Opinion Poll by Behaviour and Attitudes for The Sunday Times, 3–15 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 22.3% 32.0% 30.1–34.0% 29.5–34.6% 29.0–35.1% 28.1–36.1%
Fianna Fáil (RE) 22.3% 30.9% 29.0–32.9% 28.4–33.5% 28.0–34.0% 27.0–35.0%
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 19.5% 17.7% 16.1–19.4% 15.7–19.9% 15.3–20.3% 14.6–21.2%
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 4.9% 6.7% 5.7–7.9% 5.4–8.2% 5.2–8.5% 4.8–9.1%
Labour Party (S&D) 5.3% 5.6% 4.7–6.7% 4.4–7.0% 4.2–7.3% 3.9–7.8%
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 1.5% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5% 2.3–4.7% 2.1–5.2%
Independent Alliance (*) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.4–3.4% 1.2–3.8%
Social Democrats (S&D) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.9% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.4%
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%
Independents (*) 19.8% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fine Gael (EPP) 4 5 5 5 5 5–6
Fianna Fáil (RE) 1 5 5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) 3 3 3 3 2–3 2–3
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Labour Party (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independent Alliance (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Social Democrats (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Independents (*) 3 0 0 0 0 0

Fine Gael (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100% Last Result
5 98.6% 99.9% Median
6 1.3% 1.3%  
7 0% 0% Majority

Fianna Fáil (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 6% 100%  
5 92% 94% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0% Majority

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 97% 97% Last Result, Median
4 0% 0%  

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independent Alliance (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Alliance (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Social Democrats (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Independents (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fianna Fáil (RE) 1 5 0% 5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Fine Gael (EPP) 4 5 0% 5 5 5 5–6
Green Party (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0–1 0–1
Labour Party (S&D) – Social Democrats (S&D) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Fianna Fáil (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 6% 100%  
5 92% 94% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0% Majority

Fine Gael (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100% Last Result
5 98.6% 99.9% Median
6 1.3% 1.3%  
7 0% 0% Majority

Green Party (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Labour Party (S&D) – Social Democrats (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations