Business Post |
5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.9% | 3.7–7.4% |
| 20–25 March 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
3.4% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.5–4.3% | 2.4–4.6% | 2.1–5.0% |
| 27 February–10 March 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
7.8% | 6.3–8.6% | 6.1–8.9% | 5.8–9.2% | 5.4–9.8% |
| 17–25 February 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
8.0% | 6.9–9.2% | 6.6–9.6% | 6.4–9.9% | 5.9–10.5% |
| 16 February 2020 | Amárach Research Extra.ie |
6.8% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.5–8.0% | 5.3–8.3% | 4.9–8.9% |
| 27 January–2 February 2020 | Survation Sinn Féin |
8.0% | 7.0–9.1% | 6.7–9.4% | 6.4–9.7% | 6.0–10.3% |
| 30 January–1 February 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
10.8% | 9.5–11.8% | 9.2–12.1% | 9.0–12.5% | 8.5–13.1% |
| 25–30 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
10.1% | 7.7–10.1% | 7.5–10.4% | 7.2–10.7% | 6.7–11.4% |
| 24–30 January 2020 | Panelbase The Times |
8.2% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| 1–25 January 2020 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
7.5% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.2% |
| 16–23 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
10.1% | 8.8–11.2% | 8.5–11.6% | 8.2–11.9% | 7.7–12.6% |
| 16–18 January 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
8.7% | 7.6–9.7% | 7.3–10.0% | 7.1–10.3% | 6.7–10.9% |
| 4–14 January 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
7.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.2% |
| 24 December 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
9.4% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.9% |
| 5–17 December 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
5.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.2% |
| 14–21 November 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
9.3% | 8.2–10.6% | 7.9–10.9% | 7.7–11.3% | 7.2–11.9% |
| 1–12 November 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
7.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% | 0.1–1.2% |
| 17–24 October 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
10.1% | 8.8–11.2% | 8.5–11.6% | 8.2–11.9% | 7.7–12.6% |
| 3–15 October 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.6% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
| 11–13 October 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
10.0% | 8.4–10.6% | 8.1–10.9% | 7.9–11.2% | 7.4–11.8% |
| 5–17 September 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.6% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.0–1.0% |
| 5–12 September 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
8.5% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
| 4–16 July 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
6.7% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.3–6.8% | 4.1–7.1% | 3.7–7.7% |
| 31 May–11 June 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
9.3% | 7.6–10.0% | 7.3–10.4% | 7.0–10.7% | 6.5–11.4% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Independents (*).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 2% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 16% | 98% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 39% | 82% | Median |
| 12.5–13.5% | 32% | 43% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 10% | 11% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Seats
Last result: 3 seats (General Election of 24 May 2019)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| 6–7 April 2024 | Ireland Thinks The Journal |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| 16–21 February 2024 | Red C Business Post |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| 2–7 February 2024 | Ireland Thinks The Journal |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| 2–6 February 2024 | Ipsos B&A Irish Times |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 1–2 February 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
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| 19–24 January 2024 | Red C Business Post |
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| 6 January 2024 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
|||||
| 1–2 December 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 17–22 November 2023 | Red C Business Post |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2–3 November 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 20–25 October 2023 | Red C Business Post |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| 28–29 September 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 26 September 2023 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7–12 September 2023 | Red C Business Post |
1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 31 August–12 September 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 31 August–1 September 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 4–5 August 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 28 June–12 July 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 30 June–1 July 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 23 June 2023 | Red C Business Post |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 16–21 June 2023 | Red C Business Post |
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| 11–13 June 2023 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 June 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 19–24 May 2023 | Red C Business Post |
1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 27 April–9 May 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 5–6 May 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 21–26 April 2023 | Red C Business Post |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| 28 March–4 April 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 March–1 April 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 17–22 March 2023 | Red C Business Post |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| 4–14 March 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 3 March 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 17–22 February 2023 | Red C Business Post |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| 19–21 February 2023 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2–14 February 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2–3 February 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 20–25 January 2023 | Red C Business Post |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 5–17 January 2023 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5–6 January 2023 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 24 November–6 December 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 1–2 December 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 18–23 November 2022 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 27 October–8 November 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 November 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 23–25 October 2022 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 3–15 October 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 October 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1–6 September 2022 | Red C Business Post |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 25 August–6 September 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes Sunday Times |
|||||
| 2 September 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 6 August 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 10–12 July 2022 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 1 July 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 17–22 June 2022 | Red C Business Post |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 25 May–7 June 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 June 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20–25 May 2022 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 28 April–10 May 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 May 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 22–27 April 2022 | Red C Business Post |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 1 April 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 18–23 March 2022 | Red C Business Post |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 24 February–8 March 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 March 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18–23 February 2022 | Red C Business Post |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 27 January–8 February 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 February 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 21–26 January 2022 | Red C Business Post |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 6–18 January 2022 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 January 2022 | Ireland Thinks Sunday Independent |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 12 December 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 5–8 December 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 25 November–8 December 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19–25 November 2021 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 14 November 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 October–9 November 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 October 2021 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 16 October 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
|||||
| 30 September–12 October 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
|||||
| 2–5 October 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 18 September 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
|||||
| 3–9 September 2021 | Red C Business Post |
|||||
| 26 August–8 September 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
|||||
| 21 August 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
|||||
| 17 July 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1–13 July 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 26 June 2021 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 19 June 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 14–15 June 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 May–8 June 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21–27 May 2021 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 4–18 May 2021 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 May 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 16–22 April 2021 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 14–15 April 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 19–25 March 2021 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 20 March 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18–25 February 2021 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 22–23 February 2021 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 12 February 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 21–28 January 2021 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 17 January 2021 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3–15 December 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 November 2020 | Ireland Thinks Irish Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19–25 November 2020 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 October 2020 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 October 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3–6 October 2020 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 September 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4–15 September 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 September 2020 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 21–22 August 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17–28 July 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 17–18 July 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 19–20 June 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 14 June 2020 | Ipsos MRBI Irish Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 21–27 May 2020 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19–23 May 2020 | Ireland Thinks Mail on Sunday |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23–29 April 2020 | Red C Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20–25 March 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 February–10 March 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 17–25 February 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 16 February 2020 | Amárach Research Extra.ie |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 27 January–2 February 2020 | Survation Sinn Féin |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 30 January–1 February 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 25–30 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 24–30 January 2020 | Panelbase The Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1–25 January 2020 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16–23 January 2020 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| 16–18 January 2020 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 4–14 January 2020 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 December 2019 | Ireland Thinks The Irish Daily Mail |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5–17 December 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14–21 November 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 1–12 November 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17–24 October 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| 3–15 October 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11–13 October 2019 | Ipsos MRBI The Irish Times |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 5–17 September 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5–12 September 2019 | Red C The Sunday Business Post |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4–16 July 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 May–11 June 2019 | Behaviour and Attitudes The Sunday Times |
1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Independents (*).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |