Opinion Poll by Ipsos MRBI for The Irish Times, 16–18 January 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fianna Fáil (RE) |
22.3% |
25.0% |
23.4–26.7% |
23.0–27.1% |
22.6–27.5% |
21.9–28.3% |
Fine Gael (EPP) |
22.3% |
23.0% |
21.5–24.6% |
21.1–25.1% |
20.7–25.5% |
20.0–26.3% |
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) |
19.5% |
21.0% |
19.5–22.6% |
19.1–23.0% |
18.8–23.4% |
18.1–24.2% |
Independents (*) |
19.8% |
8.6% |
7.6–9.7% |
7.3–10.0% |
7.1–10.3% |
6.7–10.9% |
Green Party (Greens/EFA) |
4.9% |
8.0% |
7.1–9.1% |
6.8–9.4% |
6.6–9.7% |
6.2–10.2% |
Labour Party (S&D) |
5.3% |
5.0% |
4.3–5.9% |
4.1–6.2% |
3.9–6.4% |
3.6–6.8% |
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
4.1% |
3.4–4.9% |
3.2–5.2% |
3.1–5.4% |
2.8–5.8% |
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) |
1.5% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
1.3–3.0% |
1.2–3.3% |
Social Democrats (S&D) |
0.0% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
1.3–3.0% |
1.2–3.3% |
Independent Alliance (*) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.6% |
0.6–1.8% |
0.5–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Fianna Fáil (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fianna Fáil (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
85% |
100% |
Median |
5 |
13% |
15% |
|
6 |
2% |
2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Fine Gael (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fine Gael (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
9% |
100% |
|
4 |
83% |
91% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
7% |
7% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
97% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
2% |
3% |
|
5 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Independents (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
8% |
100% |
|
1 |
92% |
92% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
14% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
86% |
86% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independents 4 Change (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Solidarity–People Before Profit (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Social Democrats (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Social Democrats (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
95% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
5% |
5% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Independent Alliance (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Independent Alliance (*) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Fianna Fáil (RE) |
1 |
4 |
0% |
4–5 |
4–5 |
4–5 |
4–6 |
Fine Gael (EPP) |
4 |
4 |
0% |
4 |
3–5 |
3–5 |
3–5 |
Green Party (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Labour Party (S&D) – Social Democrats (S&D) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
0–1 |
Fianna Fáil (RE)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
85% |
100% |
Median |
5 |
13% |
15% |
|
6 |
2% |
2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Fine Gael (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
9% |
100% |
|
4 |
83% |
91% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
7% |
7% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Green Party (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
14% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
86% |
86% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party (S&D) – Social Democrats (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
95% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
5% |
5% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos MRBI
- Commissioner(s): The Irish Times
- Fieldwork period: 16–18 January 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.27%