Independents (*)

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 7 June 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 4.1% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
22–26 November 2024 Red C
Business Post
3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.7%
20–23 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times
4.1% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.2% 3.1–5.4% 2.8–5.8%
21–22 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
3.9% 3.3–4.6% 3.1–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.7–5.4%
7–13 November 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times
4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
12–13 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times
4.1% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.2% 3.1–5.4% 2.8–5.8%
1–7 November 2024 Red C
Business Post
4.1% 3.5–5.0% 3.3–5.2% 3.2–5.4% 2.9–5.9%
1–2 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8%
18–23 October 2024 Red C
Business Post
4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.3%
16–22 October 2024 Red C
Business Post
4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
10–16 October 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times
4.5% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.4–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
4 October 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
3.3% 2.7–3.9% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.7%
13–19 September 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times
4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
14–17 September 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times
3.2% 2.7–4.0% 2.5–4.2% 2.4–4.4% 2.1–4.8%
5–10 September 2024 Red C
Business Post
4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
31 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
3.9% 3.3–4.6% 3.1–4.8% 3.0–5.0% 2.7–5.4%
29–30 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
3.8% 3.1–4.8% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.3% 2.5–5.7%
2 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
3.7% 3.1–4.4% 2.9–4.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.5–5.2%
5 July 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
4.1% 3.5–4.8% 3.3–5.1% 3.2–5.2% 2.9–5.6%
26 June 2024 Red C
Business Post
4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Independents (*).

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 0.2% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 18% 99.8%  
3.5–4.5% 59% 82% Median
4.5–5.5% 21% 23%  
5.5–6.5% 2% 2%  
6.5–7.5% 0% 0%  
7.5–8.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 7 June 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 0 0 0 0 0
22–26 November 2024 Red C
Business Post
0 0 0 0 0
20–23 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times
0 0 0 0 0
21–22 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
0 0 0 0 0
7–13 November 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times
0 0 0 0 0
12–13 November 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times
0 0 0 0 0
1–7 November 2024 Red C
Business Post
0 0 0 0 0
1–2 November 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
0 0 0 0 0
18–23 October 2024 Red C
Business Post
0 0 0 0 0
16–22 October 2024 Red C
Business Post
0 0 0 0 0
10–16 October 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times
0 0 0 0 0
4 October 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
0 0 0 0 0
13–19 September 2024 Opinions
The Sunday Times
0 0 0 0 0
14–17 September 2024 Ipsos B&A
Irish Times
0 0 0 0 0
5–10 September 2024 Red C
Business Post
0 0 0 0 0
31 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
0 0 0 0 0
29–30 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
0 0 0 0 0
2 August 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
0 0 0 0 0
5 July 2024 Ireland Thinks
Sunday Independent
0 0 0 0 0
26 June 2024 Red C
Business Post
0 0 0 0 0

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Independents (*).

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median